2022-02-26 · +1d

gru_s4 · in-sample — the model trained on this date · 151 tokens predicted

These numbers are in-sample. The model was trained on this date, so predicted-vs-actual agreement here is not evidence of skill.

+1d +7d +30d asset cohort only

rank IC

+0.0170

151 of 151 tokens assessed

long-short decile

+2.56%

realised beta-adjusted alpha

direction hit

43.7%

in alpha space · 84.1% on raw price

BTC over horizon

-3.63%

the unhedgeable market factor

Predicted vs actual (151 rows, sorted by pred)

token	name	chain	anchor px	pred px ▴	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d	vol 30d	target
LUNA	Terra	Terra 2	78.15	76.9987	-1.47%	72.51	-7.22%	0.0088	✓	1.39	4.5M	2022-02-27
PEOPLE	ConstitutionDAO	Ethereum	0.0712	0.070209	-1.39%	0.0605	-15.03%	0.0779	✓	1.92	76.7M	2022-02-27
AGLD	Adventure Gold	Ethereum	1.139	1.1282	-0.95%	1.179	+3.51%	0.0903	✗	1.25	1.1M	2022-02-27
BRISE	Bitgert	Ethereum	6.98e-7	6.91e-7	-0.94%	5.53e-7	-20.74%	0.1861	✓	1.00	1.3M	2022-02-27
API3	Api3	Ethereum	6.528	6.4748	-0.82%	6.6	+1.10%	0.0329	✗	0.37	2.1M	2022-02-27
DIA	DIA	Ethereum	1.08	1.0715	-0.79%	0.99	-8.33%	0.0784	✓	0.02	286k	2022-02-27
CELL	Cellframe	Ethereum	1.6235	1.6119	-0.71%	1.541	-5.08%	0.0082	✗	1.44	251k	2022-02-27
ATOM	Cosmos Hub	Cosmos	29.89	29.7067	-0.61%	26.8	-10.34%	0.0610	✓	1.14	52.8M	2022-02-27
ASTR	Astar	Ethereum	0.141	0.140215	-0.56%	0.14	-0.71%	0.0337	✗	0.95	47k	2022-02-27
POWR	Powerledger	Ethereum	0.5505	0.547659	-0.52%	0.5151	-6.43%	0.0255	✓	0.97	684k	2022-02-27
ORBS	Orbs	Ethereum	0.0674	0.067065	-0.50%	0.0644	-4.45%	0.0002	✓	1.09	13k	2022-02-27
NMR	Numeraire	Ethereum	30.18	30.037	-0.47%	29.13	-3.48%	0.0079	✗	1.04	1.6M	2022-02-27
TRB	Tellor Tributes	Ethereum	21.2	21.1081	-0.43%	19.91	-6.08%	0.0019	✓	1.63	325k	2022-02-27
NAKA	Nakamoto Games	Polygon	0.4281	0.426339	-0.41%	0.4116	-3.85%	0.0429	✗	2.11	2.1M	2022-02-27
XMR	Monero	Monero	157.91	157.2626	-0.41%	150.62	-4.62%	0.0061	✓	1.00	960k	2022-02-27
PRO	Propy	Ethereum	1.86	1.8526	-0.40%	1.81	-2.69%	0.0371	✗	1.63	539k	2022-02-27
CVC	Civic	Ethereum	0.2767	0.275592	-0.40%	0.2684	-3.00%	0.0275	✗	1.46	413k	2022-02-27
CERE	Cere Network	Ethereum	0.0274	0.027291	-0.40%	0.0267	-2.55%	0.0330	✗	1.48	479k	2022-02-27
MTL	Metal DAO	Metal L2	1.524	1.518	-0.39%	1.43	-6.17%	0.0142	✓	1.23	1.8M	2022-02-27
YFI	yearn.finance	Ethereum	20,876.08	20,796.86	-0.38%	19,385.43	-7.14%	0.0330	✓	1.01	5.7M	2022-02-27
HIVE	Hive	native	0.9533	0.949685	-0.38%	0.8849	-7.18%	0.0227	✓	1.30	1.9M	2022-02-27
ACH	Alchemy Pay	Ethereum	0.048351	0.048177	-0.36%	0.046151	-4.55%	0.0014	✓	1.20	8.1M	2022-02-27
WBTC	Wrapped Bitcoin	Ethereum	39,589.70	39,448.15	-0.36%	37,686.70	-4.81%	0.0099	✓	0.97	49k	2022-02-27
XEM	NEM	native	0.101	0.100644	-0.35%	0.1	-0.99%	0.0330	✗	1.07	38k	2022-02-27
BAND	Band	Ethereum	3.6	3.5879	-0.34%	3.452	-4.11%	0.0115	✗	1.36	1.9M	2022-02-27
LPT	Livepeer	Ethereum	24.45	24.3717	-0.32%	23.96	-2.00%	0.0394	✗	1.53	1.7M	2022-02-27
CBK	Cobak	Ethereum	2.285	2.2781	-0.30%	2.379	+4.11%	0.0835	✗	1.09	20k	2022-02-27
RIF	Rootstock Infrastructure Framework	Ethereum	0.1506	0.150148	-0.30%	0.1447	-3.92%	0.0031	✗	1.08	420k	2022-02-27
AMP	Amp	Ethereum	0.02842	0.028335	-0.30%	0.02689	-5.38%	0.0230	✓	0.79	4.3M	2022-02-27
CWEB	Coinweb	Ethereum	0.02263	0.022562	-0.30%	0.022401	-1.01%	0.0320	✗	1.06	114k	2022-02-27
FTT	FTX	Ethereum	43.29	43.1633	-0.29%	41.51	-4.11%	0.0034	✗	1.15	20.8M	2022-02-27
ENJ	Enjin Coin	Ethereum	1.441	1.437	-0.28%	1.377	-4.44%	0.0144	✗	1.54	928k	2022-02-27
BNT	Bancor Network	Ethereum	2.3	2.2937	-0.28%	2.17	-5.65%	0.0176	✓	1.02	263k	2022-02-27
XTZ	Tezos	Tezos	3.4172	3.4082	-0.26%	3.1219	-8.64%	0.0368	✓	1.38	2.1M	2022-02-27
CTK	Shentu	Osmosis	1.148	1.145	-0.26%	1.081	-5.84%	0.0082	✓	1.33	2.8M	2022-02-27
ZEC	Zcash	Zcash	107.8	107.5166	-0.26%	102.66	-4.77%	0.0034	✓	1.16	7.4M	2022-02-27
QTUM	Qtum	Qtum	6.1323	6.1162	-0.26%	5.8667	-4.33%	0.0121	✗	1.45	184k	2022-02-27
SC	Siacoin	native	0.00906	0.009036	-0.26%	0.00867	-4.30%	0.0090	✗	1.36	563k	2022-02-27
DODO	DODO	Ethereum	0.438	0.436854	-0.26%	0.416	-5.02%	0.0022	✓	1.38	4.2M	2022-02-27
BAT	Basic Attention	Ethereum	0.69949	0.697687	-0.26%	0.66823	-4.47%	0.0126	✗	1.51	216k	2022-02-27
RLC	iExec RLC	Ethereum	1.67	1.6658	-0.25%	1.6	-4.19%	0.0099	✗	1.36	2.0M	2022-02-27
VSYS	V.SYSTEMS	native	0.01217	0.01214	-0.25%	0.01158	-4.85%	0.0176	✓	0.80	14k	2022-02-27
MANA	Decentraland	Ethereum	2.6813	2.6747	-0.24%	2.5576	-4.61%	0.0029	✗	1.29	3.1M	2022-02-27
LINK	Chainlink	Ethereum	14.72	14.6839	-0.24%	13.65	-7.27%	0.0266	✓	1.26	56.1M	2022-02-27
BEL	Bella Protocol	Ethereum	0.895	0.892862	-0.24%	0.812	-9.27%	0.0426	✓	1.41	2.1M	2022-02-27
XYO	XYO Network	Ethereum	0.01882	0.018776	-0.24%	0.01839	-2.28%	0.0199	✗	1.10	2.2M	2022-02-27
XPR	XPR Network	Ethereum	0.00997	0.009947	-0.23%	0.00965	-3.21%	0.0253	✗	1.50	2.7M	2022-02-27
UMA	UMA	Ethereum	4.934	4.9225	-0.23%	4.795	-2.82%	0.0108	✗	1.00	1.9M	2022-02-27
AVAX	Avalanche	Avalanche	81.79	81.6007	-0.23%	75.09	-8.19%	0.0259	✓	1.55	110.8M	2022-02-27
GTC	Gitcoin	Ethereum	6.27	6.2557	-0.23%	5.93	-5.42%	0.0017	✓	1.49	1.2M	2022-02-27
UOS	Ultra	Ethereum	1.2108	1.2081	-0.23%	1.1719	-3.21%	0.0237	✗	1.46	2.6M	2022-02-27
KNC	Kyber Network Crystal	Ethereum	1.8532	1.849	-0.23%	1.897	+2.36%	0.0516	✗	0.70	2.6M	2022-02-27
ALGO	Algorand	Algorand	0.8598	0.857874	-0.22%	0.7983	-7.15%	0.0262	✓	1.24	22.5M	2022-02-27
ARPA	ARPA	Ethereum	0.073	0.072837	-0.22%	0.0698	-4.38%	0.0101	✗	1.43	1.0M	2022-02-27
SUPER	SuperVerse	Ethereum	0.7	0.698451	-0.22%	0.67	-4.29%	0.0295	✗	1.92	995k	2022-02-27
KCS	KuCoin	native	19.708	19.6645	-0.22%	19.035	-3.41%	0.0076	✗	1.09	9.5M	2022-02-27
METRONOME	METRONOME		2.2359	2.231	-0.22%	2.23	-0.26%	0.0319	✗	0.88	26k	2022-02-27
ENS	Ethereum Name Service	Ethereum	14.09	14.0592	-0.22%	13.22	-6.17%	0.0049	✓	1.53	2.5M	2022-02-27
LEO	LEO Token	Ethereum	6.0612	6.048	-0.22%	5.951	-1.82%	0.0020	✓	0.38	433k	2022-02-27
XVG	Verge	native	0.00985	0.009829	-0.22%	0.00923	-6.29%	0.0143	✓	1.31	1.2M	2022-02-27
ORCA	Orca	Solana	2.56	2.5545	-0.22%	2.41	-5.86%	0.0212	✓	1.00	518k	2022-02-27
ETC	Ethereum Classic	native	28.91	28.8478	-0.22%	27.37	-5.33%	0.0106	✓	1.14	5.1M	2022-02-27
JUV	Juventus Fan Token	Solana	5.7	5.6878	-0.21%	5.65	-0.88%	0.0246	✗	0.85	425k	2022-02-27
MED	Medibloc	Osmosis	0.04014	0.040055	-0.21%	0.03926	-2.19%	0.0206	✗	1.10	30k	2022-02-27
FIDA	Bonfida	Solana	1.808	1.8042	-0.21%	1.681	-7.02%	0.0356	✓	0.95	76k	2022-02-27
OG	OG Fan Token	Solana	2.874	2.868	-0.21%	3.002	+4.45%	0.0813	✗	0.96	477k	2022-02-27
DKA	dKargo	Ethereum	0.08727	0.087088	-0.21%	0.08363	-4.17%	0.0015	✓	1.13	46k	2022-02-27
TWT	Trust Wallet	Binance Smart Chain	0.504	0.502957	-0.21%	0.4859	-3.59%	0.0156	✗	1.36	2.1M	2022-02-27
XLM	Stellar	Stellar	0.192899	0.192505	-0.20%	0.181008	-6.16%	0.0193	✓	1.14	19.8M	2022-02-27
FIL	Filecoin	Filecoin	19.06	19.0215	-0.20%	20.38	+6.93%	0.1171	✗	1.30	8.6M	2022-02-27
AUCTION	Bounce	Ethereum	12.91	12.8844	-0.20%	12	-7.05%	0.0320	✓	1.06	340k	2022-02-27
DNT	district0x	Ethereum	0.0685	0.068366	-0.20%	0.0675	-1.46%	0.0272	✗	1.08	163k	2022-02-27
COMP	Compound	Ethereum	113.35	113.1292	-0.19%	108.08	-4.65%	0.0020	✗	1.29	58k	2022-02-27
ICP	Internet Computer	Ethereum	17.73	17.6961	-0.19%	17.24	-2.76%	0.0176	✗	1.18	22.1M	2022-02-27
SKL	SKALE	Ethereum	0.1212	0.120969	-0.19%	0.115	-5.12%	0.0007	✓	1.35	2.9M	2022-02-27
PSG	Paris Saint-Germain Fan Token	Solana	14.7	14.6731	-0.18%	14.64	-0.41%	0.0248	✗	0.73	1.9M	2022-02-27
DOT	Polkadot	Polkadot	18.04	18.0075	-0.18%	17.5	-2.99%	0.0215	✗	1.36	26.4M	2022-02-27
MOVR	Moonriver	Base	64.8155	64.6995	-0.18%	61.5448	-5.05%	0.0068	✗	1.54	223k	2022-02-27
CITY	Manchester City Fan Token	Solana	9.33	9.3134	-0.18%	9.35	+0.21%	0.0296	✗	0.69	853k	2022-02-27
OGN	Origin Token	Ethereum	0.29	0.28949	-0.18%	0.28	-3.45%	0.0194	✗	1.43	2.0M	2022-02-27
IOTA	IOTA	IOTA	0.7459	0.744633	-0.17%	0.7097	-4.85%	0.0059	✓	1.14	9.4M	2022-02-27
STX	Stacks	native	1.19	1.188	-0.17%	1.12	-5.88%	0.0108	✓	1.30	646k	2022-02-27
ASM	Assemble AI	Ethereum	0.04782	0.04774	-0.17%	0.04436	-7.24%	0.0257	✓	1.29	703k	2022-02-27
ZEN	Horizen	Base	33.26	33.2046	-0.17%	32.64	-1.86%	0.0393	✗	1.53	281k	2022-02-27
ASR	AS Roma Fan Token	Solana	2.576	2.5717	-0.17%	2.647	+2.76%	0.0605	✗	0.86	213k	2022-02-27
STORJ	Storj	Ethereum	0.99036	0.988715	-0.17%	0.9359	-5.50%	0.0013	✓	1.45	165k	2022-02-27
BTTC	BTTC		0.00000191	0.000001907	-0.16%	0.00000184	-3.66%	0.0101	✓	0.69	14.4M	2022-02-27
ETH	Ethereum	Ethereum	2,780.71	2,776.18	-0.16%	2,618.01	-5.85%	0.0187	✓	1.08	540.3M	2022-02-27
ATM	Atletico Madrid Fan Token	Solana	4.68	4.6724	-0.16%	4.64	-0.85%	0.0219	✗	0.78	459k	2022-02-27
ANKR	Ankr Network	Ethereum	0.06611	0.066003	-0.16%	0.06333	-4.21%	0.0067	✗	1.30	69k	2022-02-27
DEXE	DeXe	Ethereum	6.27	6.2601	-0.16%	6.06	-3.35%	0.0153	✓	0.47	1.1M	2022-02-27
BAR	FC Barcelona Fan Token	Solana	5.38	5.3715	-0.16%	6.32	+17.47%	0.1951	✗	0.88	398k	2022-02-27
XEC	eCash	native	0.00007538	0.000075263	-0.16%	0.00007235	-4.02%	0.0048	✗	1.20	4.5M	2022-02-27
CRV	Curve DAO	Ethereum	2.394	2.3903	-0.15%	2.185	-8.73%	0.0322	✓	1.56	13.2M	2022-02-27
LSK	Lisk	Ethereum	1.5733	1.5709	-0.15%	1.5293	-2.79%	0.0116	✗	1.04	69k	2022-02-27
XYM	Symbol	native	0.1441	0.14388	-0.15%	0.141	-2.15%	0.0111	✗	0.85	301k	2022-02-27
SUN	Sun Token	Tron	0.01194	0.011922	-0.15%	0.011286	-5.48%	0.0134	✓	1.12	33k	2022-02-27
OMG	OMG Network	Ethereum	4.0234	4.0175	-0.15%	3.8286	-4.84%	0.0027	✓	1.23	284k	2022-02-27
MINA	Mina Protocol	native	2.05	2.047	-0.15%	1.97	-3.90%	0.0078	✗	1.25	343k	2022-02-27
DYDX	dYdX	Cosmos	5.391	5.3836	-0.14%	5.036	-6.59%	0.0289	✓	1.02	202k	2022-02-27
DOGE	Dogecoin	Dogecoin	0.127595	0.127421	-0.14%	0.123115	-3.51%	0.0032	✗	1.02	3.7M	2022-02-27
ZRX	0x Protocol	Ethereum	0.544581	0.543849	-0.13%	0.521555	-4.23%	0.0035	✗	1.23	2.9M	2022-02-27
AVT	Aventus	Ethereum	2.35	2.3469	-0.13%	2.14	-8.94%	0.0553	✓	1.00	584k	2022-02-27
XVS	Venus	Ethereum	8.98	8.9684	-0.13%	8.4	-6.46%	0.0173	✓	1.30	3.2M	2022-02-27
ACM	AC Milan Fan Token	Solana	4.058	4.0528	-0.13%	4.06	+0.05%	0.0336	✗	0.86	395k	2022-02-27
DASH	Dash	Dash	93.68	93.5599	-0.13%	88.3	-5.74%	0.0147	✓	1.17	1.5M	2022-02-27
OXT	Orchid Protocol	Ethereum	0.226	0.225713	-0.13%	0.2326	+2.92%	0.0683	✗	1.03	1.9M	2022-02-27
SANTOS	Santos FC Fan Token	Binance Smart Chain	2.305	2.3021	-0.13%	3.224	+39.87%	0.3830	✗	1.25	687k	2022-02-27
PHA	PHALA	Ethereum	0.232	0.231709	-0.13%	0.217	-6.47%	0.0331	✓	0.88	57k	2022-02-27
1INCH	1INCH	Ethereum	1.437	1.4352	-0.12%	1.384	-3.69%	0.0091	✗	1.23	940k	2022-02-27
CTSI	Cartesi	Ethereum	0.3655	0.365047	-0.12%	0.3419	-6.46%	0.0096	✓	1.51	1.3M	2022-02-27
GRT	The Graph	Ethereum	0.3486	0.348175	-0.12%	0.3363	-3.53%	0.0198	✗	1.47	8.3M	2022-02-27
QNT	Quant	Ethereum	110.79	110.6614	-0.12%	105.8	-4.50%	0.0060	✓	1.05	6.3M	2022-02-27
GITCOIN	GITCOIN		6.245	6.2379	-0.11%	5.854	-6.26%	0.0097	✓	1.45	28k	2022-02-27
ADA	Cardano	Cardano	0.8873	0.886294	-0.11%	0.8569	-3.43%	0.0097	✗	1.17	96.0M	2022-02-27
NCT	PolySwarm	Ethereum	0.03453	0.034492	-0.11%	0.03182	-7.85%	0.0483	✓	0.87	1.4M	2022-02-27
AXS	Axie Infinity	Ethereum	50.44	50.3846	-0.11%	47.98	-4.88%	0.0011	✗	1.35	6.8M	2022-02-27
SUSHI	Sushi	Ethereum	3.25	3.2466	-0.10%	3.12	-4.00%	0.0090	✗	1.32	7.0M	2022-02-27
SNX	Synthetix	Ethereum	3.874	3.8701	-0.10%	3.741	-3.43%	0.0157	✗	1.34	2.3M	2022-02-27
BICO	Biconomy	Ethereum	1.276	1.2747	-0.10%	1.197	-6.19%	0.0121	✓	1.37	1.9M	2022-02-27
BCH	Bitcoin Cash	Bitcoin Cash	315.57	315.2552	-0.10%	304.19	-3.61%	0.0020	✗	1.02	7.2M	2022-02-27
TRX	TRON	Tron	0.059459	0.059401	-0.10%	0.058112	-2.27%	0.0090	✗	0.84	270k	2022-02-27
RAD	Radworks	Ethereum	4.47	4.4658	-0.09%	4.3	-3.80%	0.0005	✓	1.01	651k	2022-02-27
MASK	Mask Network	Ethereum	4.46	4.4559	-0.09%	4.21	-5.61%	0.0037	✗	1.63	432k	2022-02-27
BTC	Bitcoin	Bitcoin	39,137.80	39,102.25	-0.09%	37,717.08	-3.63%	0.0009	✗	1.00	630.5M	2022-02-27
TKO	Tokocrypto	Binance Smart Chain	0.679	0.678407	-0.09%	0.648	-4.57%	0.0018	✓	1.19	2.2M	2022-02-27
NANO	nanopay	Base	1.8651	1.8635	-0.09%	1.7425	-6.57%	0.0204	✓	1.26	185k	2022-02-27
LAZIO	Lazio Fan Token	Binance Smart Chain	2.7102	2.7079	-0.09%	2.8883	+6.57%	0.1016	✗	1.00	2.2M	2022-02-27
EWT	Energy Web Token	Ethereum	5.009	5.0054	-0.07%	4.682	-6.53%	0.0357	✓	0.84	65k	2022-02-27
POKT	Pocket Network	Ethereum	0.794	0.793442	-0.07%	0.7935	-0.06%	0.0213	✗	0.57	1.4M	2022-02-27
BFC	Bifrost	Ethereum	0.15626	0.156176	-0.05%	0.15123	-3.22%	0.0180	✗	1.36	28k	2022-02-27
SHIB	Shiba Inu	Ethereum	0.00002435	0.000024337	-0.05%	0.00002342	-3.82%	0.0116	✗	1.35	3.8M	2022-02-27
CHZ	Chiliz	Ethereum	0.1751	0.175014	-0.05%	0.1674	-4.40%	0.0090	✗	1.45	2.7M	2022-02-27
PORTO	FC Porto	Binance Smart Chain	2.7384	2.7372	-0.05%	2.859	+4.40%	0.0791	✗	0.96	2.9M	2022-02-27
AAVE	Aave	Ethereum	136.67	136.6165	-0.04%	131.61	-3.70%	0.0174	✗	1.48	6.4M	2022-02-27
LRC	Loopring	Ethereum	0.7651	0.764863	-0.03%	0.7266	-5.03%	0.0061	✗	1.55	295k	2022-02-27
KSM	Kusama	Hydration	124.78	124.7619	-0.01%	117.66	-5.71%	0.0140	✓	1.21	930k	2022-02-27
SOL	Solana	Solana	90.32	90.308	-0.01%	85.7	-5.12%	0.0044	✓	1.30	131.2M	2022-02-27
GT	Gate	Ethereum	6.4106	6.4104	-0.00%	6.3355	-1.17%	0.0173	✗	0.79	2.9M	2022-02-27
BCHSV	Bitcoin Cash SV		84.76	84.7647	+0.01%	81.71	-3.60%	0.0038	✗	0.89	915k	2022-02-27
DUSK	DUSK	Ethereum	0.3507	0.350723	+0.01%	0.3174	-9.50%	0.0352	✗	1.75	15.2M	2022-02-27
LCX	LCX	Ethereum	0.0854	0.085407	+0.01%	0.0773	-9.48%	0.0411	✗	1.59	647k	2022-02-27
LTC	Litecoin	Litecoin	108.29	108.3141	+0.02%	103.05	-4.84%	0.0052	✗	1.21	29.3M	2022-02-27
UNI	Uniswap	Ethereum	9.06	9.0622	+0.02%	9.77	+7.84%	0.1253	✓	1.35	10.8M	2022-02-27
TRAC	OriginTrail	Ethereum	0.4599	0.460137	+0.05%	0.4426	-3.76%	0.0151	✓	1.46	559k	2022-02-27
COTI	COTI	Ethereum	0.2129	0.213139	+0.11%	0.1985	-6.76%	0.0138	✗	1.55	3.0M	2022-02-27
IMX	Immutable	Ethereum	1.5	1.5023	+0.16%	1.412	-5.87%	0.0215	✗	1.10	3.4M	2022-02-27
GODS	Gods Unchained	Ethereum	1.24	1.2423	+0.18%	1.31	+5.65%	0.1004	✓	1.28	885k	2022-02-27
SPELL	Spell	Ethereum	0.00431	0.004318	+0.19%	0.00404	-6.26%	0.0017	✓	1.85	12.0M	2022-02-27
GLMR	Moonbeam	Base	2.581	2.5885	+0.29%	2.358	-8.64%	0.0413	✗	1.40	579k	2022-02-27
JASMY	JasmyCoin	Ethereum	0.01784	0.017922	+0.46%	0.01609	-9.81%	0.0465	✗	1.66	12.7M	2022-02-27

Δ columns are percentage price moves; alpha err and the hit column are in beta-adjusted log-return space, which is what the model actually predicts. “pending” means the horizon has not matured yet. Rows are capped for readability — add &limit=2000 to widen.