2022-02-24 · +30d

gru_s4 · in-sample — the model trained on this date · 151 tokens predicted

These numbers are in-sample. The model was trained on this date, so predicted-vs-actual agreement here is not evidence of skill.

+1d +7d +30d asset cohort only

rank IC

+0.2684

151 of 151 tokens assessed

long-short decile

+13.94%

realised beta-adjusted alpha

direction hit

39.7%

in alpha space · 12.6% on raw price

BTC over horizon

+16.15%

the unhedgeable market factor

Predicted vs actual (151 rows, sorted by pred)

token	name	chain	anchor px	pred px ▴	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d	vol 30d	target
API3	Api3	Ethereum	7.001	6.0768	-13.20%	6.055	-13.51%	0.0592	✓	0.37	2.0M	2022-03-26
BRISE	Bitgert	Ethereum	7.02e-7	6.32e-7	-9.95%	0.000001176	+67.48%	0.4708	✗	1.00	1.4M	2022-03-26
CELL	Cellframe	Ethereum	1.4257	1.3063	-8.37%	1.3654	-4.23%	0.1655	✓	1.40	238k	2022-03-26
FIDA	Bonfida	Solana	1.717	1.5803	-7.96%	1.883	+9.67%	0.0255	✓	1.00	84k	2022-03-26
PRO	Propy	Ethereum	1.69	1.5665	-7.31%	1.62	-4.14%	0.2018	✓	1.57	539k	2022-03-26
NAKA	Nakamoto Games	Polygon	0.3935	0.365901	-7.01%	0.4455	+13.21%	0.1101	✓	2.05	2.1M	2022-03-26
PEOPLE	ConstitutionDAO	Ethereum	0.0532	0.049607	-6.75%	0.0794	+49.25%	0.1987	✗	1.81	67.8M	2022-03-26
AGLD	Adventure Gold	Ethereum	1.187	1.1078	-6.67%	1.694	+42.71%	0.2385	✗	1.24	1.0M	2022-03-26
YFI	yearn.finance	Ethereum	19,425.17	18,213.40	-6.24%	21,160.33	+8.93%	0.0013	✓	0.99	5.7M	2022-03-26
ORCA	Orca	Solana	2.68	2.5138	-6.20%	2.29	-14.55%	0.2429	✓	1.00	608k	2022-03-26
MOVR	Moonriver	Base	63.0112	59.1301	-6.16%	61.5671	-2.29%	0.1813	✓	1.48	243k	2022-03-26
SUN	Sun Token	Tron	0.01147	0.010782	-5.99%	0.014424	+25.75%	0.1247	✗	1.11	37k	2022-03-26
DIA	DIA	Ethereum	1.02	0.962046	-5.68%	1	-1.96%	0.0349	✓	0.03	286k	2022-03-26
WBTC	Wrapped Bitcoin	Ethereum	38,311.50	36,144.67	-5.66%	44,445.40	+16.01%	0.0633	✗	0.96	39k	2022-03-26
NMR	Numeraire	Ethereum	30.76	29.0273	-5.63%	30.63	-0.42%	0.1020	✓	1.04	1.6M	2022-03-26
LUNA	Terra	Terra 2	65.24	61.6462	-5.51%	91.46	+40.19%	0.1914	✗	1.36	4.5M	2022-03-26
ATOM	Cosmos Hub	Cosmos	24.86	23.4969	-5.48%	28.8	+15.85%	0.0403	✓	1.09	52.8M	2022-03-26
ASTR	Astar	Ethereum	0.126	0.11917	-5.42%	0.113	-10.32%	0.1901	✓	0.91	53k	2022-03-26
POKT	Pocket Network	Ethereum	0.8008	0.758073	-5.34%	0.8796	+9.84%	0.0710	✗	0.52	1.5M	2022-03-26
STX	Stacks	native	1.12	1.0605	-5.32%	1.36	+21.43%	0.0545	✓	1.30	725k	2022-03-26
LEO	LEO Token	Ethereum	5.718	5.4151	-5.30%	5.7949	+1.34%	0.0069	✓	0.41	433k	2022-03-26
CERE	Cere Network	Ethereum	0.0281	0.026612	-5.30%	0.03025	+7.65%	0.0933	✓	1.48	513k	2022-03-26
DUSK	DUSK	Ethereum	0.3302	0.313068	-5.19%	0.3714	+12.48%	0.0834	✓	1.70	16.0M	2022-03-26
ACH	Alchemy Pay	Ethereum	0.045853	0.043526	-5.08%	0.042043	-8.31%	0.2178	✓	1.22	8.6M	2022-03-26
POWR	Powerledger	Ethereum	0.4805	0.457058	-4.88%	0.5554	+15.59%	0.0588	✗	0.91	643k	2022-03-26
XMR	Monero	Monero	147	139.8896	-4.84%	207.22	+40.97%	0.2443	✗	0.99	966k	2022-03-26
NCT	PolySwarm	Ethereum	0.03323	0.031659	-4.73%	0.04136	+24.47%	0.1427	✗	0.83	1.6M	2022-03-26
BAND	Band	Ethereum	3.558	3.392	-4.66%	4.192	+17.82%	0.0135	✓	1.32	1.9M	2022-03-26
KNC	Kyber Network Crystal	Ethereum	1.8131	1.7306	-4.55%	3.144	+73.40%	0.4960	✗	0.67	2.7M	2022-03-26
ICP	Internet Computer	Ethereum	16.6	15.8702	-4.40%	19.44	+17.11%	0.0305	✓	1.15	22.7M	2022-03-26
ORBS	Orbs	Ethereum	0.0609	0.058225	-4.39%	0.08093	+32.89%	0.1716	✗	1.05	14k	2022-03-26
AVT	Aventus	Ethereum	2.19	2.0977	-4.22%	2.46	+12.33%	0.0097	✓	1.00	639k	2022-03-26
FTT	FTX	Ethereum	41.3	39.5766	-4.17%	49.92	+20.87%	0.0612	✗	1.14	26.3M	2022-03-26
PSG	Paris Saint-Germain Fan Token	Solana	13.97	13.3969	-4.10%	13.43	-3.87%	0.1030	✓	0.70	1.9M	2022-03-26
ARPA	ARPA	Ethereum	0.0685	0.065705	-4.08%	0.0815	+18.98%	0.0080	✓	1.39	1.1M	2022-03-26
TRB	Tellor Tributes	Ethereum	19.48	18.7035	-3.99%	22.24	+14.17%	0.0630	✓	1.58	334k	2022-03-26
METRONOME	METRONOME		2.1177	2.0344	-3.93%	2.658	+25.51%	0.1362	✗	0.88	27k	2022-03-26
GTC	Gitcoin	Ethereum	5.89	5.6589	-3.92%	7.17	+21.73%	0.0345	✓	1.35	1.3M	2022-03-26
SKL	SKALE	Ethereum	0.1205	0.115873	-3.84%	0.1714	+42.24%	0.1962	✗	1.30	3.1M	2022-03-26
XPR	XPR Network	Ethereum	0.00977	0.009422	-3.56%	0.01356	+38.79%	0.1432	✗	1.48	2.3M	2022-03-26
DODO	DODO	Ethereum	0.423	0.408237	-3.49%	0.445	+5.20%	0.1198	✓	1.38	4.7M	2022-03-26
CRV	Curve DAO	Ethereum	2.241	2.1633	-3.47%	2.41	+7.54%	0.1180	✓	1.51	13.2M	2022-03-26
SUPER	SuperVerse	Ethereum	0.64	0.617962	-3.44%	0.7	+9.37%	0.1595	✓	1.90	1.0M	2022-03-26
CVC	Civic	Ethereum	0.2371	0.228973	-3.43%	0.3258	+37.41%	0.1467	✗	1.38	469k	2022-03-26
BTTC	BTTC		0.00000181	0.000001748	-3.42%	0.00000194	+7.18%	0.0040	✓	0.67	14.4M	2022-03-26
FIL	Filecoin	Filecoin	18.42	17.8086	-3.32%	19.43	+5.48%	0.1039	✓	1.28	9.4M	2022-03-26
LPT	Livepeer	Ethereum	22.41	21.6813	-3.25%	27.43	+22.40%	0.0153	✓	1.47	1.8M	2022-03-26
DKA	dKargo	Ethereum	0.08206	0.079437	-3.20%	0.10351	+26.14%	0.0991	✗	1.11	47k	2022-03-26
AXS	Axie Infinity	Ethereum	48.82	47.2796	-3.16%	66.96	+37.16%	0.1476	✗	1.34	7.5M	2022-03-26
OGN	Origin Token	Ethereum	0.274	0.265383	-3.14%	0.609	+122.26%	0.6247	✗	1.38	2.2M	2022-03-26
UMA	UMA	Ethereum	4.785	4.6388	-3.06%	7.708	+61.09%	0.3636	✗	0.96	1.9M	2022-03-26
PORTO	FC Porto	Binance Smart Chain	2.6254	2.5459	-3.03%	4.1754	+59.04%	0.3572	✗	0.92	2.9M	2022-03-26
QTUM	Qtum	Qtum	5.8411	5.6697	-2.93%	8.2397	+41.07%	0.1585	✗	1.44	172k	2022-03-26
VSYS	V.SYSTEMS	native	0.01188	0.011534	-2.91%	0.01334	+12.29%	0.0314	✗	0.76	15k	2022-03-26
LINK	Chainlink	Ethereum	13.27	12.8854	-2.90%	15.84	+19.37%	0.0239	✓	1.22	60.6M	2022-03-26
DYDX	dYdX	Cosmos	5.016	4.8715	-2.88%	5.416	+7.97%	0.0375	✓	0.96	241k	2022-03-26
IMX	Immutable	Ethereum	1.504	1.4608	-2.87%	2.2	+46.28%	0.2458	✗	1.09	3.5M	2022-03-26
RLC	iExec RLC	Ethereum	1.56	1.5158	-2.83%	2.16	+38.46%	0.1546	✗	1.33	2.0M	2022-03-26
ALGO	Algorand	Algorand	0.7779	0.755989	-2.82%	0.9121	+17.25%	0.0059	✓	1.21	22.9M	2022-03-26
1INCH	1INCH	Ethereum	1.344	1.3064	-2.80%	1.628	+21.13%	0.0440	✗	1.18	1.1M	2022-03-26
ENJ	Enjin Coin	Ethereum	1.36	1.3224	-2.76%	1.659	+21.99%	0.0017	✓	1.50	970k	2022-03-26
ETC	Ethereum Classic	native	26.53	25.7985	-2.76%	47.21	+77.95%	0.4391	✗	1.10	5.1M	2022-03-26
CITY	Manchester City Fan Token	Solana	8.97	8.7241	-2.74%	14.26	+58.97%	0.3909	✗	0.67	853k	2022-03-26
BAT	Basic Attention	Ethereum	0.66022	0.642209	-2.73%	0.85828	+30.00%	0.0662	✗	1.50	246k	2022-03-26
OG	OG Fan Token	Solana	2.747	2.6722	-2.72%	4.072	+48.23%	0.2823	✗	0.93	477k	2022-03-26
MASK	Mask Network	Ethereum	4.24	4.1266	-2.67%	5.28	+24.53%	0.0218	✓	1.50	456k	2022-03-26
MINA	Mina Protocol	native	1.97	1.9183	-2.62%	2.55	+29.44%	0.1021	✗	1.22	343k	2022-03-26
UOS	Ultra	Ethereum	1.1579	1.1277	-2.61%	1.1526	-0.46%	0.1947	✓	1.45	2.6M	2022-03-26
AMP	Amp	Ethereum	0.02616	0.025485	-2.58%	0.02636	+0.76%	0.0830	✓	0.78	4.4M	2022-03-26
MED	Medibloc	Osmosis	0.03686	0.035914	-2.57%	0.04666	+26.59%	0.1005	✗	1.08	31k	2022-03-26
MTL	Metal DAO	Metal L2	1.338	1.3037	-2.56%	1.897	+41.78%	0.1981	✗	1.18	1.8M	2022-03-26
ASR	AS Roma Fan Token	Solana	2.481	2.4175	-2.56%	3.756	+51.39%	0.3172	✗	0.82	205k	2022-03-26
XTZ	Tezos	Tezos	3.0389	2.9616	-2.54%	3.6619	+20.50%	0.0131	✓	1.33	2.1M	2022-03-26
SNX	Synthetix	Ethereum	3.941	3.8412	-2.53%	5.117	+29.84%	0.0904	✗	1.31	2.4M	2022-03-26
SHIB	Shiba Inu	Ethereum	0.00002389	0.000023286	-2.53%	0.00002445	+2.34%	0.1533	✓	1.35	3.7M	2022-03-26
XYM	Symbol	native	0.1399	0.136363	-2.53%	0.1501	+7.29%	0.0259	✓	0.81	345k	2022-03-26
SPELL	Spell	Ethereum	0.00413	0.004026	-2.52%	0.00426	+3.15%	0.2187	✓	1.84	12.6M	2022-03-26
XYO	XYO Network	Ethereum	0.01718	0.016749	-2.51%	0.02062	+20.02%	0.0419	✗	1.11	2.2M	2022-03-26
GODS	Gods Unchained	Ethereum	1.13	1.1018	-2.50%	1.42	+25.66%	0.0650	✗	1.26	934k	2022-03-26
SUSHI	Sushi	Ethereum	3.14	3.0621	-2.48%	3.64	+15.92%	0.0281	✓	1.34	7.1M	2022-03-26
XEC	eCash	native	0.00007114	0.000069379	-2.48%	0.0000868	+22.01%	0.0485	✗	1.17	4.4M	2022-03-26
ENS	Ethereum Name Service	Ethereum	13.72	13.3805	-2.47%	17.38	+26.68%	0.0297	✗	1.55	2.7M	2022-03-26
BNT	Bancor Network	Ethereum	2.19	2.136	-2.47%	2.6	+18.72%	0.0460	✗	1.01	275k	2022-03-26
ACM	AC Milan Fan Token	Solana	3.945	3.8477	-2.47%	5.974	+51.43%	0.3163	✗	0.83	414k	2022-03-26
RIF	Rootstock Infrastructure Framework	Ethereum	0.1304	0.127289	-2.39%	0.1602	+22.85%	0.0751	✗	1.03	446k	2022-03-26
AVAX	Avalanche	Avalanche	76.41	74.6316	-2.33%	85.96	+12.50%	0.0835	✓	1.50	106.7M	2022-03-26
HIVE	Hive	native	0.8143	0.795354	-2.33%	1.0536	+29.39%	0.0917	✗	1.27	1.8M	2022-03-26
IOTA	IOTA	IOTA	0.6953	0.679145	-2.32%	0.8312	+19.55%	0.0391	✗	1.09	9.7M	2022-03-26
XLM	Stellar	Stellar	0.182403	0.178326	-2.24%	0.215838	+18.33%	0.0263	✗	1.10	21.4M	2022-03-26
ZRX	0x Protocol	Ethereum	0.509766	0.49841	-2.23%	0.625849	+22.77%	0.0503	✗	1.18	3.2M	2022-03-26
ADA	Cardano	Cardano	0.8533	0.834483	-2.21%	1.153	+35.12%	0.1508	✗	1.15	97.3M	2022-03-26
DOGE	Dogecoin	Dogecoin	0.124116	0.121379	-2.20%	0.136089	+9.65%	0.0349	✓	1.00	3.7M	2022-03-26
MANA	Decentraland	Ethereum	2.5825	2.5275	-2.13%	2.6174	+1.35%	0.1590	✓	1.30	3.3M	2022-03-26
CTSI	Cartesi	Ethereum	0.3452	0.337942	-2.10%	0.3882	+12.46%	0.0791	✓	1.45	1.3M	2022-03-26
BAR	FC Barcelona Fan Token	Solana	5.03	4.9247	-2.09%	8.41	+67.20%	0.4081	✗	0.85	398k	2022-03-26
DASH	Dash	Dash	87.88	86.1492	-1.97%	128.04	+45.70%	0.2293	✗	1.12	1.5M	2022-03-26
CTK	Shentu	Osmosis	1.104	1.0823	-1.97%	1.345	+21.83%	0.0236	✗	1.29	2.8M	2022-03-26
LSK	Lisk	Ethereum	1.5371	1.5074	-1.94%	2.3608	+53.58%	0.2990	✗	1.00	72k	2022-03-26
NANO	nanopay	Base	1.7738	1.7404	-1.88%	2.5027	+41.10%	0.1814	✗	1.21	206k	2022-03-26
LRC	Loopring	Ethereum	0.74	0.726192	-1.87%	1.0653	+43.96%	0.1544	✗	1.53	317k	2022-03-26
GRT	The Graph	Ethereum	0.3618	0.355161	-1.83%	0.4109	+13.57%	0.0748	✓	1.47	8.4M	2022-03-26
BTC	Bitcoin	Bitcoin	38,347.30	37,655.06	-1.81%	44,539.42	+16.15%	0.0182	✗	1.00	632.3M	2022-03-26
RAD	Radworks	Ethereum	4.44	4.3614	-1.77%	5.18	+16.67%	0.0215	✗	1.01	696k	2022-03-26
SANTOS	Santos FC Fan Token	Binance Smart Chain	2.188	2.15	-1.73%	6.444	+194.52%	0.9128	✗	1.24	772k	2022-03-26
PHA	PHALA	Ethereum	0.219	0.215207	-1.73%	0.26	+18.72%	0.0597	✗	0.86	59k	2022-03-26
ZEC	Zcash	Zcash	102.72	100.9932	-1.68%	204.96	+99.53%	0.5409	✗	1.11	7.8M	2022-03-26
DNT	district0x	Ethereum	0.0646	0.063534	-1.65%	0.079	+22.29%	0.0619	✗	1.04	176k	2022-03-26
ZEN	Horizen	Base	34.22	33.691	-1.55%	46.92	+37.11%	0.1070	✗	1.50	309k	2022-03-26
JUV	Juventus Fan Token	Solana	5.42	5.3396	-1.48%	6.44	+18.82%	0.0630	✗	0.83	430k	2022-03-26
KCS	KuCoin	native	18.173	17.9045	-1.48%	18.766	+3.26%	0.1105	✓	1.05	9.6M	2022-03-26
COMP	Compound	Ethereum	108.77	107.2056	-1.44%	121.77	+11.95%	0.0666	✓	1.30	64k	2022-03-26
DEXE	DeXe	Ethereum	6.1	6.0123	-1.44%	6.99	+14.59%	0.0915	✗	0.40	1.3M	2022-03-26
GT	Gate	Ethereum	6.235	6.1456	-1.43%	6.4911	+4.11%	0.0633	✓	0.79	3.0M	2022-03-26
OMG	OMG Network	Ethereum	3.7351	3.6857	-1.32%	5.2377	+40.23%	0.1730	✗	1.19	291k	2022-03-26
TRX	TRON	Tron	0.061098	0.060299	-1.31%	0.066368	+8.63%	0.0299	✓	0.84	286k	2022-03-26
LAZIO	Lazio Fan Token	Binance Smart Chain	2.6203	2.5873	-1.26%	4.2793	+63.31%	0.3581	✗	0.97	2.3M	2022-03-26
BFC	Bifrost	Ethereum	0.15132	0.14949	-1.21%	0.16187	+6.97%	0.1249	✓	1.37	29k	2022-03-26
ETH	Ethereum	Ethereum	2,597.42	2,566.32	-1.20%	3,146.22	+21.13%	0.0439	✗	1.07	561.7M	2022-03-26
CWEB	Coinweb	Ethereum	0.021665	0.021409	-1.18%	0.037356	+72.43%	0.4024	✗	1.03	114k	2022-03-26
QNT	Quant	Ethereum	108.73	107.4702	-1.16%	141.25	+29.91%	0.1204	✗	1.02	6.6M	2022-03-26
AUCTION	Bounce	Ethereum	11.99	11.8553	-1.12%	15.9	+32.61%	0.1400	✗	1.03	369k	2022-03-26
XEM	NEM	native	0.093	0.091973	-1.10%	0.1088	+16.99%	0.0130	✗	1.04	38k	2022-03-26
SC	Siacoin	native	0.00834	0.008256	-1.01%	0.01082	+29.74%	0.0789	✗	1.28	546k	2022-03-26
CHZ	Chiliz	Ethereum	0.1641	0.162559	-0.94%	0.242	+47.47%	0.1885	✗	1.40	2.9M	2022-03-26
LCX	LCX	Ethereum	0.079	0.078286	-0.90%	0.132	+67.09%	0.2914	✗	1.54	668k	2022-03-26
TWT	Trust Wallet	Binance Smart Chain	0.458	0.453951	-0.88%	1.2208	+166.55%	0.7904	✗	1.33	2.2M	2022-03-26
OXT	Orchid Protocol	Ethereum	0.2141	0.212222	-0.88%	0.2689	+25.60%	0.0861	✗	1.01	1.9M	2022-03-26
TRAC	OriginTrail	Ethereum	0.4313	0.42756	-0.87%	0.6791	+57.45%	0.2432	✗	1.47	572k	2022-03-26
DOT	Polkadot	Polkadot	16.18	16.0444	-0.84%	20.93	+29.36%	0.0683	✗	1.32	27.9M	2022-03-26
KSM	Kusama	Hydration	117.93	116.992	-0.80%	164.65	+39.62%	0.1612	✗	1.21	930k	2022-03-26
COTI	COTI	Ethereum	0.1956	0.19408	-0.78%	0.2487	+27.15%	0.0225	✗	1.51	3.3M	2022-03-26
ANKR	Ankr Network	Ethereum	0.06073	0.060298	-0.71%	0.08581	+41.30%	0.1705	✗	1.22	77k	2022-03-26
CBK	Cobak	Ethereum	2.003	1.9894	-0.68%	2.469	+23.27%	0.0607	✗	1.04	20k	2022-03-26
ASM	Assemble AI	Ethereum	0.0436	0.043311	-0.66%	0.05491	+25.94%	0.0489	✗	1.26	768k	2022-03-26
XVG	Verge	native	0.00894	0.008883	-0.64%	0.01105	+23.60%	0.0261	✗	1.28	1.2M	2022-03-26
GITCOIN	GITCOIN		5.793	5.7601	-0.57%	7.203	+24.34%	0.0273	✗	1.31	29k	2022-03-26
BEL	Bella Protocol	Ethereum	0.827	0.822706	-0.52%	0.998	+20.68%	0.0114	✓	1.37	2.1M	2022-03-26
GLMR	Moonbeam	Base	2.18	2.1702	-0.45%	2.775	+27.29%	0.0423	✗	1.36	579k	2022-03-26
BCHSV	Bitcoin Cash SV		81.89	81.5493	-0.42%	90.22	+10.17%	0.0305	✓	0.88	946k	2022-03-26
BICO	Biconomy	Ethereum	1.208	1.2044	-0.30%	1.516	+25.50%	0.0277	✗	1.35	1.8M	2022-03-26
ATM	Atletico Madrid Fan Token	Solana	4.42	4.4101	-0.22%	6.98	+57.92%	0.3441	✗	0.77	459k	2022-03-26
STORJ	Storj	Ethereum	0.89559	0.894756	-0.09%	1.2512	+39.70%	0.1258	✗	1.40	165k	2022-03-26
TKO	Tokocrypto	Binance Smart Chain	0.64	0.639423	-0.09%	0.729	+13.91%	0.0419	✓	1.16	2.2M	2022-03-26
AAVE	Aave	Ethereum	125.3	125.3196	+0.02%	163.4	+30.41%	0.0515	✓	1.43	6.5M	2022-03-26
SOL	Solana	Solana	89.41	89.4302	+0.02%	101.79	+13.85%	0.0626	✗	1.28	132.7M	2022-03-26
EWT	Energy Web Token	Ethereum	4.747	4.7616	+0.31%	6.115	+28.82%	0.1276	✓	0.82	65k	2022-03-26
UNI	Uniswap	Ethereum	8.83	8.8699	+0.45%	10.64	+20.50%	0.0174	✗	1.33	11.0M	2022-03-26
LTC	Litecoin	Litecoin	104.24	105.2766	+0.99%	124.85	+19.77%	0.0059	✓	1.18	29.5M	2022-03-26
BCH	Bitcoin Cash	Bitcoin Cash	300.94	304.7054	+1.25%	362.07	+20.31%	0.0229	✓	1.00	7.3M	2022-03-26
JASMY	JasmyCoin	Ethereum	0.01693	0.017183	+1.49%	0.03654	+115.83%	0.5162	✓	1.59	11.9M	2022-03-26
XVS	Venus	Ethereum	8.95	9.0865	+1.52%	10.24	+14.41%	0.0744	✗	1.30	3.2M	2022-03-26

Δ columns are percentage price moves; alpha err and the hit column are in beta-adjusted log-return space, which is what the model actually predicts. “pending” means the horizon has not matured yet. Rows are capped for readability — add &limit=2000 to widen.