2022-02-04 · +7d

gru_s4 · in-sample — the model trained on this date · 147 tokens predicted

These numbers are in-sample. The model was trained on this date, so predicted-vs-actual agreement here is not evidence of skill.

+1d +7d +30d asset cohort only

rank IC

+0.2032

147 of 147 tokens assessed

long-short decile

+9.23%

realised beta-adjusted alpha

direction hit

73.5%

in alpha space · 66.0% on raw price

BTC over horizon

+1.85%

the unhedgeable market factor

Predicted vs actual (147 rows, sorted by pred)

token	name	chain	anchor px	pred px ▴	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d	vol 30d	target
GLMR	Moonbeam	Base	5.748	5.4164	-5.77%	5.157	-10.28%	0.0675	✓	1.00	1.4M	2022-02-11
PRO	Propy	Ethereum	2.1	2.0073	-4.41%	2.28	+8.57%	0.1090	✗	1.00	2.8M	2022-02-11
METRONOME	METRONOME		3.4217	3.2883	-3.90%	3.5941	+5.04%	0.0735	✗	0.84	26k	2022-02-11
PEOPLE	ConstitutionDAO	Ethereum	0.0798	0.07677	-3.80%	0.0654	-18.05%	0.1948	✓	1.88	26.7M	2022-02-11
POKT	Pocket Network	Ethereum	1.2609	1.2134	-3.77%	1.2269	-2.70%	0.0073	✓	1.00	2.8M	2022-02-11
NMR	Numeraire	Ethereum	29.4	28.3252	-3.66%	28.06	-4.56%	0.0269	✓	0.95	484k	2022-02-11
YFI	yearn.finance	Ethereum	24,905.44	24,011.40	-3.59%	23,115.13	-7.19%	0.0549	✓	0.92	12.5M	2022-02-11
LEO	LEO Token	Ethereum	5.1583	4.9748	-3.56%	6.1868	+19.94%	0.2134	✗	0.25	376k	2022-02-11
ICP	Internet Computer	Ethereum	22.27	21.481	-3.54%	19.82	-11.00%	0.1015	✓	1.14	28.0M	2022-02-11
CERE	Cere Network	Ethereum	0.0408	0.039385	-3.47%	0.0319	-21.81%	0.2393	✓	1.55	490k	2022-02-11
KNC	Kyber Network Crystal	Ethereum	2.0881	2.02	-3.26%	1.9151	-8.29%	0.0655	✓	0.66	3.5M	2022-02-11
DUSK	DUSK	Ethereum	0.5318	0.514832	-3.19%	0.4503	-15.33%	0.1670	✓	1.80	44.4M	2022-02-11
STX	Stacks	native	1.55	1.5022	-3.09%	1.51	-2.58%	0.0132	✓	1.00	1.3M	2022-02-11
ASTR	Astar	Ethereum	0.124	0.1202	-3.06%	0.117	-5.65%	0.0454	✓	1.00	110k	2022-02-11
AGLD	Adventure Gold	Ethereum	1.24	1.2031	-2.97%	1.1	-11.29%	0.1130	✓	1.27	490k	2022-02-11
CRV	Curve DAO	Ethereum	3.43	3.3291	-2.94%	2.89	-15.74%	0.1671	✓	1.40	21.7M	2022-02-11
ATOM	Cosmos Hub	Cosmos	31.13	30.2336	-2.88%	26.56	-14.68%	0.1497	✓	1.10	110.8M	2022-02-11
GTC	Gitcoin	Ethereum	8.01	7.7944	-2.69%	7.97	-0.50%	0.0157	✓	0.36	1.7M	2022-02-11
NCT	PolySwarm	Ethereum	0.05094	0.049643	-2.55%	0.05111	+0.33%	0.0107	✓	1.00	5.3M	2022-02-11
POWR	Powerledger	Ethereum	0.5994	0.584177	-2.54%	0.5956	-0.63%	0.0007	✓	1.09	1.6M	2022-02-11
FTT	FTX	Ethereum	46.03	44.8969	-2.46%	43.46	-5.58%	0.0537	✓	1.15	34.8M	2022-02-11
XMR	Monero	Monero	165.31	161.243	-2.46%	169.21	+2.36%	0.0296	✗	1.01	1.8M	2022-02-11
DIA	DIA	Ethereum	1.01	0.986104	-2.37%	0.96	-4.95%	0.0452	✓	1.00	369k	2022-02-11
BTTC	BTTC		0.00000223	0.000002178	-2.35%	0.00000216	-3.14%	0.0265	✓	1.00	15.7M	2022-02-11
SUSHI	Sushi	Ethereum	4.47	4.3651	-2.35%	4.09	-8.50%	0.0896	✓	1.33	8.4M	2022-02-11
SNX	Synthetix	Ethereum	5.53	5.4039	-2.28%	4.9	-11.39%	0.1199	✓	1.20	3.0M	2022-02-11
LINK	Chainlink	Ethereum	17.51	17.1116	-2.28%	16.22	-7.37%	0.0749	✓	1.16	79.4M	2022-02-11
DYDX	dYdX	Cosmos	6.454	6.3181	-2.11%	7.219	+11.85%	0.1153	✗	0.98	320k	2022-02-11
HIVE	Hive	native	1.1073	1.0845	-2.06%	1.074	-3.01%	0.0354	✓	1.40	1.9M	2022-02-11
API3	Api3	Ethereum	3.57	3.4965	-2.06%	3.97	+11.20%	0.1217	✗	0.29	1.5M	2022-02-11
IMX	Immutable	Ethereum	3	2.9393	-2.02%	2.31	-23.00%	0.2583	✓	0.95	2.2M	2022-02-11
RLC	iExec RLC	Ethereum	2.1	2.0577	-2.02%	2.07	-1.43%	0.0174	✓	1.27	2.3M	2022-02-11
WBTC	Wrapped Bitcoin	Ethereum	40,457.70	39,648.03	-2.00%	42,347.70	+4.67%	0.0480	✗	0.97	51k	2022-02-11
SUN	Sun Token	Tron	0.016562	0.016233	-1.99%	0.015872	-4.17%	0.0437	✓	1.15	2.7M	2022-02-11
CELL	Cellframe	Ethereum	0.964	0.945272	-1.94%	1.1483	+19.12%	0.1681	✗	1.44	99k	2022-02-11
LUNA	Terra	Terra 2	54.06	53.0103	-1.94%	50.35	-6.86%	0.0775	✓	1.42	8.8M	2022-02-11
PSG	Paris Saint-Germain Fan Token	Solana	14.97	14.6811	-1.93%	16.98	+13.43%	0.1334	✗	0.66	908k	2022-02-11
RIF	Rootstock Infrastructure Framework	Ethereum	0.1601	0.157057	-1.90%	0.1566	-2.19%	0.0220	✓	1.04	337k	2022-02-11
QNT	Quant	Ethereum	134.25	131.7068	-1.89%	129.51	-3.53%	0.0335	✓	0.91	8.1M	2022-02-11
DODO	DODO	Ethereum	0.543	0.532937	-1.85%	0.52	-4.24%	0.0502	✓	1.40	4.6M	2022-02-11
MTL	Metal DAO	Metal L2	1.721	1.6894	-1.83%	1.637	-4.88%	0.0517	✓	1.10	1.6M	2022-02-11
SUPER	SuperVerse	Ethereum	0.8	0.785382	-1.83%	0.92	+15.00%	0.1239	✗	1.87	1.0M	2022-02-11
XTZ	Tezos	Tezos	4.0141	3.941	-1.82%	4.3129	+7.44%	0.0669	✗	1.27	2.4M	2022-02-11
CWEB	Coinweb	Ethereum	0.039645	0.038936	-1.79%	0.032124	-18.97%	0.2159	✓	1.28	123k	2022-02-11
MOVR	Moonriver	Base	88.7362	87.1633	-1.77%	84.8321	-4.40%	0.0519	✓	1.35	351k	2022-02-11
BFC	Bifrost	Ethereum	0.20472	0.2011	-1.77%	0.18907	-7.64%	0.0891	✓	1.49	32k	2022-02-11
TRB	Tellor Tributes	Ethereum	21.99	21.609	-1.73%	22.36	+1.68%	0.0061	✓	1.53	418k	2022-02-11
PORTO	FC Porto	Binance Smart Chain	3.186	3.1318	-1.70%	3.6	+12.99%	0.1221	✗	0.94	2.2M	2022-02-11
ADA	Cardano	Cardano	1.1398	1.1212	-1.64%	1.0803	-5.22%	0.0573	✓	1.10	113.2M	2022-02-11
CITY	Manchester City Fan Token	Solana	9.89	9.7301	-1.62%	10.1	+2.12%	0.0244	✗	0.70	660k	2022-02-11
BICO	Biconomy	Ethereum	2.14	2.1062	-1.58%	1.95	-8.88%	0.1023	✓	1.38	3.7M	2022-02-11
CVC	Civic	Ethereum	0.3064	0.301594	-1.57%	0.2842	-7.25%	0.0790	✓	1.06	566k	2022-02-11
ORBS	Orbs	Ethereum	0.0704	0.069308	-1.55%	0.072	+2.27%	0.0188	✗	1.05	19k	2022-02-11
AAVE	Aave	Ethereum	166.87	164.3261	-1.52%	163.71	-1.89%	0.0286	✓	1.35	11.5M	2022-02-11
IOTA	IOTA	IOTA	0.9567	0.942163	-1.52%	0.8754	-8.50%	0.0923	✓	1.02	14.7M	2022-02-11
OG	OG Fan Token	Solana	3.56	3.5059	-1.52%	3.29	-7.58%	0.0786	✓	0.82	708k	2022-02-11
CBK	Cobak	Ethereum	2.495	2.4574	-1.51%	2.354	-5.65%	0.0616	✓	1.01	21k	2022-02-11
PHA	PHALA	Ethereum	0.27	0.265932	-1.51%	0.301	+11.48%	0.1073	✗	0.90	67k	2022-02-11
ALGO	Algorand	Algorand	0.9987	0.983814	-1.49%	0.9169	-8.19%	0.0907	✓	1.10	29.7M	2022-02-11
XEM	NEM	native	0.1096	0.107974	-1.48%	0.1086	-0.91%	0.0118	✓	0.95	40k	2022-02-11
BAND	Band	Ethereum	3.84	3.7838	-1.46%	4.25	+10.68%	0.0932	✗	1.25	2.2M	2022-02-11
MINA	Mina Protocol	native	2.71	2.6705	-1.46%	2.54	-6.27%	0.0717	✓	1.17	494k	2022-02-11
VSYS	V.SYSTEMS	native	0.01363	0.013433	-1.44%	0.01359	-0.29%	0.0046	✓	0.88	13k	2022-02-11
QTUM	Qtum	Qtum	6.8761	6.7776	-1.43%	6.5603	-4.59%	0.0583	✓	1.40	174k	2022-02-11
CTK	Shentu	Osmosis	1.458	1.4372	-1.43%	1.257	-13.79%	0.1566	✓	1.23	3.4M	2022-02-11
BCHSV	Bitcoin Cash SV		95.61	94.2489	-1.42%	94.64	-1.01%	0.0125	✓	0.90	1.7M	2022-02-11
XLM	Stellar	Stellar	0.209216	0.206322	-1.38%	0.215393	+2.95%	0.0249	✗	0.99	25.3M	2022-02-11
BAT	Basic Attention	Ethereum	0.89908	0.88683	-1.36%	0.82329	-8.43%	0.1037	✓	1.60	351k	2022-02-11
FIL	Filecoin	Filecoin	21.63	21.3373	-1.35%	21.09	-2.50%	0.0325	✓	1.14	10.4M	2022-02-11
DKA	dKargo	Ethereum	0.09859	0.097272	-1.34%	0.09752	-1.09%	0.0154	✓	0.97	47k	2022-02-11
ASR	AS Roma Fan Token	Solana	3.234	3.1908	-1.34%	3.154	-2.47%	0.0258	✓	0.77	212k	2022-02-11
1INCH	1INCH	Ethereum	1.77	1.7464	-1.33%	1.71	-3.39%	0.0435	✓	1.22	1.8M	2022-02-11
XYM	Symbol	native	0.1886	0.18609	-1.33%	0.1735	-8.01%	0.0826	✓	0.68	423k	2022-02-11
COTI	COTI	Ethereum	0.3098	0.305694	-1.33%	0.2888	-6.78%	0.0850	✓	1.53	4.1M	2022-02-11
LSK	Lisk	Ethereum	1.7925	1.7689	-1.32%	1.7756	-0.94%	0.0159	✓	1.07	76k	2022-02-11
GT	Gate	Ethereum	7.0386	6.9462	-1.31%	6.7399	-4.24%	0.0461	✓	0.87	4.1M	2022-02-11
ANKR	Ankr Network	Ethereum	0.08239	0.081325	-1.29%	0.07747	-5.97%	0.0622	✓	0.74	80k	2022-02-11
BTC	Bitcoin	Bitcoin	41,614.64	41,078.72	-1.29%	42,386.47	+1.85%	0.0130	✗	1.00	682.8M	2022-02-11
UMA	UMA	Ethereum	6.19	6.1104	-1.29%	5.96	-3.72%	0.0444	✓	1.06	1.9M	2022-02-11
ENJ	Enjin Coin	Ethereum	1.823	1.7997	-1.28%	1.833	+0.55%	0.0031	✓	1.17	1.3M	2022-02-11
DASH	Dash	Dash	103.07	101.7605	-1.27%	103.99	+0.89%	0.0009	✓	1.13	2.7M	2022-02-11
OMG	OMG Network	Ethereum	4.9837	4.9206	-1.27%	4.7016	-5.66%	0.0679	✓	1.22	364k	2022-02-11
ETC	Ethereum Classic	native	29.7	29.3255	-1.26%	32.74	+10.24%	0.0913	✗	1.03	3.8M	2022-02-11
ACM	AC Milan Fan Token	Solana	4.373	4.318	-1.26%	4.453	+1.83%	0.0162	✗	0.79	351k	2022-02-11
LAZIO	Lazio Fan Token	Binance Smart Chain	3.373	3.3309	-1.25%	3.4051	+0.95%	0.0030	✓	1.04	2.6M	2022-02-11
ZRX	0x Protocol	Ethereum	0.647332	0.639304	-1.24%	0.616904	-4.70%	0.0563	✓	1.12	3.5M	2022-02-11
SC	Siacoin	native	0.01119	0.011052	-1.23%	0.01056	-5.63%	0.0641	✓	1.01	572k	2022-02-11
XPR	XPR Network	Ethereum	0.0106	0.010471	-1.22%	0.01244	+17.36%	0.1486	✗	1.29	1.7M	2022-02-11
GITCOIN	GITCOIN		7.996	7.8994	-1.21%	7.923	-0.91%	0.0033	✓	0.34	40k	2022-02-11
JUV	Juventus Fan Token	Solana	6.46	6.3832	-1.19%	6.47	+0.15%	0.0018	✓	0.83	483k	2022-02-11
ZEN	Horizen	Base	43.19	42.6858	-1.17%	40.36	-6.55%	0.0843	✓	1.54	568k	2022-02-11
NAKA	Nakamoto Games	Polygon	0.41	0.405221	-1.17%	0.6358	+55.07%	0.4216	✗	1.57	1.8M	2022-02-11
DOGE	Dogecoin	Dogecoin	0.147947	0.146239	-1.15%	0.14485	-2.09%	0.0281	✓	1.01	7.1M	2022-02-11
SKL	SKALE	Ethereum	0.1262	0.124744	-1.15%	0.149	+18.07%	0.1539	✗	1.29	3.3M	2022-02-11
BAR	FC Barcelona Fan Token	Solana	6.43	6.3567	-1.14%	6.24	-2.95%	0.0324	✓	0.75	481k	2022-02-11
XEC	eCash	native	0.00008267	0.000081734	-1.13%	0.00008391	+1.50%	0.0062	✓	1.09	5.5M	2022-02-11
UOS	Ultra	Ethereum	1.172	1.1589	-1.12%	1.0976	-6.35%	0.0765	✓	1.20	2.4M	2022-02-11
COMP	Compound	Ethereum	132.7	131.2172	-1.12%	124.54	-6.15%	0.0748	✓	1.23	54k	2022-02-11
SANTOS	Santos FC Fan Token	Binance Smart Chain	2.734	2.7038	-1.10%	2.754	+0.73%	0.0060	✓	1.33	986k	2022-02-11
DNT	district0x	Ethereum	0.0871	0.086142	-1.10%	0.0868	-0.34%	0.0135	✓	1.15	256k	2022-02-11
LPT	Livepeer	Ethereum	29.67	29.3459	-1.09%	29.96	+0.98%	0.0090	✓	1.62	2.1M	2022-02-11
MANA	Decentraland	Ethereum	2.8185	2.7883	-1.07%	2.9222	+3.68%	0.0307	✗	0.88	2.8M	2022-02-11
AVAX	Avalanche	Avalanche	77.91	77.0981	-1.04%	81.81	+5.01%	0.0348	✗	1.33	89.7M	2022-02-11
ARPA	ARPA	Ethereum	0.0663	0.065609	-1.04%	0.0869	+31.07%	0.2587	✗	1.22	540k	2022-02-11
LCX	LCX	Ethereum	0.1207	0.119447	-1.04%	0.1086	-10.02%	0.1214	✓	1.43	1.6M	2022-02-11
DOT	Polkadot	Polkadot	20.51	20.2992	-1.03%	18.99	-7.41%	0.0909	✓	1.32	44.7M	2022-02-11
AUCTION	Bounce	Ethereum	15.13	14.9749	-1.03%	14.96	-1.12%	0.0188	✓	0.97	731k	2022-02-11
NANO	nanopay	Base	2.207	2.1857	-0.97%	2.1819	-1.13%	0.0227	✓	1.14	888k	2022-02-11
AMP	Amp	Ethereum	0.03121	0.030909	-0.96%	0.03298	+5.67%	0.0494	✗	0.84	7.7M	2022-02-11
CTSI	Cartesi	Ethereum	0.4872	0.482588	-0.95%	0.4583	-5.93%	0.0766	✓	1.36	2.0M	2022-02-11
CHZ	Chiliz	Ethereum	0.2023	0.200393	-0.94%	0.2056	+1.63%	0.0023	✓	1.27	3.6M	2022-02-11
BNT	Bancor Network	Ethereum	2.65	2.6259	-0.91%	2.58	-2.64%	0.0358	✓	0.99	604k	2022-02-11
RAD	Radworks	Ethereum	5.44	5.3912	-0.90%	5.4	-0.74%	0.0165	✓	0.99	952k	2022-02-11
MASK	Mask Network	Ethereum	6.47	6.4121	-0.89%	5.99	-7.42%	0.0863	✓	0.99	818k	2022-02-11
XYO	XYO Network	Ethereum	0.0224	0.022203	-0.88%	0.022611	+0.94%	0.0007	✓	1.03	2.7M	2022-02-11
KCS	KuCoin	native	19.447	19.2777	-0.87%	19.087	-1.85%	0.0358	✓	1.41	10.5M	2022-02-11
DEXE	DeXe	Ethereum	7.38	7.3172	-0.85%	7.7	+4.34%	0.0454	✗	0.30	1.1M	2022-02-11
TRX	TRON	Tron	0.06445	0.063904	-0.85%	0.063958	-0.76%	0.0156	✓	0.90	396k	2022-02-11
OGN	Origin Token	Ethereum	0.352	0.349035	-0.84%	0.375	+6.53%	0.0482	✗	1.28	1.8M	2022-02-11
UNI	Uniswap	Ethereum	11.18	11.0861	-0.84%	10.65	-4.74%	0.0635	✓	1.27	12.5M	2022-02-11
JASMY	JasmyCoin	Ethereum	0.04226	0.041909	-0.83%	0.03653	-13.56%	0.1570	✓	1.07	9.0M	2022-02-11
ETH	Ethereum	Ethereum	2,998.19	2,973.95	-0.81%	2,929.08	-2.31%	0.0352	✓	1.09	573.1M	2022-02-11
GRT	The Graph	Ethereum	0.4406	0.437041	-0.81%	0.4181	-5.11%	0.0678	✓	1.28	9.7M	2022-02-11
EWT	Energy Web Token	Ethereum	6.123	6.0737	-0.80%	6.01	-1.85%	0.0256	✓	0.82	103k	2022-02-11
MED	Medibloc	Osmosis	0.04407	0.043716	-0.80%	0.04188	-4.97%	0.0626	✓	1.07	29k	2022-02-11
SOL	Solana	Solana	112.69	111.7901	-0.80%	96.5	-14.37%	0.1686	✓	1.17	191.4M	2022-02-11
TWT	Trust Wallet	Binance Smart Chain	0.5902	0.58549	-0.80%	0.5696	-3.49%	0.0505	✓	1.25	2.7M	2022-02-11
ATM	Atletico Madrid Fan Token	Solana	5.39	5.3472	-0.79%	5.47	+1.48%	0.0095	✗	0.72	398k	2022-02-11
GODS	Gods Unchained	Ethereum	2.29	2.2721	-0.78%	1.99	-13.10%	0.1545	✓	1.20	2.3M	2022-02-11
KSM	Kusama	Hydration	180.53	179.1245	-0.78%	165.1	-8.55%	0.1029	✓	1.16	1.1M	2022-02-11
ZEC	Zcash	Zcash	107.21	106.3894	-0.77%	116.54	+8.70%	0.0683	✗	1.24	6.6M	2022-02-11
XVG	Verge	native	0.01084	0.010759	-0.75%	0.01151	+6.18%	0.0443	✗	1.26	1.4M	2022-02-11
ENS	Ethereum Name Service	Ethereum	20.65	20.4979	-0.74%	17.24	-16.51%	0.2049	✓	1.73	3.9M	2022-02-11
STORJ	Storj	Ethereum	1.2494	1.2404	-0.72%	1.1623	-6.97%	0.0829	✓	0.97	333k	2022-02-11
TRAC	OriginTrail	Ethereum	0.6793	0.674497	-0.71%	0.6537	-3.77%	0.0576	✓	1.43	1.1M	2022-02-11
OXT	Orchid Protocol	Ethereum	0.2513	0.249543	-0.70%	0.2594	+3.22%	0.0186	✗	1.10	1.8M	2022-02-11
ACH	Alchemy Pay	Ethereum	0.0408	0.040528	-0.67%	0.047719	+16.96%	0.1408	✗	1.23	8.8M	2022-02-11
AXS	Axie Infinity	Ethereum	51.33	51.0412	-0.56%	59.07	+15.08%	0.1257	✗	1.11	7.8M	2022-02-11
TKO	Tokocrypto	Binance Smart Chain	0.772	0.767851	-0.54%	0.771	-0.13%	0.0149	✓	1.03	1.6M	2022-02-11
SHIB	Shiba Inu	Ethereum	0.0000222	0.000022091	-0.49%	0.00002872	+29.37%	0.2390	✗	1.27	1.4M	2022-02-11
LTC	Litecoin	Litecoin	121.42	120.9629	-0.38%	125.69	+3.52%	0.0146	✗	1.29	33.0M	2022-02-11
BEL	Bella Protocol	Ethereum	0.978	0.974526	-0.36%	0.96	-1.84%	0.0397	✓	1.34	2.3M	2022-02-11
LRC	Loopring	Ethereum	0.9113	0.908582	-0.30%	0.9345	+2.55%	0.0025	✓	1.67	783k	2022-02-11
ASM	Assemble AI	Ethereum	0.05692	0.056775	-0.26%	0.05622	-1.23%	0.0341	✓	1.32	1.5M	2022-02-11
BCH	Bitcoin Cash	Bitcoin Cash	306.37	305.9377	-0.14%	321.01	+4.78%	0.0294	✗	1.01	7.6M	2022-02-11
SPELL	Spell	Ethereum	0.00663	0.006621	-0.13%	0.0062	-6.49%	0.1029	✓	2.03	20.3M	2022-02-11
XVS	Venus	Ethereum	8.72	8.7321	+0.14%	8.92	+2.29%	0.0015	✗	1.24	2.5M	2022-02-11

Δ columns are percentage price moves; alpha err and the hit column are in beta-adjusted log-return space, which is what the model actually predicts. “pending” means the horizon has not matured yet. Rows are capped for readability — add &limit=2000 to widen.