2022-02-17 · +30d

gru_s3 · in-sample — the model trained on this date · 150 tokens predicted

These numbers are in-sample. The model was trained on this date, so predicted-vs-actual agreement here is not evidence of skill.

+1d +7d +30d asset cohort only

rank IC

+0.3382

150 of 150 tokens assessed

long-short decile

+26.99%

realised beta-adjusted alpha

direction hit

74.0%

in alpha space · 58.4% on raw price

BTC over horizon

+4.18%

the unhedgeable market factor

Predicted vs actual (150 rows, sorted by pred)

token	name	chain	anchor px	pred px ▾	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d	vol 30d	target
UNI	Uniswap	Ethereum	10.41	10.5335	+1.19%	9.74	-6.44%	0.1319	✗	1.31	11.7M	2022-03-19
DNT	district0x	Ethereum	0.0849	0.084827	-0.09%	0.0761	-10.37%	0.1548	✓	1.13	201k	2022-03-19
XLM	Stellar	Stellar	0.202261	0.201743	-0.26%	0.20054	-0.85%	0.0474	✓	1.01	21.9M	2022-03-19
MED	Medibloc	Osmosis	0.04103	0.040823	-0.50%	0.04149	+1.12%	0.0290	✓	1.10	32k	2022-03-19
STORJ	Storj	Ethereum	1.0731	1.0675	-0.52%	1.0989	+2.41%	0.0145	✓	1.06	189k	2022-03-19
COTI	COTI	Ethereum	0.2558	0.254314	-0.58%	0.2115	-17.32%	0.2468	✓	1.52	3.9M	2022-03-19
GT	Gate	Ethereum	6.58	6.5354	-0.68%	6.3214	-3.93%	0.0672	✓	0.83	3.7M	2022-03-19
IMX	Immutable	Ethereum	2.13	2.1155	-0.68%	2.084	-2.16%	0.0576	✓	1.04	3.2M	2022-03-19
TRX	TRON	Tron	0.062402	0.061947	-0.73%	0.061921	-0.77%	0.0348	✓	0.84	344k	2022-03-19
DKA	dKargo	Ethereum	0.0902	0.089473	-0.81%	0.09651	+7.00%	0.0310	✗	1.09	50k	2022-03-19
JASMY	JasmyCoin	Ethereum	0.02758	0.02735	-0.83%	0.03602	+30.60%	0.2195	✗	1.36	11.0M	2022-03-19
BTC	Bitcoin	Bitcoin	40,536.73	40,190.04	-0.86%	42,232.26	+4.18%	0.0086	✓	1.00	686.5M	2022-03-19
TKO	Tokocrypto	Binance Smart Chain	0.742	0.734544	-1.00%	0.654	-11.86%	0.1599	✓	1.07	1.9M	2022-03-19
XEM	NEM	native	0.1047	0.103604	-1.05%	0.1011	-3.44%	0.0660	✓	1.01	37k	2022-03-19
DOT	Polkadot	Polkadot	18.16	17.9503	-1.15%	19.42	+6.94%	0.0240	✗	1.34	32.8M	2022-03-19
ZEN	Horizen	Base	36.74	36.3094	-1.17%	41.99	+14.29%	0.0820	✗	1.55	405k	2022-03-19
KCS	KuCoin	native	19.71	19.4694	-1.22%	18.631	-5.47%	0.0945	✓	1.23	10.0M	2022-03-19
ZRX	0x Protocol	Ethereum	0.62107	0.613432	-1.23%	0.547794	-11.80%	0.1595	✓	1.13	3.6M	2022-03-19
EWT	Energy Web Token	Ethereum	6.1	6.0242	-1.24%	5.284	-13.38%	0.1643	✓	0.81	71k	2022-03-19
ANKR	Ankr Network	Ethereum	0.07416	0.073203	-1.29%	0.07465	+0.66%	0.0118	✓	0.77	89k	2022-03-19
QNT	Quant	Ethereum	119.39	117.8095	-1.32%	119.96	+0.48%	0.0231	✓	1.00	7.6M	2022-03-19
SOL	Solana	Solana	93.56	92.3155	-1.33%	92.39	-1.25%	0.0498	✓	1.23	179.7M	2022-03-19
GITCOIN	GITCOIN		7.107	7.011	-1.35%	7.016	-1.28%	0.0137	✓	0.35	37k	2022-03-19
LUNA	Terra	Terra 2	50.27	49.5392	-1.45%	92.1	+83.21%	0.5622	✗	1.41	6.1M	2022-03-19
ETH	Ethereum	Ethereum	2,893.56	2,849.28	-1.53%	2,952.16	+2.03%	0.0101	✓	1.11	588.4M	2022-03-19
DOGE	Dogecoin	Dogecoin	0.138407	0.136268	-1.55%	0.123635	-10.67%	0.1382	✓	1.00	5.9M	2022-03-19
OGN	Origin Token	Ethereum	0.334	0.328726	-1.58%	0.698	+108.98%	0.6974	✗	1.36	2.3M	2022-03-19
SC	Siacoin	native	0.00987	0.009714	-1.58%	0.00981	-0.61%	0.0324	✓	1.03	489k	2022-03-19
SPELL	Spell	Ethereum	0.0054	0.005314	-1.59%	0.0036	-33.33%	0.4691	✓	1.94	16.8M	2022-03-19
BCH	Bitcoin Cash	Bitcoin Cash	313.15	308.0073	-1.64%	328.01	+4.75%	0.0229	✗	0.98	8.4M	2022-03-19
CBK	Cobak	Ethereum	2.231	2.1941	-1.65%	2.249	+0.81%	0.0184	✓	1.05	20k	2022-03-19
WBTC	Wrapped Bitcoin	Ethereum	40,651.20	39,968.00	-1.68%	42,269.50	+3.98%	0.0160	✓	0.97	58k	2022-03-19
AUCTION	Bounce	Ethereum	14.58	14.329	-1.72%	22.51	+54.39%	0.4098	✗	1.02	483k	2022-03-19
LSK	Lisk	Ethereum	1.6695	1.6407	-1.72%	2.1759	+30.33%	0.2357	✗	1.14	72k	2022-03-19
XYM	Symbol	native	0.1642	0.161328	-1.75%	0.137	-16.57%	0.1905	✓	0.66	388k	2022-03-19
KSM	Kusama	Hydration	155.14	152.3391	-1.81%	146.84	-5.35%	0.0848	✓	1.17	973k	2022-03-19
XEC	eCash	native	0.00007849	0.000077035	-1.85%	0.00008321	+6.01%	0.0309	✗	1.13	4.8M	2022-03-19
CTSI	Cartesi	Ethereum	0.4344	0.426133	-1.90%	0.3558	-18.09%	0.2401	✓	1.46	1.8M	2022-03-19
DASH	Dash	Dash	104.76	102.7583	-1.91%	103.03	-1.65%	0.0424	✓	1.10	1.8M	2022-03-19
ASM	Assemble AI	Ethereum	0.05215	0.051153	-1.91%	0.05148	-1.28%	0.0499	✓	1.37	1.1M	2022-03-19
DEXE	DeXe	Ethereum	7.46	7.3161	-1.93%	6.3	-15.55%	0.1584	✓	0.22	1.3M	2022-03-19
ALGO	Algorand	Algorand	0.8983	0.880374	-2.00%	0.7651	-14.83%	0.1904	✓	1.22	26.6M	2022-03-19
GRT	The Graph	Ethereum	0.4369	0.428076	-2.02%	0.4109	-5.95%	0.0975	✓	1.38	8.9M	2022-03-19
NANO	nanopay	Base	2.1008	2.0569	-2.09%	2.2702	+8.07%	0.0483	✗	1.23	315k	2022-03-19
AMP	Amp	Ethereum	0.02995	0.029323	-2.09%	0.02695	-10.02%	0.1191	✓	0.85	5.8M	2022-03-19
LCX	LCX	Ethereum	0.0969	0.0948	-2.17%	0.0886	-8.57%	0.1295	✓	1.51	944k	2022-03-19
BCHSV	Bitcoin Cash SV		87.71	85.8074	-2.17%	83.33	-4.99%	0.0656	✓	0.89	1.1M	2022-03-19
ETC	Ethereum Classic	native	29.43	28.7821	-2.20%	33.99	+15.49%	0.1228	✗	1.06	5.4M	2022-03-19
BEL	Bella Protocol	Ethereum	0.894	0.874303	-2.20%	0.863	-3.47%	0.0681	✓	1.34	2.4M	2022-03-19
BAT	Basic Attention	Ethereum	0.76017	0.743247	-2.23%	0.84022	+10.53%	0.0625	✗	1.47	334k	2022-03-19
AXS	Axie Infinity	Ethereum	56.37	55.1004	-2.25%	52.05	-7.66%	0.1088	✓	1.27	9.2M	2022-03-19
BAR	FC Barcelona Fan Token	Solana	6.03	5.8938	-2.26%	8.09	+34.16%	0.2829	✗	0.83	435k	2022-03-19
DYDX	dYdX	Cosmos	6.499	6.352	-2.26%	5.261	-19.05%	0.2287	✓	0.98	407k	2022-03-19
MTL	Metal DAO	Metal L2	1.541	1.5053	-2.31%	1.639	+6.36%	0.0380	✗	1.15	2.1M	2022-03-19
ASR	AS Roma Fan Token	Solana	3.08	3.0086	-2.32%	3.33	+8.12%	0.0699	✗	0.77	212k	2022-03-19
ORBS	Orbs	Ethereum	0.0698	0.068168	-2.34%	0.07384	+5.79%	0.0361	✗	1.07	17k	2022-03-19
CVC	Civic	Ethereum	0.2746	0.267662	-2.53%	0.2986	+8.74%	0.0629	✗	1.14	538k	2022-03-19
CTK	Shentu	Osmosis	1.142	1.1129	-2.55%	1.285	+12.52%	0.0932	✗	1.24	3.4M	2022-03-19
LTC	Litecoin	Litecoin	116.39	113.4076	-2.56%	116.82	+0.37%	0.0202	✓	1.22	31.6M	2022-03-19
ATM	Atletico Madrid Fan Token	Solana	5.36	5.2208	-2.60%	6.43	+19.96%	0.1776	✗	0.75	415k	2022-03-19
XVS	Venus	Ethereum	11.44	11.1403	-2.62%	9.14	-20.10%	0.2480	✓	1.22	3.2M	2022-03-19
GODS	Gods Unchained	Ethereum	1.66	1.6165	-2.62%	1.21	-27.11%	0.3394	✓	1.21	1.2M	2022-03-19
VSYS	V.SYSTEMS	native	0.01258	0.012249	-2.63%	0.01239	-1.51%	0.0214	✓	0.80	15k	2022-03-19
PHA	PHALA	Ethereum	0.268	0.26086	-2.66%	0.239	-10.82%	0.1242	✓	0.90	70k	2022-03-19
OXT	Orchid Protocol	Ethereum	0.2525	0.245763	-2.67%	0.2536	+0.44%	0.0096	✓	1.00	1.8M	2022-03-19
UOS	Ultra	Ethereum	1.2511	1.2176	-2.68%	1.1565	-7.57%	0.1038	✓	1.28	2.5M	2022-03-19
FTT	FTX	Ethereum	43.72	42.5448	-2.69%	44.92	+2.74%	0.0067	✓	1.16	30.4M	2022-03-19
XVG	Verge	native	0.0107	0.010411	-2.70%	0.00967	-9.63%	0.1276	✓	1.31	1.2M	2022-03-19
ADA	Cardano	Cardano	1.0203	0.992356	-2.74%	0.903	-11.50%	0.1398	✓	1.11	102.4M	2022-03-19
CHZ	Chiliz	Ethereum	0.2015	0.195964	-2.75%	0.2114	+4.91%	0.0200	✓	1.36	3.6M	2022-03-19
NMR	Numeraire	Ethereum	26.61	25.8619	-2.81%	29.06	+9.21%	0.0780	✗	0.94	1.2M	2022-03-19
SHIB	Shiba Inu	Ethereum	0.00002821	0.000027417	-2.81%	0.00002416	-14.36%	0.1832	✓	1.38	3.5M	2022-03-19
TWT	Trust Wallet	Binance Smart Chain	0.542	0.526276	-2.90%	0.8804	+62.44%	0.4612	✗	1.30	2.4M	2022-03-19
AAVE	Aave	Ethereum	152.99	148.5398	-2.91%	157.26	+2.79%	0.0003	✓	1.40	7.8M	2022-03-19
CITY	Manchester City Fan Token	Solana	10.24	9.9408	-2.92%	12.43	+21.39%	0.1967	✗	0.65	821k	2022-03-19
GTC	Gitcoin	Ethereum	7.1	6.8834	-3.05%	7.03	-0.99%	0.0060	✓	0.37	1.7M	2022-03-19
HIVE	Hive	native	1.0138	0.982714	-3.07%	0.9324	-8.03%	0.1161	✓	1.55	1.9M	2022-03-19
LINK	Chainlink	Ethereum	15.6	15.115	-3.11%	15.01	-3.78%	0.0557	✓	1.19	69.3M	2022-03-19
LPT	Livepeer	Ethereum	25.54	24.7453	-3.11%	27.71	+8.50%	0.0525	✗	1.48	2.0M	2022-03-19
COMP	Compound	Ethereum	123.7	119.8291	-3.13%	118.78	-3.98%	0.0614	✓	1.28	65k	2022-03-19
RAD	Radworks	Ethereum	5.54	5.3615	-3.22%	4.69	-15.34%	0.1755	✓	1.02	701k	2022-03-19
QTUM	Qtum	Qtum	7.015	6.7877	-3.24%	6.3544	-9.42%	0.1256	✓	1.46	165k	2022-03-19
FIL	Filecoin	Filecoin	20.54	19.8708	-3.26%	18.21	-11.34%	0.1373	✓	1.22	10.8M	2022-03-19
ACM	AC Milan Fan Token	Solana	4.567	4.4181	-3.26%	4.875	+6.74%	0.0654	✗	0.81	379k	2022-03-19
XMR	Monero	Monero	163.89	158.5269	-3.27%	197.76	+20.67%	0.1796	✗	1.01	1.2M	2022-03-19
XYO	XYO Network	Ethereum	0.020359	0.019692	-3.27%	0.02061	+1.23%	0.0014	✓	1.15	2.4M	2022-03-19
RIF	Rootstock Infrastructure Framework	Ethereum	0.1536	0.148531	-3.30%	0.155	+0.91%	0.0004	✓	1.03	470k	2022-03-19
AVT	Aventus	Ethereum	2.89	2.7896	-3.47%	2.15	-25.61%	0.3014	✓	1.00	723k	2022-03-19
SANTOS	Santos FC Fan Token	Binance Smart Chain	2.668	2.5734	-3.55%	5.895	+120.95%	0.7763	✗	1.28	986k	2022-03-19
ZEC	Zcash	Zcash	113.58	109.5249	-3.57%	179.68	+58.20%	0.4456	✗	1.21	7.6M	2022-03-19
UMA	UMA	Ethereum	6.03	5.8144	-3.58%	7.689	+27.51%	0.2386	✗	1.00	1.9M	2022-03-19
ENS	Ethereum Name Service	Ethereum	15.78	15.2029	-3.66%	16.43	+4.12%	0.0087	✓	1.68	3.2M	2022-03-19
BFC	Bifrost	Ethereum	0.16982	0.163511	-3.72%	0.15441	-9.07%	0.1160	✓	1.43	32k	2022-03-19
SNX	Synthetix	Ethereum	4.59	4.4185	-3.74%	5.173	+12.70%	0.1078	✗	1.22	2.6M	2022-03-19
MINA	Mina Protocol	native	2.56	2.4642	-3.74%	2.16	-15.62%	0.1804	✓	1.19	390k	2022-03-19
BNT	Bancor Network	Ethereum	2.47	2.3774	-3.75%	2.4	-2.83%	0.0324	✓	1.02	361k	2022-03-19
OMG	OMG Network	Ethereum	4.3951	4.2294	-3.77%	4.7092	+7.14%	0.0594	✗	1.17	335k	2022-03-19
LRC	Loopring	Ethereum	0.883	0.849641	-3.78%	0.936	+6.00%	0.0378	✓	1.44	501k	2022-03-19
1INCH	1INCH	Ethereum	1.65	1.5872	-3.81%	1.635	-0.91%	0.0203	✓	1.22	1.3M	2022-03-19
LAZIO	Lazio Fan Token	Binance Smart Chain	3.227	3.1026	-3.85%	4.1949	+29.99%	0.2609	✗	0.99	2.4M	2022-03-19
JUV	Juventus Fan Token	Solana	6.42	6.1722	-3.86%	6.42	+0.00%	0.0046	✓	0.85	449k	2022-03-19
AVAX	Avalanche	Avalanche	88.28	84.833	-3.90%	89.58	+1.47%	0.0032	✓	1.41	106.7M	2022-03-19
MASK	Mask Network	Ethereum	5.45	5.2364	-3.92%	4.65	-14.68%	0.1617	✓	1.05	532k	2022-03-19
ENJ	Enjin Coin	Ethereum	1.741	1.6682	-4.18%	1.51	-13.27%	0.1553	✓	1.36	1.1M	2022-03-19
MANA	Decentraland	Ethereum	3.0801	2.9472	-4.32%	2.508	-18.58%	0.2084	✓	1.15	3.3M	2022-03-19
TRAC	OriginTrail	Ethereum	0.6239	0.596877	-4.33%	0.4542	-27.20%	0.3316	✓	1.43	665k	2022-03-19
STX	Stacks	native	1.4	1.3379	-4.44%	1.32	-5.71%	0.0544	✓	1.00	963k	2022-03-19
AGLD	Adventure Gold	Ethereum	1.07	1.0223	-4.46%	1.512	+41.31%	0.3370	✗	1.33	751k	2022-03-19
ATOM	Cosmos Hub	Cosmos	28.08	26.8197	-4.49%	28.65	+2.03%	0.0233	✓	1.04	66.4M	2022-03-19
POWR	Powerledger	Ethereum	0.5558	0.530343	-4.58%	0.5182	-6.77%	0.0602	✓	0.90	804k	2022-03-19
RLC	iExec RLC	Ethereum	1.9	1.8126	-4.60%	1.93	+1.58%	0.0079	✓	1.34	2.1M	2022-03-19
TRB	Tellor Tributes	Ethereum	21.3	20.2898	-4.74%	20.56	-3.47%	0.0490	✓	1.52	387k	2022-03-19
IOTA	IOTA	IOTA	0.8222	0.782214	-4.86%	0.7509	-8.67%	0.0844	✓	1.06	11.6M	2022-03-19
OG	OG Fan Token	Solana	3.268	3.1039	-5.02%	3.759	+15.02%	0.1554	✗	0.88	481k	2022-03-19
ARPA	ARPA	Ethereum	0.0825	0.078355	-5.02%	0.072	-12.73%	0.1388	✓	1.32	966k	2022-03-19
DUSK	DUSK	Ethereum	0.4073	0.386809	-5.03%	0.3541	-13.06%	0.1564	✓	1.66	18.6M	2022-03-19
YFI	yearn.finance	Ethereum	22,441.70	21,306.40	-5.06%	20,673.79	-7.88%	0.0711	✓	1.00	6.9M	2022-03-19
LEO	LEO Token	Ethereum	5.5502	5.2656	-5.13%	6.054	+9.08%	0.1240	✗	0.38	441k	2022-03-19
PORTO	FC Porto	Binance Smart Chain	3.3132	3.1396	-5.24%	3.779	+14.06%	0.1467	✗	0.94	2.3M	2022-03-19
CRV	Curve DAO	Ethereum	2.91	2.7556	-5.31%	2.286	-21.44%	0.2480	✓	1.49	15.9M	2022-03-19
XPR	XPR Network	Ethereum	0.01178	0.011154	-5.31%	0.01214	+3.06%	0.0208	✓	1.56	2.0M	2022-03-19
KNC	Kyber Network Crystal	Ethereum	2.2781	2.156	-5.36%	3.3286	+46.11%	0.4121	✗	0.54	3.1M	2022-03-19
XTZ	Tezos	Tezos	3.6686	3.4694	-5.43%	3.2577	-11.20%	0.1148	✓	1.27	2.4M	2022-03-19
BAND	Band	Ethereum	4.44	4.1875	-5.69%	3.81	-14.19%	0.1450	✓	1.23	1.9M	2022-03-19
PSG	Paris Saint-Germain Fan Token	Solana	15.35	14.4741	-5.71%	13.17	-14.20%	0.1223	✓	0.68	1.7M	2022-03-19
API3	Api3	Ethereum	5	4.7134	-5.73%	5.02	+0.40%	0.0535	✓	0.23	1.8M	2022-03-19
SUSHI	Sushi	Ethereum	3.95	3.7203	-5.82%	3.36	-14.94%	0.1579	✓	1.37	8.2M	2022-03-19
BICO	Biconomy	Ethereum	1.69	1.5908	-5.87%	1.588	-6.04%	0.0574	✓	1.36	2.7M	2022-03-19
SUN	Sun Token	Tron	0.015816	0.014884	-5.89%	0.012233	-22.65%	0.2415	✓	1.11	417k	2022-03-19
BTTC	BTTC		0.00000206	0.000001938	-5.92%	0.00000187	-9.22%	0.0767	✓	1.00	14.2M	2022-03-19
CELL	Cellframe	Ethereum	1.4805	1.3917	-6.00%	1.5032	+1.53%	0.0146	✓	1.53	144k	2022-03-19
METRONOME	METRONOME		3.4641	3.2552	-6.03%	2.2005	-36.48%	0.4299	✓	0.93	28k	2022-03-19
PEOPLE	ConstitutionDAO	Ethereum	0.0608	0.05702	-6.22%	0.066	+8.55%	0.0750	✗	1.74	64.3M	2022-03-19
SKL	SKALE	Ethereum	0.1568	0.146925	-6.30%	0.1318	-15.94%	0.1602	✓	1.26	3.3M	2022-03-19
DODO	DODO	Ethereum	0.493	0.460992	-6.49%	0.435	-11.76%	0.1153	✓	1.40	4.5M	2022-03-19
ASTR	Astar	Ethereum	0.124	0.115839	-6.58%	0.11	-11.29%	0.0980	✓	1.13	57k	2022-03-19
SUPER	SuperVerse	Ethereum	0.94	0.867939	-7.67%	0.66	-29.79%	0.3546	✓	1.97	1.2M	2022-03-19
ORCA	Orca	Solana	2.92	2.6916	-7.82%	2.13	-27.05%	0.2750	✓	1.00	775k	2022-03-19
ICP	Internet Computer	Ethereum	19.86	18.3053	-7.83%	17.62	-11.28%	0.0855	✓	1.16	24.4M	2022-03-19
DIA	DIA	Ethereum	1.2	1.1054	-7.89%	0.94	-21.67%	0.2030	✓	1.00	270k	2022-03-19
FIDA	Bonfida	Solana	2.105	1.9241	-8.59%	1.718	-18.38%	0.1543	✓	1.00	76k	2022-03-19
ACH	Alchemy Pay	Ethereum	0.051055	0.046338	-9.24%	0.042197	-17.35%	0.1430	✓	1.21	7.6M	2022-03-19
CWEB	Coinweb	Ethereum	0.026932	0.024181	-10.22%	0.019485	-27.65%	0.2631	✓	1.15	89k	2022-03-19
MOVR	Moonriver	Base	85.9444	75.666	-11.96%	56.5062	-34.25%	0.3535	✓	1.50	315k	2022-03-19
CERE	Cere Network	Ethereum	0.0309	0.026971	-12.72%	0.02698	-12.69%	0.0592	✓	1.45	499k	2022-03-19
PRO	Propy	Ethereum	2.17	1.8824	-13.25%	1.53	-29.49%	0.2808	✓	1.79	782k	2022-03-19
NAKA	Nakamoto Games	Polygon	0.5382	0.46471	-13.65%	0.4445	-17.41%	0.1195	✓	1.83	1.8M	2022-03-19
POKT	Pocket Network	Ethereum	1.2327	1.0394	-15.68%	0.766	-37.86%	0.3353	✓	0.73	1.5M	2022-03-19
NCT	PolySwarm	Ethereum	0.04378	0.036288	-17.11%	0.03453	-21.13%	0.0783	✓	0.70	2.0M	2022-03-19
GLMR	Moonbeam	Base	4.316	3.5308	-18.19%	2.85	-33.97%	0.2596	✓	1.11	620k	2022-03-19

Δ columns are percentage price moves; alpha err and the hit column are in beta-adjusted log-return space, which is what the model actually predicts. “pending” means the horizon has not matured yet. Rows are capped for readability — add &limit=2000 to widen.