2022-01-03 · +30d

gru_s4 · in-sample — the model trained on this date · 138 tokens predicted

These numbers are in-sample. The model was trained on this date, so predicted-vs-actual agreement here is not evidence of skill.

+1d +7d +30d asset cohort only

rank IC

+0.2573

138 of 138 tokens assessed

long-short decile

+17.67%

realised beta-adjusted alpha

direction hit

68.8%

in alpha space · 74.6% on raw price

BTC over horizon

-20.53%

the unhedgeable market factor

Predicted vs actual (138 rows, sorted by pred)

token	name	chain	anchor px	pred px ▾	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d	vol 30d	target
ATM	Atletico Madrid Fan Token	Solana	7.21	7.374	+2.28%	5.04	-30.10%	0.2340	✗	0.64	861k	2022-02-02
1INCH	1INCH	Ethereum	2.56	2.6109	+1.99%	1.63	-36.33%	0.2279	✗	1.06	4.0M	2022-02-02
COMP	Compound	Ethereum	222.2	226.4722	+1.92%	121.22	-45.45%	0.3618	✗	1.15	210k	2022-02-02
XEM	NEM	native	0.127	0.129059	+1.62%	0.1015	-20.08%	0.0125	✓	1.10	115k	2022-02-02
RIF	Rootstock Infrastructure Framework	Ethereum	0.1984	0.201551	+1.59%	0.1348	-32.06%	0.1940	✗	0.91	527k	2022-02-02
DOGE	Dogecoin	Dogecoin	0.170103	0.172118	+1.18%	0.137104	-19.40%	0.0256	✓	1.10	4.7M	2022-02-02
LAZIO	Lazio Fan Token	Binance Smart Chain	4.6279	4.6819	+1.17%	3.1357	-32.24%	0.1041	✗	1.29	5.0M	2022-02-02
MTL	Metal DAO	Metal L2	2.265	2.2888	+1.05%	1.589	-29.85%	0.1072	✗	1.12	2.7M	2022-02-02
TRX	TRON	Tron	0.076988	0.077787	+1.04%	0.058639	-23.83%	0.0666	✗	0.94	552k	2022-02-02
PHA	PHALA	Ethereum	0.414	0.417969	+0.96%	0.25	-39.61%	0.3458	✗	0.73	41k	2022-02-02
JASMY	JasmyCoin	Ethereum	0.0855	0.08617	+0.78%	0.0418	-51.11%	0.4439	✗	1.22	20.9M	2022-02-02
TKO	Tokocrypto	Binance Smart Chain	1.24	1.2493	+0.75%	0.719	-42.02%	0.3363	✗	0.94	2.5M	2022-02-02
AGLD	Adventure Gold	Ethereum	1.72	1.7321	+0.70%	1.36	-20.93%	0.1533	✓	1.72	1.0M	2022-02-02
PSG	Paris Saint-Germain Fan Token	Solana	15.18	15.2699	+0.59%	14.09	-7.18%	0.0771	✓	0.69	1.2M	2022-02-02
GT	Gate	Ethereum	6.4392	6.4734	+0.53%	6.8016	+5.63%	0.2427	✓	0.84	3.9M	2022-02-02
SUN	Sun Token	Tron	0.022053	0.022165	+0.51%	0.014783	-32.97%	0.1283	✗	1.20	2.4M	2022-02-02
DKA	dKargo	Ethereum	0.12106	0.121664	+0.50%	0.08941	-26.14%	0.0550	✗	1.10	26k	2022-02-02
XYM	Symbol	native	0.2058	0.206765	+0.47%	0.1756	-14.67%	0.0263	✗	0.60	428k	2022-02-02
NMR	Numeraire	Ethereum	31.64	31.7505	+0.35%	23.57	-25.51%	0.1423	✗	0.68	385k	2022-02-02
RLC	iExec RLC	Ethereum	3.25	3.2609	+0.33%	1.87	-42.46%	0.2563	✗	1.30	3.0M	2022-02-02
ORBS	Orbs	Ethereum	0.086	0.086265	+0.31%	0.0643	-25.23%	0.0475	✗	1.07	20k	2022-02-02
BAR	FC Barcelona Fan Token	Solana	8.89	8.9172	+0.31%	6.02	-32.28%	0.2540	✗	0.60	869k	2022-02-02
WBTC	Wrapped Bitcoin	Ethereum	46,018.20	46,100.57	+0.18%	37,883.40	-17.68%	0.0284	✓	0.98	10k	2022-02-02
BCH	Bitcoin Cash	Bitcoin Cash	434.61	435.3238	+0.16%	278	-36.03%	0.2160	✗	1.01	9.1M	2022-02-02
NANO	nanopay	Base	3.5792	3.5848	+0.16%	2.1064	-41.15%	0.2868	✗	1.07	754k	2022-02-02
DODO	DODO	Ethereum	0.904	0.905124	+0.12%	0.465	-48.56%	0.3279	✗	1.47	8.1M	2022-02-02
XPR	XPR Network	Ethereum	0.01736	0.01738	+0.11%	0.00952	-45.16%	0.3056	✗	1.29	2.2M	2022-02-02
BCHSV	Bitcoin Cash SV		122.18	122.2943	+0.09%	90	-26.34%	0.0876	✗	0.95	3.2M	2022-02-02
LTC	Litecoin	Litecoin	148.43	148.5541	+0.08%	108.36	-27.00%	0.0060	✗	1.35	38.3M	2022-02-02
BTC	Bitcoin	Bitcoin	46,459.56	46,497.27	+0.08%	36,923.39	-20.53%	0.0008	✓	1.00	727.0M	2022-02-02
SOL	Solana	Solana	170.13	170.2613	+0.08%	101.99	-40.05%	0.2675	✗	1.07	217.0M	2022-02-02
ARPA	ARPA	Ethereum	0.1004	0.100465	+0.06%	0.0599	-40.34%	0.2039	✗	1.36	1.6M	2022-02-02
ACM	AC Milan Fan Token	Solana	5.152	5.1528	+0.02%	3.998	-22.40%	0.1151	✗	0.60	598k	2022-02-02
GRT	The Graph	Ethereum	0.6582	0.658151	-0.01%	0.4048	-38.50%	0.1888	✓	1.29	11.4M	2022-02-02
DYDX	dYdX	Cosmos	8.316	8.3096	-0.08%	5.883	-29.26%	0.0549	✓	1.26	354k	2022-02-02
XVS	Venus	Ethereum	15.52	15.5029	-0.11%	7.83	-49.55%	0.4178	✓	1.15	3.5M	2022-02-02
TWT	Trust Wallet	Binance Smart Chain	0.7048	0.703159	-0.23%	0.5398	-23.41%	0.0272	✗	1.27	5.3M	2022-02-02
JUV	Juventus Fan Token	Solana	8.6	8.5785	-0.25%	6.05	-29.65%	0.1740	✓	0.76	773k	2022-02-02
FTT	FTX	Ethereum	40.22	40.1165	-0.26%	42.9	+6.66%	0.3094	✗	1.05	19.4M	2022-02-02
ETC	Ethereum Classic	native	34.72	34.6266	-0.27%	26.29	-24.28%	0.0366	✓	1.04	3.9M	2022-02-02
AUCTION	Bounce	Ethereum	24.7	24.6222	-0.32%	13.76	-44.29%	0.3455	✓	1.03	1.3M	2022-02-02
CTK	Shentu	Osmosis	1.682	1.6763	-0.34%	1.279	-23.96%	0.0422	✗	1.36	6.0M	2022-02-02
ASR	AS Roma Fan Token	Solana	4.152	4.135	-0.41%	3.03	-27.02%	0.1586	✓	0.66	483k	2022-02-02
AAVE	Aave	Ethereum	267.25	266.0462	-0.45%	151.26	-43.40%	0.3048	✓	1.13	12.6M	2022-02-02
XEC	eCash	native	0.00011648	0.000115951	-0.45%	0.00007582	-34.91%	0.1993	✓	0.98	7.4M	2022-02-02
TRB	Tellor Tributes	Ethereum	36.41	36.2159	-0.53%	20.09	-44.82%	0.2380	✓	1.53	1.1M	2022-02-02
VSYS	V.SYSTEMS	native	0.02023	0.020119	-0.55%	0.0126	-37.72%	0.3196	✓	0.65	36k	2022-02-02
BAND	Band	Ethereum	5.56	5.529	-0.56%	3.37	-39.39%	0.2214	✓	1.19	2.1M	2022-02-02
QNT	Quant	Ethereum	178.99	177.9738	-0.57%	113.54	-36.57%	0.2293	✓	0.96	8.7M	2022-02-02
LSK	Lisk	Ethereum	2.3545	2.3391	-0.65%	1.6005	-32.02%	0.1212	✓	1.12	100k	2022-02-02
QTUM	Qtum	Qtum	9.2052	9.1403	-0.71%	6.025	-34.55%	0.0916	✓	1.42	273k	2022-02-02
SKL	SKALE	Ethereum	0.2052	0.203516	-0.82%	0.1092	-46.78%	0.3376	✓	1.24	4.8M	2022-02-02
DASH	Dash	Dash	139.05	137.9042	-0.82%	93.05	-33.08%	0.1023	✓	1.27	1.9M	2022-02-02
XMR	Monero	Monero	231.81	229.8379	-0.85%	145.08	-37.41%	0.2293	✓	1.00	3.2M	2022-02-02
DOT	Polkadot	Polkadot	30.09	29.8102	-0.93%	18.76	-37.65%	0.1671	✓	1.29	72.5M	2022-02-02
XVG	Verge	native	0.01731	0.017144	-0.96%	0.00978	-43.50%	0.2872	✓	1.19	2.2M	2022-02-02
MED	Medibloc	Osmosis	0.05659	0.056024	-1.00%	0.03913	-30.85%	0.1062	✓	1.10	15k	2022-02-02
UMA	UMA	Ethereum	9.27	9.175	-1.03%	5.49	-40.78%	0.2574	✓	1.12	3.9M	2022-02-02
UNI	Uniswap	Ethereum	18.47	18.2639	-1.12%	10.53	-42.99%	0.2559	✓	1.28	14.1M	2022-02-02
ICP	Internet Computer	Ethereum	29.28	28.9209	-1.23%	21.59	-26.26%	0.0312	✗	1.41	24.2M	2022-02-02
FIL	Filecoin	Filecoin	35.08	34.6425	-1.25%	20.19	-42.45%	0.3008	✓	1.04	22.7M	2022-02-02
LINK	Chainlink	Ethereum	23.72	23.4205	-1.26%	15.79	-33.43%	0.0901	✓	1.32	69.2M	2022-02-02
CITY	Manchester City Fan Token	Solana	10.51	10.3756	-1.28%	9.36	-10.94%	0.0686	✗	0.75	1.3M	2022-02-02
XLM	Stellar	Stellar	0.290288	0.286465	-1.32%	0.193151	-33.46%	0.1606	✓	1.02	24.9M	2022-02-02
ASM	Assemble AI	Ethereum	0.09008	0.088866	-1.35%	0.05325	-40.89%	0.1780	✓	1.45	3.0M	2022-02-02
SNX	Synthetix	Ethereum	7.19	7.0924	-1.36%	5.33	-25.87%	0.0241	✓	1.14	3.3M	2022-02-02
KSM	Kusama	Hydration	289.65	285.7047	-1.36%	162.31	-43.96%	0.3091	✓	1.12	1.3M	2022-02-02
CERE	Cere Network	Ethereum	0.0731	0.072097	-1.37%	0.034	-53.49%	0.4304	✓	1.40	1.7M	2022-02-02
KNC	Kyber Network Crystal	Ethereum	1.3948	1.3754	-1.39%	1.8613	+33.45%	0.5552	✗	1.10	926k	2022-02-02
CHZ	Chiliz	Ethereum	0.3005	0.296161	-1.44%	0.1803	-40.00%	0.1965	✓	1.30	4.6M	2022-02-02
ADA	Cardano	Cardano	1.3186	1.2984	-1.53%	1.0268	-22.13%	0.0172	✗	1.10	98.5M	2022-02-02
PORTO	FC Porto	Binance Smart Chain	3.1177	3.0695	-1.55%	3.0352	-2.65%	0.2641	✗	1.20	3.1M	2022-02-02
OMG	OMG Network	Ethereum	6.1828	6.0872	-1.55%	4.6307	-25.10%	0.0025	✓	1.20	577k	2022-02-02
ETH	Ethereum	Ethereum	3,766.04	3,702.48	-1.69%	2,682.66	-28.77%	0.0837	✓	1.04	654.8M	2022-02-02
ACH	Alchemy Pay	Ethereum	0.0636	0.062503	-1.73%	0.035872	-43.60%	0.2358	✓	1.39	7.5M	2022-02-02
COTI	COTI	Ethereum	0.3888	0.381804	-1.80%	0.2783	-28.42%	0.0259	✗	1.49	3.4M	2022-02-02
BNT	Bancor Network	Ethereum	3.43	3.3655	-1.88%	2.41	-29.74%	0.1046	✓	1.00	995k	2022-02-02
OXT	Orchid Protocol	Ethereum	0.3721	0.364847	-1.95%	0.2314	-37.81%	0.1627	✓	1.27	3.4M	2022-02-02
DNT	district0x	Ethereum	0.1352	0.132552	-1.96%	0.0794	-41.27%	0.2661	✓	1.07	310k	2022-02-02
BEL	Bella Protocol	Ethereum	1.616	1.584	-1.98%	0.883	-45.36%	0.2876	✓	1.29	3.4M	2022-02-02
ZEC	Zcash	Zcash	150.55	147.4085	-2.09%	98.35	-34.67%	0.0945	✓	1.35	10.3M	2022-02-02
AMP	Amp	Ethereum	0.05248	0.051353	-2.15%	0.02927	-44.23%	0.3563	✓	0.90	8.2M	2022-02-02
CBK	Cobak	Ethereum	3.381	3.3078	-2.17%	2.235	-33.90%	0.1979	✓	0.85	41k	2022-02-02
OG	OG Fan Token	Solana	4.777	4.6725	-2.19%	3.166	-33.72%	0.2147	✓	0.76	1.2M	2022-02-02
MOVR	Moonriver	Base	191.896	187.4307	-2.33%	73.5972	-61.65%	0.6679	✓	1.16	574k	2022-02-02
ZRX	0x Protocol	Ethereum	0.94026	0.917291	-2.44%	0.5718	-39.19%	0.2157	✓	1.12	2.8M	2022-02-02
MINA	Mina Protocol	native	3.57	3.4813	-2.48%	2.46	-31.09%	0.0986	✓	1.08	626k	2022-02-02
NAKA	Nakamoto Games	Polygon	1.5062	1.4683	-2.51%	0.37	-75.43%	1.1906	✓	0.82	4.5M	2022-02-02
LEO	LEO Token	Ethereum	3.7914	3.6932	-2.59%	4.1355	+9.08%	0.0875	✗	-0.11	374k	2022-02-02
XYO	XYO Network	Ethereum	0.033837	0.032918	-2.72%	0.020246	-40.17%	0.2508	✓	1.02	7.8M	2022-02-02
AXS	Axie Infinity	Ethereum	94.38	91.6782	-2.86%	49.12	-47.96%	0.4031	✓	0.96	6.3M	2022-02-02
SC	Siacoin	native	0.01573	0.015279	-2.87%	0.00983	-37.51%	0.2216	✓	0.96	817k	2022-02-02
XTZ	Tezos	Tezos	4.8156	4.6763	-2.89%	3.7524	-22.08%	0.0864	✗	1.33	4.9M	2022-02-02
TRAC	OriginTrail	Ethereum	1.2437	1.2059	-3.04%	0.6281	-49.50%	0.3308	✓	1.40	1.9M	2022-02-02
ZEN	Horizen	Base	63.44	61.5042	-3.05%	38.13	-39.90%	0.1317	✓	1.51	837k	2022-02-02
LCX	LCX	Ethereum	0.197	0.190904	-3.09%	0.11	-44.16%	0.2790	✓	1.19	2.4M	2022-02-02
ANKR	Ankr Network	Ethereum	0.11092	0.107307	-3.26%	0.07379	-33.47%	0.2273	✓	0.64	55k	2022-02-02
BAT	Basic Attention	Ethereum	1.3019	1.2594	-3.27%	0.81012	-37.77%	0.0362	✓	1.76	1.3M	2022-02-02
SUPER	SuperVerse	Ethereum	1.14	1.1002	-3.49%	0.64	-43.86%	0.3120	✓	1.00	1.9M	2022-02-02
LRC	Loopring	Ethereum	2.0456	1.9739	-3.51%	0.8664	-57.65%	0.3921	✓	1.88	1.5M	2022-02-02
KCS	KuCoin	native	22.363	21.5754	-3.52%	17.776	-20.51%	0.1816	✗	1.63	14.1M	2022-02-02
EWT	Energy Web Token	Ethereum	9.436	9.102	-3.54%	5.754	-39.02%	0.3183	✓	0.61	302k	2022-02-02
CTSI	Cartesi	Ethereum	0.6942	0.669201	-3.60%	0.4277	-38.39%	0.1433	✓	1.32	2.9M	2022-02-02
METRONOME	METRONOME		4.605	4.4374	-3.64%	3.3042	-28.25%	0.1359	✓	0.69	18k	2022-02-02
SHIB	Shiba Inu	Ethereum	0.00003307	0.000031847	-3.70%	0.00002064	-37.59%	0.1475	✓	1.25	1.7M	2022-02-02
ALGO	Algorand	Algorand	1.7949	1.7285	-3.70%	0.9235	-48.55%	0.3714	✓	1.11	30.0M	2022-02-02
STORJ	Storj	Ethereum	1.8521	1.7825	-3.75%	1.1125	-39.93%	0.2869	✓	0.80	689k	2022-02-02
OGN	Origin Token	Ethereum	0.64	0.615033	-3.90%	0.316	-50.63%	0.3761	✓	1.26	2.2M	2022-02-02
IOTA	IOTA	IOTA	1.3842	1.3286	-4.01%	0.8404	-39.29%	0.2429	✓	0.94	21.2M	2022-02-02
RAD	Radworks	Ethereum	11.29	10.8129	-4.23%	5.22	-53.76%	0.5355	✓	0.84	1.2M	2022-02-02
DEXE	DeXe	Ethereum	11.56	11.0685	-4.25%	6.53	-43.51%	0.5661	✓	-0.17	2.3M	2022-02-02
CVC	Civic	Ethereum	0.374	0.357432	-4.43%	0.278	-25.67%	0.0228	✓	0.99	293k	2022-02-02
LUNA	Terra	Terra 2	88.92	84.9285	-4.49%	47.6	-46.47%	0.3492	✓	1.00	5.3M	2022-02-02
IMX	Immutable	Ethereum	4.57	4.3643	-4.50%	3.03	-33.70%	0.1352	✓	1.00	2.5M	2022-02-02
ENJ	Enjin Coin	Ethereum	2.796	2.6696	-4.52%	1.696	-39.34%	0.2188	✓	1.02	1.9M	2022-02-02
SUSHI	Sushi	Ethereum	8.51	8.0913	-4.92%	4.09	-51.94%	0.3817	✓	1.31	17.7M	2022-02-02
UOS	Ultra	Ethereum	1.5394	1.4624	-5.00%	1.0423	-32.29%	0.1203	✓	0.95	3.7M	2022-02-02
POWR	Powerledger	Ethereum	0.64	0.606922	-5.17%	0.5361	-16.23%	0.1956	✗	1.39	650k	2022-02-02
ENS	Ethereum Name Service	Ethereum	39.23	37.1917	-5.20%	18.01	-54.09%	0.3121	✓	1.80	5.7M	2022-02-02
ATOM	Cosmos Hub	Cosmos	39.29	37.2337	-5.23%	26.33	-32.99%	0.1380	✓	0.91	43.4M	2022-02-02
MANA	Decentraland	Ethereum	3.2506	3.0789	-5.28%	2.537	-21.95%	0.0227	✓	0.94	5.9M	2022-02-02
YFI	yearn.finance	Ethereum	38,753.93	36,628.33	-5.48%	23,029.36	-40.58%	0.3255	✓	0.60	15.7M	2022-02-02
LPT	Livepeer	Ethereum	41.84	39.5442	-5.49%	26.55	-36.54%	0.0195	✓	1.65	2.8M	2022-02-02
API3	Api3	Ethereum	4.13	3.9018	-5.53%	3.4	-17.68%	0.0921	✗	1.00	1.0M	2022-02-02
AVAX	Avalanche	Avalanche	108.09	102.0249	-5.61%	67.87	-37.21%	0.1515	✓	1.11	119.6M	2022-02-02
PEOPLE	ConstitutionDAO	Ethereum	0.1235	0.116162	-5.94%	0.0786	-36.36%	0.1609	✓	1.00	35.9M	2022-02-02
MASK	Mask Network	Ethereum	12.81	11.9425	-6.77%	5.77	-54.96%	0.5890	✓	0.60	1.3M	2022-02-02
CELL	Cellframe	Ethereum	1.0025	0.930266	-7.21%	0.8666	-13.56%	0.1588	✗	1.00	146k	2022-02-02
SANTOS	Santos FC Fan Token	Binance Smart Chain	3.467	3.2147	-7.28%	2.582	-25.53%	0.1476	✗	1.60	1.9M	2022-02-02
GITCOIN	GITCOIN		13.612	12.5427	-7.86%	7.564	-44.43%	0.5186	✓	-0.06	98k	2022-02-02
CRV	Curve DAO	Ethereum	6.53	6.0154	-7.88%	3.11	-52.37%	0.3491	✓	1.35	29.3M	2022-02-02
HIVE	Hive	native	1.6303	1.4955	-8.27%	0.9455	-42.00%	0.1416	✓	1.38	5.5M	2022-02-02
GODS	Gods Unchained	Ethereum	4.17	3.8247	-8.28%	2.18	-47.72%	0.3324	✓	1.00	3.4M	2022-02-02
BFC	Bifrost	Ethereum	0.19941	0.180295	-9.59%	0.19118	-4.13%	0.4188	✗	1.57	6,519	2022-02-02
BICO	Biconomy	Ethereum	3.89	3.4868	-10.37%	1.9	-51.16%	0.3031	✓	1.32	11.2M	2022-02-02
GTC	Gitcoin	Ethereum	13.72	12.2574	-10.66%	7.54	-45.04%	0.4864	✓	-0.00	3.7M	2022-02-02
SPELL	Spell	Ethereum	0.02216	0.019578	-11.65%	0.00607	-72.61%	0.9413	✓	1.00	29.0M	2022-02-02
DUSK	DUSK	Ethereum	0.8413	0.714264	-15.10%	0.4666	-44.54%	0.0320	✓	1.71	31.9M	2022-02-02

Δ columns are percentage price moves; alpha err and the hit column are in beta-adjusted log-return space, which is what the model actually predicts. “pending” means the horizon has not matured yet. Rows are capped for readability — add &limit=2000 to widen.