2022-01-20 · +1d

gru_s4 · in-sample — the model trained on this date · 140 tokens predicted

These numbers are in-sample. The model was trained on this date, so predicted-vs-actual agreement here is not evidence of skill.

+1d +7d +30d asset cohort only

rank IC

-0.1318

140 of 140 tokens assessed

long-short decile

-5.23%

realised beta-adjusted alpha

direction hit

61.4%

in alpha space · 81.4% on raw price

BTC over horizon

-10.36%

the unhedgeable market factor

Predicted vs actual (140 rows, sorted by pred)

token	name	chain	anchor px	pred px ▾	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d	vol 30d	target
NAKA	Nakamoto Games	Polygon	0.6721	0.674889	+0.41%	0.5186	-22.84%	0.1455	✗	1.08	2.5M	2022-01-21
PEOPLE	ConstitutionDAO	Ethereum	0.0529	0.053093	+0.37%	0.0417	-21.17%	0.1322	✗	1.00	23.9M	2022-01-21
LRC	Loopring	Ethereum	1.0653	1.0691	+0.35%	0.8678	-18.54%	0.0041	✓	1.94	1.2M	2022-01-21
SPELL	Spell	Ethereum	0.01207	0.012098	+0.23%	0.0092	-23.78%	0.0131	✗	2.38	23.2M	2022-01-21
LCX	LCX	Ethereum	0.1141	0.114326	+0.20%	0.0939	-17.70%	0.0554	✗	1.29	2.0M	2022-01-21
SUSHI	Sushi	Ethereum	5.81	5.8197	+0.17%	4.96	-14.63%	0.0175	✗	1.30	17.0M	2022-01-21
AAVE	Aave	Ethereum	198.37	198.5451	+0.09%	171.09	-13.75%	0.0157	✗	1.22	17.6M	2022-01-21
AGLD	Adventure Gold	Ethereum	1.11	1.111	+0.09%	0.97	-12.61%	0.0479	✓	1.68	556k	2022-01-21
DOT	Polkadot	Polkadot	23	23.02	+0.09%	19.67	-14.48%	0.0074	✗	1.37	58.5M	2022-01-21
SOL	Solana	Solana	127.52	127.6159	+0.08%	112.32	-11.92%	0.0006	✓	1.16	142.2M	2022-01-21
TKO	Tokocrypto	Binance Smart Chain	0.939	0.939665	+0.07%	0.764	-18.64%	0.0985	✗	0.99	2.0M	2022-01-21
XVS	Venus	Ethereum	11.36	11.367	+0.06%	9.94	-12.50%	0.0065	✗	1.17	2.9M	2022-01-21
AVAX	Avalanche	Avalanche	79.35	79.3954	+0.06%	66.07	-16.74%	0.0503	✗	1.22	87.3M	2022-01-21
CERE	Cere Network	Ethereum	0.0452	0.045222	+0.05%	0.0363	-19.69%	0.0693	✗	1.38	1.2M	2022-01-21
ARPA	ARPA	Ethereum	0.0736	0.073626	+0.04%	0.0619	-15.90%	0.0185	✗	1.42	826k	2022-01-21
TRAC	OriginTrail	Ethereum	0.8682	0.868466	+0.03%	0.6747	-22.29%	0.0985	✗	1.41	1.4M	2022-01-21
UNI	Uniswap	Ethereum	14.49	14.4942	+0.03%	12.63	-12.84%	0.0070	✓	1.32	12.4M	2022-01-21
ENS	Ethereum Name Service	Ethereum	21.12	21.1253	+0.03%	17.88	-15.34%	0.0376	✓	1.87	4.1M	2022-01-21
RAD	Radworks	Ethereum	6.89	6.8908	+0.01%	5.68	-17.56%	0.0962	✗	0.89	1.0M	2022-01-21
BCH	Bitcoin Cash	Bitcoin Cash	357.74	357.7818	+0.01%	315.04	-11.94%	0.0150	✗	1.03	6.6M	2022-01-21
CRV	Curve DAO	Ethereum	3.97	3.9704	+0.01%	3.31	-16.62%	0.0217	✗	1.46	32.4M	2022-01-21
XYO	XYO Network	Ethereum	0.026039	0.026041	+0.01%	0.022082	-15.20%	0.0509	✗	1.04	3.9M	2022-01-21
MOVR	Moonriver	Base	119.9355	119.9395	+0.00%	95	-20.79%	0.1061	✗	1.16	489k	2022-01-21
ASM	Assemble AI	Ethereum	0.06885	0.068852	+0.00%	0.05388	-21.74%	0.0951	✗	1.37	2.1M	2022-01-21
BEL	Bella Protocol	Ethereum	1.143	1.143	-0.00%	0.984	-13.91%	0.0024	✗	1.39	2.3M	2022-01-21
FIL	Filecoin	Filecoin	26.19	26.1898	-0.00%	21.98	-16.07%	0.0535	✓	1.11	14.5M	2022-01-21
AUCTION	Bounce	Ethereum	18.34	18.3393	-0.00%	15.55	-15.21%	0.0545	✓	1.01	807k	2022-01-21
CBK	Cobak	Ethereum	2.539	2.5388	-0.01%	2.197	-13.47%	0.0345	✓	1.01	24k	2022-01-21
AXS	Axie Infinity	Ethereum	69.09	69.0849	-0.01%	58.39	-15.49%	0.0466	✓	1.11	6.3M	2022-01-21
XVG	Verge	native	0.01234	0.012339	-0.01%	0.01002	-18.80%	0.0708	✓	1.26	1.8M	2022-01-21
RIF	Rootstock Infrastructure Framework	Ethereum	0.1666	0.166583	-0.01%	0.1474	-11.52%	0.0223	✓	0.91	362k	2022-01-21
XTZ	Tezos	Tezos	3.715	3.7143	-0.02%	3.3417	-10.05%	0.0466	✗	1.39	3.1M	2022-01-21
COMP	Compound	Ethereum	162.17	162.1389	-0.02%	139.37	-14.06%	0.0214	✓	1.19	95k	2022-01-21
GITCOIN	GITCOIN		9.432	9.4302	-0.02%	7.826	-17.03%	0.1735	✓	0.12	38k	2022-01-21
UOS	Ultra	Ethereum	1.1313	1.1311	-0.02%	0.91734	-18.91%	0.0920	✓	1.07	2.4M	2022-01-21
RLC	iExec RLC	Ethereum	2.35	2.3494	-0.02%	2	-14.89%	0.0153	✓	1.33	3.1M	2022-01-21
GODS	Gods Unchained	Ethereum	2.79	2.7893	-0.02%	2.29	-17.92%	0.0554	✓	1.30	2.7M	2022-01-21
ZRX	0x Protocol	Ethereum	0.655547	0.655382	-0.03%	0.55846	-14.81%	0.0328	✓	1.16	2.3M	2022-01-21
EWT	Energy Web Token	Ethereum	6.92	6.9181	-0.03%	5.957	-13.92%	0.0721	✓	0.71	163k	2022-01-21
CHZ	Chiliz	Ethereum	0.2346	0.234519	-0.03%	0.198	-15.60%	0.0206	✓	1.36	4.0M	2022-01-21
MTL	Metal DAO	Metal L2	1.679	1.6784	-0.04%	1.445	-13.94%	0.0215	✓	1.17	1.8M	2022-01-21
SHIB	Shiba Inu	Ethereum	0.00002648	0.00002647	-0.04%	0.00002226	-15.94%	0.0254	✓	1.35	1.7M	2022-01-21
1INCH	1INCH	Ethereum	2.03	2.0292	-0.04%	1.84	-9.36%	0.0196	✗	1.07	2.7M	2022-01-21
LTC	Litecoin	Litecoin	129.8	129.7467	-0.04%	114.51	-11.78%	0.0235	✗	1.36	30.5M	2022-01-21
OMG	OMG Network	Ethereum	5.2113	5.2091	-0.04%	4.7186	-9.45%	0.0354	✗	1.23	443k	2022-01-21
DEXE	DeXe	Ethereum	7.97	7.9665	-0.04%	6.72	-15.68%	0.1695	✓	0.01	1.2M	2022-01-21
BCHSV	Bitcoin Cash SV		104.32	104.2736	-0.04%	95.68	-8.28%	0.0195	✗	0.96	1.8M	2022-01-21
SNX	Synthetix	Ethereum	4.78	4.7778	-0.05%	4.17	-12.76%	0.0040	✓	1.21	3.2M	2022-01-21
ACH	Alchemy Pay	Ethereum	0.050637	0.050609	-0.06%	0.041641	-17.77%	0.0633	✓	1.20	8.4M	2022-01-21
QNT	Quant	Ethereum	132.32	132.2452	-0.06%	114.44	-13.51%	0.0413	✓	0.94	6.7M	2022-01-21
CTK	Shentu	Osmosis	1.272	1.2713	-0.06%	1.209	-4.95%	0.1016	✗	1.39	4.0M	2022-01-21
ALGO	Algorand	Algorand	1.1614	1.1607	-0.06%	1.0303	-11.29%	0.0137	✗	1.22	30.5M	2022-01-21
OGN	Origin Token	Ethereum	0.428	0.427739	-0.06%	0.352	-17.76%	0.0487	✓	1.34	1.8M	2022-01-21
BTC	Bitcoin	Bitcoin	40,670.97	40,644.94	-0.06%	36,456.94	-10.36%	0.0006	✓	1.00	636.6M	2022-01-21
XEC	eCash	native	0.00009053	0.00009047	-0.07%	0.00007968	-11.98%	0.0152	✓	1.02	6.5M	2022-01-21
BAR	FC Barcelona Fan Token	Solana	7.38	7.375	-0.07%	6.31	-14.50%	0.0858	✓	0.64	652k	2022-01-21
TRX	TRON	Tron	0.067694	0.067647	-0.07%	0.061109	-9.73%	0.0026	✗	0.95	486k	2022-01-21
HIVE	Hive	native	1.0699	1.0691	-0.07%	0.906	-15.32%	0.0090	✓	1.43	3.7M	2022-01-21
STORJ	Storj	Ethereum	1.3945	1.3936	-0.07%	1.1848	-15.04%	0.0630	✓	0.91	402k	2022-01-21
OXT	Orchid Protocol	Ethereum	0.2832	0.282998	-0.07%	0.2523	-10.91%	0.0262	✗	1.29	1.9M	2022-01-21
ICP	Internet Computer	Ethereum	24.98	24.9604	-0.08%	24.19	-3.16%	0.1262	✗	1.44	34.3M	2022-01-21
MASK	Mask Network	Ethereum	7.96	7.9537	-0.08%	6.49	-18.47%	0.1223	✓	0.74	1.0M	2022-01-21
KSM	Kusama	Hydration	239.61	239.421	-0.08%	213.87	-10.74%	0.0186	✗	1.20	1.3M	2022-01-21
GRT	The Graph	Ethereum	0.5001	0.499703	-0.08%	0.4366	-12.70%	0.0085	✗	1.31	10.8M	2022-01-21
AMP	Amp	Ethereum	0.03533	0.035301	-0.08%	0.0303	-14.24%	0.0511	✓	0.93	8.3M	2022-01-21
LINK	Chainlink	Ethereum	20.18	20.1631	-0.08%	17.44	-13.58%	0.0114	✓	1.22	73.6M	2022-01-21
XYM	Symbol	native	0.1782	0.178041	-0.09%	0.1639	-8.02%	0.0075	✓	0.69	573k	2022-01-21
ATM	Atletico Madrid Fan Token	Solana	6.14	6.1344	-0.09%	5.64	-8.14%	0.0112	✓	0.67	505k	2022-01-21
LSK	Lisk	Ethereum	1.8707	1.8689	-0.10%	1.6672	-10.88%	0.0109	✗	1.14	89k	2022-01-21
ETH	Ethereum	Ethereum	3,000.94	2,998.02	-0.10%	2,569.01	-14.39%	0.0366	✓	1.08	485.8M	2022-01-21
OG	OG Fan Token	Solana	3.861	3.8572	-0.10%	3.392	-12.15%	0.0409	✓	0.80	1.1M	2022-01-21
XPR	XPR Network	Ethereum	0.01227	0.012258	-0.10%	0.01111	-9.45%	0.0463	✗	1.32	2.1M	2022-01-21
DKA	dKargo	Ethereum	0.0964	0.096298	-0.11%	0.08324	-13.65%	0.0191	✓	1.16	34k	2022-01-21
MED	Medibloc	Osmosis	0.04537	0.045321	-0.11%	0.03977	-12.34%	0.0103	✓	1.10	24k	2022-01-21
ZEN	Horizen	Base	47.6	47.547	-0.11%	38.94	-18.19%	0.0345	✓	1.51	620k	2022-01-21
IOTA	IOTA	IOTA	1.0173	1.0162	-0.11%	0.857	-15.76%	0.0599	✓	1.01	22.7M	2022-01-21
TRB	Tellor Tributes	Ethereum	24.39	24.3621	-0.11%	21.23	-12.96%	0.0334	✗	1.56	1.0M	2022-01-21
XMR	Monero	Monero	188.73	188.5083	-0.12%	172.82	-8.43%	0.0225	✗	1.00	2.7M	2022-01-21
QTUM	Qtum	Qtum	7.057	7.0486	-0.12%	6.1225	-13.24%	0.0177	✗	1.45	251k	2022-01-21
GTC	Gitcoin	Ethereum	9.52	9.5076	-0.13%	7.97	-16.28%	0.1567	✓	0.18	3.1M	2022-01-21
DASH	Dash	Dash	121.15	120.9899	-0.13%	105.73	-12.73%	0.0030	✓	1.20	2.8M	2022-01-21
ANKR	Ankr Network	Ethereum	0.08157	0.081461	-0.13%	0.07197	-11.77%	0.0428	✓	0.74	56k	2022-01-21
VSYS	V.SYSTEMS	native	0.01551	0.015489	-0.13%	0.01394	-10.12%	0.0157	✓	0.82	21k	2022-01-21
NMR	Numeraire	Ethereum	25.43	25.3951	-0.14%	23.31	-8.34%	0.0067	✓	0.72	342k	2022-01-21
ZEC	Zcash	Zcash	118.84	118.6763	-0.14%	102.35	-13.88%	0.0030	✓	1.33	8.4M	2022-01-21
SUN	Sun Token	Tron	0.018378	0.018353	-0.14%	0.016171	-12.01%	0.0073	✗	1.22	2.7M	2022-01-21
MANA	Decentraland	Ethereum	2.6385	2.6347	-0.14%	2.2219	-15.79%	0.0559	✓	1.05	4.3M	2022-01-21
DOGE	Dogecoin	Dogecoin	0.155509	0.155275	-0.15%	0.142057	-8.65%	0.0323	✗	1.11	6.5M	2022-01-21
ETC	Ethereum Classic	native	29.37	29.3258	-0.15%	25.95	-11.64%	0.0033	✓	1.09	3.3M	2022-01-21
LEO	LEO Token	Ethereum	3.7088	3.7032	-0.15%	3.5345	-4.70%	0.0522	✓	-0.05	371k	2022-01-21
LAZIO	Lazio Fan Token	Binance Smart Chain	3.9838	3.9777	-0.15%	3.555	-10.76%	0.0169	✗	1.18	3.9M	2022-01-21
BAT	Basic Attention	Ethereum	0.90658	0.905178	-0.15%	0.81011	-10.64%	0.0864	✗	1.80	866k	2022-01-21
IMX	Immutable	Ethereum	3.36	3.3546	-0.16%	2.71	-19.35%	0.0529	✓	1.47	2.2M	2022-01-21
SC	Siacoin	native	0.01217	0.01215	-0.16%	0.01044	-14.22%	0.0405	✓	1.02	641k	2022-01-21
TWT	Trust Wallet	Binance Smart Chain	0.6442	0.643133	-0.17%	0.5619	-12.78%	0.0073	✗	1.30	3.2M	2022-01-21
SUPER	SuperVerse	Ethereum	0.89	0.888523	-0.17%	0.73	-17.98%	0.0128	✗	1.91	1.3M	2022-01-21
LPT	Livepeer	Ethereum	30.25	30.1993	-0.17%	24.86	-17.82%	0.0107	✓	1.68	2.7M	2022-01-21
SKL	SKALE	Ethereum	0.1484	0.148143	-0.17%	0.1206	-18.73%	0.0673	✓	1.27	4.2M	2022-01-21
BNT	Bancor Network	Ethereum	2.8	2.7951	-0.18%	2.46	-12.14%	0.0184	✓	1.00	855k	2022-01-21
UMA	UMA	Ethereum	7.75	7.7362	-0.18%	6.6	-14.84%	0.0518	✓	0.98	3.9M	2022-01-21
KCS	KuCoin	native	19.429	19.3943	-0.18%	16.808	-13.49%	0.0346	✗	1.62	10.7M	2022-01-21
BICO	Biconomy	Ethereum	3.06	3.0545	-0.18%	2.45	-19.93%	0.0782	✓	1.30	7.8M	2022-01-21
XLM	Stellar	Stellar	0.231498	0.231077	-0.18%	0.202862	-12.37%	0.0152	✓	1.05	24.4M	2022-01-21
PHA	PHALA	Ethereum	0.328	0.327393	-0.19%	0.271	-17.38%	0.1018	✓	0.80	51k	2022-01-21
DODO	DODO	Ethereum	0.682	0.680721	-0.19%	0.561	-17.74%	0.0281	✓	1.51	8.0M	2022-01-21
XEM	NEM	native	0.1095	0.109288	-0.19%	0.097	-11.42%	0.0026	✓	1.07	41k	2022-01-21
CVC	Civic	Ethereum	0.2825	0.28193	-0.20%	0.2396	-15.19%	0.0487	✓	1.04	397k	2022-01-21
GT	Gate	Ethereum	7.0322	7.0173	-0.21%	6.243	-11.22%	0.0225	✓	0.86	4.3M	2022-01-21
PSG	Paris Saint-Germain Fan Token	Solana	14.59	14.5582	-0.22%	13.42	-8.02%	0.0069	✓	0.68	813k	2022-01-21
ACM	AC Milan Fan Token	Solana	4.731	4.7205	-0.22%	4.12	-12.91%	0.0620	✓	0.68	445k	2022-01-21
BAND	Band	Ethereum	4.68	4.6693	-0.23%	3.96	-15.38%	0.0417	✓	1.13	2.3M	2022-01-21
CTSI	Cartesi	Ethereum	0.5606	0.559314	-0.23%	0.4811	-14.18%	0.0015	✓	1.39	2.6M	2022-01-21
CITY	Manchester City Fan Token	Solana	10.09	10.0665	-0.23%	9.4	-6.84%	0.0132	✗	0.75	800k	2022-01-21
NANO	nanopay	Base	2.8203	2.8135	-0.24%	2.3265	-17.51%	0.0637	✓	1.16	665k	2022-01-21
JASMY	JasmyCoin	Ethereum	0.06785	0.067685	-0.24%	0.05552	-18.17%	0.0600	✓	1.26	12.0M	2022-01-21
WBTC	Wrapped Bitcoin	Ethereum	41,418.10	41,312.25	-0.26%	36,607.80	-11.61%	0.0134	✓	0.98	16k	2022-01-21
ORBS	Orbs	Ethereum	0.0723	0.072108	-0.27%	0.0634	-12.31%	0.0075	✓	1.11	21k	2022-01-21
SANTOS	Santos FC Fan Token	Binance Smart Chain	3.095	3.0864	-0.28%	2.795	-9.69%	0.0896	✗	1.73	1.1M	2022-01-21
PORTO	FC Porto	Binance Smart Chain	3.1598	3.151	-0.28%	3.11	-1.58%	0.1144	✗	1.17	2.1M	2022-01-21
ENJ	Enjin Coin	Ethereum	2.111	2.1048	-0.30%	1.738	-17.67%	0.0659	✓	1.15	1.9M	2022-01-21
YFI	yearn.finance	Ethereum	31,414.30	31,310.49	-0.33%	25,741.64	-18.06%	0.1203	✓	0.69	21.5M	2022-01-21
CWEB	Coinweb	Ethereum	0.07094	0.070703	-0.33%	0.061424	-13.41%	0.0313	✓	1.00	682k	2022-01-21
ADA	Cardano	Cardano	1.2589	1.2546	-0.34%	1.1211	-10.95%	0.0124	✗	1.14	100.6M	2022-01-21
JUV	Juventus Fan Token	Solana	7.4	7.3736	-0.36%	6.56	-11.35%	0.0330	✓	0.77	638k	2022-01-21
MINA	Mina Protocol	native	3.35	3.3378	-0.36%	2.9	-13.43%	0.0213	✓	1.09	752k	2022-01-21
LUNA	Terra	Terra 2	77.41	77.1132	-0.38%	64.94	-16.11%	0.0340	✗	1.88	7.7M	2022-01-21
DNT	district0x	Ethereum	0.1002	0.099772	-0.43%	0.0834	-16.77%	0.0565	✓	1.12	244k	2022-01-21
COTI	COTI	Ethereum	0.3693	0.367658	-0.44%	0.2921	-20.90%	0.0650	✓	1.51	4.3M	2022-01-21
ASR	AS Roma Fan Token	Solana	3.583	3.5657	-0.48%	3.168	-11.58%	0.0403	✓	0.71	523k	2022-01-21
CELL	Cellframe	Ethereum	1.0839	1.0783	-0.52%	0.8913	-17.77%	0.0796	✓	1.01	108k	2022-01-21
GLMR	Moonbeam	Base	9.77	9.7163	-0.55%	8.647	-11.49%	0.0072	✓	1.00	1.9M	2022-01-21
FTT	FTX	Ethereum	45.17	44.9173	-0.56%	38.52	-14.72%	0.0311	✓	1.12	24.7M	2022-01-21
POWR	Powerledger	Ethereum	0.5776	0.574152	-0.60%	0.5351	-7.36%	0.0803	✗	1.38	1.7M	2022-01-21
BFC	Bifrost	Ethereum	0.18914	0.18801	-0.60%	0.16704	-11.68%	0.0545	✗	1.58	6,611	2022-01-21
ATOM	Cosmos Hub	Cosmos	38.97	38.7365	-0.60%	34.64	-11.11%	0.0071	✓	0.96	104.1M	2022-01-21
DYDX	dYdX	Cosmos	7.481	7.4338	-0.63%	8.351	+11.63%	0.2572	✗	1.29	301k	2022-01-21
API3	Api3	Ethereum	4.19	4.1632	-0.64%	4.65	+10.98%	0.2186	✗	0.99	471k	2022-01-21
DUSK	DUSK	Ethereum	0.757	0.751752	-0.69%	0.6365	-15.92%	0.0301	✗	1.80	46.2M	2022-01-21
KNC	Kyber Network Crystal	Ethereum	1.5815	1.5657	-1.00%	1.4321	-9.45%	0.0025	✓	0.84	1.3M	2022-01-21
METRONOME	METRONOME		3.8114	3.7642	-1.24%	3.2277	-15.31%	0.0707	✓	0.76	2,257	2022-01-21

Δ columns are percentage price moves; alpha err and the hit column are in beta-adjusted log-return space, which is what the model actually predicts. “pending” means the horizon has not matured yet. Rows are capped for readability — add &limit=2000 to widen.