2022-02-14 · +30d

gru_s5 · in-sample — the model trained on this date · 150 tokens predicted

These numbers are in-sample. The model was trained on this date, so predicted-vs-actual agreement here is not evidence of skill.

+1d +7d +30d asset cohort only

rank IC

+0.1556

150 of 150 tokens assessed

long-short decile

+6.23%

realised beta-adjusted alpha

direction hit

60.7%

in alpha space · 62.0% on raw price

BTC over horizon

-3.34%

the unhedgeable market factor

Predicted vs actual (150 rows, sorted by pred)

token	name	chain	anchor px	pred px ▾	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d	vol 30d	target
DNT	district0x	Ethereum	0.0819	0.08458	+3.27%	0.0705	-13.92%	0.1405	✗	1.23	195k	2022-03-16
SPELL	Spell	Ethereum	0.00566	0.005818	+2.79%	0.00348	-38.52%	0.4454	✗	2.02	18.8M	2022-03-16
ETH	Ethereum	Ethereum	2,931.01	2,990.11	+2.02%	2,774.89	-5.33%	0.0366	✗	1.12	572.6M	2022-03-16
XVS	Venus	Ethereum	9.58	9.7613	+1.89%	8.55	-10.75%	0.0867	✗	1.35	2.9M	2022-03-16
LCX	LCX	Ethereum	0.0983	0.100035	+1.76%	0.0882	-10.27%	0.0737	✗	1.54	1.1M	2022-03-16
JASMY	JasmyCoin	Ethereum	0.02976	0.030211	+1.51%	0.02106	-29.23%	0.3218	✗	1.15	10.0M	2022-03-16
GODS	Gods Unchained	Ethereum	1.84	1.8667	+1.45%	1.08	-41.30%	0.5072	✗	1.18	1.4M	2022-03-16
ALGO	Algorand	Algorand	0.9001	0.912809	+1.41%	0.7371	-18.11%	0.1760	✗	1.11	26.7M	2022-03-16
OGN	Origin Token	Ethereum	0.364	0.36894	+1.36%	0.447	+22.80%	0.2375	✓	1.34	2.3M	2022-03-16
TKO	Tokocrypto	Binance Smart Chain	0.759	0.768406	+1.24%	0.635	-16.34%	0.1536	✗	1.09	1.6M	2022-03-16
AUCTION	Bounce	Ethereum	15.4	15.5636	+1.06%	13.23	-14.09%	0.1269	✗	1.05	483k	2022-03-16
SOL	Solana	Solana	96.43	97.413	+1.02%	87.82	-8.93%	0.0606	✗	1.27	179.7M	2022-03-16
BCH	Bitcoin Cash	Bitcoin Cash	330.66	333.9489	+0.99%	299.84	-9.32%	0.0738	✗	1.00	8.9M	2022-03-16
CHZ	Chiliz	Ethereum	0.2046	0.206225	+0.79%	0.2037	-0.44%	0.0360	✓	1.42	3.7M	2022-03-16
DKA	dKargo	Ethereum	0.09436	0.095037	+0.72%	0.09466	+0.32%	0.0351	✓	1.15	51k	2022-03-16
QNT	Quant	Ethereum	121.35	122.2187	+0.72%	117.28	-3.35%	0.0069	✓	1.01	7.8M	2022-03-16
XLM	Stellar	Stellar	0.210709	0.211992	+0.61%	0.18936	-10.13%	0.0781	✗	1.03	21.9M	2022-03-16
LRC	Loopring	Ethereum	0.9283	0.933697	+0.58%	0.7151	-22.97%	0.2146	✗	1.54	588k	2022-03-16
KSM	Kusama	Hydration	167.33	168.0637	+0.44%	130.7	-21.89%	0.2108	✗	1.20	930k	2022-03-16
IMX	Immutable	Ethereum	2.29	2.299	+0.39%	1.646	-28.12%	0.3011	✗	0.97	3.2M	2022-03-16
ENS	Ethereum Name Service	Ethereum	17.04	17.1058	+0.39%	14.44	-15.26%	0.1101	✗	1.75	3.7M	2022-03-16
SC	Siacoin	native	0.01033	0.010369	+0.38%	0.00895	-13.36%	0.1122	✗	1.03	483k	2022-03-16
ZRX	0x Protocol	Ethereum	0.593972	0.596192	+0.37%	0.511443	-13.89%	0.1141	✗	1.16	3.5M	2022-03-16
PHA	PHALA	Ethereum	0.285	0.285969	+0.34%	0.228	-20.00%	0.1943	✗	0.95	77k	2022-03-16
CVC	Civic	Ethereum	0.2886	0.289541	+0.33%	0.2713	-5.99%	0.0267	✗	1.13	538k	2022-03-16
AMP	Amp	Ethereum	0.02945	0.029538	+0.30%	0.02522	-14.36%	0.1292	✗	0.85	6.2M	2022-03-16
CTSI	Cartesi	Ethereum	0.4478	0.449025	+0.27%	0.3185	-28.87%	0.2925	✗	1.50	2.0M	2022-03-16
QTUM	Qtum	Qtum	6.5803	6.5966	+0.25%	6.0075	-8.71%	0.0445	✗	1.45	130k	2022-03-16
BEL	Bella Protocol	Ethereum	0.909	0.910818	+0.20%	0.819	-9.90%	0.0599	✗	1.36	2.4M	2022-03-16
UNI	Uniswap	Ethereum	10.62	10.6379	+0.17%	9.09	-14.41%	0.1120	✗	1.33	12.5M	2022-03-16
ANKR	Ankr Network	Ethereum	0.07495	0.075053	+0.14%	0.07308	-2.49%	0.0013	✓	0.74	84k	2022-03-16
MED	Medibloc	Osmosis	0.0437	0.043706	+0.01%	0.04049	-7.35%	0.0362	✗	1.19	30k	2022-03-16
AVAX	Avalanche	Avalanche	81.84	81.8244	-0.02%	74.12	-9.43%	0.0504	✓	1.43	98.9M	2022-03-16
DOT	Polkadot	Polkadot	18.7	18.6959	-0.02%	19.04	+1.82%	0.0645	✗	1.36	34.9M	2022-03-16
ATM	Atletico Madrid Fan Token	Solana	5.47	5.4661	-0.07%	6.66	+21.76%	0.2244	✗	0.79	404k	2022-03-16
MASK	Mask Network	Ethereum	5.66	5.6549	-0.09%	4.14	-26.86%	0.2757	✓	1.06	590k	2022-03-16
KCS	KuCoin	native	19.607	19.587	-0.10%	18.299	-6.67%	0.0232	✓	1.32	10.2M	2022-03-16
NANO	nanopay	Base	2.1432	2.1399	-0.15%	2.3037	+7.49%	0.1162	✗	1.25	436k	2022-03-16
STORJ	Storj	Ethereum	1.1301	1.1267	-0.30%	1.053	-6.82%	0.0327	✓	1.03	211k	2022-03-16
LSK	Lisk	Ethereum	1.7556	1.7495	-0.35%	2.0762	+18.26%	0.2098	✗	1.14	67k	2022-03-16
TRX	TRON	Tron	0.064484	0.064226	-0.40%	0.061066	-5.30%	0.0205	✓	0.88	327k	2022-03-16
DOGE	Dogecoin	Dogecoin	0.145821	0.145234	-0.40%	0.116967	-19.79%	0.1817	✓	1.02	6.7M	2022-03-16
DEXE	DeXe	Ethereum	7.22	7.1886	-0.44%	6.02	-16.62%	0.1675	✓	0.29	1.2M	2022-03-16
LINK	Chainlink	Ethereum	15.9	15.8288	-0.45%	14.68	-7.67%	0.0347	✓	1.20	70.2M	2022-03-16
BTC	Bitcoin	Bitcoin	42,548.71	42,354.79	-0.46%	41,127.97	-3.34%	0.0046	✓	1.00	642.7M	2022-03-16
CTK	Shentu	Osmosis	1.259	1.2516	-0.59%	1.181	-6.20%	0.0161	✓	1.23	3.2M	2022-03-16
ZEN	Horizen	Base	41.27	41.0136	-0.62%	38.67	-6.30%	0.0058	✓	1.56	400k	2022-03-16
COTI	COTI	Ethereum	0.2742	0.272496	-0.62%	0.2051	-25.20%	0.2310	✓	1.57	4.2M	2022-03-16
DASH	Dash	Dash	103.84	103.1644	-0.65%	98.4	-5.24%	0.0094	✓	1.12	2.0M	2022-03-16
HIVE	Hive	native	1.0452	1.0382	-0.67%	0.8746	-16.32%	0.1153	✓	1.65	1.9M	2022-03-16
LPT	Livepeer	Ethereum	26.44	26.2595	-0.68%	24.32	-8.02%	0.0242	✓	1.55	2.0M	2022-03-16
LTC	Litecoin	Litecoin	124.62	123.7163	-0.73%	111.35	-10.65%	0.0627	✓	1.26	34.8M	2022-03-16
XEM	NEM	native	0.1094	0.108607	-0.73%	0.099	-9.51%	0.0568	✓	1.06	39k	2022-03-16
MTL	Metal DAO	Metal L2	1.61	1.5979	-0.75%	1.529	-5.03%	0.0043	✓	1.17	1.9M	2022-03-16
RLC	iExec RLC	Ethereum	1.94	1.9254	-0.75%	1.81	-6.70%	0.0173	✓	1.31	2.2M	2022-03-16
UOS	Ultra	Ethereum	1.039	1.0311	-0.76%	1.174	+12.99%	0.1704	✗	1.20	2.3M	2022-03-16
JUV	Juventus Fan Token	Solana	6.76	6.7055	-0.81%	6.49	-3.99%	0.0022	✓	0.90	426k	2022-03-16
LUNA	Terra	Terra 2	53.94	53.4652	-0.88%	89.17	+65.31%	0.5602	✗	1.43	6.9M	2022-03-16
AXS	Axie Infinity	Ethereum	56.82	56.3019	-0.91%	50.45	-11.21%	0.0674	✓	1.25	8.8M	2022-03-16
RAD	Radworks	Ethereum	5.39	5.3297	-1.12%	4.47	-17.07%	0.1390	✓	1.09	682k	2022-03-16
NMR	Numeraire	Ethereum	28.49	28.1627	-1.15%	28.13	-1.26%	0.0314	✗	0.96	1.2M	2022-03-16
BAT	Basic Attention	Ethereum	0.80709	0.79753	-1.18%	0.82098	+1.72%	0.0804	✗	1.51	299k	2022-03-16
ASR	AS Roma Fan Token	Solana	3.225	3.1866	-1.19%	3.572	+10.76%	0.1420	✗	0.82	218k	2022-03-16
GRT	The Graph	Ethereum	0.4039	0.399076	-1.19%	0.455	+12.65%	0.1762	✗	1.33	8.7M	2022-03-16
ADA	Cardano	Cardano	1.05	1.0373	-1.21%	0.8393	-20.07%	0.1736	✓	1.13	115.7M	2022-03-16
TWT	Trust Wallet	Binance Smart Chain	0.5481	0.540958	-1.30%	0.7347	+34.04%	0.3523	✗	1.36	2.4M	2022-03-16
1INCH	1INCH	Ethereum	1.7	1.6771	-1.35%	1.51	-11.18%	0.0620	✓	1.26	1.3M	2022-03-16
XVG	Verge	native	0.01132	0.011164	-1.38%	0.009	-20.49%	0.1679	✓	1.40	1.2M	2022-03-16
OXT	Orchid Protocol	Ethereum	0.268	0.264198	-1.42%	0.2435	-9.14%	0.0456	✓	1.06	1.6M	2022-03-16
XEC	eCash	native	0.00008178	0.000080619	-1.42%	0.00008028	-1.83%	0.0345	✗	1.14	5.1M	2022-03-16
GT	Gate	Ethereum	6.6557	6.5585	-1.46%	6.5078	-2.22%	0.0222	✗	0.88	3.9M	2022-03-16
BNT	Bancor Network	Ethereum	2.56	2.5213	-1.51%	2.32	-9.38%	0.0484	✓	1.03	406k	2022-03-16
DODO	DODO	Ethereum	0.502	0.494288	-1.54%	0.399	-20.52%	0.1654	✓	1.44	4.5M	2022-03-16
ZEC	Zcash	Zcash	120.62	118.7335	-1.56%	154.1	+27.76%	0.3021	✗	1.22	7.2M	2022-03-16
ORBS	Orbs	Ethereum	0.0708	0.069686	-1.57%	0.0732	+3.39%	0.0870	✗	1.11	19k	2022-03-16
BFC	Bifrost	Ethereum	0.1719	0.168977	-1.70%	0.1473	-14.31%	0.0820	✓	1.63	34k	2022-03-16
AGLD	Adventure Gold	Ethereum	1.12	1.1009	-1.71%	1.186	+5.89%	0.1212	✗	1.38	694k	2022-03-16
WBTC	Wrapped Bitcoin	Ethereum	42,156.20	41,425.75	-1.73%	41,103.10	-2.50%	0.0253	✗	0.98	51k	2022-03-16
ENJ	Enjin Coin	Ethereum	1.753	1.7221	-1.76%	1.428	-18.54%	0.1424	✓	1.32	1.1M	2022-03-16
CBK	Cobak	Ethereum	2.341	2.2995	-1.77%	2.135	-8.80%	0.0367	✓	1.10	21k	2022-03-16
DYDX	dYdX	Cosmos	7.402	7.2707	-1.77%	4.733	-36.06%	0.3954	✓	1.00	407k	2022-03-16
AAVE	Aave	Ethereum	161.11	158.2369	-1.78%	141.71	-12.04%	0.0624	✓	1.41	8.1M	2022-03-16
TRAC	OriginTrail	Ethereum	0.6376	0.626012	-1.82%	0.4194	-34.22%	0.3482	✓	1.54	718k	2022-03-16
XYO	XYO Network	Ethereum	0.021238	0.020844	-1.85%	0.01695	-20.19%	0.1652	✓	1.22	2.5M	2022-03-16
CITY	Manchester City Fan Token	Solana	11.42	11.1957	-1.96%	11.83	+3.59%	0.0794	✗	0.71	706k	2022-03-16
ETC	Ethereum Classic	native	31.42	30.8003	-1.97%	27.36	-12.92%	0.0828	✓	1.05	5.1M	2022-03-16
BAR	FC Barcelona Fan Token	Solana	6.47	6.3382	-2.04%	8.59	+32.77%	0.3324	✗	0.84	463k	2022-03-16
VSYS	V.SYSTEMS	native	0.01366	0.013378	-2.07%	0.01185	-13.25%	0.0951	✓	0.77	13k	2022-03-16
XPR	XPR Network	Ethereum	0.01219	0.011925	-2.17%	0.01117	-8.37%	0.0127	✓	1.55	1.7M	2022-03-16
LAZIO	Lazio Fan Token	Binance Smart Chain	3.5401	3.4601	-2.26%	4.461	+26.01%	0.2907	✗	1.08	2.5M	2022-03-16
BTTC	BTTC		0.00000213	0.00000208	-2.35%	0.00000185	-13.15%	0.0832	✓	1.00	14.3M	2022-03-16
IOTA	IOTA	IOTA	0.8459	0.825925	-2.36%	0.7237	-14.45%	0.0941	✓	1.12	12.4M	2022-03-16
OMG	OMG Network	Ethereum	4.6155	4.501	-2.48%	4.1763	-9.52%	0.0333	✓	1.22	349k	2022-03-16
XYM	Symbol	native	0.1748	0.170459	-2.48%	0.1357	-22.37%	0.2037	✓	0.72	388k	2022-03-16
BAND	Band	Ethereum	4.21	4.1032	-2.54%	3.642	-13.49%	0.0772	✓	1.24	1.9M	2022-03-16
COMP	Compound	Ethereum	123.15	119.983	-2.57%	110	-10.68%	0.0428	✓	1.30	59k	2022-03-16
ARPA	ARPA	Ethereum	0.0868	0.084559	-2.58%	0.0703	-19.01%	0.1379	✓	1.38	674k	2022-03-16
GITCOIN	GITCOIN		7.128	6.9381	-2.66%	5.736	-19.53%	0.1803	✓	0.29	38k	2022-03-16
ACM	AC Milan Fan Token	Solana	4.631	4.5052	-2.72%	4.679	+1.04%	0.0665	✗	0.84	379k	2022-03-16
SHIB	Shiba Inu	Ethereum	0.00002958	0.000028745	-2.82%	0.00002273	-23.16%	0.1868	✓	1.41	2.3M	2022-03-16
ORCA	Orca	Solana	3.09	3.0018	-2.85%	2.1	-32.04%	0.3233	✓	1.00	914k	2022-03-16
OG	OG Fan Token	Solana	3.33	3.234	-2.88%	3.975	+19.37%	0.2356	✗	0.86	502k	2022-03-16
SANTOS	Santos FC Fan Token	Binance Smart Chain	2.793	2.7121	-2.90%	6.401	+129.18%	0.9048	✗	1.36	1.1M	2022-03-16
BCHSV	Bitcoin Cash SV		93.76	91.0232	-2.92%	78.23	-16.56%	0.1207	✓	0.90	1.2M	2022-03-16
FIL	Filecoin	Filecoin	20.75	20.1434	-2.92%	17.42	-16.05%	0.1041	✓	1.21	10.5M	2022-03-16
RIF	Rootstock Infrastructure Framework	Ethereum	0.1626	0.157784	-2.96%	0.1519	-6.58%	0.0028	✓	1.04	470k	2022-03-16
EWT	Energy Web Token	Ethereum	6.017	5.8325	-3.07%	5.005	-16.82%	0.1236	✓	0.87	72k	2022-03-16
FIDA	Bonfida	Solana	2.355	2.2811	-3.14%	1.611	-31.59%	0.3138	✓	1.00	84k	2022-03-16
FTT	FTX	Ethereum	44.85	43.4257	-3.18%	42.72	-4.75%	0.0234	✓	1.17	31.2M	2022-03-16
MANA	Decentraland	Ethereum	2.8438	2.751	-3.26%	2.4922	-12.36%	0.0634	✓	1.04	2.8M	2022-03-16
TRB	Tellor Tributes	Ethereum	21.2	20.505	-3.28%	19.73	-6.93%	0.0135	✓	1.53	375k	2022-03-16
GTC	Gitcoin	Ethereum	7.17	6.9182	-3.51%	5.8	-19.11%	0.1657	✓	0.31	1.7M	2022-03-16
POWR	Powerledger	Ethereum	0.5644	0.54455	-3.52%	0.5055	-10.44%	0.0387	✓	1.05	1.0M	2022-03-16
SNX	Synthetix	Ethereum	4.58	4.4095	-3.72%	4.216	-7.95%	0.0031	✓	1.23	2.6M	2022-03-16
ASM	Assemble AI	Ethereum	0.05226	0.050311	-3.73%	0.04945	-5.38%	0.0304	✓	1.40	1.2M	2022-03-16
ACH	Alchemy Pay	Ethereum	0.046133	0.04438	-3.80%	0.040705	-11.77%	0.0448	✓	1.22	6.5M	2022-03-16
METRONOME	METRONOME		3.4806	3.3462	-3.86%	2.1072	-39.46%	0.4329	✓	0.87	30k	2022-03-16
XTZ	Tezos	Tezos	3.9473	3.7948	-3.86%	3.1013	-21.43%	0.1576	✓	1.30	2.4M	2022-03-16
MINA	Mina Protocol	native	2.68	2.576	-3.88%	1.86	-30.60%	0.2819	✓	1.29	390k	2022-03-16
MOVR	Moonriver	Base	83.68	80.4164	-3.90%	51.8123	-38.08%	0.3898	✓	1.47	315k	2022-03-16
XMR	Monero	Monero	176.38	169.4853	-3.91%	189.66	+7.53%	0.1472	✗	1.02	1.2M	2022-03-16
API3	Api3	Ethereum	4.35	4.1795	-3.92%	4.743	+9.03%	0.1374	✗	0.32	2.0M	2022-03-16
DIA	DIA	Ethereum	0.94	0.902784	-3.96%	0.92	-2.13%	0.0529	✗	1.00	271k	2022-03-16
AVT	Aventus	Ethereum	2.84	2.7263	-4.00%	2.28	-19.72%	0.1448	✓	1.00	693k	2022-03-16
PEOPLE	ConstitutionDAO	Ethereum	0.0688	0.066002	-4.07%	0.0619	-10.03%	0.0039	✓	1.78	64.3M	2022-03-16
DUSK	DUSK	Ethereum	0.4399	0.421825	-4.11%	0.3368	-23.44%	0.1645	✓	1.79	26.1M	2022-03-16
KNC	Kyber Network Crystal	Ethereum	1.9224	1.8432	-4.12%	3.0607	+59.21%	0.5271	✗	0.59	2.8M	2022-03-16
SKL	SKALE	Ethereum	0.1573	0.150808	-4.13%	0.128	-18.63%	0.1179	✓	1.36	3.2M	2022-03-16
PSG	Paris Saint-Germain Fan Token	Solana	17.92	17.1567	-4.26%	13.13	-26.73%	0.2432	✓	0.72	1.1M	2022-03-16
SUPER	SuperVerse	Ethereum	0.94	0.899014	-4.36%	0.62	-34.04%	0.3049	✓	1.96	1.0M	2022-03-16
SUN	Sun Token	Tron	0.016621	0.015872	-4.51%	0.011683	-29.71%	0.2670	✓	1.16	535k	2022-03-16
BICO	Biconomy	Ethereum	1.81	1.7273	-4.57%	1.322	-26.96%	0.2205	✓	1.38	2.9M	2022-03-16
PORTO	FC Porto	Binance Smart Chain	3.9552	3.7741	-4.58%	4.0815	+3.19%	0.1114	✗	0.97	2.3M	2022-03-16
CRV	Curve DAO	Ethereum	2.91	2.7755	-4.62%	2.091	-28.14%	0.2344	✓	1.44	18.3M	2022-03-16
STX	Stacks	native	1.47	1.3998	-4.78%	1.28	-12.93%	0.0555	✓	1.00	1.0M	2022-03-16
ATOM	Cosmos Hub	Cosmos	27.16	25.8291	-4.90%	28.97	+6.66%	0.1528	✗	1.12	71.8M	2022-03-16
YFI	yearn.finance	Ethereum	23,089.90	21,916.17	-5.08%	19,215.35	-16.78%	0.0995	✓	0.94	7.6M	2022-03-16
ICP	Internet Computer	Ethereum	20.74	19.6464	-5.27%	16.49	-20.49%	0.1357	✓	1.16	24.7M	2022-03-16
ASTR	Astar	Ethereum	0.114	0.107894	-5.36%	0.105	-7.89%	0.0068	✓	1.00	71k	2022-03-16
LEO	LEO Token	Ethereum	5.8399	5.5093	-5.66%	6.0499	+3.60%	0.1050	✗	0.33	430k	2022-03-16
CELL	Cellframe	Ethereum	1.2512	1.18	-5.69%	1.413	+12.93%	0.2336	✗	1.57	123k	2022-03-16
SUSHI	Sushi	Ethereum	4.07	3.8326	-5.83%	3.12	-23.34%	0.1586	✓	1.39	8.0M	2022-03-16
NCT	PolySwarm	Ethereum	0.04361	0.040492	-7.15%	0.03622	-16.95%	0.0869	✓	0.72	2.6M	2022-03-16
UMA	UMA	Ethereum	6	5.5627	-7.29%	7.808	+30.13%	0.3743	✗	1.04	1.9M	2022-03-16
CERE	Cere Network	Ethereum	0.0338	0.031256	-7.53%	0.02474	-26.80%	0.1831	✓	1.49	490k	2022-03-16
CWEB	Coinweb	Ethereum	0.028657	0.026402	-7.87%	0.017177	-40.06%	0.3854	✓	1.31	102k	2022-03-16
NAKA	Nakamoto Games	Polygon	0.545	0.499276	-8.39%	0.3835	-29.63%	0.1989	✓	1.91	1.8M	2022-03-16
PRO	Propy	Ethereum	2.23	2.0345	-8.77%	1.46	-34.53%	0.2642	✓	1.99	923k	2022-03-16
POKT	Pocket Network	Ethereum	1.226	1.1141	-9.13%	0.7108	-42.02%	0.4196	✓	0.88	1.6M	2022-03-16
GLMR	Moonbeam	Base	4.666	4.0599	-12.99%	2.572	-44.88%	0.4252	✓	0.92	709k	2022-03-16

Δ columns are percentage price moves; alpha err and the hit column are in beta-adjusted log-return space, which is what the model actually predicts. “pending” means the horizon has not matured yet. Rows are capped for readability — add &limit=2000 to widen.