2022-02-27 · +1d

gru_s4 · in-sample — the model trained on this date · 151 tokens predicted

These numbers are in-sample. The model was trained on this date, so predicted-vs-actual agreement here is not evidence of skill.

+1d +7d +30d asset cohort only

rank IC

-0.0579

151 of 151 tokens assessed

long-short decile

-3.41%

realised beta-adjusted alpha

direction hit

72.8%

in alpha space · 18.5% on raw price

BTC over horizon

+14.52%

the unhedgeable market factor

Predicted vs actual (151 rows, sorted by pred)

token	name	chain	anchor px	pred px ▴	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d	vol 30d	target
SANTOS	Santos FC Fan Token	Binance Smart Chain	3.224	3.1349	-2.76%	3.317	+2.88%	0.0941	✓	1.11	687k	2022-02-28
BAR	FC Barcelona Fan Token	Solana	6.32	6.2023	-1.86%	7.55	+19.46%	0.0870	✗	0.81	435k	2022-02-28
CBK	Cobak	Ethereum	2.379	2.3489	-1.27%	2.477	+4.12%	0.0898	✓	1.05	20k	2022-02-28
AGLD	Adventure Gold	Ethereum	1.179	1.1659	-1.11%	1.236	+4.83%	0.1070	✓	1.22	1.2M	2022-02-28
API3	Api3	Ethereum	6.6	6.5395	-0.92%	7.529	+14.08%	0.0918	✗	0.36	2.2M	2022-02-28
LUNA	Terra	Terra 2	72.51	71.8566	-0.90%	91.38	+26.02%	0.0503	✗	1.40	4.5M	2022-02-28
ASR	AS Roma Fan Token	Solana	2.647	2.6261	-0.79%	3.115	+17.68%	0.0576	✗	0.83	213k	2022-02-28
LAZIO	Lazio Fan Token	Binance Smart Chain	2.8883	2.8673	-0.73%	3.1104	+7.69%	0.0493	✓	0.96	2.3M	2022-02-28
BRISE	Bitgert	Ethereum	5.53e-7	5.49e-7	-0.71%	6.40e-7	+15.75%	0.0178	✗	1.00	1.3M	2022-02-28
JUV	Juventus Fan Token	Solana	5.65	5.6105	-0.70%	6.6	+16.81%	0.0493	✗	0.83	430k	2022-02-28
OG	OG Fan Token	Solana	3.002	2.9815	-0.68%	3.233	+7.69%	0.0461	✓	0.94	477k	2022-02-28
PEOPLE	ConstitutionDAO	Ethereum	0.0605	0.060096	-0.67%	0.0703	+16.20%	0.1093	✓	1.96	76.7M	2022-02-28
CELL	Cellframe	Ethereum	1.541	1.5326	-0.54%	1.6754	+8.72%	0.1062	✓	1.44	262k	2022-02-28
ASTR	Astar	Ethereum	0.14	0.139295	-0.50%	0.132	-5.71%	0.1801	✓	0.93	44k	2022-02-28
CITY	Manchester City Fan Token	Solana	9.35	9.3071	-0.46%	10.15	+8.56%	0.0062	✓	0.69	917k	2022-02-28
DIA	DIA	Ethereum	0.99	0.985647	-0.44%	1.07	+8.08%	0.0668	✗	0.11	286k	2022-02-28
FIL	Filecoin	Filecoin	20.38	20.2921	-0.43%	21.72	+6.58%	0.1033	✓	1.26	8.6M	2022-02-28
NMR	Numeraire	Ethereum	29.13	29.0081	-0.42%	30.9	+6.08%	0.0779	✓	1.04	1.5M	2022-02-28
PORTO	FC Porto	Binance Smart Chain	2.859	2.8476	-0.40%	3.1196	+9.12%	0.0357	✓	0.94	3.3M	2022-02-28
ATM	Atletico Madrid Fan Token	Solana	4.64	4.6225	-0.38%	5.51	+18.75%	0.0707	✗	0.77	483k	2022-02-28
ACM	AC Milan Fan Token	Solana	4.06	4.0454	-0.36%	4.565	+12.44%	0.0057	✗	0.85	414k	2022-02-28
CERE	Cere Network	Ethereum	0.0267	0.02661	-0.34%	0.029	+8.61%	0.1130	✓	1.47	479k	2022-02-28
PSG	Paris Saint-Germain Fan Token	Solana	14.64	14.5907	-0.34%	16.18	+10.52%	0.0054	✗	0.72	2.0M	2022-02-28
ORBS	Orbs	Ethereum	0.0644	0.064184	-0.34%	0.0695	+7.92%	0.0682	✓	1.09	12k	2022-02-28
TRB	Tellor Tributes	Ethereum	19.91	19.8438	-0.33%	21.16	+6.28%	0.1572	✓	1.63	325k	2022-02-28
ATOM	Cosmos Hub	Cosmos	26.8	26.714	-0.32%	31.38	+17.09%	0.0036	✗	1.16	50.3M	2022-02-28
XEM	NEM	native	0.1	0.099692	-0.31%	0.1081	+8.10%	0.0615	✓	1.05	38k	2022-02-28
OXT	Orchid Protocol	Ethereum	0.2326	0.231886	-0.31%	0.2454	+5.50%	0.0797	✓	1.01	1.9M	2022-02-28
KNC	Kyber Network Crystal	Ethereum	1.897	1.8912	-0.31%	2.4391	+28.58%	0.1612	✗	0.69	2.6M	2022-02-28
XMR	Monero	Monero	150.62	150.1907	-0.28%	170.31	+13.07%	0.0109	✓	1.01	960k	2022-02-28
ACH	Alchemy Pay	Ethereum	0.046151	0.046022	-0.28%	0.049264	+6.75%	0.0941	✓	1.20	8.1M	2022-02-28
COMP	Compound	Ethereum	108.08	107.7853	-0.27%	120.75	+11.72%	0.0609	✓	1.29	64k	2022-02-28
CVC	Civic	Ethereum	0.2684	0.26768	-0.27%	0.2945	+9.72%	0.1017	✓	1.45	398k	2022-02-28
CWEB	Coinweb	Ethereum	0.022401	0.022342	-0.26%	0.022655	+1.13%	0.1247	✓	1.02	114k	2022-02-28
BAND	Band	Ethereum	3.452	3.4431	-0.26%	3.934	+13.96%	0.0506	✓	1.36	1.9M	2022-02-28
NAKA	Nakamoto Games	Polygon	0.4116	0.410558	-0.25%	0.504	+22.45%	0.0766	✓	2.08	2.1M	2022-02-28
POWR	Powerledger	Ethereum	0.5151	0.513801	-0.25%	0.5607	+8.85%	0.0452	✓	0.98	643k	2022-02-28
LPT	Livepeer	Ethereum	23.96	23.9014	-0.24%	26.36	+10.02%	0.1085	✓	1.52	1.6M	2022-02-28
WBTC	Wrapped Bitcoin	Ethereum	37,686.70	37,597.88	-0.24%	43,136.20	+14.46%	0.0059	✗	0.97	42k	2022-02-28
TWT	Trust Wallet	Binance Smart Chain	0.4859	0.484773	-0.23%	0.5696	+17.23%	0.0221	✓	1.35	2.2M	2022-02-28
METRONOME	METRONOME		2.23	2.2249	-0.23%	2.1929	-1.66%	0.1306	✓	0.86	26k	2022-02-28
HIVE	Hive	native	0.8849	0.882905	-0.23%	0.9803	+10.78%	0.0669	✓	1.27	1.9M	2022-02-28
FTT	FTX	Ethereum	41.51	41.4181	-0.22%	45.95	+10.70%	0.0520	✓	1.15	19.7M	2022-02-28
BNT	Bancor Network	Ethereum	2.17	2.1655	-0.21%	2.44	+12.44%	0.0200	✓	1.03	254k	2022-02-28
MTL	Metal DAO	Metal L2	1.43	1.427	-0.21%	1.571	+9.86%	0.0717	✓	1.24	1.8M	2022-02-28
RIF	Rootstock Infrastructure Framework	Ethereum	0.1447	0.144399	-0.21%	0.1612	+11.40%	0.0362	✓	1.08	420k	2022-02-28
BAT	Basic Attention	Ethereum	0.66823	0.666869	-0.20%	0.74117	+10.92%	0.0988	✓	1.51	211k	2022-02-28
UNI	Uniswap	Ethereum	9.77	9.7502	-0.20%	10.53	+7.78%	0.1005	✓	1.31	10.8M	2022-02-28
AMP	Amp	Ethereum	0.02689	0.026837	-0.20%	0.02937	+9.22%	0.0186	✓	0.80	4.3M	2022-02-28
ZEC	Zcash	Zcash	102.66	102.4591	-0.20%	118.68	+15.60%	0.0097	✓	1.16	7.4M	2022-02-28
UOS	Ultra	Ethereum	1.1719	1.1696	-0.19%	1.3278	+13.30%	0.0716	✓	1.46	2.6M	2022-02-28
DODO	DODO	Ethereum	0.416	0.415197	-0.19%	0.461	+10.82%	0.0818	✓	1.38	4.2M	2022-02-28
QTUM	Qtum	Qtum	5.8667	5.8556	-0.19%	6.4925	+10.67%	0.0929	✓	1.45	184k	2022-02-28
YFI	yearn.finance	Ethereum	19,385.43	19,348.81	-0.19%	21,589.29	+11.37%	0.0291	✓	1.02	5.6M	2022-02-28
PRO	Propy	Ethereum	1.81	1.8067	-0.18%	1.84	+1.66%	0.1997	✓	1.61	502k	2022-02-28
ENJ	Enjin Coin	Ethereum	1.377	1.3745	-0.18%	1.566	+13.73%	0.0794	✓	1.55	897k	2022-02-28
KCS	KuCoin	native	19.035	19.0014	-0.18%	20.677	+8.63%	0.0616	✓	1.08	9.3M	2022-02-28
MANA	Decentraland	Ethereum	2.5576	2.5532	-0.17%	2.8507	+11.46%	0.0658	✓	1.30	3.1M	2022-02-28
SC	Siacoin	native	0.00867	0.008655	-0.17%	0.00968	+11.65%	0.0712	✓	1.35	546k	2022-02-28
LEO	LEO Token	Ethereum	5.951	5.9412	-0.17%	5.9258	-0.42%	0.0557	✓	0.39	433k	2022-02-28
XYO	XYO Network	Ethereum	0.01839	0.01836	-0.16%	0.0214	+16.37%	0.0048	✗	1.09	2.2M	2022-02-28
DNT	district0x	Ethereum	0.0675	0.067393	-0.16%	0.073	+8.15%	0.0649	✓	1.07	163k	2022-02-28
UMA	UMA	Ethereum	4.795	4.7874	-0.16%	7.228	+50.74%	0.2765	✗	1.00	1.8M	2022-02-28
MED	Medibloc	Osmosis	0.03926	0.039198	-0.16%	0.04194	+6.83%	0.0806	✓	1.09	29k	2022-02-28
XPR	XPR Network	Ethereum	0.00965	0.009635	-0.16%	0.01099	+13.89%	0.0684	✓	1.48	2.7M	2022-02-28
ARPA	ARPA	Ethereum	0.0698	0.069695	-0.15%	0.078	+11.75%	0.0801	✓	1.42	1.0M	2022-02-28
CTK	Shentu	Osmosis	1.081	1.0794	-0.15%	1.164	+7.68%	0.1056	✓	1.34	2.8M	2022-02-28
DKA	dKargo	Ethereum	0.08363	0.083509	-0.14%	0.09213	+10.16%	0.0553	✓	1.13	45k	2022-02-28
VSYS	V.SYSTEMS	native	0.01158	0.011563	-0.14%	0.01231	+6.30%	0.0465	✓	0.80	13k	2022-02-28
ZEN	Horizen	Base	32.64	32.5932	-0.14%	37.91	+16.15%	0.0520	✓	1.50	280k	2022-02-28
SUPER	SuperVerse	Ethereum	0.67	0.669085	-0.14%	0.75	+11.94%	0.1449	✓	1.91	995k	2022-02-28
DEXE	DeXe	Ethereum	6.06	6.052	-0.13%	6.6	+8.91%	0.0234	✗	0.47	1.1M	2022-02-28
ENS	Ethereum Name Service	Ethereum	13.22	13.2031	-0.13%	15.37	+16.26%	0.0570	✓	1.54	2.5M	2022-02-28
XLM	Stellar	Stellar	0.181008	0.180779	-0.13%	0.197675	+9.21%	0.0666	✓	1.15	19.2M	2022-02-28
RLC	iExec RLC	Ethereum	1.6	1.598	-0.13%	1.86	+16.25%	0.0316	✓	1.35	1.9M	2022-02-28
STORJ	Storj	Ethereum	0.9359	0.934752	-0.12%	1.0426	+11.40%	0.0861	✓	1.44	165k	2022-02-28
XVG	Verge	native	0.00923	0.009219	-0.12%	0.01037	+12.35%	0.0613	✓	1.32	1.2M	2022-02-28
ICP	Internet Computer	Ethereum	17.24	17.2194	-0.12%	20.13	+16.76%	0.0033	✓	1.18	21.6M	2022-02-28
PHA	PHALA	Ethereum	0.217	0.216742	-0.12%	0.236	+8.76%	0.0358	✓	0.89	59k	2022-02-28
XYM	Symbol	native	0.141	0.140834	-0.12%	0.1531	+8.58%	0.0311	✓	0.85	299k	2022-02-28
OGN	Origin Token	Ethereum	0.28	0.279699	-0.11%	0.308	+10.00%	0.0958	✓	1.42	2.1M	2022-02-28
ALGO	Algorand	Algorand	0.7983	0.797445	-0.11%	0.8684	+8.78%	0.0834	✓	1.24	21.7M	2022-02-28
IOTA	IOTA	IOTA	0.7097	0.708961	-0.10%	0.7967	+12.26%	0.0373	✓	1.14	9.6M	2022-02-28
DOT	Polkadot	Polkadot	17.5	17.4821	-0.10%	18.95	+8.29%	0.1015	✓	1.34	26.4M	2022-02-28
1INCH	1INCH	Ethereum	1.384	1.3826	-0.10%	1.505	+8.74%	0.0808	✓	1.22	939k	2022-02-28
LINK	Chainlink	Ethereum	13.65	13.6364	-0.10%	15.14	+10.92%	0.0670	✓	1.27	52.3M	2022-02-28
BTTC	BTTC		0.00000184	0.000001838	-0.10%	0.00000199	+8.15%	0.0156	✓	0.70	14.0M	2022-02-28
ANKR	Ankr Network	Ethereum	0.06333	0.063268	-0.10%	0.07201	+13.71%	0.0465	✓	1.30	64k	2022-02-28
GODS	Gods Unchained	Ethereum	1.31	1.3087	-0.10%	1.36	+3.82%	0.1280	✓	1.23	934k	2022-02-28
XEC	eCash	native	0.00007235	0.000072281	-0.10%	0.00007869	+8.76%	0.0773	✓	1.20	4.5M	2022-02-28
LSK	Lisk	Ethereum	1.5293	1.5279	-0.10%	1.7163	+12.22%	0.0240	✓	1.03	69k	2022-02-28
ASM	Assemble AI	Ethereum	0.04436	0.044321	-0.09%	0.04871	+9.81%	0.0825	✓	1.31	703k	2022-02-28
ETH	Ethereum	Ethereum	2,618.01	2,615.78	-0.09%	2,923.08	+11.65%	0.0360	✓	1.08	525.4M	2022-02-28
BEL	Bella Protocol	Ethereum	0.812	0.811313	-0.08%	0.877	+8.00%	0.1156	✓	1.43	2.1M	2022-02-28
MOVR	Moonriver	Base	61.5448	61.4928	-0.08%	67.763	+10.10%	0.1098	✓	1.53	211k	2022-02-28
RAD	Radworks	Ethereum	4.3	4.2964	-0.08%	4.85	+12.79%	0.0156	✓	1.01	696k	2022-02-28
DOGE	Dogecoin	Dogecoin	0.123115	0.123012	-0.08%	0.133451	+8.40%	0.0558	✓	1.01	3.7M	2022-02-28
SKL	SKALE	Ethereum	0.115	0.114905	-0.08%	0.1303	+13.30%	0.0575	✓	1.35	2.9M	2022-02-28
TRX	TRON	Tron	0.058112	0.058064	-0.08%	0.061786	+6.32%	0.0507	✓	0.83	270k	2022-02-28
POKT	Pocket Network	Ethereum	0.7935	0.792855	-0.08%	0.7584	-4.42%	0.1185	✓	0.55	1.3M	2022-02-28
GTC	Gitcoin	Ethereum	5.93	5.9256	-0.07%	6.79	+14.50%	0.0669	✓	1.50	1.1M	2022-02-28
ADA	Cardano	Cardano	0.8569	0.856365	-0.06%	0.964	+12.50%	0.0404	✓	1.17	94.8M	2022-02-28
QNT	Quant	Ethereum	105.8	105.7359	-0.06%	115.74	+9.40%	0.0522	✓	1.05	6.3M	2022-02-28
ORCA	Orca	Solana	2.41	2.4085	-0.06%	2.64	+9.54%	0.0438	✓	1.00	492k	2022-02-28
DASH	Dash	Dash	88.3	88.2465	-0.06%	100.51	+13.83%	0.0287	✓	1.17	1.5M	2022-02-28
AUCTION	Bounce	Ethereum	12	11.9933	-0.06%	14.2	+18.33%	0.0241	✗	1.07	331k	2022-02-28
AVAX	Avalanche	Avalanche	75.09	75.0494	-0.05%	84.59	+12.65%	0.0904	✓	1.55	113.8M	2022-02-28
ETC	Ethereum Classic	native	27.37	27.3554	-0.05%	30.53	+11.55%	0.0447	✓	1.14	5.1M	2022-02-28
XTZ	Tezos	Tezos	3.1219	3.1203	-0.05%	3.5483	+13.66%	0.0565	✓	1.37	2.1M	2022-02-28
MINA	Mina Protocol	native	1.97	1.9691	-0.05%	2.21	+12.18%	0.0531	✓	1.24	343k	2022-02-28
OMG	OMG Network	Ethereum	3.8286	3.827	-0.04%	4.2345	+10.60%	0.0643	✓	1.22	269k	2022-02-28
NCT	PolySwarm	Ethereum	0.03182	0.031808	-0.04%	0.03503	+10.09%	0.0234	✓	0.88	1.3M	2022-02-28
ZRX	0x Protocol	Ethereum	0.521555	0.521361	-0.04%	0.575051	+10.26%	0.0676	✓	1.22	2.9M	2022-02-28
GRT	The Graph	Ethereum	0.3363	0.336181	-0.04%	0.3772	+12.16%	0.0844	✓	1.47	8.3M	2022-02-28
DYDX	dYdX	Cosmos	5.036	5.0343	-0.03%	5.875	+16.66%	0.0142	✗	1.03	189k	2022-02-28
BCH	Bitcoin Cash	Bitcoin Cash	304.19	304.0919	-0.03%	339.27	+11.53%	0.0286	✓	1.02	7.2M	2022-02-28
BTC	Bitcoin	Bitcoin	37,717.08	37,706.12	-0.03%	43,192.66	+14.52%	0.0003	✗	1.00	603.6M	2022-02-28
STX	Stacks	native	1.12	1.1197	-0.02%	1.25	+11.61%	0.0664	✓	1.30	610k	2022-02-28
SUN	Sun Token	Tron	0.011286	0.011284	-0.02%	0.012148	+7.64%	0.0784	✓	1.12	25k	2022-02-28
TKO	Tokocrypto	Binance Smart Chain	0.648	0.647868	-0.02%	0.697	+7.56%	0.0871	✓	1.18	2.4M	2022-02-28
SUSHI	Sushi	Ethereum	3.12	3.1194	-0.02%	3.54	+13.46%	0.0532	✓	1.33	6.8M	2022-02-28
CTSI	Cartesi	Ethereum	0.3419	0.341845	-0.02%	0.3943	+15.33%	0.0620	✓	1.51	1.3M	2022-02-28
FIDA	Bonfida	Solana	1.681	1.6808	-0.01%	1.836	+9.22%	0.0463	✓	0.99	76k	2022-02-28
GITCOIN	GITCOIN		5.854	5.8533	-0.01%	6.75	+15.31%	0.0559	✓	1.46	27k	2022-02-28
NANO	nanopay	Base	1.7425	1.7423	-0.01%	1.9381	+11.23%	0.0647	✓	1.26	181k	2022-02-28
AAVE	Aave	Ethereum	131.61	131.6067	-0.00%	145.83	+10.80%	0.0964	✓	1.47	6.5M	2022-02-28
GT	Gate	Ethereum	6.3355	6.3355	-0.00%	6.71	+5.91%	0.0475	✓	0.77	2.8M	2022-02-28
BFC	Bifrost	Ethereum	0.15123	0.151238	+0.01%	0.16639	+10.02%	0.0868	✗	1.34	27k	2022-02-28
XVS	Venus	Ethereum	8.4	8.4009	+0.01%	9.33	+11.07%	0.0722	✗	1.31	3.2M	2022-02-28
AXS	Axie Infinity	Ethereum	47.98	47.9866	+0.01%	54.42	+13.42%	0.0573	✗	1.35	6.5M	2022-02-28
MASK	Mask Network	Ethereum	4.21	4.2106	+0.01%	4.86	+15.44%	0.0753	✗	1.61	432k	2022-02-28
CHZ	Chiliz	Ethereum	0.1674	0.167429	+0.02%	0.1925	+14.99%	0.0556	✗	1.44	2.7M	2022-02-28
SNX	Synthetix	Ethereum	3.741	3.742	+0.03%	4.154	+11.04%	0.0763	✗	1.33	2.3M	2022-02-28
CRV	Curve DAO	Ethereum	2.185	2.1856	+0.03%	2.442	+11.76%	0.1030	✗	1.58	13.2M	2022-02-28
EWT	Energy Web Token	Ethereum	4.682	4.6835	+0.03%	5.63	+20.25%	0.0692	✓	0.85	65k	2022-02-28
BCHSV	Bitcoin Cash SV		81.71	81.7374	+0.03%	88.67	+8.52%	0.0394	✗	0.89	908k	2022-02-28
LRC	Loopring	Ethereum	0.7266	0.726867	+0.04%	0.823	+13.27%	0.0862	✗	1.55	270k	2022-02-28
SOL	Solana	Solana	85.7	85.7356	+0.04%	99.74	+16.38%	0.0246	✗	1.30	127.4M	2022-02-28
SHIB	Shiba Inu	Ethereum	0.00002342	0.000023431	+0.05%	0.00002579	+10.12%	0.0868	✗	1.35	3.8M	2022-02-28
KSM	Kusama	Hydration	117.66	117.7487	+0.08%	130.28	+10.73%	0.0618	✗	1.20	930k	2022-02-28
AVT	Aventus	Ethereum	2.14	2.1417	+0.08%	2.52	+17.76%	0.0271	✓	1.00	529k	2022-02-28
BICO	Biconomy	Ethereum	1.197	1.198	+0.08%	1.352	+12.95%	0.0651	✗	1.37	2.0M	2022-02-28
LTC	Litecoin	Litecoin	103.05	103.1469	+0.09%	113.82	+10.45%	0.0649	✗	1.21	28.8M	2022-02-28
TRAC	OriginTrail	Ethereum	0.4426	0.443158	+0.13%	0.5007	+13.13%	0.0751	✗	1.45	521k	2022-02-28
LCX	LCX	Ethereum	0.0773	0.077419	+0.15%	0.0857	+10.87%	0.1156	✗	1.60	633k	2022-02-28
DUSK	DUSK	Ethereum	0.3174	0.317961	+0.18%	0.3657	+15.22%	0.0975	✗	1.75	14.7M	2022-02-28
COTI	COTI	Ethereum	0.1985	0.198967	+0.24%	0.2321	+16.93%	0.0552	✗	1.54	2.6M	2022-02-28
IMX	Immutable	Ethereum	1.412	1.4164	+0.31%	1.564	+10.76%	0.0499	✗	1.10	3.4M	2022-02-28
SPELL	Spell	Ethereum	0.00404	0.004054	+0.34%	0.00439	+8.66%	0.1696	✗	1.84	11.3M	2022-02-28
GLMR	Moonbeam	Base	2.358	2.3674	+0.40%	2.664	+12.98%	0.0730	✗	1.41	584k	2022-02-28
JASMY	JasmyCoin	Ethereum	0.01609	0.016187	+0.60%	0.01796	+11.62%	0.1221	✗	1.67	12.7M	2022-02-28

Δ columns are percentage price moves; alpha err and the hit column are in beta-adjusted log-return space, which is what the model actually predicts. “pending” means the horizon has not matured yet. Rows are capped for readability — add &limit=2000 to widen.