2022-02-21 · +7d

gru_s3 · in-sample — the model trained on this date · 150 tokens predicted

These numbers are in-sample. The model was trained on this date, so predicted-vs-actual agreement here is not evidence of skill.

+1d +7d +30d asset cohort only

rank IC

+0.2078

150 of 150 tokens assessed

long-short decile

+5.24%

realised beta-adjusted alpha

direction hit

72.0%

in alpha space · 24.2% on raw price

BTC over horizon

+16.66%

the unhedgeable market factor

Predicted vs actual (150 rows, sorted by pred)

token	name	chain	anchor px	pred px ▴	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d	vol 30d	target
NAKA	Nakamoto Games	Polygon	0.4311	0.410729	-4.73%	0.504	+16.91%	0.0917	✓	1.92	2.0M	2022-02-28
MOVR	Moonriver	Base	68.7997	66.2971	-3.64%	67.763	-1.51%	0.2102	✓	1.51	257k	2022-02-28
PRO	Propy	Ethereum	1.99	1.9177	-3.63%	1.84	-7.54%	0.3108	✓	1.75	680k	2022-02-28
ACH	Alchemy Pay	Ethereum	0.050288	0.048798	-2.96%	0.049264	-2.04%	0.1864	✓	1.27	7.5M	2022-02-28
NCT	PolySwarm	Ethereum	0.03362	0.032645	-2.90%	0.03503	+4.19%	0.0425	✓	0.73	1.7M	2022-02-28
POKT	Pocket Network	Ethereum	0.8883	0.863289	-2.82%	0.7584	-14.62%	0.2460	✓	0.76	1.5M	2022-02-28
CERE	Cere Network	Ethereum	0.0263	0.025562	-2.81%	0.029	+10.27%	0.0968	✓	1.45	497k	2022-02-28
ASTR	Astar	Ethereum	0.132	0.128642	-2.54%	0.132	+0.00%	0.1334	✓	1.03	51k	2022-02-28
API3	Api3	Ethereum	5.72	5.5808	-2.43%	7.529	+31.63%	0.2466	✗	0.34	2.0M	2022-02-28
ORCA	Orca	Solana	2.62	2.5569	-2.41%	2.64	+0.76%	0.1222	✓	1.00	694k	2022-02-28
SUN	Sun Token	Tron	0.012214	0.011977	-1.94%	0.012148	-0.54%	0.1636	✓	1.15	61k	2022-02-28
ICP	Internet Computer	Ethereum	17.77	17.4382	-1.87%	20.13	+13.28%	0.0371	✓	1.17	23.0M	2022-02-28
KNC	Kyber Network Crystal	Ethereum	1.7569	1.7242	-1.86%	2.4391	+38.83%	0.2645	✗	0.53	2.8M	2022-02-28
SUPER	SuperVerse	Ethereum	0.72	0.706847	-1.83%	0.75	+4.17%	0.2447	✓	1.97	1.1M	2022-02-28
BAND	Band	Ethereum	3.77	3.7053	-1.72%	3.934	+4.35%	0.1364	✓	1.27	1.9M	2022-02-28
CELL	Cellframe	Ethereum	1.646	1.62	-1.58%	1.6754	+1.79%	0.2027	✓	1.53	191k	2022-02-28
DODO	DODO	Ethereum	0.444	0.438239	-1.30%	0.461	+3.83%	0.1620	✓	1.38	4.5M	2022-02-28
RLC	iExec RLC	Ethereum	1.57	1.5498	-1.29%	1.86	+18.47%	0.0250	✓	1.35	2.0M	2022-02-28
DIA	DIA	Ethereum	0.91	0.898453	-1.27%	1.07	+17.58%	0.0206	✗	1.00	281k	2022-02-28
FIDA	Bonfida	Solana	1.853	1.8296	-1.26%	1.836	-0.92%	0.1506	✓	1.00	85k	2022-02-28
SKL	SKALE	Ethereum	0.1229	0.121405	-1.22%	0.1303	+6.02%	0.1279	✓	1.29	3.2M	2022-02-28
CWEB	Coinweb	Ethereum	0.023018	0.022754	-1.15%	0.022655	-1.58%	0.1750	✓	1.11	89k	2022-02-28
VSYS	V.SYSTEMS	native	0.01284	0.012693	-1.14%	0.01231	-4.13%	0.1504	✓	0.78	15k	2022-02-28
LEO	LEO Token	Ethereum	5.8395	5.7744	-1.11%	5.9258	+1.48%	0.0334	✓	0.38	412k	2022-02-28
POWR	Powerledger	Ethereum	0.481	0.475825	-1.08%	0.5607	+16.57%	0.0222	✗	0.92	684k	2022-02-28
ARPA	ARPA	Ethereum	0.0681	0.067401	-1.03%	0.078	+14.54%	0.0666	✓	1.38	1.1M	2022-02-28
PEOPLE	ConstitutionDAO	Ethereum	0.0474	0.046916	-1.02%	0.0703	+48.31%	0.1315	✗	1.77	64.3M	2022-02-28
JUV	Juventus Fan Token	Solana	5.83	5.7716	-1.00%	6.6	+13.21%	0.0028	✓	0.89	430k	2022-02-28
XYO	XYO Network	Ethereum	0.018035	0.017854	-1.00%	0.0214	+18.66%	0.0067	✓	1.13	2.2M	2022-02-28
TRB	Tellor Tributes	Ethereum	17.63	17.4559	-0.99%	21.16	+20.02%	0.0440	✓	1.53	350k	2022-02-28
LUNA	Terra	Terra 2	50.13	49.6404	-0.98%	91.38	+82.29%	0.4022	✗	1.35	4.8M	2022-02-28
METRONOME	METRONOME		2.2241	2.203	-0.95%	2.1929	-1.40%	0.1462	✓	0.92	28k	2022-02-28
BTTC	BTTC		0.00000194	0.000001922	-0.94%	0.00000199	+2.58%	0.1193	✓	1.00	14.4M	2022-02-28
STX	Stacks	native	1.11	1.1	-0.90%	1.25	+12.61%	0.0737	✓	1.31	782k	2022-02-28
XPR	XPR Network	Ethereum	0.01004	0.009952	-0.87%	0.01099	+9.46%	0.1404	✓	1.55	2.2M	2022-02-28
CRV	Curve DAO	Ethereum	2.34	2.3198	-0.86%	2.442	+4.36%	0.1892	✓	1.56	14.4M	2022-02-28
FIL	Filecoin	Filecoin	18.64	18.4794	-0.86%	21.72	+16.52%	0.0294	✓	1.24	10.1M	2022-02-28
OG	OG Fan Token	Solana	2.889	2.8644	-0.85%	3.233	+11.91%	0.0227	✓	0.93	481k	2022-02-28
RAD	Radworks	Ethereum	5.07	5.0272	-0.84%	4.85	-4.34%	0.1892	✓	0.99	682k	2022-02-28
IOTA	IOTA	IOTA	0.7113	0.705425	-0.83%	0.7967	+12.01%	0.0535	✓	1.14	9.9M	2022-02-28
LCX	LCX	Ethereum	0.0877	0.086978	-0.82%	0.0857	-2.28%	0.2463	✓	1.50	700k	2022-02-28
AVAX	Avalanche	Avalanche	70.08	69.505	-0.82%	84.59	+20.70%	0.0344	✓	1.50	106.7M	2022-02-28
ATOM	Cosmos Hub	Cosmos	23.83	23.6359	-0.81%	31.38	+31.68%	0.1141	✗	1.10	56.2M	2022-02-28
BNT	Bancor Network	Ethereum	2.17	2.1527	-0.80%	2.44	+12.44%	0.0319	✓	1.02	283k	2022-02-28
XTZ	Tezos	Tezos	2.9731	2.9498	-0.78%	3.5483	+19.35%	0.0150	✓	1.30	2.1M	2022-02-28
LRC	Loopring	Ethereum	0.7421	0.736408	-0.77%	0.823	+10.90%	0.1172	✓	1.48	411k	2022-02-28
YFI	yearn.finance	Ethereum	19,642.84	19,493.03	-0.76%	21,589.29	+9.91%	0.0562	✓	1.03	5.8M	2022-02-28
ORBS	Orbs	Ethereum	0.0613	0.060833	-0.76%	0.0695	+13.38%	0.0323	✓	1.07	14k	2022-02-28
ENS	Ethereum Name Service	Ethereum	13.9	13.7961	-0.75%	15.37	+10.58%	0.1476	✓	1.66	2.9M	2022-02-28
PSG	Paris Saint-Germain Fan Token	Solana	13.77	13.6683	-0.74%	16.18	+17.50%	0.0548	✗	0.74	1.8M	2022-02-28
OMG	OMG Network	Ethereum	3.7534	3.7267	-0.71%	4.2345	+12.82%	0.0568	✓	1.20	309k	2022-02-28
XMR	Monero	Monero	148	146.9574	-0.70%	170.31	+15.07%	0.0072	✓	1.00	1.0M	2022-02-28
MANA	Decentraland	Ethereum	2.4827	2.4653	-0.70%	2.8507	+14.82%	0.0494	✓	1.26	3.2M	2022-02-28
MASK	Mask Network	Ethereum	4.2	4.1724	-0.66%	4.86	+15.71%	0.0168	✓	1.10	485k	2022-02-28
COMP	Compound	Ethereum	106.4	105.7018	-0.66%	120.75	+13.49%	0.0660	✓	1.29	59k	2022-02-28
DUSK	DUSK	Ethereum	0.3401	0.33788	-0.65%	0.3657	+7.53%	0.1785	✓	1.67	16.7M	2022-02-28
NANO	nanopay	Base	1.9047	1.8927	-0.63%	1.9381	+1.75%	0.1668	✓	1.24	218k	2022-02-28
MINA	Mina Protocol	native	2.16	2.1466	-0.62%	2.21	+2.31%	0.1584	✓	1.22	324k	2022-02-28
ENJ	Enjin Coin	Ethereum	1.384	1.3756	-0.61%	1.566	+13.15%	0.0904	✓	1.43	970k	2022-02-28
XYM	Symbol	native	0.1488	0.147899	-0.61%	0.1531	+2.89%	0.0922	✓	0.82	362k	2022-02-28
UOS	Ultra	Ethereum	1.1385	1.1317	-0.60%	1.3278	+16.62%	0.0396	✓	1.29	2.5M	2022-02-28
AVT	Aventus	Ethereum	2.37	2.3558	-0.60%	2.52	+6.33%	0.0867	✓	1.00	639k	2022-02-28
BFC	Bifrost	Ethereum	0.15154	0.150633	-0.60%	0.16639	+9.80%	0.1182	✓	1.41	30k	2022-02-28
ACM	AC Milan Fan Token	Solana	4.021	3.997	-0.60%	4.565	+13.53%	0.0009	✓	0.86	383k	2022-02-28
SANTOS	Santos FC Fan Token	Binance Smart Chain	2.321	2.3072	-0.59%	3.317	+42.91%	0.1666	✗	1.27	845k	2022-02-28
UMA	UMA	Ethereum	4.92	4.8913	-0.58%	7.228	+46.91%	0.2352	✗	1.01	1.8M	2022-02-28
RIF	Rootstock Infrastructure Framework	Ethereum	0.1283	0.127566	-0.57%	0.1612	+25.64%	0.0747	✗	1.03	467k	2022-02-28
LAZIO	Lazio Fan Token	Binance Smart Chain	2.8682	2.8528	-0.54%	3.1104	+8.44%	0.0701	✓	1.02	2.4M	2022-02-28
NMR	Numeraire	Ethereum	26.51	26.3695	-0.53%	30.9	+16.56%	0.0081	✗	0.98	1.5M	2022-02-28
1INCH	1INCH	Ethereum	1.37	1.363	-0.51%	1.505	+9.85%	0.0910	✓	1.23	1.1M	2022-02-28
ZEC	Zcash	Zcash	100.47	99.9669	-0.50%	118.68	+18.12%	0.0121	✓	1.19	7.6M	2022-02-28
DASH	Dash	Dash	87.04	86.6046	-0.50%	100.51	+15.48%	0.0289	✓	1.15	1.5M	2022-02-28
SUSHI	Sushi	Ethereum	3.28	3.2645	-0.47%	3.54	+7.93%	0.1337	✓	1.39	7.1M	2022-02-28
PORTO	FC Porto	Binance Smart Chain	2.8775	2.864	-0.47%	3.1196	+8.41%	0.0699	✓	1.01	2.5M	2022-02-28
AUCTION	Bounce	Ethereum	12.48	12.4219	-0.47%	14.2	+13.78%	0.0245	✓	1.03	404k	2022-02-28
XVG	Verge	native	0.00929	0.009249	-0.45%	0.01037	+11.63%	0.0857	✓	1.30	1.2M	2022-02-28
BAT	Basic Attention	Ethereum	0.64579	0.642973	-0.44%	0.74117	+14.77%	0.0903	✓	1.51	278k	2022-02-28
CVC	Civic	Ethereum	0.2293	0.228302	-0.44%	0.2945	+28.43%	0.0772	✗	1.15	469k	2022-02-28
ADA	Cardano	Cardano	0.8572	0.853622	-0.42%	0.964	+12.46%	0.0544	✓	1.14	97.3M	2022-02-28
FTT	FTX	Ethereum	39.81	39.6455	-0.41%	45.95	+15.42%	0.0315	✓	1.16	27.6M	2022-02-28
LPT	Livepeer	Ethereum	21.87	21.7799	-0.41%	26.36	+20.53%	0.0416	✓	1.51	1.8M	2022-02-28
CITY	Manchester City Fan Token	Solana	9.06	9.0239	-0.40%	10.15	+12.03%	0.0089	✗	0.70	758k	2022-02-28
SNX	Synthetix	Ethereum	3.73	3.7153	-0.40%	4.154	+11.37%	0.0802	✓	1.24	2.3M	2022-02-28
DOGE	Dogecoin	Dogecoin	0.128094	0.127591	-0.39%	0.133451	+4.18%	0.1109	✓	1.01	4.2M	2022-02-28
ATM	Atletico Madrid Fan Token	Solana	4.83	4.8119	-0.37%	5.51	+14.08%	0.0132	✗	0.79	431k	2022-02-28
AGLD	Adventure Gold	Ethereum	0.92	0.916604	-0.37%	1.236	+34.35%	0.1066	✗	1.25	934k	2022-02-28
WBTC	Wrapped Bitcoin	Ethereum	37,080.10	36,956.64	-0.33%	43,136.20	+16.33%	0.0055	✗	0.97	42k	2022-02-28
OXT	Orchid Protocol	Ethereum	0.2206	0.219886	-0.32%	0.2454	+11.24%	0.0486	✓	1.03	1.9M	2022-02-28
MED	Medibloc	Osmosis	0.03591	0.035801	-0.30%	0.04194	+16.79%	0.0127	✓	1.11	32k	2022-02-28
ALGO	Algorand	Algorand	0.7852	0.782894	-0.29%	0.8684	+10.60%	0.0880	✓	1.24	23.9M	2022-02-28
SHIB	Shiba Inu	Ethereum	0.00002404	0.000023971	-0.29%	0.00002579	+7.28%	0.1411	✓	1.39	3.7M	2022-02-28
TRAC	OriginTrail	Ethereum	0.4442	0.442951	-0.28%	0.5007	+12.72%	0.1004	✓	1.45	586k	2022-02-28
ETC	Ethereum Classic	native	25	24.9318	-0.27%	30.53	+22.12%	0.0348	✗	1.09	5.2M	2022-02-28
HIVE	Hive	native	0.8148	0.812586	-0.27%	0.9803	+20.31%	0.0524	✓	1.56	1.8M	2022-02-28
LSK	Lisk	Ethereum	1.6127	1.6083	-0.27%	1.7163	+6.42%	0.1097	✓	1.13	75k	2022-02-28
BAR	FC Barcelona Fan Token	Solana	5.27	5.2561	-0.26%	7.55	+43.26%	0.2270	✗	0.88	398k	2022-02-28
GRT	The Graph	Ethereum	0.3572	0.356266	-0.26%	0.3772	+5.60%	0.1596	✓	1.41	8.7M	2022-02-28
LINK	Chainlink	Ethereum	13.51	13.4748	-0.26%	15.14	+12.07%	0.0707	✓	1.21	61.5M	2022-02-28
SPELL	Spell	Ethereum	0.00451	0.004498	-0.26%	0.00439	-2.66%	0.3204	✓	1.92	12.9M	2022-02-28
BEL	Bella Protocol	Ethereum	0.739	0.737158	-0.25%	0.877	+18.67%	0.0355	✓	1.36	2.1M	2022-02-28
DYDX	dYdX	Cosmos	5.32	5.3068	-0.25%	5.875	+10.43%	0.0565	✓	1.03	297k	2022-02-28
AMP	Amp	Ethereum	0.0257	0.025637	-0.24%	0.02937	+14.28%	0.0167	✗	0.77	4.7M	2022-02-28
TWT	Trust Wallet	Binance Smart Chain	0.4728	0.471684	-0.24%	0.5696	+20.47%	0.0146	✓	1.32	2.3M	2022-02-28
QTUM	Qtum	Qtum	5.7431	5.7298	-0.23%	6.4925	+13.05%	0.1030	✓	1.48	172k	2022-02-28
CHZ	Chiliz	Ethereum	0.1686	0.168222	-0.22%	0.1925	+14.18%	0.0812	✓	1.40	3.0M	2022-02-28
DEXE	DeXe	Ethereum	6.72	6.7059	-0.21%	6.6	-1.79%	0.0485	✓	0.21	1.3M	2022-02-28
AAVE	Aave	Ethereum	128.58	128.3271	-0.20%	145.83	+13.42%	0.0949	✓	1.45	6.7M	2022-02-28
EWT	Energy Web Token	Ethereum	5.241	5.2309	-0.19%	5.63	+7.42%	0.0501	✓	0.80	65k	2022-02-28
BICO	Biconomy	Ethereum	1.3	1.2975	-0.19%	1.352	+4.00%	0.1713	✓	1.38	1.9M	2022-02-28
SOL	Solana	Solana	82.97	82.8486	-0.15%	99.74	+20.21%	0.0059	✓	1.24	154.8M	2022-02-28
CTSI	Cartesi	Ethereum	0.3661	0.365581	-0.14%	0.3943	+7.70%	0.1450	✓	1.43	1.5M	2022-02-28
BCH	Bitcoin Cash	Bitcoin Cash	283.16	282.7643	-0.14%	339.27	+19.82%	0.0304	✗	0.98	8.0M	2022-02-28
LTC	Litecoin	Litecoin	102.78	102.6446	-0.13%	113.82	+10.74%	0.0839	✓	1.21	29.9M	2022-02-28
KSM	Kusama	Hydration	125.92	125.7598	-0.13%	130.28	+3.46%	0.1484	✓	1.19	930k	2022-02-28
PHA	PHALA	Ethereum	0.248	0.247689	-0.13%	0.236	-4.84%	0.1911	✓	0.93	68k	2022-02-28
ZRX	0x Protocol	Ethereum	0.519067	0.518418	-0.13%	0.575051	+10.79%	0.0734	✓	1.15	3.5M	2022-02-28
OGN	Origin Token	Ethereum	0.279	0.278715	-0.10%	0.308	+10.39%	0.1067	✓	1.34	2.0M	2022-02-28
ASM	Assemble AI	Ethereum	0.04508	0.045035	-0.10%	0.04871	+8.05%	0.1352	✓	1.39	865k	2022-02-28
BCHSV	Bitcoin Cash SV		80.87	80.7982	-0.09%	88.67	+9.65%	0.0442	✓	0.89	1.0M	2022-02-28
GTC	Gitcoin	Ethereum	5.95	5.9448	-0.09%	6.79	+14.12%	0.0709	✗	0.40	1.4M	2022-02-28
DOT	Polkadot	Polkadot	16.19	16.1758	-0.09%	18.95	+17.05%	0.0475	✓	1.34	30.0M	2022-02-28
ZEN	Horizen	Base	32.14	32.117	-0.07%	37.91	+17.95%	0.0736	✓	1.55	335k	2022-02-28
AXS	Axie Infinity	Ethereum	47.35	47.3164	-0.07%	54.42	+14.93%	0.0587	✓	1.29	8.1M	2022-02-28
ASR	AS Roma Fan Token	Solana	2.583	2.5816	-0.05%	3.115	+20.60%	0.0584	✗	0.84	203k	2022-02-28
DKA	dKargo	Ethereum	0.0791	0.079083	-0.02%	0.09213	+16.47%	0.0170	✓	1.10	49k	2022-02-28
TRX	TRON	Tron	0.059472	0.059461	-0.02%	0.061786	+3.89%	0.0911	✓	0.84	307k	2022-02-28
KCS	KuCoin	native	18.137	18.1397	+0.01%	20.677	+14.00%	0.0522	✗	1.19	9.8M	2022-02-28
GT	Gate	Ethereum	6.0829	6.0843	+0.02%	6.71	+10.31%	0.0333	✗	0.85	3.2M	2022-02-28
ETH	Ethereum	Ethereum	2,569.00	2,569.95	+0.04%	2,923.08	+13.78%	0.0409	✗	1.10	581.4M	2022-02-28
GODS	Gods Unchained	Ethereum	1.25	1.2505	+0.04%	1.36	+8.80%	0.1113	✗	1.27	1.1M	2022-02-28
GITCOIN	GITCOIN		6.04	6.0436	+0.06%	6.75	+11.75%	0.0538	✓	0.37	32k	2022-02-28
TKO	Tokocrypto	Binance Smart Chain	0.64	0.640536	+0.08%	0.697	+8.91%	0.0804	✗	1.07	1.9M	2022-02-28
XLM	Stellar	Stellar	0.17816	0.178336	+0.10%	0.197675	+10.95%	0.0594	✗	1.05	21.8M	2022-02-28
ANKR	Ankr Network	Ethereum	0.05994	0.060001	+0.10%	0.07201	+20.14%	0.0578	✓	0.81	80k	2022-02-28
CBK	Cobak	Ethereum	1.933	1.9354	+0.12%	2.477	+28.14%	0.0846	✓	1.05	20k	2022-02-28
MTL	Metal DAO	Metal L2	1.34	1.3418	+0.13%	1.571	+17.24%	0.0209	✗	1.16	2.0M	2022-02-28
SC	Siacoin	native	0.00847	0.008483	+0.15%	0.00968	+14.29%	0.0297	✗	1.05	504k	2022-02-28
QNT	Quant	Ethereum	106.88	107.0556	+0.16%	115.74	+8.29%	0.0728	✗	0.98	6.6M	2022-02-28
XEC	eCash	native	0.00006783	0.000067942	+0.17%	0.00007869	+16.01%	0.0304	✗	1.15	4.6M	2022-02-28
XVS	Venus	Ethereum	8.64	8.6545	+0.17%	9.33	+7.99%	0.1253	✗	1.30	3.2M	2022-02-28
CTK	Shentu	Osmosis	1.003	1.0049	+0.19%	1.164	+16.05%	0.0457	✗	1.25	3.0M	2022-02-28
STORJ	Storj	Ethereum	0.88573	0.887911	+0.25%	1.0426	+17.71%	0.0056	✗	1.08	165k	2022-02-28
BTC	Bitcoin	Bitcoin	37,023.00	37,119.35	+0.26%	43,192.66	+16.66%	0.0026	✓	1.00	633.0M	2022-02-28
DNT	district0x	Ethereum	0.0692	0.069436	+0.34%	0.073	+5.49%	0.1261	✗	1.14	194k	2022-02-28
GLMR	Moonbeam	Base	2.332	2.34	+0.34%	2.664	+14.24%	0.0803	✗	1.36	579k	2022-02-28
XEM	NEM	native	0.0927	0.093077	+0.41%	0.1081	+16.61%	0.0073	✗	1.02	38k	2022-02-28
COTI	COTI	Ethereum	0.2042	0.205066	+0.42%	0.2321	+13.66%	0.1139	✗	1.54	3.6M	2022-02-28
UNI	Uniswap	Ethereum	8.52	8.5653	+0.53%	10.53	+23.59%	0.0025	✓	1.32	11.2M	2022-02-28
IMX	Immutable	Ethereum	1.58	1.5901	+0.64%	1.564	-1.01%	0.1855	✗	1.10	3.3M	2022-02-28
JASMY	JasmyCoin	Ethereum	0.01937	0.019525	+0.80%	0.01796	-7.28%	0.3372	✗	1.65	10.9M	2022-02-28

Δ columns are percentage price moves; alpha err and the hit column are in beta-adjusted log-return space, which is what the model actually predicts. “pending” means the horizon has not matured yet. Rows are capped for readability — add &limit=2000 to widen.