2022-01-28 · +1d

gru_s4 · in-sample — the model trained on this date · 144 tokens predicted

These numbers are in-sample. The model was trained on this date, so predicted-vs-actual agreement here is not evidence of skill.

+1d +7d +30d asset cohort only

rank IC

+0.1774

144 of 144 tokens assessed

long-short decile

+2.46%

realised beta-adjusted alpha

direction hit

56.2%

in alpha space · 53.8% on raw price

BTC over horizon

+1.19%

the unhedgeable market factor

Predicted vs actual (144 rows, sorted by pred)

token	name	chain	anchor px	pred px ▾	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d	vol 30d	target
SPELL	Spell	Ethereum	0.00547	0.00552	+0.92%	0.00723	+32.18%	0.2430	✓	2.27	21.3M	2022-01-29
SUSHI	Sushi	Ethereum	4.16	4.1789	+0.45%	4.19	+0.72%	0.0133	✗	1.35	11.6M	2022-01-29
MOVR	Moonriver	Base	77.0062	77.3498	+0.45%	79.3124	+2.99%	0.0106	✓	1.22	437k	2022-01-29
BICO	Biconomy	Ethereum	1.97	1.9781	+0.41%	2.36	+19.80%	0.1591	✓	1.47	4.2M	2022-01-29
NAKA	Nakamoto Games	Polygon	0.482	0.483686	+0.35%	0.4988	+3.49%	0.0135	✓	1.46	2.1M	2022-01-29
LCX	LCX	Ethereum	0.0927	0.092986	+0.31%	0.11	+18.66%	0.1506	✓	1.47	1.7M	2022-01-29
TRAC	OriginTrail	Ethereum	0.5887	0.590352	+0.28%	0.5968	+1.38%	0.0073	✗	1.53	1.4M	2022-01-29
CRV	Curve DAO	Ethereum	2.93	2.9382	+0.28%	2.99	+2.05%	0.0009	✓	1.40	25.6M	2022-01-29
AAVE	Aave	Ethereum	149.11	149.5188	+0.27%	154.04	+3.31%	0.0137	✓	1.36	13.3M	2022-01-29
ICP	Internet Computer	Ethereum	20.31	20.3656	+0.27%	20.18	-0.64%	0.0240	✗	1.25	34.3M	2022-01-29
XVS	Venus	Ethereum	8.42	8.443	+0.27%	8.22	-2.38%	0.0424	✗	1.32	2.8M	2022-01-29
GTC	Gitcoin	Ethereum	7.1	7.1191	+0.27%	7.35	+3.52%	0.0285	✓	0.29	1.9M	2022-01-29
SOL	Solana	Solana	91.35	91.5899	+0.26%	96.25	+5.36%	0.0356	✓	1.18	164.2M	2022-01-29
ACH	Alchemy Pay	Ethereum	0.038917	0.039015	+0.25%	0.039999	+2.78%	0.0105	✓	1.22	10.1M	2022-01-29
AXS	Axie Infinity	Ethereum	47.09	47.2077	+0.25%	49.58	+5.29%	0.0353	✓	1.16	7.5M	2022-01-29
AGLD	Adventure Gold	Ethereum	0.85	0.852062	+0.24%	0.85	+0.00%	0.0204	✗	1.52	528k	2022-01-29
TKO	Tokocrypto	Binance Smart Chain	0.736	0.737779	+0.24%	0.731	-0.68%	0.0223	✗	1.11	1.9M	2022-01-29
UNI	Uniswap	Ethereum	10.67	10.6951	+0.23%	11.16	+4.59%	0.0268	✓	1.33	12.5M	2022-01-29
DOT	Polkadot	Polkadot	18.34	18.3823	+0.23%	18.75	+2.24%	0.0035	✓	1.38	51.5M	2022-01-29
CWEB	Coinweb	Ethereum	0.046901	0.047009	+0.23%	0.04515	-3.73%	0.0522	✗	1.00	321k	2022-01-29
RAD	Radworks	Ethereum	5.11	5.1217	+0.23%	5.34	+4.50%	0.0301	✓	0.98	1.0M	2022-01-29
XYO	XYO Network	Ethereum	0.020623	0.020669	+0.22%	0.022029	+6.82%	0.0505	✓	1.12	3.2M	2022-01-29
RIF	Rootstock Infrastructure Framework	Ethereum	0.1177	0.117957	+0.22%	0.1205	+2.38%	0.0101	✓	0.95	337k	2022-01-29
JASMY	JasmyCoin	Ethereum	0.04731	0.047393	+0.18%	0.05052	+6.79%	0.0482	✓	1.33	9.2M	2022-01-29
CERE	Cere Network	Ethereum	0.0353	0.035361	+0.17%	0.0362	+2.55%	0.0061	✓	1.47	852k	2022-01-29
LRC	Loopring	Ethereum	0.9906	0.992289	+0.17%	0.9684	-2.24%	0.0476	✗	1.97	1.1M	2022-01-29
LINK	Chainlink	Ethereum	16.16	16.1874	+0.17%	16.24	+0.50%	0.0112	✗	1.22	81.3M	2022-01-29
RLC	iExec RLC	Ethereum	1.82	1.8231	+0.17%	1.92	+5.49%	0.0357	✓	1.36	2.8M	2022-01-29
ASM	Assemble AI	Ethereum	0.05152	0.051603	+0.16%	0.06396	+24.15%	0.1978	✓	1.43	1.7M	2022-01-29
QNT	Quant	Ethereum	97.25	97.4011	+0.16%	97.51	+0.27%	0.0112	✗	1.04	7.5M	2022-01-29
KSM	Kusama	Hydration	169	169.2583	+0.15%	171.16	+1.28%	0.0030	✗	1.20	1.3M	2022-01-29
MASK	Mask Network	Ethereum	5.91	5.9186	+0.15%	6.1	+3.21%	0.0188	✓	0.96	953k	2022-01-29
MINA	Mina Protocol	native	2.29	2.2932	+0.14%	2.31	+0.87%	0.0067	✗	1.19	611k	2022-01-29
CHZ	Chiliz	Ethereum	0.1798	0.180042	+0.13%	0.1844	+2.56%	0.0077	✓	1.37	3.9M	2022-01-29
FIL	Filecoin	Filecoin	19.63	19.6553	+0.13%	20.29	+3.36%	0.0178	✓	1.18	13.3M	2022-01-29
XTZ	Tezos	Tezos	3.0264	3.0302	+0.13%	3.0915	+2.15%	0.0039	✓	1.36	2.5M	2022-01-29
YFI	yearn.finance	Ethereum	23,506.67	23,535.71	+0.12%	24,297.65	+3.36%	0.0210	✓	0.92	19.5M	2022-01-29
SHIB	Shiba Inu	Ethereum	0.00002134	0.000021365	+0.12%	0.00002166	+1.50%	0.0030	✗	1.41	1.7M	2022-01-29
XVG	Verge	native	0.00986	0.009871	+0.11%	0.01002	+1.62%	0.0008	✓	1.33	1.6M	2022-01-29
COMP	Compound	Ethereum	124.2	124.341	+0.11%	123.06	-0.92%	0.0255	✗	1.28	74k	2022-01-29
XMR	Monero	Monero	149.15	149.31	+0.11%	153.67	+3.03%	0.0168	✓	1.01	2.2M	2022-01-29
GITCOIN	GITCOIN		7.091	7.0986	+0.11%	7.324	+3.29%	0.0283	✓	0.25	38k	2022-01-29
UMA	UMA	Ethereum	6.01	6.0159	+0.10%	6.08	+1.16%	0.0021	✗	1.07	2.4M	2022-01-29
OGN	Origin Token	Ethereum	0.328	0.328308	+0.09%	0.333	+1.52%	0.0022	✗	1.39	1.7M	2022-01-29
CBK	Cobak	Ethereum	2.181	2.183	+0.09%	2.245	+2.93%	0.0152	✓	1.08	23k	2022-01-29
BCH	Bitcoin Cash	Bitcoin Cash	296.79	297.064	+0.09%	299.03	+0.75%	0.0058	✗	1.04	7.8M	2022-01-29
AVAX	Avalanche	Avalanche	67.06	67.1204	+0.09%	71.95	+7.29%	0.0538	✓	1.32	87.3M	2022-01-29
BEL	Bella Protocol	Ethereum	0.899	0.899804	+0.09%	0.924	+2.78%	0.0103	✓	1.37	2.4M	2022-01-29
DODO	DODO	Ethereum	0.491	0.491428	+0.09%	0.508	+3.46%	0.0150	✓	1.53	5.3M	2022-01-29
SUPER	SuperVerse	Ethereum	0.64	0.640494	+0.08%	0.66	+3.12%	0.0080	✓	1.86	1.2M	2022-01-29
GRT	The Graph	Ethereum	0.4141	0.414415	+0.08%	0.4104	-0.89%	0.0249	✗	1.28	10.2M	2022-01-29
DASH	Dash	Dash	95.64	95.7123	+0.08%	96.55	+0.95%	0.0053	✗	1.18	3.0M	2022-01-29
EWT	Energy Web Token	Ethereum	6.131	6.1355	+0.07%	6.001	-2.12%	0.0321	✗	0.84	133k	2022-01-29
BAND	Band	Ethereum	3.46	3.4625	+0.07%	3.51	+1.45%	0.0010	✗	1.24	2.5M	2022-01-29
IOTA	IOTA	IOTA	0.8173	0.817813	+0.06%	0.8302	+1.58%	0.0020	✓	1.10	19.5M	2022-01-29
LUNA	Terra	Terra 2	50.6	50.6309	+0.06%	50.93	+0.65%	0.0135	✗	1.64	8.8M	2022-01-29
ZRX	0x Protocol	Ethereum	0.544057	0.544377	+0.06%	0.565434	+3.93%	0.0236	✓	1.22	3.7M	2022-01-29
ZEC	Zcash	Zcash	91.3	91.3438	+0.05%	96.39	+5.58%	0.0382	✓	1.32	7.0M	2022-01-29
GODS	Gods Unchained	Ethereum	2.25	2.251	+0.05%	2.34	+4.00%	0.0205	✓	1.54	2.4M	2022-01-29
BAR	FC Barcelona Fan Token	Solana	5.81	5.8117	+0.03%	5.93	+2.07%	0.0109	✓	0.78	481k	2022-01-29
XEC	eCash	native	0.00007277	0.000072791	+0.03%	0.00007692	+5.70%	0.0420	✓	1.11	5.8M	2022-01-29
STORJ	Storj	Ethereum	1.1266	1.1269	+0.02%	1.154	+2.43%	0.0121	✓	0.99	385k	2022-01-29
ALGO	Algorand	Algorand	0.9591	0.959244	+0.01%	0.9693	+1.06%	0.0034	✗	1.17	37.7M	2022-01-29
LTC	Litecoin	Litecoin	109.49	109.5048	+0.01%	110.84	+1.23%	0.0037	✗	1.34	33.8M	2022-01-29
1INCH	1INCH	Ethereum	1.65	1.6502	+0.01%	1.72	+4.24%	0.0263	✓	1.28	2.2M	2022-01-29
MTL	Metal DAO	Metal L2	1.438	1.4381	+0.01%	1.493	+3.82%	0.0235	✓	1.18	1.6M	2022-01-29
TRB	Tellor Tributes	Ethereum	20.08	20.0813	+0.01%	20.73	+3.24%	0.0133	✓	1.56	814k	2022-01-29
AMP	Amp	Ethereum	0.03024	0.030242	+0.01%	0.03035	+0.36%	0.0075	✗	0.93	8.7M	2022-01-29
XPR	XPR Network	Ethereum	0.01046	0.010461	+0.01%	0.0104	-0.57%	0.0209	✗	1.28	2.2M	2022-01-29
LAZIO	Lazio Fan Token	Binance Smart Chain	3.1165	3.1166	+0.00%	3.1573	+1.31%	0.0000	✓	1.10	3.4M	2022-01-29
TRX	TRON	Tron	0.057631	0.05763	-0.00%	0.060341	+4.70%	0.0348	✗	0.94	478k	2022-01-29
PHA	PHALA	Ethereum	0.247	0.246989	-0.00%	0.251	+1.62%	0.0048	✗	0.96	67k	2022-01-29
LSK	Lisk	Ethereum	1.6203	1.6202	-0.00%	1.6081	-0.75%	0.0207	✓	1.12	82k	2022-01-29
QTUM	Qtum	Qtum	5.7966	5.7963	-0.01%	5.9616	+2.85%	0.0112	✗	1.43	224k	2022-01-29
ENS	Ethereum Name Service	Ethereum	17.9	17.8977	-0.01%	20.07	+12.12%	0.0930	✗	1.82	3.9M	2022-01-29
SUN	Sun Token	Tron	0.014181	0.014178	-0.02%	0.014518	+2.38%	0.0097	✗	1.19	2.7M	2022-01-29
OXT	Orchid Protocol	Ethereum	0.2434	0.243343	-0.02%	0.2425	-0.37%	0.0182	✓	1.24	1.9M	2022-01-29
DEXE	DeXe	Ethereum	6.49	6.4879	-0.03%	6.65	+2.47%	0.0221	✗	0.22	1.2M	2022-01-29
ETC	Ethereum Classic	native	25.23	25.2212	-0.03%	25.34	+0.44%	0.0081	✓	1.08	3.4M	2022-01-29
NANO	nanopay	Base	2.3494	2.3486	-0.03%	2.3362	-0.57%	0.0200	✓	1.24	884k	2022-01-29
ATM	Atletico Madrid Fan Token	Solana	5.14	5.1379	-0.04%	5.16	+0.39%	0.0043	✓	0.73	437k	2022-01-29
SKL	SKALE	Ethereum	0.1183	0.118252	-0.04%	0.121	+2.28%	0.0075	✗	1.31	3.8M	2022-01-29
LPT	Livepeer	Ethereum	25.85	25.8373	-0.05%	27.09	+4.80%	0.0275	✗	1.68	2.7M	2022-01-29
MED	Medibloc	Osmosis	0.04014	0.040119	-0.05%	0.04089	+1.87%	0.0057	✗	1.13	31k	2022-01-29
LEO	LEO Token	Ethereum	3.4691	3.4666	-0.07%	3.4878	+0.54%	0.0063	✗	-0.02	350k	2022-01-29
BTC	Bitcoin	Bitcoin	37,741.90	37,713.92	-0.07%	38,191.10	+1.19%	0.0007	✓	1.00	734.4M	2022-01-29
CTSI	Cartesi	Ethereum	0.4527	0.452357	-0.08%	0.4637	+2.43%	0.0085	✗	1.38	2.4M	2022-01-29
ASR	AS Roma Fan Token	Solana	3.011	3.0087	-0.08%	3.009	-0.07%	0.0093	✓	0.80	407k	2022-01-29
UOS	Ultra	Ethereum	1.0442	1.0434	-0.08%	1.0479	+0.35%	0.0109	✓	1.29	2.4M	2022-01-29
ETH	Ethereum	Ethereum	2,546.84	2,544.80	-0.08%	2,603.74	+2.23%	0.0098	✗	1.11	569.1M	2022-01-29
WBTC	Wrapped Bitcoin	Ethereum	37,761.00	37,730.79	-0.08%	38,181.60	+1.11%	0.0001	✓	1.01	53k	2022-01-29
HIVE	Hive	native	0.931	0.930237	-0.08%	0.952	+2.26%	0.0052	✗	1.52	2.6M	2022-01-29
SC	Siacoin	native	0.0101	0.010091	-0.09%	0.01015	+0.50%	0.0067	✓	1.05	598k	2022-01-29
ACM	AC Milan Fan Token	Solana	3.923	3.9196	-0.09%	4.042	+3.03%	0.0215	✗	0.78	381k	2022-01-29
ENJ	Enjin Coin	Ethereum	1.639	1.6375	-0.09%	1.758	+7.26%	0.0556	✗	1.30	1.7M	2022-01-29
AUCTION	Bounce	Ethereum	14.23	14.2168	-0.09%	14.12	-0.77%	0.0186	✓	0.99	886k	2022-01-29
ATOM	Cosmos Hub	Cosmos	29.5	29.4718	-0.10%	29.1	-1.36%	0.0261	✓	1.13	130.3M	2022-01-29
SNX	Synthetix	Ethereum	4.57	4.5655	-0.10%	5.4	+18.16%	0.1532	✗	1.24	3.0M	2022-01-29
BNT	Bancor Network	Ethereum	2.4	2.3976	-0.10%	2.42	+0.83%	0.0028	✓	1.02	794k	2022-01-29
GLMR	Moonbeam	Base	6.452	6.4456	-0.10%	6.173	-4.32%	0.0550	✓	1.00	1.5M	2022-01-29
DNT	district0x	Ethereum	0.0812	0.081118	-0.10%	0.0817	+0.62%	0.0075	✓	1.24	338k	2022-01-29
SANTOS	Santos FC Fan Token	Binance Smart Chain	2.647	2.6443	-0.10%	2.667	+0.76%	0.0096	✓	1.53	986k	2022-01-29
TWT	Trust Wallet	Binance Smart Chain	0.5223	0.52176	-0.10%	0.5251	+0.54%	0.0098	✓	1.36	2.7M	2022-01-29
OMG	OMG Network	Ethereum	4.5826	4.5778	-0.10%	4.851	+5.86%	0.0435	✗	1.22	430k	2022-01-29
MANA	Decentraland	Ethereum	2.2835	2.2808	-0.12%	2.372	+3.87%	0.0280	✗	0.95	2.8M	2022-01-29
XLM	Stellar	Stellar	0.198646	0.198403	-0.12%	0.203491	+2.44%	0.0131	✗	1.03	26.2M	2022-01-29
PSG	Paris Saint-Germain Fan Token	Solana	12.86	12.8439	-0.13%	13.15	+2.26%	0.0155	✗	0.68	774k	2022-01-29
BCHSV	Bitcoin Cash SV		90.37	90.2498	-0.13%	92.7	+2.58%	0.0156	✗	0.94	1.7M	2022-01-29
DOGE	Dogecoin	Dogecoin	0.141603	0.14141	-0.14%	0.143169	+1.11%	0.0000	✓	1.05	7.1M	2022-01-29
KCS	KuCoin	native	16.846	16.8195	-0.16%	17.542	+4.13%	0.0242	✗	1.51	10.9M	2022-01-29
ZEN	Horizen	Base	38.97	38.9062	-0.16%	41.64	+6.85%	0.0492	✗	1.58	626k	2022-01-29
CITY	Manchester City Fan Token	Solana	9.05	9.0349	-0.17%	9.17	+1.33%	0.0060	✗	0.75	709k	2022-01-29
ANKR	Ankr Network	Ethereum	0.07192	0.071796	-0.17%	0.0727	+1.08%	0.0033	✗	0.78	67k	2022-01-29
ADA	Cardano	Cardano	1.0486	1.0467	-0.19%	1.0603	+1.12%	0.0004	✓	1.13	113.2M	2022-01-29
GT	Gate	Ethereum	6.5861	6.5739	-0.19%	6.7736	+2.85%	0.0190	✗	0.93	4.3M	2022-01-29
PORTO	FC Porto	Binance Smart Chain	2.7962	2.7909	-0.19%	2.9824	+6.66%	0.0542	✗	1.03	1.9M	2022-01-29
CELL	Cellframe	Ethereum	0.8915	0.889611	-0.21%	0.9037	+1.37%	0.0022	✓	1.52	107k	2022-01-29
IMX	Immutable	Ethereum	2.82	2.8137	-0.22%	2.83	+0.35%	0.0124	✓	1.54	2.2M	2022-01-29
XEM	NEM	native	0.0999	0.099669	-0.23%	0.1047	+4.80%	0.0369	✗	1.05	43k	2022-01-29
BAT	Basic Attention	Ethereum	0.86446	0.862442	-0.23%	0.84787	-1.92%	0.0375	✓	1.73	643k	2022-01-29
DKA	dKargo	Ethereum	0.08808	0.087856	-0.25%	0.08979	+1.94%	0.0076	✗	1.20	46k	2022-01-29
ORBS	Orbs	Ethereum	0.0647	0.064532	-0.26%	0.0653	+0.93%	0.0014	✓	1.12	21k	2022-01-29
XYM	Symbol	native	0.177	0.176538	-0.26%	0.1739	-1.75%	0.0230	✓	0.68	573k	2022-01-29
POKT	Pocket Network	Ethereum	1.2839	1.2803	-0.28%	1.2936	+0.76%	0.0015	✓	1.00	3.5M	2022-01-29
API3	Api3	Ethereum	3.75	3.7393	-0.29%	3.69	-1.60%	0.0159	✓	0.22	720k	2022-01-29
JUV	Juventus Fan Token	Solana	6.04	6.0221	-0.30%	6.08	+0.66%	0.0005	✓	0.85	529k	2022-01-29
ARPA	ARPA	Ethereum	0.0629	0.062709	-0.30%	0.0636	+1.11%	0.0028	✓	1.43	605k	2022-01-29
CVC	Civic	Ethereum	0.2523	0.251511	-0.31%	0.2671	+5.87%	0.0468	✗	1.13	532k	2022-01-29
VSYS	V.SYSTEMS	native	0.01255	0.012505	-0.36%	0.01347	+7.33%	0.0637	✗	0.90	20k	2022-01-29
CTK	Shentu	Osmosis	1.436	1.4307	-0.37%	1.364	-5.01%	0.0630	✓	1.29	3.6M	2022-01-29
NCT	PolySwarm	Ethereum	0.0541	0.053894	-0.38%	0.05525	+2.13%	0.0130	✗	1.00	5.9M	2022-01-29
POWR	Powerledger	Ethereum	0.5555	0.553312	-0.39%	0.5693	+2.48%	0.0146	✗	1.17	2.1M	2022-01-29
OG	OG Fan Token	Solana	3.294	3.281	-0.39%	3.258	-1.09%	0.0173	✓	0.87	944k	2022-01-29
FTT	FTX	Ethereum	40.01	39.8518	-0.40%	41.73	+4.30%	0.0317	✗	1.21	35.1M	2022-01-29
COTI	COTI	Ethereum	0.3094	0.308069	-0.43%	0.31	+0.19%	0.0122	✓	1.56	4.2M	2022-01-29
PEOPLE	ConstitutionDAO	Ethereum	0.0567	0.056439	-0.46%	0.0907	+59.96%	0.4486	✗	2.18	23.2M	2022-01-29
DUSK	DUSK	Ethereum	0.6272	0.623989	-0.51%	0.6022	-3.99%	0.0579	✓	1.89	50.8M	2022-01-29
DYDX	dYdX	Cosmos	5.923	5.8913	-0.54%	6.128	+3.46%	0.0277	✗	0.99	320k	2022-01-29
PRO	Propy	Ethereum	2.39	2.3771	-0.54%	2.31	-3.35%	0.0405	✓	1.00	3.6M	2022-01-29
KNC	Kyber Network Crystal	Ethereum	1.7954	1.7828	-0.70%	1.7284	-3.73%	0.0402	✓	0.77	2.8M	2022-01-29
ASTR	Astar	Ethereum	0.114	0.113011	-0.87%	0.12	+5.26%	0.0482	✗	1.00	149k	2022-01-29
METRONOME	METRONOME		3.0715	3.0412	-0.99%	3.0631	-0.27%	0.0032	✓	0.87	16k	2022-01-29
BFC	Bifrost	Ethereum	0.1835	0.181036	-1.34%	0.18677	+1.78%	0.0125	✓	1.58	21k	2022-01-29
NMR	Numeraire	Ethereum	27.6	27.1058	-1.79%	26.24	-4.93%	0.0418	✓	0.79	407k	2022-01-29

Δ columns are percentage price moves; alpha err and the hit column are in beta-adjusted log-return space, which is what the model actually predicts. “pending” means the horizon has not matured yet. Rows are capped for readability — add &limit=2000 to widen.