2022-01-21 · +30d

gru_s4 · in-sample — the model trained on this date · 141 tokens predicted

These numbers are in-sample. The model was trained on this date, so predicted-vs-actual agreement here is not evidence of skill.

+1d +7d +30d asset cohort only

rank IC

+0.0977

141 of 141 tokens assessed

long-short decile

+19.32%

realised beta-adjusted alpha

direction hit

68.1%

in alpha space · 57.4% on raw price

BTC over horizon

+5.30%

the unhedgeable market factor

Predicted vs actual (141 rows, sorted by pred)

token	name	chain	anchor px	pred px ▴	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d	vol 30d	target
DUSK	DUSK	Ethereum	0.6365	0.5832	-8.37%	0.3785	-40.53%	0.5253	✓	1.80	46.2M	2022-02-20
API3	Api3	Ethereum	4.65	4.3025	-7.47%	6.97	+49.89%	0.4602	✗	0.43	471k	2022-02-20
POKT	Pocket Network	Ethereum	1.5661	1.4515	-7.32%	0.95	-39.34%	0.4755	✓	1.00	4.2M	2022-02-20
GLMR	Moonbeam	Base	8.647	8.04	-7.02%	2.828	-67.30%	1.0965	✓	1.00	1.7M	2022-02-20
DYDX	dYdX	Cosmos	8.351	7.8139	-6.43%	5.697	-31.78%	0.3679	✓	1.01	301k	2022-02-20
POWR	Powerledger	Ethereum	0.5351	0.502832	-6.03%	0.5119	-4.34%	0.0475	✓	1.27	1.7M	2022-02-20
ATOM	Cosmos Hub	Cosmos	34.64	32.6679	-5.69%	26.09	-24.68%	0.2751	✓	0.97	104.1M	2022-02-20
KNC	Kyber Network Crystal	Ethereum	1.4321	1.3594	-5.07%	2.0176	+40.88%	0.3509	✗	0.85	1.4M	2022-02-20
METRONOME	METRONOME		3.2277	3.0733	-4.78%	2.1375	-33.78%	0.4073	✓	0.86	2,257	2022-02-20
YFI	yearn.finance	Ethereum	25,741.64	24,544.56	-4.65%	20,667.46	-19.71%	0.2147	✓	0.83	20.9M	2022-02-20
CWEB	Coinweb	Ethereum	0.061424	0.058669	-4.48%	0.025474	-58.53%	0.8859	✓	1.00	644k	2022-02-20
SUSHI	Sushi	Ethereum	4.96	4.7891	-3.44%	3.63	-26.81%	0.3450	✓	1.32	17.0M	2022-02-20
PORTO	FC Porto	Binance Smart Chain	3.11	3.0042	-3.40%	2.9539	-5.02%	0.0682	✓	0.99	2.2M	2022-02-20
LUNA	Terra	Terra 2	64.94	62.8939	-3.15%	49.33	-24.04%	0.3372	✓	1.83	7.7M	2022-02-20
MINA	Mina Protocol	native	2.9	2.8092	-3.13%	2.48	-14.48%	0.1827	✓	1.12	737k	2022-02-20
CRV	Curve DAO	Ethereum	3.31	3.2105	-3.01%	2.55	-22.96%	0.3070	✓	1.48	32.4M	2022-02-20
GTC	Gitcoin	Ethereum	7.97	7.7335	-2.97%	6.57	-17.57%	0.1818	✓	0.36	3.1M	2022-02-20
BFC	Bifrost	Ethereum	0.16704	0.162504	-2.72%	0.15607	-6.57%	0.1194	✓	1.53	6,849	2022-02-20
CELL	Cellframe	Ethereum	0.8913	0.867527	-2.67%	1.8141	+103.53%	0.6742	✗	1.23	108k	2022-02-20
BAND	Band	Ethereum	3.96	3.8583	-2.57%	4.38	+10.61%	0.0664	✗	1.17	2.4M	2022-02-20
LEO	LEO Token	Ethereum	3.5345	3.4514	-2.35%	5.735	+62.26%	0.5068	✗	0.02	371k	2022-02-20
CITY	Manchester City Fan Token	Solana	9.4	9.1847	-2.29%	9.77	+3.94%	0.0241	✗	0.73	800k	2022-02-20
BAT	Basic Attention	Ethereum	0.81011	0.79215	-2.22%	0.70618	-12.83%	0.2038	✓	1.72	848k	2022-02-20
ENJ	Enjin Coin	Ethereum	1.738	1.6995	-2.21%	1.532	-11.85%	0.1676	✓	1.24	1.9M	2022-02-20
ALGO	Algorand	Algorand	1.0303	1.0079	-2.17%	0.8455	-17.94%	0.2376	✓	1.20	32.1M	2022-02-20
IMX	Immutable	Ethereum	2.71	2.6543	-2.06%	1.82	-32.84%	0.4598	✓	1.60	2.2M	2022-02-20
LSK	Lisk	Ethereum	1.6672	1.6333	-2.03%	1.6203	-2.81%	0.0664	✓	1.13	95k	2022-02-20
PEOPLE	ConstitutionDAO	Ethereum	0.0417	0.040883	-1.96%	0.0531	+27.34%	0.2098	✗	1.00	24.3M	2022-02-20
SANTOS	Santos FC Fan Token	Binance Smart Chain	2.795	2.7407	-1.94%	2.5	-10.55%	0.1710	✓	1.53	1.1M	2022-02-20
HIVE	Hive	native	0.906	0.888874	-1.89%	0.9158	+1.08%	0.0453	✓	1.46	3.9M	2022-02-20
FTT	FTX	Ethereum	38.52	37.792	-1.89%	40.84	+6.02%	0.0174	✓	1.16	25.7M	2022-02-20
PSG	Paris Saint-Germain Fan Token	Solana	13.42	13.1715	-1.85%	14.71	+9.61%	0.0749	✗	0.69	813k	2022-02-20
VSYS	V.SYSTEMS	native	0.01394	0.013685	-1.83%	0.01266	-9.18%	0.1224	✓	0.86	21k	2022-02-20
ICP	Internet Computer	Ethereum	24.19	23.7578	-1.79%	18.7	-22.70%	0.3065	✓	1.30	34.9M	2022-02-20
CTK	Shentu	Osmosis	1.209	1.1875	-1.78%	1.063	-12.08%	0.1767	✓	1.28	4.0M	2022-02-20
DASH	Dash	Dash	105.73	103.8729	-1.76%	98.1	-7.22%	0.1197	✓	1.21	2.8M	2022-02-20
ASR	AS Roma Fan Token	Solana	3.168	3.1127	-1.75%	2.798	-11.68%	0.1458	✓	0.76	526k	2022-02-20
1INCH	1INCH	Ethereum	1.84	1.808	-1.74%	1.49	-19.02%	0.2477	✓	1.05	2.7M	2022-02-20
XLM	Stellar	Stellar	0.202862	0.199374	-1.72%	0.194647	-4.05%	0.0792	✓	1.07	24.9M	2022-02-20
BCHSV	Bitcoin Cash SV		95.68	94.0721	-1.68%	84.46	-11.73%	0.1564	✓	0.94	1.8M	2022-02-20
JUV	Juventus Fan Token	Solana	6.56	6.4524	-1.64%	6.14	-6.40%	0.0912	✓	0.80	616k	2022-02-20
XEM	NEM	native	0.097	0.095439	-1.61%	0.0988	+1.86%	0.0207	✓	1.07	41k	2022-02-20
UMA	UMA	Ethereum	6.6	6.4939	-1.61%	5.36	-18.79%	0.2457	✓	1.04	3.9M	2022-02-20
ADA	Cardano	Cardano	1.1211	1.1035	-1.57%	0.9319	-16.88%	0.2275	✓	1.13	104.1M	2022-02-20
LPT	Livepeer	Ethereum	24.86	24.4717	-1.56%	23.63	-4.95%	0.1235	✓	1.71	2.7M	2022-02-20
XMR	Monero	Monero	172.82	170.17	-1.53%	153.87	-10.97%	0.1512	✓	0.98	2.7M	2022-02-20
CTSI	Cartesi	Ethereum	0.4811	0.473844	-1.51%	0.3961	-17.67%	0.2518	✓	1.40	2.6M	2022-02-20
IOTA	IOTA	IOTA	0.857	0.844186	-1.50%	0.7859	-8.30%	0.1276	✓	1.09	22.7M	2022-02-20
FIL	Filecoin	Filecoin	21.98	21.6514	-1.49%	19.82	-9.83%	0.1489	✓	1.17	14.5M	2022-02-20
GT	Gate	Ethereum	6.243	6.15	-1.49%	6.2563	+0.21%	0.0297	✓	0.91	4.3M	2022-02-20
COTI	COTI	Ethereum	0.2921	0.287751	-1.49%	0.2213	-24.24%	0.3451	✓	1.60	4.6M	2022-02-20
LINK	Chainlink	Ethereum	17.44	17.1839	-1.47%	14.6	-16.28%	0.2262	✓	1.22	75.4M	2022-02-20
TWT	Trust Wallet	Binance Smart Chain	0.5619	0.554372	-1.34%	0.516	-8.17%	0.1389	✓	1.30	3.2M	2022-02-20
SUPER	SuperVerse	Ethereum	0.73	0.720297	-1.33%	0.78	+6.85%	0.0174	✓	1.88	1.3M	2022-02-20
SPELL	Spell	Ethereum	0.0092	0.009078	-1.33%	0.00465	-49.46%	0.7937	✓	2.41	23.2M	2022-02-20
TRB	Tellor Tributes	Ethereum	21.23	20.9623	-1.26%	18.79	-11.49%	0.1885	✓	1.53	944k	2022-02-20
BICO	Biconomy	Ethereum	2.45	2.4198	-1.23%	1.41	-42.45%	0.6133	✓	1.42	7.4M	2022-02-20
XTZ	Tezos	Tezos	3.3417	3.3014	-1.20%	3.2624	-2.37%	0.0811	✓	1.34	3.1M	2022-02-20
ZEC	Zcash	Zcash	102.35	101.1244	-1.20%	108.11	+5.63%	0.0017	✓	1.33	8.4M	2022-02-20
DOGE	Dogecoin	Dogecoin	0.142057	0.14038	-1.18%	0.136714	-3.76%	0.0818	✓	1.07	6.7M	2022-02-20
KCS	KuCoin	native	16.808	16.6125	-1.16%	18.962	+12.82%	0.0501	✗	1.59	10.7M	2022-02-20
ORBS	Orbs	Ethereum	0.0634	0.062666	-1.16%	0.0654	+3.15%	0.0151	✓	1.12	21k	2022-02-20
DODO	DODO	Ethereum	0.561	0.554651	-1.13%	0.471	-16.04%	0.2433	✓	1.55	8.0M	2022-02-20
CVC	Civic	Ethereum	0.2396	0.23694	-1.11%	0.2525	+5.38%	0.0066	✓	1.10	440k	2022-02-20
QTUM	Qtum	Qtum	6.1225	6.0583	-1.05%	6.2326	+1.80%	0.0454	✓	1.43	263k	2022-02-20
NMR	Numeraire	Ethereum	23.31	23.0709	-1.03%	27.93	+19.82%	0.1535	✗	0.73	342k	2022-02-20
OG	OG Fan Token	Solana	3.392	3.358	-1.00%	3.107	-8.40%	0.1214	✓	0.85	1.1M	2022-02-20
BNT	Bancor Network	Ethereum	2.46	2.4362	-0.97%	2.28	-7.32%	0.1190	✓	1.02	869k	2022-02-20
LAZIO	Lazio Fan Token	Binance Smart Chain	3.555	3.5211	-0.95%	3.02	-15.05%	0.2151	✓	1.19	3.9M	2022-02-20
UOS	Ultra	Ethereum	0.91734	0.908851	-0.93%	1.1176	+21.83%	0.1449	✗	1.20	2.4M	2022-02-20
ACM	AC Milan Fan Token	Solana	4.12	4.0828	-0.90%	4.211	+2.21%	0.0076	✓	0.75	445k	2022-02-20
AVAX	Avalanche	Avalanche	66.07	65.4762	-0.90%	77.39	+17.13%	0.1006	✗	1.29	87.3M	2022-02-20
KSM	Kusama	Hydration	213.87	212.0148	-0.87%	138.87	-35.07%	0.4841	✓	1.18	1.3M	2022-02-20
ETC	Ethereum Classic	native	25.95	25.7268	-0.86%	27.23	+4.93%	0.0006	✓	1.09	3.3M	2022-02-20
OGN	Origin Token	Ethereum	0.352	0.348979	-0.86%	0.3	-14.77%	0.2232	✓	1.39	1.8M	2022-02-20
XEC	eCash	native	0.00007968	0.000079001	-0.85%	0.00007437	-6.66%	0.1139	✓	1.04	6.5M	2022-02-20
JASMY	JasmyCoin	Ethereum	0.05552	0.055059	-0.83%	0.02116	-61.89%	1.0251	✓	1.33	12.0M	2022-02-20
SC	Siacoin	native	0.01044	0.010353	-0.83%	0.00912	-12.64%	0.1819	✓	1.07	641k	2022-02-20
ZEN	Horizen	Base	38.94	38.621	-0.82%	34.75	-10.76%	0.1857	✓	1.55	620k	2022-02-20
OMG	OMG Network	Ethereum	4.7186	4.6805	-0.81%	4.0929	-13.26%	0.1952	✓	1.18	443k	2022-02-20
XPR	XPR Network	Ethereum	0.01111	0.011022	-0.79%	0.01078	-2.97%	0.0868	✓	1.25	2.2M	2022-02-20
MASK	Mask Network	Ethereum	6.49	6.441	-0.76%	4.65	-28.35%	0.3715	✓	0.88	1.0M	2022-02-20
DEXE	DeXe	Ethereum	6.72	6.6743	-0.68%	7.17	+6.70%	0.0622	✗	0.18	1.2M	2022-02-20
GITCOIN	GITCOIN		7.826	7.7739	-0.67%	6.591	-15.78%	0.1815	✓	0.32	38k	2022-02-20
ETH	Ethereum	Ethereum	2,569.01	2,552.59	-0.64%	2,622.47	+2.08%	0.0306	✓	1.12	502.4M	2022-02-20
DKA	dKargo	Ethereum	0.08324	0.082711	-0.63%	0.08575	+3.02%	0.0249	✓	1.18	38k	2022-02-20
ATM	Atletico Madrid Fan Token	Solana	5.64	5.6056	-0.61%	5.01	-11.17%	0.1471	✓	0.67	494k	2022-02-20
MANA	Decentraland	Ethereum	2.2219	2.2084	-0.61%	2.6921	+21.16%	0.1393	✗	1.14	4.3M	2022-02-20
STORJ	Storj	Ethereum	1.1848	1.1777	-0.60%	0.98512	-16.85%	0.2295	✓	0.99	402k	2022-02-20
RAD	Radworks	Ethereum	5.68	5.6462	-0.60%	7.05	+24.12%	0.1705	✗	1.00	1.0M	2022-02-20
MTL	Metal DAO	Metal L2	1.445	1.4366	-0.58%	1.454	+0.62%	0.0495	✓	1.19	1.8M	2022-02-20
SHIB	Shiba Inu	Ethereum	0.00002226	0.000022133	-0.57%	0.00002547	+14.42%	0.0683	✗	1.40	1.7M	2022-02-20
COMP	Compound	Ethereum	139.37	138.5955	-0.56%	116.98	-16.07%	0.2323	✓	1.21	88k	2022-02-20
TRAC	OriginTrail	Ethereum	0.6747	0.670972	-0.55%	0.5079	-24.72%	0.3570	✓	1.52	1.4M	2022-02-20
CBK	Cobak	Ethereum	2.197	2.1878	-0.42%	2.067	-5.92%	0.1119	✓	1.07	24k	2022-02-20
DNT	district0x	Ethereum	0.0834	0.083066	-0.40%	0.0729	-12.59%	0.1923	✓	1.20	269k	2022-02-20
EWT	Energy Web Token	Ethereum	5.957	5.9356	-0.36%	5.516	-7.40%	0.1141	✓	0.79	163k	2022-02-20
AMP	Amp	Ethereum	0.0303	0.030215	-0.28%	0.02715	-10.40%	0.1581	✓	0.99	8.3M	2022-02-20
RIF	Rootstock Infrastructure Framework	Ethereum	0.1474	0.146996	-0.27%	0.1362	-7.60%	0.1248	✓	0.94	362k	2022-02-20
PHA	PHALA	Ethereum	0.271	0.270272	-0.27%	0.24	-11.44%	0.1657	✓	0.91	60k	2022-02-20
SUN	Sun Token	Tron	0.016171	0.01613	-0.25%	0.01318	-18.50%	0.2642	✓	1.20	2.7M	2022-02-20
GODS	Gods Unchained	Ethereum	2.29	2.2843	-0.25%	1.44	-37.12%	0.5348	✓	1.42	2.7M	2022-02-20
AXS	Axie Infinity	Ethereum	58.39	58.2483	-0.24%	52.1	-10.77%	0.1720	✓	1.17	6.3M	2022-02-20
BAR	FC Barcelona Fan Token	Solana	6.31	6.2958	-0.22%	5.7	-9.67%	0.1372	✓	0.73	652k	2022-02-20
AUCTION	Bounce	Ethereum	15.55	15.5182	-0.20%	12.98	-16.53%	0.2342	✓	1.08	841k	2022-02-20
ARPA	ARPA	Ethereum	0.0619	0.061775	-0.20%	0.0744	+20.19%	0.1114	✗	1.44	684k	2022-02-20
OXT	Orchid Protocol	Ethereum	0.2523	0.251968	-0.13%	0.2401	-4.84%	0.1131	✓	1.26	1.9M	2022-02-20
ZRX	0x Protocol	Ethereum	0.55846	0.557987	-0.08%	0.570834	+2.22%	0.0393	✓	1.20	2.3M	2022-02-20
QNT	Quant	Ethereum	114.44	114.3916	-0.04%	107.71	-5.88%	0.1109	✓	0.98	6.9M	2022-02-20
BTC	Bitcoin	Bitcoin	36,456.94	36,445.30	-0.03%	38,389.03	+5.30%	0.0003	✓	1.00	648.0M	2022-02-20
BEL	Bella Protocol	Ethereum	0.984	0.984868	+0.09%	0.796	-19.11%	0.2842	✗	1.38	2.3M	2022-02-20
SKL	SKALE	Ethereum	0.1206	0.120715	+0.10%	0.1343	+11.36%	0.0373	✓	1.34	4.3M	2022-02-20
XYM	Symbol	native	0.1639	0.164074	+0.11%	0.154	-6.04%	0.0987	✗	0.68	536k	2022-02-20
CERE	Cere Network	Ethereum	0.0363	0.036348	+0.13%	0.028	-22.87%	0.3362	✗	1.46	1.1M	2022-02-20
CHZ	Chiliz	Ethereum	0.198	0.19827	+0.14%	0.1863	-5.91%	0.1339	✗	1.39	4.3M	2022-02-20
DOT	Polkadot	Polkadot	19.67	19.71	+0.20%	16.92	-13.98%	0.2238	✗	1.38	58.5M	2022-02-20
TRX	TRON	Tron	0.061109	0.061237	+0.21%	0.06201	+1.47%	0.0366	✗	0.95	486k	2022-02-20
SNX	Synthetix	Ethereum	4.17	4.1798	+0.24%	4.06	-2.64%	0.0914	✗	1.21	3.2M	2022-02-20
MED	Medibloc	Osmosis	0.03977	0.039864	+0.24%	0.03914	-1.58%	0.0759	✗	1.11	25k	2022-02-20
XYO	XYO Network	Ethereum	0.022082	0.022146	+0.29%	0.019255	-12.80%	0.1968	✗	1.10	3.7M	2022-02-20
MOVR	Moonriver	Base	95	95.3127	+0.33%	74.3242	-21.76%	0.3139	✗	1.26	489k	2022-02-20
AGLD	Adventure Gold	Ethereum	0.97	0.973565	+0.37%	0.9	-7.22%	0.1626	✗	1.63	569k	2022-02-20
GRT	The Graph	Ethereum	0.4366	0.438757	+0.49%	0.3917	-10.28%	0.1810	✗	1.31	10.8M	2022-02-20
AAVE	Aave	Ethereum	171.09	172.0996	+0.59%	137.55	-19.60%	0.2876	✗	1.23	17.6M	2022-02-20
WBTC	Wrapped Bitcoin	Ethereum	36,607.80	36,823.82	+0.59%	38,642.80	+5.56%	0.0035	✓	1.00	18k	2022-02-20
LCX	LCX	Ethereum	0.0939	0.09464	+0.79%	0.091	-3.09%	0.1087	✗	1.35	2.0M	2022-02-20
ANKR	Ankr Network	Ethereum	0.07197	0.072577	+0.84%	0.06754	-6.16%	0.1129	✗	0.79	56k	2022-02-20
UNI	Uniswap	Ethereum	12.63	12.7368	+0.85%	9.36	-25.89%	0.3756	✗	1.31	12.7M	2022-02-20
NAKA	Nakamoto Games	Polygon	0.5186	0.523196	+0.89%	0.4602	-11.26%	0.1915	✗	1.22	2.4M	2022-02-20
RLC	iExec RLC	Ethereum	2	2.0208	+1.04%	1.73	-13.50%	0.2251	✗	1.35	3.1M	2022-02-20
SOL	Solana	Solana	112.32	113.5672	+1.11%	90.78	-19.18%	0.2840	✗	1.16	142.2M	2022-02-20
TKO	Tokocrypto	Binance Smart Chain	0.764	0.77321	+1.21%	0.7	-8.38%	0.1559	✗	1.09	2.0M	2022-02-20
ENS	Ethereum Name Service	Ethereum	17.88	18.1116	+1.30%	15.23	-14.82%	0.2669	✗	1.81	4.1M	2022-02-20
LTC	Litecoin	Litecoin	114.51	116.2571	+1.53%	110.69	-3.34%	0.1178	✗	1.33	30.5M	2022-02-20
ACH	Alchemy Pay	Ethereum	0.041641	0.042283	+1.54%	0.051219	+23.00%	0.1255	✓	1.28	9.3M	2022-02-20
ASM	Assemble AI	Ethereum	0.05388	0.054736	+1.59%	0.0487	-9.61%	0.1942	✗	1.50	2.1M	2022-02-20
LRC	Loopring	Ethereum	0.8678	0.883292	+1.79%	0.8239	-5.06%	0.1709	✗	1.96	1.1M	2022-02-20
NANO	nanopay	Base	2.3265	2.3712	+1.93%	1.9689	-15.37%	0.2493	✗	1.23	699k	2022-02-20
XVG	Verge	native	0.01002	0.010259	+2.39%	0.00962	-3.99%	0.1333	✗	1.34	1.8M	2022-02-20
BCH	Bitcoin Cash	Bitcoin Cash	315.04	323.2225	+2.60%	302.87	-3.86%	0.1188	✗	1.04	7.0M	2022-02-20
XVS	Venus	Ethereum	9.94	10.2888	+3.51%	8.95	-9.96%	0.1996	✗	1.17	3.0M	2022-02-20

Δ columns are percentage price moves; alpha err and the hit column are in beta-adjusted log-return space, which is what the model actually predicts. “pending” means the horizon has not matured yet. Rows are capped for readability — add &limit=2000 to widen.