2021-12-22 · +30d

gru_s3 · in-sample — the model trained on this date · 136 tokens predicted

These numbers are in-sample. The model was trained on this date, so predicted-vs-actual agreement here is not evidence of skill.

+1d +7d +30d asset cohort only

rank IC

+0.3851

136 of 136 tokens assessed

long-short decile

+17.26%

realised beta-adjusted alpha

direction hit

67.6%

in alpha space · 86.0% on raw price

BTC over horizon

-25.00%

the unhedgeable market factor

Predicted vs actual (136 rows, sorted by pred)

token	name	chain	anchor px	pred px ▴	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d	vol 30d	target
DUSK	DUSK	Ethereum	0.6721	0.549479	-18.24%	0.6365	-5.30%	0.6759	✗	1.84	12.6M	2022-01-21
SPELL	Spell	Ethereum	0.02388	0.020188	-15.46%	0.0092	-61.47%	0.4982	✓	1.00	34.3M	2022-01-21
BFC	Bifrost	Ethereum	0.20351	0.177529	-12.77%	0.16704	-17.92%	0.4079	✗	1.63	34k	2022-01-21
AVAX	Avalanche	Avalanche	116.66	103.169	-11.56%	66.07	-43.37%	0.1135	✓	1.15	158.3M	2022-01-21
LPT	Livepeer	Ethereum	41.49	37.1989	-10.34%	24.86	-40.08%	0.0955	✓	1.73	5.2M	2022-01-21
HIVE	Hive	native	1.5055	1.3507	-10.28%	0.906	-39.82%	0.0224	✓	1.31	11.9M	2022-01-21
GITCOIN	GITCOIN		10.58	9.5077	-10.13%	7.826	-26.03%	0.2452	✓	-0.18	129k	2022-01-21
BICO	Biconomy	Ethereum	3.59	3.2332	-9.94%	2.45	-31.75%	0.0103	✓	1.00	11.9M	2022-01-21
ENS	Ethereum Name Service	Ethereum	45.03	40.6334	-9.76%	17.88	-60.29%	0.2880	✓	1.85	10.6M	2022-01-21
CELL	Cellframe	Ethereum	1.31	1.1832	-9.68%	0.8913	-31.96%	0.0044	✓	1.00	196k	2022-01-21
MANA	Decentraland	Ethereum	3.2895	2.9741	-9.59%	2.2219	-32.45%	0.0470	✓	0.85	9.3M	2022-01-21
UOS	Ultra	Ethereum	1.6078	1.4539	-9.57%	0.91734	-42.95%	0.1714	✓	1.01	7.8M	2022-01-21
LRC	Loopring	Ethereum	2.1998	1.9906	-9.51%	0.8678	-60.55%	0.2540	✓	2.00	2.3M	2022-01-21
NAKA	Nakamoto Games	Polygon	1.7654	1.6022	-9.24%	0.5186	-70.62%	0.9776	✓	0.52	8.5M	2022-01-21
GTC	Gitcoin	Ethereum	10.62	9.665	-8.99%	7.97	-24.95%	0.2270	✓	-0.12	4.2M	2022-01-21
CRV	Curve DAO	Ethereum	5.05	4.5985	-8.94%	3.31	-34.46%	0.0603	✓	1.35	28.7M	2022-01-21
STORJ	Storj	Ethereum	1.9655	1.7902	-8.92%	1.1848	-39.72%	0.2133	✓	0.69	1.3M	2022-01-21
XYO	XYO Network	Ethereum	0.036887	0.033725	-8.57%	0.022082	-40.14%	0.1301	✓	1.02	13.9M	2022-01-21
MASK	Mask Network	Ethereum	11.08	10.192	-8.01%	6.49	-41.43%	0.3047	✓	0.51	3.4M	2022-01-21
CVC	Civic	Ethereum	0.3409	0.31386	-7.93%	0.2396	-29.72%	0.0147	✓	0.89	401k	2022-01-21
ZEC	Zcash	Zcash	165.84	152.7103	-7.92%	102.35	-38.28%	0.0084	✓	1.36	13.6M	2022-01-21
OGN	Origin Token	Ethereum	0.634	0.584248	-7.85%	0.352	-44.48%	0.1547	✓	1.22	3.2M	2022-01-21
ENJ	Enjin Coin	Ethereum	2.579	2.3826	-7.62%	1.738	-32.61%	0.0514	✓	0.92	2.8M	2022-01-21
LCX	LCX	Ethereum	0.2119	0.19594	-7.53%	0.0939	-55.69%	0.4055	✓	1.15	4.2M	2022-01-21
CERE	Cere Network	Ethereum	0.0712	0.065937	-7.39%	0.0363	-49.02%	0.2041	✓	1.37	2.7M	2022-01-21
CTSI	Cartesi	Ethereum	0.6893	0.638869	-7.32%	0.4811	-30.20%	0.0710	✓	1.23	6.5M	2022-01-21
OMG	OMG Network	Ethereum	6.5402	6.0679	-7.22%	4.7186	-27.85%	0.0897	✗	1.19	833k	2022-01-21
EWT	Energy Web Token	Ethereum	10.14	9.4137	-7.16%	5.957	-41.25%	0.2725	✓	0.64	455k	2022-01-21
SC	Siacoin	native	0.01601	0.014947	-6.64%	0.01044	-34.79%	0.0933	✓	0.92	1.5M	2022-01-21
IOTA	IOTA	IOTA	1.2709	1.1905	-6.32%	0.857	-32.57%	0.0223	✓	1.07	23.6M	2022-01-21
ZEN	Horizen	Base	68	63.8021	-6.17%	38.94	-42.74%	0.0571	✓	1.52	1.7M	2022-01-21
UMA	UMA	Ethereum	9.46	8.8798	-6.13%	6.6	-30.23%	0.0163	✓	1.09	4.1M	2022-01-21
BAT	Basic Attention	Ethereum	1.1865	1.1165	-5.90%	0.81011	-31.72%	0.1811	✗	1.74	1.6M	2022-01-21
CHZ	Chiliz	Ethereum	0.2856	0.269125	-5.77%	0.198	-30.67%	0.0556	✓	1.26	6.6M	2022-01-21
GODS	Gods Unchained	Ethereum	5.45	5.1448	-5.60%	2.29	-57.98%	0.5218	✓	1.00	6.8M	2022-01-21
TRAC	OriginTrail	Ethereum	1.0889	1.0282	-5.58%	0.6747	-38.04%	0.0153	✓	1.52	3.0M	2022-01-21
DEXE	DeXe	Ethereum	12.18	11.5045	-5.55%	6.72	-44.83%	0.6277	✓	-0.31	5.4M	2022-01-21
API3	Api3	Ethereum	5.04	4.763	-5.50%	4.65	-7.74%	0.2637	✗	1.00	1.8M	2022-01-21
DNT	district0x	Ethereum	0.1365	0.129012	-5.49%	0.0834	-38.90%	0.1251	✓	1.08	508k	2022-01-21
JASMY	JasmyCoin	Ethereum	0.0877	0.082926	-5.44%	0.05552	-36.69%	0.0442	✓	1.24	22.6M	2022-01-21
VSYS	V.SYSTEMS	native	0.0194	0.018354	-5.39%	0.01394	-28.14%	0.1166	✓	0.55	61k	2022-01-21
OXT	Orchid Protocol	Ethereum	0.3774	0.357411	-5.30%	0.2523	-33.15%	0.0248	✓	1.30	6.6M	2022-01-21
SANTOS	Santos FC Fan Token	Binance Smart Chain	3.759	3.5614	-5.26%	2.795	-25.65%	0.0453	✓	1.00	3.6M	2022-01-21
SUPER	SuperVerse	Ethereum	1.21	1.1482	-5.11%	0.73	-39.67%	0.1653	✓	1.00	2.3M	2022-01-21
IMX	Immutable	Ethereum	4.53	4.3029	-5.01%	2.71	-40.18%	0.1747	✓	1.00	2.8M	2022-01-21
ARPA	ARPA	Ethereum	0.1026	0.097475	-5.00%	0.0619	-39.67%	0.0657	✓	1.35	3.3M	2022-01-21
AMP	Amp	Ethereum	0.05029	0.047783	-4.99%	0.0303	-39.75%	0.1832	✓	0.95	16.3M	2022-01-21
MOVR	Moonriver	Base	181.9072	172.9481	-4.93%	95	-47.78%	0.2710	✓	1.14	748k	2022-01-21
YFI	yearn.finance	Ethereum	31,630.71	30,122.69	-4.77%	25,741.64	-18.62%	0.0025	✓	0.54	6.8M	2022-01-21
GT	Gate	Ethereum	6.125	5.8335	-4.76%	6.243	+1.93%	0.3020	✗	0.81	4.7M	2022-01-21
LTC	Litecoin	Litecoin	155.44	148.4794	-4.48%	114.51	-26.33%	0.1426	✗	1.40	60.2M	2022-01-21
CTK	Shentu	Osmosis	1.801	1.7232	-4.32%	1.209	-32.87%	0.0164	✓	1.29	6.8M	2022-01-21
TWT	Trust Wallet	Binance Smart Chain	0.7367	0.705006	-4.30%	0.5619	-23.73%	0.1234	✗	1.22	7.7M	2022-01-21
MINA	Mina Protocol	native	3.31	3.1689	-4.26%	2.9	-12.39%	0.1903	✗	0.97	807k	2022-01-21
PORTO	FC Porto	Binance Smart Chain	3.2372	3.1025	-4.16%	3.11	-3.93%	0.3491	✗	1.21	4.0M	2022-01-21
LAZIO	Lazio Fan Token	Binance Smart Chain	5.0655	4.8557	-4.14%	3.555	-29.82%	0.0813	✗	1.37	5.0M	2022-01-21
ANKR	Ankr Network	Ethereum	0.10602	0.101646	-4.13%	0.07197	-32.12%	0.1887	✓	0.54	143k	2022-01-21
MED	Medibloc	Osmosis	0.05685	0.054506	-4.12%	0.03977	-30.04%	0.0081	✓	1.12	20k	2022-01-21
XVG	Verge	native	0.01724	0.016531	-4.11%	0.01002	-41.88%	0.1619	✓	1.18	2.9M	2022-01-21
ACH	Alchemy Pay	Ethereum	0.060937	0.058451	-4.08%	0.041641	-31.67%	0.0904	✗	1.49	11.0M	2022-01-21
RAD	Radworks	Ethereum	10.02	9.6116	-4.08%	5.68	-43.31%	0.2532	✓	0.95	1.9M	2022-01-21
ATOM	Cosmos Hub	Cosmos	27.39	26.2807	-4.05%	34.64	+26.47%	0.5254	✗	0.87	41.0M	2022-01-21
LSK	Lisk	Ethereum	2.4567	2.3597	-3.95%	1.6672	-32.14%	0.0011	✓	1.20	147k	2022-01-21
XPR	XPR Network	Ethereum	0.0179	0.017204	-3.89%	0.01111	-37.93%	0.0761	✓	1.26	3.6M	2022-01-21
SHIB	Shiba Inu	Ethereum	0.000035	0.000033643	-3.88%	0.00002226	-36.40%	0.1254	✓	1.00	1.9M	2022-01-21
KNC	Kyber Network Crystal	Ethereum	1.3628	1.3101	-3.87%	1.4321	+5.09%	0.3981	✗	1.07	1.5M	2022-01-21
AXS	Axie Infinity	Ethereum	101.56	97.6516	-3.85%	58.39	-42.51%	0.2393	✓	0.96	9.8M	2022-01-21
METRONOME	METRONOME		5.0079	4.8331	-3.49%	3.2277	-35.55%	0.1851	✓	0.76	31k	2022-01-21
KCS	KuCoin	native	21.435	20.6943	-3.46%	16.808	-21.59%	0.2778	✗	1.69	22.7M	2022-01-21
SOL	Solana	Solana	178.45	172.3211	-3.43%	112.32	-37.06%	0.1377	✓	1.01	265.5M	2022-01-21
ORBS	Orbs	Ethereum	0.0865	0.083575	-3.38%	0.0634	-26.71%	0.0403	✗	1.10	22k	2022-01-21
CITY	Manchester City Fan Token	Solana	10.37	10.02	-3.38%	9.4	-9.35%	0.1502	✗	0.74	1.6M	2022-01-21
BEL	Bella Protocol	Ethereum	1.569	1.5186	-3.21%	0.984	-37.28%	0.0556	✓	1.32	5.4M	2022-01-21
FTT	FTX	Ethereum	41.33	40.0426	-3.11%	38.52	-6.80%	0.2668	✗	1.06	23.4M	2022-01-21
XTZ	Tezos	Tezos	4.5418	4.4115	-2.87%	3.3417	-26.42%	0.0960	✗	1.30	5.1M	2022-01-21
XYM	Symbol	native	0.2424	0.235488	-2.85%	0.1639	-32.38%	0.2310	✓	0.46	428k	2022-01-21
POWR	Powerledger	Ethereum	0.4511	0.438362	-2.82%	0.5351	+18.62%	0.6077	✗	1.42	1.6M	2022-01-21
PSG	Paris Saint-Germain Fan Token	Solana	15.79	15.3846	-2.57%	13.42	-15.01%	0.0543	✗	0.66	1.5M	2022-01-21
ETH	Ethereum	Ethereum	3,981.12	3,879.66	-2.55%	2,569.01	-35.47%	0.1070	✓	1.06	768.5M	2022-01-21
COTI	COTI	Ethereum	0.3293	0.320995	-2.52%	0.2921	-11.30%	0.3235	✗	1.45	4.4M	2022-01-21
NANO	nanopay	Base	3.4753	3.3895	-2.47%	2.3265	-33.06%	0.0767	✓	1.04	819k	2022-01-21
LEO	LEO Token	Ethereum	3.5995	3.5111	-2.46%	3.5345	-1.81%	0.0191	✓	-0.09	372k	2022-01-21
XEC	eCash	native	0.00011055	0.000107848	-2.44%	0.00007968	-27.92%	0.0172	✓	0.99	12.0M	2022-01-21
GRT	The Graph	Ethereum	0.6944	0.677653	-2.41%	0.4366	-37.13%	0.0697	✓	1.29	14.9M	2022-01-21
BAND	Band	Ethereum	5.36	5.2312	-2.40%	3.96	-26.12%	0.0618	✗	1.18	2.8M	2022-01-21
NMR	Numeraire	Ethereum	33.08	32.2956	-2.37%	23.31	-29.53%	0.1341	✓	0.67	711k	2022-01-21
TRB	Tellor Tributes	Ethereum	33.76	32.9718	-2.33%	21.23	-37.11%	0.0080	✓	1.50	1.6M	2022-01-21
SKL	SKALE	Ethereum	0.2077	0.203201	-2.17%	0.1206	-41.94%	0.1784	✓	1.19	7.6M	2022-01-21
ZRX	0x Protocol	Ethereum	0.824208	0.806453	-2.15%	0.55846	-32.24%	0.0605	✓	1.07	4.7M	2022-01-21
QTUM	Qtum	Qtum	9.4299	9.2309	-2.11%	6.1225	-35.07%	0.0057	✓	1.45	349k	2022-01-21
DODO	DODO	Ethereum	0.898	0.87911	-2.10%	0.561	-37.53%	0.0261	✓	1.47	9.7M	2022-01-21
BNT	Bancor Network	Ethereum	3.39	3.3189	-2.10%	2.46	-27.43%	0.0168	✓	0.98	1.3M	2022-01-21
DASH	Dash	Dash	135.16	132.4621	-2.00%	105.73	-21.77%	0.1335	✗	1.25	2.2M	2022-01-21
RLC	iExec RLC	Ethereum	3.07	3.009	-1.99%	2	-34.85%	0.0387	✓	1.29	3.2M	2022-01-21
ALGO	Algorand	Algorand	1.3641	1.3371	-1.98%	1.0303	-24.47%	0.0413	✗	1.05	35.5M	2022-01-21
RIF	Rootstock Infrastructure Framework	Ethereum	0.2078	0.203844	-1.90%	0.1474	-29.07%	0.0727	✓	0.87	776k	2022-01-21
AGLD	Adventure Gold	Ethereum	1.6	1.5711	-1.81%	0.97	-39.38%	0.0058	✓	1.70	1.6M	2022-01-21
AUCTION	Bounce	Ethereum	24.51	24.1023	-1.66%	15.55	-36.56%	0.1320	✓	1.06	2.7M	2022-01-21
ASM	Assemble AI	Ethereum	0.0942	0.092645	-1.65%	0.05388	-42.80%	0.1079	✓	1.51	6.4M	2022-01-21
ADA	Cardano	Cardano	1.3279	1.3069	-1.58%	1.1211	-15.57%	0.1419	✗	1.03	128.9M	2022-01-21
WBTC	Wrapped Bitcoin	Ethereum	48,803.20	48,063.25	-1.52%	36,607.80	-24.99%	0.0110	✓	0.98	12k	2022-01-21
JUV	Juventus Fan Token	Solana	8.83	8.6977	-1.50%	6.56	-25.71%	0.0601	✓	0.77	934k	2022-01-21
TKO	Tokocrypto	Binance Smart Chain	1.271	1.2525	-1.46%	0.764	-39.89%	0.2126	✓	0.98	4.4M	2022-01-21
BAR	FC Barcelona Fan Token	Solana	8.79	8.6716	-1.35%	6.31	-28.21%	0.1292	✓	0.66	1.1M	2022-01-21
ATM	Atletico Madrid Fan Token	Solana	7.93	7.8304	-1.26%	5.64	-28.88%	0.1462	✓	0.63	1.1M	2022-01-21
XEM	NEM	native	0.1305	0.128864	-1.25%	0.097	-25.67%	0.0283	✗	1.09	202k	2022-01-21
DKA	dKargo	Ethereum	0.11507	0.113682	-1.21%	0.08324	-27.66%	0.0051	✓	1.10	30k	2022-01-21
SNX	Synthetix	Ethereum	5.53	5.4648	-1.18%	4.17	-24.59%	0.0405	✗	1.08	5.3M	2022-01-21
XMR	Monero	Monero	190.53	188.3527	-1.14%	172.82	-9.30%	0.1876	✗	0.95	2.8M	2022-01-21
KSM	Kusama	Hydration	273.22	270.6282	-0.95%	213.87	-21.72%	0.0753	✗	1.08	1.5M	2022-01-21
TRX	TRON	Tron	0.079046	0.078366	-0.86%	0.061109	-22.69%	0.0284	✗	0.96	787k	2022-01-21
DYDX	dYdX	Cosmos	8.258	8.1881	-0.85%	8.351	+1.13%	0.3996	✗	1.32	635k	2022-01-21
BTC	Bitcoin	Bitcoin	48,608.62	48,204.98	-0.83%	36,456.94	-25.00%	0.0083	✗	1.00	750.8M	2022-01-21
ETC	Ethereum Classic	native	35.67	35.4009	-0.75%	25.95	-27.25%	0.0102	✓	1.04	6.2M	2022-01-21
BCH	Bitcoin Cash	Bitcoin Cash	438.3	435.0209	-0.75%	315.04	-28.12%	0.0259	✓	1.03	14.2M	2022-01-21
CBK	Cobak	Ethereum	2.973	2.9513	-0.73%	2.197	-26.10%	0.0529	✓	0.84	103k	2022-01-21
ASR	AS Roma Fan Token	Solana	3.862	3.8358	-0.68%	3.168	-17.97%	0.0044	✓	0.68	487k	2022-01-21
AAVE	Aave	Ethereum	206.48	205.664	-0.40%	171.09	-17.14%	0.0937	✗	0.97	11.4M	2022-01-21
LINK	Chainlink	Ethereum	19.92	19.8791	-0.21%	17.44	-12.45%	0.2352	✗	1.27	67.0M	2022-01-21
XVS	Venus	Ethereum	15.56	15.5309	-0.19%	9.94	-36.12%	0.1177	✓	1.14	5.7M	2022-01-21
DOT	Polkadot	Polkadot	27.24	27.2044	-0.13%	19.67	-27.79%	0.0326	✗	1.24	75.5M	2022-01-21
BCHSV	Bitcoin Cash SV		123.67	123.6766	+0.01%	95.68	-22.63%	0.0266	✓	0.98	2.8M	2022-01-21
MTL	Metal DAO	Metal L2	2.227	2.2294	+0.11%	1.445	-35.11%	0.1140	✗	1.11	3.4M	2022-01-21
1INCH	1INCH	Ethereum	2.47	2.4727	+0.11%	1.84	-25.51%	0.0231	✗	0.95	4.7M	2022-01-21
QNT	Quant	Ethereum	182.5	182.7728	+0.15%	114.44	-37.29%	0.2051	✗	0.91	12.1M	2022-01-21
OG	OG Fan Token	Solana	4.024	4.0321	+0.20%	3.392	-15.71%	0.0582	✓	0.80	714k	2022-01-21
DOGE	Dogecoin	Dogecoin	0.173188	0.173614	+0.25%	0.142057	-17.98%	0.1154	✓	1.10	5.5M	2022-01-21
XLM	Stellar	Stellar	0.267724	0.268657	+0.35%	0.202862	-24.23%	0.0030	✓	0.99	39.0M	2022-01-21
SUN	Sun Token	Tron	0.022989	0.023094	+0.46%	0.016171	-29.66%	0.0083	✗	1.21	2.0M	2022-01-21
ACM	AC Milan Fan Token	Solana	5.151	5.1764	+0.49%	4.12	-20.02%	0.0463	✗	0.63	936k	2022-01-21
PHA	PHALA	Ethereum	0.357	0.360111	+0.87%	0.271	-24.09%	0.0705	✗	0.74	49k	2022-01-21
ICP	Internet Computer	Ethereum	23.34	23.599	+1.11%	24.19	+3.64%	0.4089	✓	1.34	21.2M	2022-01-21
COMP	Compound	Ethereum	206.65	209.5113	+1.38%	139.37	-32.56%	0.1051	✗	1.05	236k	2022-01-21
SUSHI	Sushi	Ethereum	6.36	6.4682	+1.70%	4.96	-22.01%	0.1125	✓	1.31	13.8M	2022-01-21
FIL	Filecoin	Filecoin	35.63	36.5008	+2.44%	21.98	-38.31%	0.2160	✗	1.01	22.5M	2022-01-21
UNI	Uniswap	Ethereum	16.21	16.7607	+3.40%	12.63	-22.09%	0.0822	✓	1.27	14.1M	2022-01-21

Δ columns are percentage price moves; alpha err and the hit column are in beta-adjusted log-return space, which is what the model actually predicts. “pending” means the horizon has not matured yet. Rows are capped for readability — add &limit=2000 to widen.