2022-02-27 · +30d

gru_s4 · in-sample — the model trained on this date · 151 tokens predicted

These numbers are in-sample. The model was trained on this date, so predicted-vs-actual agreement here is not evidence of skill.

+1d +7d +30d asset cohort only

rank IC

+0.2538

151 of 151 tokens assessed

long-short decile

+13.33%

realised beta-adjusted alpha

direction hit

56.3%

in alpha space · 6.6% on raw price

BTC over horizon

+25.82%

the unhedgeable market factor

Predicted vs actual (151 rows, sorted by pred)

token	name	chain	anchor px	pred px ▴	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d	vol 30d	target
API3	Api3	Ethereum	6.6	5.8833	-10.86%	5.701	-13.62%	0.1146	✓	0.36	2.2M	2022-03-29
FIDA	Bonfida	Solana	1.681	1.5244	-9.32%	1.941	+15.47%	0.0135	✓	0.99	76k	2022-03-29
PEOPLE	ConstitutionDAO	Ethereum	0.0605	0.054965	-9.15%	0.0802	+32.56%	0.0731	✓	1.96	76.7M	2022-03-29
BRISE	Bitgert	Ethereum	5.53e-7	5.03e-7	-9.13%	0.000001089	+96.78%	0.5430	✗	1.00	1.3M	2022-03-29
CELL	Cellframe	Ethereum	1.541	1.4045	-8.86%	1.6089	+4.41%	0.1950	✓	1.44	262k	2022-03-29
PRO	Propy	Ethereum	1.81	1.6691	-7.78%	1.6	-11.60%	0.4115	✓	1.61	502k	2022-03-29
NAKA	Nakamoto Games	Polygon	0.4116	0.382788	-7.00%	0.594	+44.31%	0.0377	✓	2.08	2.1M	2022-03-29
ORCA	Orca	Solana	2.41	2.2466	-6.78%	2.31	-4.15%	0.2018	✓	1.00	492k	2022-03-29
LUNA	Terra	Terra 2	72.51	67.8588	-6.41%	109.12	+50.49%	0.1531	✗	1.40	4.5M	2022-03-29
SUN	Sun Token	Tron	0.011286	0.010572	-6.32%	0.014685	+30.12%	0.0708	✗	1.12	25k	2022-03-29
ASTR	Astar	Ethereum	0.14	0.131522	-6.06%	0.141	+0.71%	0.1444	✓	0.93	44k	2022-03-29
SANTOS	Santos FC Fan Token	Binance Smart Chain	3.224	3.0332	-5.92%	6.443	+99.84%	0.4983	✗	1.11	687k	2022-03-29
METRONOME	METRONOME		2.23	2.0981	-5.91%	2.7431	+23.01%	0.0713	✗	0.86	26k	2022-03-29
MOVR	Moonriver	Base	61.5448	57.9833	-5.79%	71.4386	+16.08%	0.1418	✓	1.53	211k	2022-03-29
LEO	LEO Token	Ethereum	5.951	5.6069	-5.78%	5.9997	+0.82%	0.0223	✓	0.39	433k	2022-03-29
BAND	Band	Ethereum	3.452	3.2574	-5.64%	4.536	+31.40%	0.0196	✓	1.36	1.9M	2022-03-29
YFI	yearn.finance	Ethereum	19,385.43	18,294.38	-5.63%	23,320.96	+20.30%	0.0078	✓	1.02	5.6M	2022-03-29
ATOM	Cosmos Hub	Cosmos	26.8	25.2962	-5.61%	30.24	+12.84%	0.0880	✓	1.16	50.3M	2022-03-29
AGLD	Adventure Gold	Ethereum	1.179	1.1131	-5.59%	1.727	+46.48%	0.1590	✗	1.22	1.2M	2022-03-29
POWR	Powerledger	Ethereum	0.5151	0.486462	-5.56%	0.5773	+12.08%	0.0534	✓	0.98	643k	2022-03-29
STX	Stacks	native	1.12	1.0582	-5.52%	1.45	+29.46%	0.0161	✓	1.30	610k	2022-03-29
NMR	Numeraire	Ethereum	29.13	27.5234	-5.52%	32.72	+12.32%	0.0660	✓	1.04	1.5M	2022-03-29
WBTC	Wrapped Bitcoin	Ethereum	37,686.70	35,636.94	-5.44%	47,265.50	+25.42%	0.0596	✗	0.97	42k	2022-03-29
ACH	Alchemy Pay	Ethereum	0.046151	0.043727	-5.25%	0.045104	-2.27%	0.2437	✓	1.20	8.1M	2022-03-29
ORBS	Orbs	Ethereum	0.0644	0.061113	-5.10%	0.08818	+36.93%	0.1163	✗	1.09	12k	2022-03-29
KNC	Kyber Network Crystal	Ethereum	1.897	1.8002	-5.10%	3.4561	+82.19%	0.4943	✗	0.69	2.6M	2022-03-29
POKT	Pocket Network	Ethereum	0.7935	0.753902	-4.99%	1.1993	+51.14%	0.3388	✗	0.55	1.3M	2022-03-29
PSG	Paris Saint-Germain Fan Token	Solana	14.64	13.9178	-4.93%	13.95	-4.71%	0.1636	✓	0.72	2.0M	2022-03-29
CERE	Cere Network	Ethereum	0.0267	0.025396	-4.89%	0.03123	+16.97%	0.1303	✓	1.47	479k	2022-03-29
ARPA	ARPA	Ethereum	0.0698	0.066396	-4.88%	0.0861	+23.35%	0.0666	✓	1.42	1.0M	2022-03-29
XMR	Monero	Monero	150.62	143.3561	-4.82%	221.94	+47.35%	0.2056	✗	1.01	960k	2022-03-29
DIA	DIA	Ethereum	0.99	0.942981	-4.75%	1.05	+6.06%	0.0816	✗	0.11	286k	2022-03-29
DUSK	DUSK	Ethereum	0.3174	0.302449	-4.71%	0.4589	+44.58%	0.0147	✓	1.75	14.7M	2022-03-29
CBK	Cobak	Ethereum	2.379	2.2679	-4.67%	2.707	+13.79%	0.0651	✓	1.05	20k	2022-03-29
FTT	FTX	Ethereum	41.51	39.5978	-4.61%	51.11	+23.13%	0.0088	✓	1.15	19.7M	2022-03-29
ICP	Internet Computer	Ethereum	17.24	16.4594	-4.53%	22.13	+28.36%	0.0259	✓	1.18	21.6M	2022-03-29
CVC	Civic	Ethereum	0.2684	0.25636	-4.49%	0.3543	+32.00%	0.0105	✓	1.45	398k	2022-03-29
AVT	Aventus	Ethereum	2.14	2.0452	-4.43%	2.74	+28.04%	0.0628	✗	1.00	529k	2022-03-29
SUPER	SuperVerse	Ethereum	0.67	0.640829	-4.35%	0.78	+16.42%	0.2423	✓	1.91	995k	2022-03-29
DKA	dKargo	Ethereum	0.08363	0.08003	-4.30%	0.1123	+34.28%	0.0786	✗	1.13	45k	2022-03-29
FIL	Filecoin	Filecoin	20.38	19.5163	-4.24%	26.33	+29.20%	0.0093	✓	1.26	8.6M	2022-03-29
GTC	Gitcoin	Ethereum	5.93	5.6813	-4.19%	7.9	+33.22%	0.0144	✓	1.50	1.1M	2022-03-29
TRB	Tellor Tributes	Ethereum	19.91	19.0915	-4.11%	24.45	+22.80%	0.1278	✓	1.63	325k	2022-03-29
SKL	SKALE	Ethereum	0.115	0.110274	-4.11%	0.2131	+85.30%	0.3483	✗	1.35	2.9M	2022-03-29
IMX	Immutable	Ethereum	1.412	1.3545	-4.07%	2.696	+90.93%	0.4359	✗	1.10	3.4M	2022-03-29
AXS	Axie Infinity	Ethereum	47.98	46.0314	-4.06%	64.18	+33.76%	0.0221	✓	1.35	6.5M	2022-03-29
GODS	Gods Unchained	Ethereum	1.31	1.2571	-4.04%	1.49	+13.74%	0.1120	✓	1.23	934k	2022-03-29
UMA	UMA	Ethereum	4.795	4.6044	-3.97%	7.914	+65.05%	0.3121	✗	1.00	1.8M	2022-03-29
DYDX	dYdX	Cosmos	5.036	4.8371	-3.95%	5.768	+14.54%	0.0616	✓	1.03	189k	2022-03-29
NCT	PolySwarm	Ethereum	0.03182	0.030565	-3.95%	0.04201	+32.02%	0.1150	✗	0.88	1.3M	2022-03-29
LPT	Livepeer	Ethereum	23.96	23.0229	-3.91%	29.4	+22.70%	0.1052	✓	1.52	1.6M	2022-03-29
MTL	Metal DAO	Metal L2	1.43	1.3745	-3.88%	1.952	+36.50%	0.0665	✗	1.24	1.8M	2022-03-29
OGN	Origin Token	Ethereum	0.28	0.26916	-3.87%	0.598	+113.57%	0.4727	✗	1.42	2.1M	2022-03-29
XPR	XPR Network	Ethereum	0.00965	0.009281	-3.82%	0.01376	+42.59%	0.0550	✗	1.48	2.7M	2022-03-29
RIF	Rootstock Infrastructure Framework	Ethereum	0.1447	0.139176	-3.82%	0.1676	+15.83%	0.0619	✓	1.08	420k	2022-03-29
BAR	FC Barcelona Fan Token	Solana	6.32	6.0793	-3.81%	9.1	+43.99%	0.2177	✗	0.81	435k	2022-03-29
BAT	Basic Attention	Ethereum	0.66823	0.643234	-3.74%	0.89389	+33.77%	0.0172	✓	1.51	211k	2022-03-29
DODO	DODO	Ethereum	0.416	0.400506	-3.72%	0.513	+23.32%	0.0684	✓	1.38	4.2M	2022-03-29
SPELL	Spell	Ethereum	0.00404	0.00389	-3.70%	0.0043	+6.44%	0.3222	✓	1.84	11.3M	2022-03-29
QTUM	Qtum	Qtum	5.8667	5.6558	-3.59%	8.3537	+42.39%	0.0578	✗	1.45	184k	2022-03-29
MED	Medibloc	Osmosis	0.03926	0.037857	-3.57%	0.0491	+25.06%	0.0090	✓	1.09	29k	2022-03-29
BTTC	BTTC		0.00000184	0.000001774	-3.57%	0.0000021	+14.13%	0.0076	✓	0.70	14.0M	2022-03-29
XYO	XYO Network	Ethereum	0.01839	0.017739	-3.54%	0.0204	+10.93%	0.1116	✓	1.09	2.2M	2022-03-29
1INCH	1INCH	Ethereum	1.384	1.3351	-3.53%	1.794	+29.62%	0.0149	✓	1.22	939k	2022-03-29
CITY	Manchester City Fan Token	Solana	9.35	9.0207	-3.52%	16.06	+71.76%	0.4195	✗	0.69	917k	2022-03-29
BFC	Bifrost	Ethereum	0.15123	0.145959	-3.49%	0.17305	+14.43%	0.1385	✓	1.34	27k	2022-03-29
XEC	eCash	native	0.00007235	0.000069837	-3.47%	0.00009436	+30.42%	0.0260	✓	1.20	4.5M	2022-03-29
PORTO	FC Porto	Binance Smart Chain	2.859	2.7625	-3.38%	4.592	+60.62%	0.2932	✗	0.94	3.3M	2022-03-29
ETC	Ethereum Classic	native	27.37	26.4559	-3.34%	49.3	+80.12%	0.3606	✗	1.14	5.1M	2022-03-29
UOS	Ultra	Ethereum	1.1719	1.1332	-3.30%	1.2858	+9.72%	0.2098	✓	1.46	2.6M	2022-03-29
LINK	Chainlink	Ethereum	13.65	13.2024	-3.28%	16.99	+24.47%	0.0384	✓	1.27	52.3M	2022-03-29
XTZ	Tezos	Tezos	3.1219	3.0199	-3.27%	3.8004	+21.73%	0.0836	✓	1.37	2.1M	2022-03-29
AMP	Amp	Ethereum	0.02689	0.026016	-3.25%	0.02727	+1.41%	0.1372	✓	0.80	4.3M	2022-03-29
OG	OG Fan Token	Solana	3.002	2.9048	-3.24%	4.125	+37.41%	0.1354	✗	0.94	477k	2022-03-29
RLC	iExec RLC	Ethereum	1.6	1.5493	-3.17%	2.3	+43.75%	0.0842	✗	1.35	1.9M	2022-03-29
HIVE	Hive	native	0.8849	0.856978	-3.16%	1.1796	+33.30%	0.0290	✓	1.27	1.9M	2022-03-29
ZRX	0x Protocol	Ethereum	0.521555	0.505288	-3.12%	0.729966	+39.96%	0.0874	✗	1.22	2.9M	2022-03-29
ALGO	Algorand	Algorand	0.7983	0.773529	-3.10%	0.9232	+15.65%	0.1088	✓	1.24	21.7M	2022-03-29
ENJ	Enjin Coin	Ethereum	1.377	1.3343	-3.10%	1.75	+27.09%	0.0842	✓	1.55	897k	2022-03-29
ADA	Cardano	Cardano	0.8569	0.830732	-3.05%	1.1909	+38.98%	0.0911	✗	1.17	94.8M	2022-03-29
CRV	Curve DAO	Ethereum	2.185	2.1192	-3.01%	2.81	+28.60%	0.0803	✓	1.58	13.2M	2022-03-29
CTSI	Cartesi	Ethereum	0.3419	0.331773	-2.96%	0.4224	+23.54%	0.1053	✓	1.51	1.3M	2022-03-29
NANO	nanopay	Base	1.7425	1.6917	-2.92%	2.499	+43.42%	0.1002	✗	1.26	181k	2022-03-29
MASK	Mask Network	Ethereum	4.21	4.0899	-2.85%	5.74	+36.34%	0.0315	✓	1.61	432k	2022-03-29
PHA	PHALA	Ethereum	0.217	0.210948	-2.79%	0.284	+30.88%	0.0924	✗	0.89	59k	2022-03-29
XLM	Stellar	Stellar	0.181008	0.175977	-2.78%	0.233124	+28.79%	0.0169	✓	1.15	19.2M	2022-03-29
MINA	Mina Protocol	native	1.97	1.9154	-2.77%	2.62	+32.99%	0.0277	✓	1.24	343k	2022-03-29
ENS	Ethereum Name Service	Ethereum	13.22	12.8577	-2.74%	19.21	+45.31%	0.0476	✗	1.54	2.5M	2022-03-29
LRC	Loopring	Ethereum	0.7266	0.707071	-2.69%	1.2915	+77.75%	0.2460	✗	1.55	270k	2022-03-29
DNT	district0x	Ethereum	0.0675	0.065688	-2.68%	0.0857	+26.96%	0.0206	✓	1.07	163k	2022-03-29
DOGE	Dogecoin	Dogecoin	0.123115	0.119843	-2.66%	0.144391	+17.28%	0.0461	✓	1.01	3.7M	2022-03-29
DASH	Dash	Dash	88.3	85.9557	-2.65%	130.31	+47.58%	0.1470	✗	1.17	1.5M	2022-03-29
BNT	Bancor Network	Ethereum	2.17	2.1131	-2.62%	2.76	+27.19%	0.0310	✗	1.03	254k	2022-03-29
XYM	Symbol	native	0.141	0.13733	-2.60%	0.1493	+5.89%	0.1105	✓	0.85	299k	2022-03-29
VSYS	V.SYSTEMS	native	0.01158	0.01128	-2.59%	0.01373	+18.57%	0.0118	✓	0.80	13k	2022-03-29
LSK	Lisk	Ethereum	1.5293	1.4898	-2.59%	2.6166	+71.09%	0.3257	✗	1.03	69k	2022-03-29
AVAX	Avalanche	Avalanche	75.09	73.2227	-2.49%	92.79	+23.57%	0.1190	✓	1.55	113.8M	2022-03-29
SNX	Synthetix	Ethereum	3.741	3.6515	-2.39%	5.717	+52.82%	0.1421	✗	1.33	2.3M	2022-03-29
MANA	Decentraland	Ethereum	2.5576	2.4968	-2.38%	2.7	+5.57%	0.2199	✓	1.30	3.1M	2022-03-29
SHIB	Shiba Inu	Ethereum	0.00002342	0.00002288	-2.31%	0.00002734	+16.74%	0.1315	✓	1.35	3.8M	2022-03-29
COMP	Compound	Ethereum	108.08	105.6457	-2.25%	147.68	+36.64%	0.0394	✗	1.29	64k	2022-03-29
DEXE	DeXe	Ethereum	6.06	5.9236	-2.25%	7.08	+16.83%	0.0712	✗	0.47	1.1M	2022-03-29
CWEB	Coinweb	Ethereum	0.022401	0.021899	-2.24%	0.036781	+64.19%	0.2838	✗	1.02	114k	2022-03-29
ZEC	Zcash	Zcash	102.66	100.3621	-2.24%	196.15	+91.07%	0.4047	✗	1.16	7.4M	2022-03-29
XEM	NEM	native	0.1	0.097788	-2.21%	0.1222	+22.20%	0.0184	✓	1.05	38k	2022-03-29
OMG	OMG Network	Ethereum	3.8286	3.7448	-2.19%	5.6566	+47.75%	0.1322	✗	1.22	269k	2022-03-29
QNT	Quant	Ethereum	105.8	103.5095	-2.16%	144.61	+36.68%	0.0928	✗	1.05	6.3M	2022-03-29
CTK	Shentu	Osmosis	1.081	1.0576	-2.16%	1.383	+27.94%	0.0385	✓	1.34	2.8M	2022-03-29
IOTA	IOTA	IOTA	0.7097	0.694499	-2.14%	0.8635	+21.67%	0.0431	✓	1.14	9.6M	2022-03-29
CHZ	Chiliz	Ethereum	0.1674	0.163849	-2.12%	0.2943	+75.81%	0.2551	✗	1.44	2.7M	2022-03-29
BTC	Bitcoin	Bitcoin	37,717.08	36,917.73	-2.12%	47,454.19	+25.82%	0.0214	✓	1.00	603.6M	2022-03-29
GT	Gate	Ethereum	6.3355	6.2035	-2.08%	6.7628	+6.74%	0.0914	✓	0.77	2.8M	2022-03-29
LAZIO	Lazio Fan Token	Binance Smart Chain	2.8883	2.8291	-2.05%	4.3834	+51.76%	0.2164	✗	0.96	2.3M	2022-03-29
COTI	COTI	Ethereum	0.1985	0.194516	-2.01%	0.2879	+45.04%	0.0377	✗	1.54	2.6M	2022-03-29
SUSHI	Sushi	Ethereum	3.12	3.0574	-2.01%	4.22	+35.26%	0.0179	✓	1.33	6.8M	2022-03-29
KCS	KuCoin	native	19.035	18.657	-1.99%	21.714	+14.07%	0.0957	✓	1.08	9.3M	2022-03-29
ASR	AS Roma Fan Token	Solana	2.647	2.5963	-1.92%	4.083	+54.25%	0.2612	✗	0.83	213k	2022-03-29
JUV	Juventus Fan Token	Solana	5.65	5.5419	-1.91%	6.82	+20.71%	0.0158	✓	0.83	430k	2022-03-29
DOT	Polkadot	Polkadot	17.5	17.1768	-1.85%	22.44	+28.23%	0.0413	✓	1.34	26.4M	2022-03-29
ZEN	Horizen	Base	32.64	32.0376	-1.85%	49.11	+50.46%	0.0831	✗	1.50	280k	2022-03-29
SC	Siacoin	native	0.00867	0.008512	-1.82%	0.01179	+35.99%	0.0156	✓	1.35	546k	2022-03-29
ANKR	Ankr Network	Ethereum	0.06333	0.062188	-1.80%	0.08728	+37.82%	0.0410	✗	1.30	64k	2022-03-29
ACM	AC Milan Fan Token	Solana	4.06	3.9904	-1.71%	7.21	+77.59%	0.3966	✗	0.85	414k	2022-03-29
ETH	Ethereum	Ethereum	2,618.01	2,573.65	-1.69%	3,401.71	+29.93%	0.0299	✗	1.08	525.4M	2022-03-29
AUCTION	Bounce	Ethereum	12	11.7976	-1.69%	15.96	+33.00%	0.0569	✗	1.07	331k	2022-03-29
GRT	The Graph	Ethereum	0.3363	0.330659	-1.68%	0.4882	+45.17%	0.0516	✗	1.47	8.3M	2022-03-29
TRX	TRON	Tron	0.058112	0.057155	-1.65%	0.069428	+19.47%	0.0034	✓	0.83	270k	2022-03-29
RAD	Radworks	Ethereum	4.3	4.2312	-1.60%	5.16	+20.00%	0.0333	✓	1.01	696k	2022-03-29
OXT	Orchid Protocol	Ethereum	0.2326	0.229231	-1.45%	0.2784	+19.69%	0.0367	✓	1.01	1.9M	2022-03-29
XVG	Verge	native	0.00923	0.009104	-1.37%	0.01201	+30.12%	0.0261	✓	1.32	1.2M	2022-03-29
KSM	Kusama	Hydration	117.66	116.0815	-1.34%	184.23	+56.58%	0.1859	✗	1.20	930k	2022-03-29
ASM	Assemble AI	Ethereum	0.04436	0.043799	-1.26%	0.05599	+26.22%	0.0543	✓	1.31	703k	2022-03-29
LCX	LCX	Ethereum	0.0773	0.076388	-1.18%	0.1238	+60.16%	0.1148	✗	1.60	633k	2022-03-29
TWT	Trust Wallet	Binance Smart Chain	0.4859	0.48028	-1.16%	1.1997	+146.90%	0.6049	✗	1.35	2.2M	2022-03-29
SOL	Solana	Solana	85.7	84.8453	-1.00%	111.64	+30.27%	0.0236	✓	1.30	127.4M	2022-03-29
UNI	Uniswap	Ethereum	9.77	9.6772	-0.95%	11.25	+15.15%	0.1500	✓	1.31	10.8M	2022-03-29
GLMR	Moonbeam	Base	2.358	2.3359	-0.94%	3.305	+40.16%	0.0233	✗	1.41	584k	2022-03-29
TRAC	OriginTrail	Ethereum	0.4426	0.438626	-0.90%	0.6938	+56.76%	0.1245	✗	1.45	521k	2022-03-29
BEL	Bella Protocol	Ethereum	0.812	0.804998	-0.86%	1.065	+31.16%	0.0478	✓	1.43	2.1M	2022-03-29
TKO	Tokocrypto	Binance Smart Chain	0.648	0.64314	-0.75%	0.77	+18.83%	0.0913	✓	1.18	2.4M	2022-03-29
STORJ	Storj	Ethereum	0.9359	0.930316	-0.60%	1.351	+44.35%	0.0421	✗	1.44	165k	2022-03-29
GITCOIN	GITCOIN		5.854	5.8252	-0.49%	7.838	+33.89%	0.0394	✓	1.46	27k	2022-03-29
BCHSV	Bitcoin Cash SV		81.71	81.3817	-0.40%	97.8	+19.69%	0.0210	✓	0.89	908k	2022-03-29
EWT	Energy Web Token	Ethereum	4.682	4.6683	-0.29%	6.172	+31.82%	0.0847	✗	0.85	65k	2022-03-29
BICO	Biconomy	Ethereum	1.197	1.1952	-0.15%	1.69	+41.19%	0.0314	✗	1.37	2.0M	2022-03-29
AAVE	Aave	Ethereum	131.61	131.511	-0.08%	222.76	+69.26%	0.1898	✗	1.47	6.5M	2022-03-29
ATM	Atletico Madrid Fan Token	Solana	4.64	4.6424	+0.05%	7.67	+65.30%	0.3243	✓	0.77	483k	2022-03-29
LTC	Litecoin	Litecoin	103.05	103.6336	+0.57%	130.08	+26.23%	0.0495	✗	1.21	28.8M	2022-03-29
BCH	Bitcoin Cash	Bitcoin Cash	304.19	306.2806	+0.69%	373.24	+22.70%	0.0362	✗	1.02	7.2M	2022-03-29
XVS	Venus	Ethereum	8.4	8.4882	+1.05%	11.08	+31.90%	0.0335	✗	1.31	3.2M	2022-03-29
JASMY	JasmyCoin	Ethereum	0.01609	0.016272	+1.13%	0.03452	+114.54%	0.3692	✓	1.67	12.7M	2022-03-29

Δ columns are percentage price moves; alpha err and the hit column are in beta-adjusted log-return space, which is what the model actually predicts. “pending” means the horizon has not matured yet. Rows are capped for readability — add &limit=2000 to widen.