2022-02-24 · +7d

gru_s4 · in-sample — the model trained on this date · 151 tokens predicted

These numbers are in-sample. The model was trained on this date, so predicted-vs-actual agreement here is not evidence of skill.

+1d +7d +30d asset cohort only

rank IC

+0.0470

151 of 151 tokens assessed

long-short decile

+1.00%

realised beta-adjusted alpha

direction hit

57.6%

in alpha space · 13.9% on raw price

BTC over horizon

+10.74%

the unhedgeable market factor

Predicted vs actual (151 rows, sorted by pred)

token	name	chain	anchor px	pred px ▴	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d	vol 30d	target
API3	Api3	Ethereum	7.001	6.5903	-5.87%	7.315	+4.49%	0.0665	✗	0.37	2.0M	2022-03-03
AGLD	Adventure Gold	Ethereum	1.187	1.1364	-4.26%	1.176	-0.93%	0.0926	✓	1.24	1.0M	2022-03-03
BRISE	Bitgert	Ethereum	7.02e-7	6.73e-7	-4.15%	6.88e-7	-2.03%	0.0800	✓	1.00	1.4M	2022-03-03
DIA	DIA	Ethereum	1.02	0.988821	-3.06%	1.05	+2.94%	0.0574	✗	0.03	286k	2022-03-03
WBTC	Wrapped Bitcoin	Ethereum	38,311.50	37,254.48	-2.76%	42,572.60	+11.12%	0.0357	✗	0.96	39k	2022-03-03
NMR	Numeraire	Ethereum	30.76	29.9212	-2.73%	30.05	-2.31%	0.1018	✓	1.04	1.6M	2022-03-03
LUNA	Terra	Terra 2	65.24	63.4735	-2.71%	90.56	+38.81%	0.2170	✗	1.36	4.5M	2022-03-03
CERE	Cere Network	Ethereum	0.0281	0.02739	-2.53%	0.0283	+0.71%	0.1182	✓	1.48	513k	2022-03-03
CELL	Cellframe	Ethereum	1.4257	1.3933	-2.27%	1.6497	+15.71%	0.0260	✗	1.40	238k	2022-03-03
ASTR	Astar	Ethereum	0.126	0.123334	-2.12%	0.118	-6.35%	0.1375	✓	0.91	53k	2022-03-03
XMR	Monero	Monero	147	144.0646	-2.00%	172.04	+17.03%	0.0762	✗	0.99	966k	2022-03-03
YFI	yearn.finance	Ethereum	19,425.17	19,047.43	-1.94%	21,698.86	+11.70%	0.0290	✗	0.99	5.7M	2022-03-03
TRB	Tellor Tributes	Ethereum	19.48	19.1308	-1.79%	19.77	+1.49%	0.1280	✓	1.58	334k	2022-03-03
ACH	Alchemy Pay	Ethereum	0.045853	0.045089	-1.67%	0.046937	+2.36%	0.0846	✓	1.22	8.6M	2022-03-03
MOVR	Moonriver	Base	63.0112	61.9654	-1.66%	66.5878	+5.68%	0.0791	✓	1.48	243k	2022-03-03
UMA	UMA	Ethereum	4.785	4.706	-1.65%	9.598	+100.59%	0.6145	✗	0.96	1.9M	2022-03-03
NAKA	Nakamoto Games	Polygon	0.3935	0.387042	-1.64%	0.4722	+20.00%	0.0103	✓	2.05	2.1M	2022-03-03
VSYS	V.SYSTEMS	native	0.01188	0.011693	-1.58%	0.01236	+4.04%	0.0223	✓	0.76	15k	2022-03-03
ATOM	Cosmos Hub	Cosmos	24.86	24.4716	-1.56%	34.01	+36.81%	0.2180	✗	1.09	52.8M	2022-03-03
BAND	Band	Ethereum	3.558	3.5038	-1.52%	3.962	+11.35%	0.0122	✓	1.32	1.9M	2022-03-03
ORBS	Orbs	Ethereum	0.0609	0.059991	-1.49%	0.0725	+19.05%	0.0820	✗	1.05	14k	2022-03-03
POWR	Powerledger	Ethereum	0.4805	0.473464	-1.46%	0.5501	+14.48%	0.0573	✗	0.91	643k	2022-03-03
FTT	FTX	Ethereum	41.3	40.7404	-1.35%	44.86	+8.62%	0.0202	✓	1.14	26.3M	2022-03-03
DODO	DODO	Ethereum	0.423	0.417285	-1.35%	0.448	+5.91%	0.0693	✓	1.38	4.7M	2022-03-03
ORCA	Orca	Solana	2.68	2.6442	-1.34%	2.46	-8.21%	0.1742	✓	1.00	608k	2022-03-03
BNT	Bancor Network	Ethereum	2.19	2.1618	-1.29%	2.38	+8.68%	0.0065	✓	1.01	275k	2022-03-03
LEO	LEO Token	Ethereum	5.718	5.6457	-1.27%	5.6206	-1.70%	0.0459	✓	0.41	433k	2022-03-03
UOS	Ultra	Ethereum	1.1579	1.1433	-1.26%	1.4091	+21.69%	0.0615	✗	1.45	2.6M	2022-03-03
BAT	Basic Attention	Ethereum	0.66022	0.651948	-1.25%	0.7113	+7.74%	0.0654	✓	1.50	246k	2022-03-03
QTUM	Qtum	Qtum	5.8411	5.7693	-1.23%	6.3922	+9.43%	0.0442	✓	1.44	172k	2022-03-03
LSK	Lisk	Ethereum	1.5371	1.5187	-1.20%	2.1075	+37.10%	0.2256	✗	1.00	72k	2022-03-03
XYM	Symbol	native	0.1399	0.138258	-1.17%	0.146	+4.36%	0.0285	✓	0.81	345k	2022-03-03
ICP	Internet Computer	Ethereum	16.6	16.4068	-1.16%	19.97	+20.30%	0.0791	✗	1.15	22.7M	2022-03-03
AMP	Amp	Ethereum	0.02616	0.025858	-1.15%	0.02753	+5.24%	0.0169	✓	0.78	4.4M	2022-03-03
CTK	Shentu	Osmosis	1.104	1.0914	-1.14%	1.174	+6.34%	0.0590	✓	1.29	2.8M	2022-03-03
FIL	Filecoin	Filecoin	18.42	18.2109	-1.14%	20.13	+9.28%	0.0300	✓	1.28	9.4M	2022-03-03
GTC	Gitcoin	Ethereum	5.89	5.8238	-1.12%	6.34	+7.64%	0.0528	✓	1.35	1.3M	2022-03-03
XYO	XYO Network	Ethereum	0.01718	0.016987	-1.12%	0.01877	+9.25%	0.0133	✓	1.11	2.2M	2022-03-03
PEOPLE	ConstitutionDAO	Ethereum	0.0532	0.052622	-1.09%	0.0637	+19.74%	0.0060	✓	1.81	67.8M	2022-03-03
OG	OG Fan Token	Solana	2.747	2.7175	-1.08%	2.941	+7.06%	0.0156	✓	0.93	477k	2022-03-03
LPT	Livepeer	Ethereum	22.41	22.1692	-1.07%	25.18	+12.36%	0.0224	✓	1.47	1.8M	2022-03-03
ALGO	Algorand	Algorand	0.7779	0.769551	-1.07%	0.7967	+2.42%	0.0892	✓	1.21	22.9M	2022-03-03
ZEN	Horizen	Base	34.22	33.8587	-1.06%	38.18	+11.57%	0.0326	✓	1.50	309k	2022-03-03
SUSHI	Sushi	Ethereum	3.14	3.1076	-1.03%	3.3	+5.10%	0.0769	✓	1.34	7.1M	2022-03-03
HIVE	Hive	native	0.8143	0.805907	-1.03%	0.9796	+20.30%	0.0661	✗	1.27	1.8M	2022-03-03
ARPA	ARPA	Ethereum	0.0685	0.067799	-1.02%	0.0725	+5.84%	0.0743	✓	1.39	1.1M	2022-03-03
TRX	TRON	Tron	0.061098	0.060473	-1.02%	0.060032	-1.74%	0.0930	✓	0.84	286k	2022-03-03
RLC	iExec RLC	Ethereum	1.56	1.5442	-1.02%	1.85	+18.59%	0.0447	✗	1.33	2.0M	2022-03-03
MINA	Mina Protocol	native	1.97	1.9504	-1.00%	2.04	+3.55%	0.0794	✓	1.22	343k	2022-03-03
ACM	AC Milan Fan Token	Solana	3.945	3.9057	-1.00%	4.418	+11.99%	0.0390	✗	0.83	414k	2022-03-03
XPR	XPR Network	Ethereum	0.00977	0.009673	-0.99%	0.01199	+22.72%	0.0642	✗	1.48	2.3M	2022-03-03
XEM	NEM	native	0.093	0.092102	-0.97%	0.1029	+10.65%	0.0052	✓	1.04	38k	2022-03-03
ENJ	Enjin Coin	Ethereum	1.36	1.347	-0.95%	1.479	+8.75%	0.0599	✓	1.50	970k	2022-03-03
NCT	PolySwarm	Ethereum	0.03323	0.032916	-0.95%	0.03435	+3.37%	0.0423	✓	0.83	1.6M	2022-03-03
RAD	Radworks	Ethereum	4.44	4.398	-0.95%	5.51	+24.10%	0.1229	✗	1.01	696k	2022-03-03
XLM	Stellar	Stellar	0.182403	0.180686	-0.94%	0.187901	+3.01%	0.0730	✓	1.10	21.4M	2022-03-03
ENS	Ethereum Name Service	Ethereum	13.72	13.5911	-0.94%	14.3	+4.23%	0.1071	✓	1.55	2.7M	2022-03-03
DASH	Dash	Dash	87.88	87.0557	-0.94%	96.75	+10.09%	0.0082	✓	1.12	1.5M	2022-03-03
KNC	Kyber Network Crystal	Ethereum	1.8131	1.7963	-0.93%	2.773	+52.94%	0.3654	✗	0.67	2.7M	2022-03-03
1INCH	1INCH	Ethereum	1.344	1.3317	-0.92%	1.437	+6.92%	0.0438	✓	1.18	1.1M	2022-03-03
LINK	Chainlink	Ethereum	13.27	13.1494	-0.91%	14.89	+12.21%	0.0001	✓	1.22	60.6M	2022-03-03
JUV	Juventus Fan Token	Solana	5.42	5.371	-0.90%	6.33	+16.79%	0.0796	✗	0.83	430k	2022-03-03
AVAX	Avalanche	Avalanche	76.41	75.7204	-0.90%	78.49	+2.72%	0.1172	✓	1.50	106.7M	2022-03-03
MED	Medibloc	Osmosis	0.03686	0.036533	-0.89%	0.03967	+7.62%	0.0275	✓	1.08	31k	2022-03-03
ZEC	Zcash	Zcash	102.72	101.8094	-0.89%	129.17	+25.75%	0.1244	✗	1.11	7.8M	2022-03-03
GRT	The Graph	Ethereum	0.3618	0.358611	-0.88%	0.3647	+0.80%	0.1334	✓	1.47	8.4M	2022-03-03
COMP	Compound	Ethereum	108.77	107.8218	-0.87%	116.89	+7.47%	0.0514	✓	1.30	64k	2022-03-03
IOTA	IOTA	IOTA	0.6953	0.68926	-0.87%	0.7596	+9.25%	0.0138	✓	1.09	9.7M	2022-03-03
SC	Siacoin	native	0.00834	0.008269	-0.85%	0.00902	+8.15%	0.0437	✓	1.28	546k	2022-03-03
MANA	Decentraland	Ethereum	2.5825	2.5608	-0.84%	2.6368	+2.11%	0.1029	✓	1.30	3.3M	2022-03-03
CVC	Civic	Ethereum	0.2371	0.235155	-0.82%	0.2824	+19.11%	0.0428	✗	1.38	469k	2022-03-03
SUN	Sun Token	Tron	0.01147	0.011377	-0.81%	0.011953	+4.21%	0.0640	✓	1.11	37k	2022-03-03
PSG	Paris Saint-Germain Fan Token	Solana	13.97	13.8592	-0.79%	16.42	+17.54%	0.0977	✗	0.70	1.9M	2022-03-03
LRC	Loopring	Ethereum	0.74	0.734178	-0.79%	0.7864	+6.27%	0.0872	✓	1.53	317k	2022-03-03
DNT	district0x	Ethereum	0.0646	0.0641	-0.77%	0.072	+11.46%	0.0100	✗	1.04	176k	2022-03-03
BAR	FC Barcelona Fan Token	Solana	5.03	4.9915	-0.76%	7.63	+51.69%	0.3378	✗	0.85	398k	2022-03-03
MTL	Metal DAO	Metal L2	1.338	1.3278	-0.76%	1.523	+13.83%	0.0166	✗	1.18	1.8M	2022-03-03
ZRX	0x Protocol	Ethereum	0.509766	0.505894	-0.76%	0.534619	+4.88%	0.0656	✓	1.18	3.2M	2022-03-03
ASR	AS Roma Fan Token	Solana	2.481	2.4624	-0.75%	2.882	+16.16%	0.0733	✗	0.82	205k	2022-03-03
MASK	Mask Network	Ethereum	4.24	4.2092	-0.73%	4.42	+4.25%	0.1042	✓	1.50	456k	2022-03-03
AUCTION	Bounce	Ethereum	11.99	11.9031	-0.72%	13.32	+11.09%	0.0078	✗	1.03	369k	2022-03-03
POKT	Pocket Network	Ethereum	0.8008	0.795026	-0.72%	0.865	+8.02%	0.0314	✗	0.52	1.5M	2022-03-03
RIF	Rootstock Infrastructure Framework	Ethereum	0.1304	0.129466	-0.72%	0.1559	+19.56%	0.0803	✗	1.03	446k	2022-03-03
OGN	Origin Token	Ethereum	0.274	0.272045	-0.71%	0.295	+7.66%	0.0593	✓	1.38	2.2M	2022-03-03
CRV	Curve DAO	Ethereum	2.241	2.2251	-0.71%	2.508	+11.91%	0.0343	✓	1.51	13.2M	2022-03-03
SKL	SKALE	Ethereum	0.1205	0.11965	-0.71%	0.1221	+1.33%	0.1128	✓	1.30	3.1M	2022-03-03
NANO	nanopay	Base	1.7738	1.7613	-0.70%	1.868	+5.31%	0.0651	✓	1.21	206k	2022-03-03
KCS	KuCoin	native	18.173	18.0514	-0.67%	19.526	+7.45%	0.0288	✓	1.05	9.6M	2022-03-03
SANTOS	Santos FC Fan Token	Binance Smart Chain	2.188	2.1734	-0.67%	2.873	+31.31%	0.1531	✗	1.24	772k	2022-03-03
QNT	Quant	Ethereum	108.73	108.0128	-0.66%	127.04	+16.84%	0.0581	✗	1.02	6.6M	2022-03-03
BCHSV	Bitcoin Cash SV		81.89	81.3521	-0.66%	83.45	+1.90%	0.0642	✓	0.88	946k	2022-03-03
SUPER	SuperVerse	Ethereum	0.64	0.635834	-0.65%	0.72	+12.50%	0.0692	✓	1.90	1.0M	2022-03-03
PRO	Propy	Ethereum	1.69	1.679	-0.65%	1.92	+13.61%	0.0263	✓	1.57	539k	2022-03-03
DKA	dKargo	Ethereum	0.08206	0.081532	-0.64%	0.09337	+13.78%	0.0228	✗	1.11	47k	2022-03-03
BTC	Bitcoin	Bitcoin	38,347.30	38,102.50	-0.64%	42,464.41	+10.74%	0.0064	✓	1.00	632.3M	2022-03-03
XEC	eCash	native	0.00007114	0.000070694	-0.63%	0.00007449	+4.71%	0.0673	✓	1.17	4.4M	2022-03-03
XTZ	Tezos	Tezos	3.0389	3.0209	-0.59%	3.3937	+11.68%	0.0193	✓	1.33	2.1M	2022-03-03
TWT	Trust Wallet	Binance Smart Chain	0.458	0.455285	-0.59%	0.8058	+75.94%	0.4355	✗	1.33	2.2M	2022-03-03
EWT	Energy Web Token	Ethereum	4.747	4.7189	-0.59%	5.231	+10.20%	0.0196	✗	0.82	65k	2022-03-03
TKO	Tokocrypto	Binance Smart Chain	0.64	0.63634	-0.57%	0.714	+11.56%	0.0027	✓	1.16	2.2M	2022-03-03
CWEB	Coinweb	Ethereum	0.021665	0.021543	-0.56%	0.020258	-6.49%	0.1666	✓	1.03	114k	2022-03-03
LAZIO	Lazio Fan Token	Binance Smart Chain	2.6203	2.606	-0.54%	2.9519	+12.66%	0.0258	✗	0.97	2.3M	2022-03-03
SOL	Solana	Solana	89.41	88.93	-0.54%	95.61	+6.93%	0.0584	✓	1.28	132.7M	2022-03-03
DEXE	DeXe	Ethereum	6.1	6.0674	-0.54%	6.42	+5.25%	0.0162	✗	0.40	1.3M	2022-03-03
AXS	Axie Infinity	Ethereum	48.82	48.5728	-0.51%	53.31	+9.20%	0.0435	✓	1.34	7.5M	2022-03-03
OMG	OMG Network	Ethereum	3.7351	3.7162	-0.50%	4.2636	+14.15%	0.0158	✗	1.19	291k	2022-03-03
OXT	Orchid Protocol	Ethereum	0.2141	0.213048	-0.49%	0.249	+16.30%	0.0533	✗	1.01	1.9M	2022-03-03
DYDX	dYdX	Cosmos	5.016	4.9919	-0.48%	5.584	+11.32%	0.0143	✗	0.96	241k	2022-03-03
ASM	Assemble AI	Ethereum	0.0436	0.043393	-0.48%	0.05073	+16.35%	0.0279	✗	1.26	768k	2022-03-03
DOGE	Dogecoin	Dogecoin	0.124116	0.123535	-0.47%	0.129579	+4.40%	0.0539	✓	1.00	3.7M	2022-03-03
CITY	Manchester City Fan Token	Solana	8.97	8.9283	-0.46%	10.07	+12.26%	0.0519	✗	0.67	853k	2022-03-03
SHIB	Shiba Inu	Ethereum	0.00002389	0.000023785	-0.44%	0.00002507	+4.94%	0.0851	✓	1.35	3.7M	2022-03-03
STORJ	Storj	Ethereum	0.89559	0.891713	-0.43%	1.0476	+16.97%	0.0184	✗	1.40	165k	2022-03-03
XVG	Verge	native	0.00894	0.008901	-0.43%	0.01001	+11.97%	0.0136	✓	1.28	1.2M	2022-03-03
DOT	Polkadot	Polkadot	16.18	16.1111	-0.43%	18.03	+11.43%	0.0221	✓	1.32	27.9M	2022-03-03
GT	Gate	Ethereum	6.235	6.2097	-0.41%	6.7949	+8.98%	0.0097	✗	0.79	3.0M	2022-03-03
GITCOIN	GITCOIN		5.793	5.77	-0.40%	6.363	+9.84%	0.0359	✓	1.31	29k	2022-03-03
ATM	Atletico Madrid Fan Token	Solana	4.42	4.4028	-0.39%	5.38	+21.72%	0.1221	✗	0.77	459k	2022-03-03
BEL	Bella Protocol	Ethereum	0.827	0.823907	-0.37%	0.852	+3.02%	0.1058	✓	1.37	2.1M	2022-03-03
PHA	PHALA	Ethereum	0.219	0.21819	-0.37%	0.273	+24.66%	0.1360	✗	0.86	59k	2022-03-03
CTSI	Cartesi	Ethereum	0.3452	0.343925	-0.37%	0.381	+10.37%	0.0460	✓	1.45	1.3M	2022-03-03
BTTC	BTTC		0.00000181	0.000001803	-0.37%	0.0000019	+4.97%	0.0160	✓	0.67	14.4M	2022-03-03
SNX	Synthetix	Ethereum	3.941	3.9266	-0.37%	3.808	-3.37%	0.1645	✓	1.31	2.4M	2022-03-03
ETH	Ethereum	Ethereum	2,597.42	2,587.96	-0.36%	2,833.66	+9.10%	0.0182	✓	1.07	561.7M	2022-03-03
LCX	LCX	Ethereum	0.079	0.078724	-0.35%	0.095	+20.25%	0.0305	✗	1.54	668k	2022-03-03
STX	Stacks	native	1.12	1.1163	-0.33%	1.21	+8.04%	0.0518	✓	1.30	725k	2022-03-03
ADA	Cardano	Cardano	0.8533	0.850503	-0.33%	0.9021	+5.72%	0.0587	✓	1.15	97.3M	2022-03-03
METRONOME	METRONOME		2.1177	2.1113	-0.30%	2.2899	+8.13%	0.0082	✓	0.88	27k	2022-03-03
CHZ	Chiliz	Ethereum	0.1641	0.163686	-0.25%	0.1971	+20.11%	0.0431	✗	1.40	2.9M	2022-03-03
CBK	Cobak	Ethereum	2.003	1.9981	-0.25%	2.212	+10.43%	0.0041	✓	1.04	20k	2022-03-03
ETC	Ethereum Classic	native	26.53	26.474	-0.21%	30.25	+14.02%	0.0208	✗	1.10	5.1M	2022-03-03
AAVE	Aave	Ethereum	125.3	125.1255	-0.14%	129.96	+3.72%	0.1078	✓	1.43	6.5M	2022-03-03
TRAC	OriginTrail	Ethereum	0.4313	0.430793	-0.12%	0.4943	+14.61%	0.0120	✓	1.47	572k	2022-03-03
PORTO	FC Porto	Binance Smart Chain	2.6254	2.6225	-0.11%	2.95	+12.36%	0.0240	✗	0.92	2.9M	2022-03-03
ANKR	Ankr Network	Ethereum	0.06073	0.060679	-0.08%	0.06983	+14.98%	0.0163	✗	1.22	77k	2022-03-03
KSM	Kusama	Hydration	117.93	117.842	-0.07%	131.9	+11.85%	0.0103	✓	1.21	930k	2022-03-03
FIDA	Bonfida	Solana	1.717	1.7161	-0.05%	1.976	+15.08%	0.0391	✗	1.00	84k	2022-03-03
BICO	Biconomy	Ethereum	1.208	1.2081	+0.01%	1.545	+27.90%	0.1081	✓	1.35	1.8M	2022-03-03
UNI	Uniswap	Ethereum	8.83	8.8369	+0.08%	9.55	+8.15%	0.0582	✗	1.33	11.0M	2022-03-03
BCH	Bitcoin Cash	Bitcoin Cash	300.94	301.2992	+0.12%	315.29	+4.77%	0.0565	✗	1.00	7.3M	2022-03-03
AVT	Aventus	Ethereum	2.19	2.1929	+0.13%	2.38	+8.68%	0.0201	✗	1.00	639k	2022-03-03
BFC	Bifrost	Ethereum	0.15132	0.151534	+0.14%	0.16147	+6.71%	0.0758	✗	1.37	29k	2022-03-03
XVS	Venus	Ethereum	8.95	8.964	+0.16%	9.34	+4.36%	0.0910	✗	1.30	3.2M	2022-03-03
LTC	Litecoin	Litecoin	104.24	104.7531	+0.49%	111.69	+7.15%	0.0561	✗	1.18	29.5M	2022-03-03
DUSK	DUSK	Ethereum	0.3302	0.332758	+0.77%	0.3687	+11.66%	0.0706	✗	1.70	16.0M	2022-03-03
SPELL	Spell	Ethereum	0.00413	0.004162	+0.78%	0.00456	+10.41%	0.0962	✗	1.84	12.6M	2022-03-03
COTI	COTI	Ethereum	0.1956	0.197195	+0.82%	0.2283	+16.72%	0.0072	✓	1.51	3.3M	2022-03-03
IMX	Immutable	Ethereum	1.504	1.5193	+1.02%	1.46	-2.93%	0.1513	✗	1.09	3.5M	2022-03-03
GODS	Gods Unchained	Ethereum	1.13	1.1567	+2.36%	1.24	+9.73%	0.0590	✗	1.26	934k	2022-03-03
JASMY	JasmyCoin	Ethereum	0.01693	0.01755	+3.66%	0.01525	-9.92%	0.3029	✗	1.59	11.9M	2022-03-03
GLMR	Moonbeam	Base	2.18	2.2635	+3.83%	3.084	+41.47%	0.1707	✓	1.36	579k	2022-03-03

Δ columns are percentage price moves; alpha err and the hit column are in beta-adjusted log-return space, which is what the model actually predicts. “pending” means the horizon has not matured yet. Rows are capped for readability — add &limit=2000 to widen.