2022-01-14 · +7d

gru_s4 · in-sample — the model trained on this date · 139 tokens predicted

These numbers are in-sample. The model was trained on this date, so predicted-vs-actual agreement here is not evidence of skill.

+1d +7d +30d asset cohort only

rank IC

-0.0011

139 of 139 tokens assessed

long-short decile

-3.26%

realised beta-adjusted alpha

direction hit

86.3%

in alpha space · 97.8% on raw price

BTC over horizon

-15.39%

the unhedgeable market factor

Predicted vs actual (139 rows, sorted by pred)

token	name	chain	anchor px	pred px ▾	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d	vol 30d	target
BCH	Bitcoin Cash	Bitcoin Cash	385.65	385.5458	-0.03%	315.04	-18.31%	0.0322	✓	1.02	7.6M	2022-01-21
NAKA	Nakamoto Games	Polygon	0.9779	0.976859	-0.11%	0.5186	-46.97%	0.4652	✓	1.01	3.0M	2022-01-21
SPELL	Spell	Ethereum	0.01434	0.0143	-0.28%	0.0092	-35.84%	0.0453	✓	2.37	26.1M	2022-01-21
XVS	Venus	Ethereum	14	13.9476	-0.37%	9.94	-29.00%	0.1476	✓	1.14	3.1M	2022-01-21
ASM	Assemble AI	Ethereum	0.08072	0.080356	-0.45%	0.05388	-33.25%	0.1623	✓	1.42	2.6M	2022-01-21
BEL	Bella Protocol	Ethereum	1.308	1.3008	-0.55%	0.984	-24.77%	0.0529	✓	1.35	2.7M	2022-01-21
SNX	Synthetix	Ethereum	5.22	5.1904	-0.57%	4.17	-20.11%	0.0213	✓	1.18	3.3M	2022-01-21
PEOPLE	ConstitutionDAO	Ethereum	0.079	0.078497	-0.64%	0.0417	-47.22%	0.4654	✓	1.00	27.8M	2022-01-21
UNI	Uniswap	Ethereum	15.87	15.7641	-0.67%	12.63	-20.42%	0.0042	✓	1.30	12.4M	2022-01-21
LTC	Litecoin	Litecoin	144.84	143.8484	-0.68%	114.51	-20.94%	0.0007	✓	1.37	32.2M	2022-01-21
LCX	LCX	Ethereum	0.1392	0.138246	-0.69%	0.0939	-32.54%	0.1725	✓	1.28	2.4M	2022-01-21
ATM	Atletico Madrid Fan Token	Solana	6.68	6.6326	-0.71%	5.64	-15.57%	0.0516	✓	0.66	602k	2022-01-21
AAVE	Aave	Ethereum	224.05	222.3929	-0.74%	171.09	-23.64%	0.0652	✓	1.18	17.6M	2022-01-21
ETH	Ethereum	Ethereum	3,310.45	3,284.85	-0.77%	2,569.01	-22.40%	0.0667	✓	1.07	556.2M	2022-01-21
FIL	Filecoin	Filecoin	29.72	29.4875	-0.78%	21.98	-26.04%	0.1124	✓	1.09	15.5M	2022-01-21
AXS	Axie Infinity	Ethereum	73.7	73.1233	-0.78%	58.39	-20.77%	0.0455	✓	1.07	6.2M	2022-01-21
RIF	Rootstock Infrastructure Framework	Ethereum	0.1798	0.178317	-0.82%	0.1474	-18.02%	0.0380	✓	0.91	432k	2022-01-21
COMP	Compound	Ethereum	189.59	187.9807	-0.85%	139.37	-26.49%	0.1045	✓	1.16	149k	2022-01-21
GODS	Gods Unchained	Ethereum	2.92	2.895	-0.86%	2.29	-21.58%	0.0239	✓	1.26	3.1M	2022-01-21
OG	OG Fan Token	Solana	4.269	4.2322	-0.86%	3.392	-20.54%	0.0875	✓	0.80	1.1M	2022-01-21
LRC	Loopring	Ethereum	1.4707	1.458	-0.87%	0.8678	-40.99%	0.1989	✓	1.91	1.4M	2022-01-21
ENS	Ethereum Name Service	Ethereum	26.28	26.0445	-0.90%	17.88	-31.96%	0.0679	✓	1.84	4.1M	2022-01-21
RAD	Radworks	Ethereum	7.92	7.8457	-0.94%	5.68	-28.28%	0.1760	✓	0.88	1.1M	2022-01-21
TRX	TRON	Tron	0.067658	0.06702	-0.94%	0.061109	-9.68%	0.0681	✗	0.96	552k	2022-01-21
SOL	Solana	Solana	146.17	144.7818	-0.95%	112.32	-23.16%	0.0654	✓	1.13	177.1M	2022-01-21
XVG	Verge	native	0.01389	0.013756	-0.96%	0.01002	-27.86%	0.1102	✓	1.24	2.0M	2022-01-21
BAR	FC Barcelona Fan Token	Solana	7.91	7.833	-0.97%	6.31	-20.23%	0.1106	✓	0.63	680k	2022-01-21
BTC	Bitcoin	Bitcoin	43,090.72	42,664.80	-0.99%	36,456.94	-15.39%	0.0099	✓	1.00	679.0M	2022-01-21
ASR	AS Roma Fan Token	Solana	3.845	3.807	-0.99%	3.168	-17.61%	0.0656	✓	0.71	526k	2022-01-21
DOT	Polkadot	Polkadot	27.76	27.4844	-0.99%	19.67	-29.14%	0.1097	✓	1.35	64.3M	2022-01-21
TRAC	OriginTrail	Ethereum	1.0305	1.0202	-1.00%	0.6747	-34.53%	0.1792	✓	1.40	1.5M	2022-01-21
SUN	Sun Token	Tron	0.02049	0.020284	-1.01%	0.016171	-21.08%	0.0205	✓	1.23	2.5M	2022-01-21
MTL	Metal DAO	Metal L2	1.853	1.8343	-1.01%	1.445	-22.02%	0.0460	✓	1.15	2.2M	2022-01-21
GRT	The Graph	Ethereum	0.5792	0.573315	-1.02%	0.4366	-24.62%	0.0544	✓	1.30	12.2M	2022-01-21
NANO	nanopay	Base	3.1511	3.1185	-1.03%	2.3265	-26.17%	0.1019	✓	1.14	699k	2022-01-21
TKO	Tokocrypto	Binance Smart Chain	1.055	1.0439	-1.05%	0.764	-27.58%	0.1498	✓	0.97	2.2M	2022-01-21
ACH	Alchemy Pay	Ethereum	0.059654	0.059018	-1.07%	0.041641	-30.20%	0.1479	✓	1.20	7.5M	2022-01-21
AUCTION	Bounce	Ethereum	20.29	20.0676	-1.10%	15.55	-23.36%	0.0796	✓	1.05	958k	2022-01-21
DKA	dKargo	Ethereum	0.10933	0.108112	-1.11%	0.08324	-23.86%	0.0710	✓	1.14	23k	2022-01-21
XEC	eCash	native	0.00009702	0.000095925	-1.13%	0.00007968	-17.87%	0.0162	✓	1.01	6.5M	2022-01-21
AVAX	Avalanche	Avalanche	90.41	89.3855	-1.13%	66.07	-26.92%	0.1049	✓	1.18	108.4M	2022-01-21
TWT	Trust Wallet	Binance Smart Chain	0.7107	0.702629	-1.14%	0.5619	-20.94%	0.0089	✓	1.28	3.7M	2022-01-21
SUSHI	Sushi	Ethereum	7.03	6.9497	-1.14%	4.96	-29.45%	0.1218	✓	1.29	17.7M	2022-01-21
EWT	Energy Web Token	Ethereum	7.757	7.6683	-1.14%	5.957	-23.20%	0.1376	✓	0.69	192k	2022-01-21
KCS	KuCoin	native	20.08	19.8448	-1.17%	16.808	-16.29%	0.1034	✗	1.61	11.0M	2022-01-21
ETC	Ethereum Classic	native	31.98	31.6039	-1.18%	25.95	-18.86%	0.0194	✓	1.06	2.9M	2022-01-21
XYM	Symbol	native	0.1929	0.190619	-1.18%	0.1639	-15.03%	0.0378	✓	0.68	464k	2022-01-21
PHA	PHALA	Ethereum	0.366	0.361662	-1.19%	0.271	-25.96%	0.1611	✓	0.76	43k	2022-01-21
XYO	XYO Network	Ethereum	0.028431	0.028093	-1.19%	0.022082	-22.33%	0.0691	✓	1.03	5.7M	2022-01-21
ARPA	ARPA	Ethereum	0.0865	0.085462	-1.20%	0.0619	-28.44%	0.0892	✓	1.40	1.2M	2022-01-21
RLC	iExec RLC	Ethereum	2.77	2.7366	-1.21%	2	-27.80%	0.0923	✓	1.32	3.2M	2022-01-21
XTZ	Tezos	Tezos	4.285	4.2325	-1.22%	3.3417	-22.01%	0.0078	✓	1.37	4.3M	2022-01-21
QTUM	Qtum	Qtum	7.8442	7.7467	-1.24%	6.1225	-21.95%	0.0044	✓	1.43	263k	2022-01-21
BCHSV	Bitcoin Cash SV		113.04	111.6304	-1.25%	95.68	-15.36%	0.0057	✓	0.96	2.2M	2022-01-21
COTI	COTI	Ethereum	0.335	0.330807	-1.25%	0.2921	-12.81%	0.1288	✗	1.51	3.8M	2022-01-21
WBTC	Wrapped Bitcoin	Ethereum	43,294.10	42,750.49	-1.26%	36,607.80	-15.44%	0.0094	✓	0.98	14k	2022-01-21
OXT	Orchid Protocol	Ethereum	0.3321	0.327918	-1.26%	0.2523	-24.03%	0.0478	✓	1.28	2.2M	2022-01-21
1INCH	1INCH	Ethereum	2.38	2.3499	-1.26%	1.84	-22.69%	0.0675	✓	1.06	2.9M	2022-01-21
KSM	Kusama	Hydration	281.84	278.2728	-1.27%	213.87	-24.12%	0.0652	✓	1.18	1.4M	2022-01-21
CTK	Shentu	Osmosis	1.509	1.4898	-1.27%	1.209	-19.88%	0.0194	✗	1.37	4.4M	2022-01-21
VSYS	V.SYSTEMS	native	0.01666	0.016446	-1.29%	0.01394	-16.33%	0.0437	✓	0.73	24k	2022-01-21
IOTA	IOTA	IOTA	1.1223	1.1079	-1.29%	0.857	-23.64%	0.0899	✓	1.00	23.2M	2022-01-21
JASMY	JasmyCoin	Ethereum	0.0707	0.069785	-1.29%	0.05552	-21.47%	0.0238	✓	1.23	16.4M	2022-01-21
CHZ	Chiliz	Ethereum	0.2668	0.263326	-1.30%	0.198	-25.79%	0.0629	✓	1.33	4.0M	2022-01-21
BNT	Bancor Network	Ethereum	3.19	3.1483	-1.31%	2.46	-22.88%	0.0817	✓	0.99	918k	2022-01-21
CERE	Cere Network	Ethereum	0.0557	0.054971	-1.31%	0.0363	-34.83%	0.1855	✓	1.37	1.5M	2022-01-21
ZRX	0x Protocol	Ethereum	0.748205	0.73836	-1.32%	0.55846	-25.36%	0.0882	✓	1.14	2.5M	2022-01-21
CBK	Cobak	Ethereum	2.857	2.8191	-1.33%	2.197	-23.10%	0.0984	✓	0.90	26k	2022-01-21
AGLD	Adventure Gold	Ethereum	1.38	1.3616	-1.33%	0.97	-29.71%	0.0597	✓	1.67	569k	2022-01-21
AMP	Amp	Ethereum	0.04111	0.040563	-1.33%	0.0303	-26.30%	0.1394	✓	0.91	8.4M	2022-01-21
UOS	Ultra	Ethereum	1.2988	1.2812	-1.35%	0.91734	-29.37%	0.1594	✓	1.05	3.0M	2022-01-21
DEXE	DeXe	Ethereum	9.84	9.7051	-1.37%	6.72	-31.71%	0.3705	✓	-0.02	1.5M	2022-01-21
IMX	Immutable	Ethereum	3.55	3.5005	-1.39%	2.71	-23.66%	0.0241	✓	1.39	2.2M	2022-01-21
QNT	Quant	Ethereum	165.39	163.0838	-1.39%	114.44	-30.81%	0.1985	✓	0.93	6.9M	2022-01-21
ZEC	Zcash	Zcash	142.55	140.5398	-1.41%	102.35	-28.20%	0.1000	✓	1.30	10.9M	2022-01-21
TRB	Tellor Tributes	Ethereum	29.7	29.2795	-1.42%	21.23	-28.52%	0.0634	✓	1.54	1.0M	2022-01-21
GT	Gate	Ethereum	6.8128	6.7162	-1.42%	6.243	-8.36%	0.0706	✗	0.86	3.5M	2022-01-21
ANKR	Ankr Network	Ethereum	0.09336	0.092029	-1.43%	0.07197	-22.91%	0.1245	✓	0.73	52k	2022-01-21
ACM	AC Milan Fan Token	Solana	4.867	4.7967	-1.44%	4.12	-15.35%	0.0390	✓	0.68	469k	2022-01-21
LAZIO	Lazio Fan Token	Binance Smart Chain	4.3463	4.2831	-1.45%	3.555	-18.21%	0.0246	✗	1.26	4.1M	2022-01-21
NMR	Numeraire	Ethereum	28.42	28.0065	-1.45%	23.31	-17.98%	0.0646	✓	0.71	360k	2022-01-21
XEM	NEM	native	0.1192	0.11746	-1.46%	0.097	-18.62%	0.0152	✓	1.05	57k	2022-01-21
MANA	Decentraland	Ethereum	2.955	2.9115	-1.47%	2.2219	-24.81%	0.1001	✓	1.02	5.2M	2022-01-21
STORJ	Storj	Ethereum	1.6069	1.5827	-1.50%	1.1848	-26.27%	0.1425	✓	0.88	502k	2022-01-21
GITCOIN	GITCOIN		10.866	10.7024	-1.51%	7.826	-27.98%	0.2946	✓	0.11	44k	2022-01-21
JUV	Juventus Fan Token	Solana	8.04	7.9188	-1.51%	6.56	-18.41%	0.0599	✓	0.77	737k	2022-01-21
LEO	LEO Token	Ethereum	3.7699	3.713	-1.51%	3.5345	-6.24%	0.0598	✓	-0.06	364k	2022-01-21
XPR	XPR Network	Ethereum	0.015	0.014766	-1.56%	0.01111	-25.93%	0.0652	✓	1.31	2.2M	2022-01-21
DODO	DODO	Ethereum	0.802	0.789443	-1.57%	0.561	-30.05%	0.0929	✓	1.49	8.0M	2022-01-21
ADA	Cardano	Cardano	1.2931	1.2726	-1.58%	1.1211	-13.30%	0.0655	✗	1.15	95.6M	2022-01-21
SKL	SKALE	Ethereum	0.1754	0.172603	-1.59%	0.1206	-31.24%	0.1472	✓	1.26	4.2M	2022-01-21
MOVR	Moonriver	Base	157.2002	154.6783	-1.60%	95	-39.57%	0.2994	✓	1.12	515k	2022-01-21
PSG	Paris Saint-Germain Fan Token	Solana	14.96	14.7184	-1.61%	13.42	-10.29%	0.0220	✗	0.68	1.1M	2022-01-21
CITY	Manchester City Fan Token	Solana	10.52	10.3494	-1.62%	9.4	-10.65%	0.0299	✗	0.75	955k	2022-01-21
ZEN	Horizen	Base	53.8	52.9233	-1.63%	38.94	-27.62%	0.0574	✓	1.49	667k	2022-01-21
OMG	OMG Network	Ethereum	6.0352	5.9341	-1.68%	4.7186	-21.82%	0.0263	✓	1.21	457k	2022-01-21
OGN	Origin Token	Ethereum	0.521	0.51216	-1.70%	0.352	-32.44%	0.1579	✓	1.30	2.0M	2022-01-21
UMA	UMA	Ethereum	8.39	8.2453	-1.72%	6.6	-21.33%	0.0607	✓	0.97	4.3M	2022-01-21
XLM	Stellar	Stellar	0.265375	0.260785	-1.73%	0.202862	-23.56%	0.0774	✓	1.04	24.2M	2022-01-21
ICP	Internet Computer	Ethereum	32.54	31.9767	-1.73%	24.19	-25.66%	0.0433	✓	1.41	34.3M	2022-01-21
DASH	Dash	Dash	141.12	138.6226	-1.77%	105.73	-25.08%	0.0700	✓	1.20	2.8M	2022-01-21
SHIB	Shiba Inu	Ethereum	0.00003084	0.00003029	-1.78%	0.00002226	-27.82%	0.0822	✓	1.35	1.8M	2022-01-21
LPT	Livepeer	Ethereum	36.25	35.597	-1.80%	24.86	-31.42%	0.0814	✓	1.66	2.7M	2022-01-21
DNT	district0x	Ethereum	0.113	0.110929	-1.83%	0.0834	-26.19%	0.0980	✓	1.12	303k	2022-01-21
API3	Api3	Ethereum	3.92	3.8473	-1.86%	4.65	+18.62%	0.3224	✗	0.80	471k	2022-01-21
LSK	Lisk	Ethereum	2.0924	2.0533	-1.87%	1.6672	-20.32%	0.0230	✓	1.11	95k	2022-01-21
ALGO	Algorand	Algorand	1.3822	1.356	-1.89%	1.0303	-25.46%	0.0787	✓	1.17	30.5M	2022-01-21
SC	Siacoin	native	0.01386	0.013598	-1.89%	0.01044	-24.68%	0.0983	✓	0.99	656k	2022-01-21
SUPER	SuperVerse	Ethereum	1.09	1.0691	-1.91%	0.73	-33.03%	0.0625	✓	1.91	1.6M	2022-01-21
BAT	Basic Attention	Ethereum	1.0526	1.0321	-1.95%	0.81011	-23.04%	0.0562	✗	1.78	974k	2022-01-21
LUNA	Terra	Terra 2	81.47	79.8717	-1.96%	64.94	-20.29%	0.0398	✓	1.00	7.4M	2022-01-21
ENJ	Enjin Coin	Ethereum	2.415	2.3676	-1.96%	1.738	-28.03%	0.1222	✓	1.12	2.0M	2022-01-21
DOGE	Dogecoin	Dogecoin	0.183317	0.179697	-1.97%	0.142057	-22.51%	0.0511	✓	1.10	5.4M	2022-01-21
HIVE	Hive	native	1.31	1.2838	-2.00%	0.906	-30.84%	0.1150	✓	1.40	4.0M	2022-01-21
MINA	Mina Protocol	native	3.46	3.3898	-2.03%	2.9	-16.18%	0.0254	✗	1.09	808k	2022-01-21
MASK	Mask Network	Ethereum	9.5	9.3042	-2.06%	6.49	-31.68%	0.2414	✓	0.71	1.0M	2022-01-21
PORTO	FC Porto	Binance Smart Chain	3.3204	3.2515	-2.08%	3.11	-6.34%	0.1546	✗	1.19	2.6M	2022-01-21
LINK	Chainlink	Ethereum	25.74	25.2031	-2.09%	17.44	-32.25%	0.1692	✓	1.19	74.2M	2022-01-21
DYDX	dYdX	Cosmos	7.673	7.5124	-2.09%	8.351	+8.84%	0.3236	✗	1.30	271k	2022-01-21
KNC	Kyber Network Crystal	Ethereum	1.4198	1.3901	-2.09%	1.4321	+0.87%	0.1746	✗	0.87	922k	2022-01-21
ORBS	Orbs	Ethereum	0.0813	0.079583	-2.11%	0.0634	-22.02%	0.0422	✓	1.11	19k	2022-01-21
BAND	Band	Ethereum	5.7	5.5793	-2.12%	3.96	-30.53%	0.1582	✓	1.10	2.3M	2022-01-21
XMR	Monero	Monero	229.78	224.6763	-2.22%	172.82	-24.79%	0.0970	✓	0.99	3.1M	2022-01-21
SANTOS	Santos FC Fan Token	Binance Smart Chain	3.372	3.2956	-2.26%	2.795	-17.11%	0.1253	✗	1.73	1.2M	2022-01-21
MED	Medibloc	Osmosis	0.05342	0.052204	-2.28%	0.03977	-25.55%	0.0888	✓	1.10	19k	2022-01-21
YFI	yearn.finance	Ethereum	32,239.49	31,478.03	-2.36%	25,741.64	-20.15%	0.0897	✓	0.67	26.4M	2022-01-21
FTT	FTX	Ethereum	44.73	43.6483	-2.42%	38.52	-13.88%	0.0602	✗	1.11	21.6M	2022-01-21
CVC	Civic	Ethereum	0.3291	0.3211	-2.43%	0.2396	-27.20%	0.1215	✓	1.02	397k	2022-01-21
CELL	Cellframe	Ethereum	1.0647	1.0384	-2.47%	0.8913	-16.29%	0.0163	✓	1.01	108k	2022-01-21
BICO	Biconomy	Ethereum	3.62	3.5304	-2.48%	2.45	-32.32%	0.1561	✓	1.25	8.5M	2022-01-21
GTC	Gitcoin	Ethereum	10.98	10.6992	-2.56%	7.97	-27.41%	0.2649	✓	0.18	2.8M	2022-01-21
CRV	Curve DAO	Ethereum	5.35	5.209	-2.64%	3.31	-38.13%	0.2194	✓	1.40	32.4M	2022-01-21
CWEB	Coinweb	Ethereum	0.083638	0.08137	-2.71%	0.061424	-26.56%	0.1140	✓	1.00	2.4M	2022-01-21
CTSI	Cartesi	Ethereum	0.7145	0.694714	-2.77%	0.4811	-32.67%	0.1363	✓	1.38	2.7M	2022-01-21
ATOM	Cosmos Hub	Cosmos	40.44	39.3044	-2.81%	34.64	-14.34%	0.0320	✗	0.95	86.7M	2022-01-21
METRONOME	METRONOME		4.1356	3.9901	-3.52%	3.2277	-21.95%	0.0856	✓	0.76	2,257	2022-01-21
POWR	Powerledger	Ethereum	0.6272	0.604862	-3.56%	0.5351	-14.68%	0.1087	✗	1.38	736k	2022-01-21
DUSK	DUSK	Ethereum	0.9605	0.908743	-5.39%	0.6365	-33.73%	0.0623	✓	1.76	38.7M	2022-01-21
BFC	Bifrost	Ethereum	0.22239	0.208671	-6.17%	0.16704	-24.89%	0.0440	✓	1.59	5,360	2022-01-21

Δ columns are percentage price moves; alpha err and the hit column are in beta-adjusted log-return space, which is what the model actually predicts. “pending” means the horizon has not matured yet. Rows are capped for readability — add &limit=2000 to widen.