2022-02-12 · +30d

gru_s5 · in-sample — the model trained on this date · 150 tokens predicted

These numbers are in-sample. The model was trained on this date, so predicted-vs-actual agreement here is not evidence of skill.

+1d +7d +30d asset cohort only

rank IC

+0.1515

150 of 150 tokens assessed

long-short decile

+2.73%

realised beta-adjusted alpha

direction hit

61.3%

in alpha space · 67.3% on raw price

BTC over horizon

-6.09%

the unhedgeable market factor

Predicted vs actual (150 rows, sorted by pred)

token	name	chain	anchor px	pred px ▴	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d	vol 30d	target
GLMR	Moonbeam	Base	4.904	4.2302	-13.74%	2.368	-51.71%	0.5225	✓	0.92	909k	2022-03-14
POKT	Pocket Network	Ethereum	1.2939	1.1712	-9.48%	0.7046	-45.54%	0.4520	✓	0.90	1.8M	2022-03-14
PRO	Propy	Ethereum	2.22	2.0223	-8.90%	1.43	-35.59%	0.2215	✓	1.99	1.1M	2022-03-14
NAKA	Nakamoto Games	Polygon	0.6015	0.549302	-8.68%	0.3874	-35.59%	0.2300	✓	1.90	1.8M	2022-03-14
CWEB	Coinweb	Ethereum	0.028632	0.026383	-7.85%	0.021474	-25.00%	0.1248	✓	1.29	111k	2022-03-14
UMA	UMA	Ethereum	6.32	5.831	-7.74%	7.574	+19.84%	0.3229	✗	0.98	1.9M	2022-03-14
NCT	PolySwarm	Ethereum	0.04741	0.043887	-7.43%	0.03625	-23.54%	0.1457	✓	0.72	4.4M	2022-03-14
CERE	Cere Network	Ethereum	0.0322	0.030034	-6.73%	0.0228	-29.19%	0.1833	✓	1.47	490k	2022-03-14
CELL	Cellframe	Ethereum	1.2471	1.1688	-6.28%	1.4082	+12.92%	0.2861	✗	1.59	119k	2022-03-14
SUSHI	Sushi	Ethereum	4.15	3.8979	-6.07%	2.9	-30.12%	0.2087	✓	1.39	8.0M	2022-03-14
LEO	LEO Token	Ethereum	5.9446	5.5977	-5.84%	5.8951	-0.83%	0.0713	✗	0.31	447k	2022-03-14
ASTR	Astar	Ethereum	0.116	0.10939	-5.70%	0.104	-10.34%	0.0123	✓	1.00	72k	2022-03-14
ATOM	Cosmos Hub	Cosmos	27.07	25.6403	-5.28%	26.83	-0.89%	0.1169	✗	1.14	71.8M	2022-03-14
YFI	yearn.finance	Ethereum	23,131.85	21,938.27	-5.16%	18,523.08	-19.92%	0.1092	✓	0.96	7.8M	2022-03-14
ICP	Internet Computer	Ethereum	20.07	19.0452	-5.11%	16.18	-19.38%	0.0898	✓	1.17	25.0M	2022-03-14
STX	Stacks	native	1.52	1.4446	-4.96%	1.28	-15.79%	0.0582	✓	1.00	1.1M	2022-03-14
PSG	Paris Saint-Germain Fan Token	Solana	18.05	17.1582	-4.94%	13.26	-26.54%	0.2129	✓	0.71	984k	2022-03-14
BICO	Biconomy	Ethereum	1.91	1.8171	-4.87%	1.236	-35.29%	0.2982	✓	1.39	2.9M	2022-03-14
ARPA	ARPA	Ethereum	0.0956	0.091338	-4.46%	0.0663	-30.65%	0.2329	✓	1.39	585k	2022-03-14
PORTO	FC Porto	Binance Smart Chain	3.7974	3.6304	-4.40%	3.6677	-3.42%	0.0709	✗	0.97	2.2M	2022-03-14
CRV	Curve DAO	Ethereum	2.87	2.744	-4.39%	1.952	-31.99%	0.2513	✓	1.42	19.1M	2022-03-14
SNX	Synthetix	Ethereum	4.89	4.6774	-4.35%	3.965	-18.92%	0.0876	✓	1.24	2.6M	2022-03-14
XTZ	Tezos	Tezos	4.109	3.9358	-4.21%	3.0001	-26.99%	0.1893	✓	1.31	2.4M	2022-03-14
DIA	DIA	Ethereum	0.96	0.919937	-4.17%	0.89	-7.29%	0.0297	✓	1.00	277k	2022-03-14
DUSK	DUSK	Ethereum	0.4544	0.435514	-4.16%	0.3117	-31.40%	0.2220	✓	1.79	32.6M	2022-03-14
SUN	Sun Token	Tron	0.015897	0.015239	-4.14%	0.01177	-25.96%	0.1848	✓	1.17	630k	2022-03-14
PEOPLE	ConstitutionDAO	Ethereum	0.0682	0.065392	-4.12%	0.0558	-18.18%	0.0489	✓	1.75	57.0M	2022-03-14
KNC	Kyber Network Crystal	Ethereum	1.8422	1.7664	-4.12%	2.9	+57.42%	0.5344	✗	0.62	2.9M	2022-03-14
METRONOME	METRONOME		3.527	3.3859	-4.00%	2.033	-42.36%	0.4547	✓	0.88	30k	2022-03-14
ASM	Assemble AI	Ethereum	0.05601	0.053773	-3.99%	0.04611	-17.68%	0.0646	✓	1.42	1.2M	2022-03-14
SUPER	SuperVerse	Ethereum	0.94	0.90253	-3.99%	0.58	-38.30%	0.3190	✓	1.96	1.1M	2022-03-14
XMR	Monero	Monero	173.82	166.9605	-3.95%	185.79	+6.89%	0.1726	✗	1.05	1.3M	2022-03-14
AVT	Aventus	Ethereum	2.7	2.5957	-3.86%	2.3	-14.81%	0.0582	✓	1.00	779k	2022-03-14
GTC	Gitcoin	Ethereum	7.78	7.4834	-3.81%	5.44	-30.08%	0.2956	✓	0.37	1.7M	2022-03-14
POWR	Powerledger	Ethereum	0.5785	0.55651	-3.80%	0.4889	-15.49%	0.0632	✓	1.06	1.1M	2022-03-14
API3	Api3	Ethereum	4.07	3.9196	-3.69%	4.765	+17.08%	0.2164	✗	0.34	1.8M	2022-03-14
MOVR	Moonriver	Base	85.8439	82.72	-3.64%	46.9295	-45.33%	0.4764	✓	1.44	315k	2022-03-14
TRB	Tellor Tributes	Ethereum	22.54	21.747	-3.52%	18.64	-17.30%	0.0552	✓	1.58	383k	2022-03-14
GITCOIN	GITCOIN		7.781	7.5074	-3.52%	5.436	-30.14%	0.3006	✓	0.35	38k	2022-03-14
RIF	Rootstock Infrastructure Framework	Ethereum	0.1672	0.161339	-3.51%	0.1527	-8.67%	0.0108	✓	1.05	470k	2022-03-14
FTT	FTX	Ethereum	44.18	42.6503	-3.46%	41.47	-6.13%	0.0462	✗	1.18	32.3M	2022-03-14
ACH	Alchemy Pay	Ethereum	0.044288	0.042782	-3.40%	0.039855	-10.01%	0.0058	✓	1.22	8.4M	2022-03-14
ACM	AC Milan Fan Token	Solana	4.786	4.6238	-3.39%	4.541	-5.12%	0.0347	✗	0.84	348k	2022-03-14
FIDA	Bonfida	Solana	2.404	2.3244	-3.31%	1.61	-33.03%	0.3044	✓	1.00	68k	2022-03-14
MANA	Decentraland	Ethereum	2.9115	2.8175	-3.23%	2.3068	-20.77%	0.1366	✓	1.01	2.8M	2022-03-14
OG	OG Fan Token	Solana	3.312	3.2084	-3.13%	4.071	+22.92%	0.2943	✗	0.90	502k	2022-03-14
BCHSV	Bitcoin Cash SV		94.11	91.1676	-3.13%	75.63	-19.64%	0.1301	✓	0.90	1.3M	2022-03-14
ORCA	Orca	Solana	3.03	2.9378	-3.04%	2	-33.99%	0.3217	✓	1.00	1.4M	2022-03-14
SHIB	Shiba Inu	Ethereum	0.0000292	0.000028366	-2.86%	0.00002203	-24.55%	0.1637	✓	1.42	1.8M	2022-03-14
SANTOS	Santos FC Fan Token	Binance Smart Chain	2.76	2.6825	-2.81%	5.312	+92.46%	0.7682	✗	1.35	1.1M	2022-03-14
BAND	Band	Ethereum	4.27	4.1513	-2.78%	3.366	-21.17%	0.1314	✓	1.25	1.9M	2022-03-14
IOTA	IOTA	IOTA	0.8744	0.851159	-2.66%	0.7121	-18.56%	0.1114	✓	1.07	12.7M	2022-03-14
BTTC	BTTC		0.00000217	0.000002112	-2.66%	0.00000175	-19.35%	0.1254	✓	1.00	14.3M	2022-03-14
FIL	Filecoin	Filecoin	20.86	20.3242	-2.57%	17.46	-16.30%	0.0758	✓	1.21	10.8M	2022-03-14
OMG	OMG Network	Ethereum	4.7989	4.6781	-2.52%	4.0362	-15.89%	0.0700	✓	1.24	399k	2022-03-14
PHA	PHALA	Ethereum	0.338	0.329797	-2.43%	0.228	-32.54%	0.3098	✓	0.94	76k	2022-03-14
MINA	Mina Protocol	native	2.5	2.4402	-2.39%	1.67	-33.20%	0.2975	✓	1.30	390k	2022-03-14
VSYS	V.SYSTEMS	native	0.01362	0.013296	-2.38%	0.01174	-13.80%	0.0753	✓	0.78	13k	2022-03-14
SKL	SKALE	Ethereum	0.1393	0.136027	-2.35%	0.1186	-14.86%	0.0522	✓	1.35	3.2M	2022-03-14
COMP	Compound	Ethereum	127.26	124.2727	-2.35%	99.59	-21.74%	0.1407	✓	1.29	59k	2022-03-14
EWT	Energy Web Token	Ethereum	5.916	5.7775	-2.34%	4.77	-19.37%	0.1356	✓	0.89	72k	2022-03-14
XPR	XPR Network	Ethereum	0.01276	0.012461	-2.34%	0.01143	-10.42%	0.0107	✓	1.55	1.7M	2022-03-14
BFC	Bifrost	Ethereum	0.18496	0.180631	-2.34%	0.1444	-21.93%	0.1219	✓	1.62	40k	2022-03-14
WBTC	Wrapped Bitcoin	Ethereum	42,568.00	41,613.05	-2.24%	39,373.20	-7.51%	0.0055	✓	0.97	41k	2022-03-14
BAR	FC Barcelona Fan Token	Solana	6.4	6.2592	-2.20%	8.06	+25.94%	0.3050	✗	0.83	428k	2022-03-14
CITY	Manchester City Fan Token	Solana	11.03	10.7882	-2.19%	11.32	+2.63%	0.0931	✗	0.72	660k	2022-03-14
NMR	Numeraire	Ethereum	30.19	29.5459	-2.13%	27.37	-9.34%	0.0161	✓	0.96	830k	2022-03-14
LAZIO	Lazio Fan Token	Binance Smart Chain	3.5079	3.4347	-2.09%	4.315	+23.01%	0.2986	✗	1.12	2.5M	2022-03-14
XYO	XYO Network	Ethereum	0.021888	0.02144	-2.05%	0.01619	-26.03%	0.2039	✓	1.23	2.4M	2022-03-14
ORBS	Orbs	Ethereum	0.0717	0.070242	-2.03%	0.06877	-4.09%	0.0482	✗	1.10	17k	2022-03-14
ETC	Ethereum Classic	native	31.67	31.0269	-2.03%	25.92	-18.16%	0.1132	✓	1.06	4.9M	2022-03-14
CBK	Cobak	Ethereum	2.354	2.3065	-2.02%	2.098	-10.88%	0.0276	✓	1.07	22k	2022-03-14
GT	Gate	Ethereum	6.758	6.6219	-2.01%	6.346	-6.10%	0.0142	✓	0.90	4.0M	2022-03-14
ENJ	Enjin Coin	Ethereum	1.812	1.7763	-1.97%	1.327	-26.77%	0.2093	✓	1.31	1.1M	2022-03-14
AAVE	Aave	Ethereum	162.52	159.4273	-1.90%	118.38	-27.16%	0.2091	✓	1.41	9.3M	2022-03-14
XYM	Symbol	native	0.1736	0.170544	-1.76%	0.1322	-23.85%	0.2096	✓	0.72	406k	2022-03-14
ASR	AS Roma Fan Token	Solana	3.162	3.1097	-1.65%	3.453	+9.20%	0.1557	✗	0.81	212k	2022-03-14
TRAC	OriginTrail	Ethereum	0.6501	0.639954	-1.56%	0.3858	-40.66%	0.4087	✓	1.55	743k	2022-03-14
AGLD	Adventure Gold	Ethereum	1.12	1.1026	-1.56%	0.942	-15.89%	0.0693	✓	1.40	655k	2022-03-14
ADA	Cardano	Cardano	1.0596	1.0452	-1.36%	0.8028	-24.24%	0.1933	✓	1.12	115.7M	2022-03-14
XVG	Verge	native	0.01149	0.011335	-1.35%	0.00916	-20.28%	0.1251	✓	1.40	1.2M	2022-03-14
TWT	Trust Wallet	Binance Smart Chain	0.562	0.554635	-1.31%	0.6427	+14.36%	0.2305	✗	1.32	2.5M	2022-03-14
BNT	Bancor Network	Ethereum	2.56	2.5266	-1.31%	2.18	-14.84%	0.0827	✓	1.03	431k	2022-03-14
GRT	The Graph	Ethereum	0.4191	0.414051	-1.20%	0.3655	-12.79%	0.0405	✓	1.34	8.7M	2022-03-14
OXT	Orchid Protocol	Ethereum	0.2514	0.248438	-1.18%	0.2384	-5.17%	0.0274	✗	1.09	1.6M	2022-03-14
XEM	NEM	native	0.1086	0.10733	-1.17%	0.0947	-12.80%	0.0588	✓	1.06	36k	2022-03-14
1INCH	1INCH	Ethereum	1.69	1.6703	-1.17%	1.336	-20.95%	0.1441	✓	1.26	1.4M	2022-03-14
RAD	Radworks	Ethereum	5.34	5.2779	-1.16%	4.39	-17.79%	0.1183	✓	1.05	682k	2022-03-14
DEXE	DeXe	Ethereum	7.93	7.8398	-1.14%	5.85	-26.23%	0.2737	✓	0.30	1.1M	2022-03-14
XEC	eCash	native	0.0000823	0.000081373	-1.13%	0.00007592	-7.75%	0.0035	✓	1.16	5.6M	2022-03-14
ZEC	Zcash	Zcash	117.83	116.5531	-1.08%	149.64	+27.00%	0.3295	✗	1.27	7.2M	2022-03-14
DODO	DODO	Ethereum	0.514	0.508438	-1.08%	0.369	-28.21%	0.2292	✓	1.46	4.9M	2022-03-14
DYDX	dYdX	Cosmos	6.939	6.8657	-1.06%	4.522	-34.83%	0.3531	✓	1.03	407k	2022-03-14
LPT	Livepeer	Ethereum	28.49	28.1975	-1.03%	23.42	-17.80%	0.0902	✓	1.52	2.0M	2022-03-14
RLC	iExec RLC	Ethereum	2.02	2.0014	-0.92%	1.69	-16.34%	0.0869	✓	1.31	2.2M	2022-03-14
COTI	COTI	Ethereum	0.2838	0.281271	-0.89%	0.1945	-31.47%	0.2708	✓	1.56	4.2M	2022-03-14
LTC	Litecoin	Litecoin	126.78	125.706	-0.85%	105.58	-16.72%	0.0931	✓	1.30	35.7M	2022-03-14
AXS	Axie Infinity	Ethereum	59.18	58.7174	-0.78%	47.89	-19.08%	0.1263	✓	1.24	8.8M	2022-03-14
MED	Medibloc	Osmosis	0.04235	0.042037	-0.74%	0.03912	-7.63%	0.0011	✓	1.13	30k	2022-03-14
CTK	Shentu	Osmosis	1.267	1.2584	-0.68%	1.144	-9.71%	0.0165	✓	1.25	3.2M	2022-03-14
JUV	Juventus Fan Token	Solana	6.67	6.627	-0.65%	6.85	+2.70%	0.0893	✗	0.90	406k	2022-03-14
LUNA	Terra	Terra 2	51.96	51.6269	-0.64%	94.79	+82.43%	0.6973	✗	1.43	7.4M	2022-03-14
DOGE	Dogecoin	Dogecoin	0.144281	0.14344	-0.58%	0.113913	-21.05%	0.1654	✓	1.04	7.0M	2022-03-14
MTL	Metal DAO	Metal L2	1.618	1.6087	-0.58%	1.459	-9.83%	0.0248	✓	1.16	1.9M	2022-03-14
BTC	Bitcoin	Bitcoin	42,244.97	42,007.07	-0.56%	39,674.17	-6.09%	0.0056	✓	1.00	642.7M	2022-03-14
LINK	Chainlink	Ethereum	15.97	15.8801	-0.56%	13.41	-16.03%	0.0930	✓	1.21	72.0M	2022-03-14
DASH	Dash	Dash	104.19	103.6238	-0.54%	98.24	-5.71%	0.0183	✗	1.14	2.1M	2022-03-14
BAT	Basic Attention	Ethereum	0.80694	0.802733	-0.52%	0.72186	-10.54%	0.0118	✓	1.50	311k	2022-03-14
UOS	Ultra	Ethereum	1.0443	1.039	-0.51%	1.1348	+8.66%	0.1644	✗	1.21	2.3M	2022-03-14
TRX	TRON	Tron	0.063473	0.063161	-0.49%	0.060064	-5.37%	0.0061	✗	0.90	351k	2022-03-14
HIVE	Hive	native	1.052	1.0469	-0.49%	0.8427	-19.90%	0.1250	✓	1.47	1.9M	2022-03-14
ATM	Atletico Madrid Fan Token	Solana	5.48	5.4687	-0.21%	6.81	+24.27%	0.2692	✗	0.79	377k	2022-03-14
ZEN	Horizen	Base	40.89	40.8098	-0.20%	38.54	-5.75%	0.0410	✗	1.57	420k	2022-03-14
ZRX	0x Protocol	Ethereum	0.617618	0.616507	-0.18%	0.490244	-20.62%	0.1554	✓	1.18	3.5M	2022-03-14
DOT	Polkadot	Polkadot	18.82	18.7937	-0.14%	17.69	-6.00%	0.0254	✗	1.37	36.1M	2022-03-14
LSK	Lisk	Ethereum	1.7725	1.7701	-0.14%	2.0564	+16.02%	0.2201	✗	1.12	73k	2022-03-14
KCS	KuCoin	native	19.111	19.1097	-0.01%	18.087	-5.36%	0.0291	✗	1.34	10.4M	2022-03-14
SC	Siacoin	native	0.01068	0.01068	-0.00%	0.00877	-17.88%	0.1325	✓	1.03	514k	2022-03-14
QNT	Quant	Ethereum	133.7	133.7473	+0.04%	113.5	-15.11%	0.1004	✗	1.02	7.8M	2022-03-14
NANO	nanopay	Base	2.1781	2.1796	+0.07%	1.7056	-21.69%	0.1698	✗	1.20	547k	2022-03-14
UNI	Uniswap	Ethereum	10.64	10.6546	+0.14%	8.48	-20.30%	0.1443	✗	1.34	12.5M	2022-03-14
QTUM	Qtum	Qtum	6.7389	6.7497	+0.16%	5.7568	-14.57%	0.0683	✗	1.45	145k	2022-03-14
AVAX	Avalanche	Avalanche	81.34	81.4732	+0.16%	68.98	-15.20%	0.0812	✗	1.36	98.5M	2022-03-14
BEL	Bella Protocol	Ethereum	0.942	0.943548	+0.16%	0.768	-18.47%	0.1192	✗	1.38	2.4M	2022-03-14
MASK	Mask Network	Ethereum	5.98	5.9905	+0.18%	3.73	-37.63%	0.4037	✗	1.12	645k	2022-03-14
STORJ	Storj	Ethereum	1.1541	1.1565	+0.20%	0.9939	-13.88%	0.0858	✗	1.05	239k	2022-03-14
XLM	Stellar	Stellar	0.218218	0.218718	+0.23%	0.180075	-17.48%	0.1293	✗	1.04	24.2M	2022-03-14
CVC	Civic	Ethereum	0.2852	0.285866	+0.23%	0.2584	-9.40%	0.0311	✗	1.11	538k	2022-03-14
DKA	dKargo	Ethereum	0.09377	0.093995	+0.24%	0.09014	-3.87%	0.0252	✓	1.07	50k	2022-03-14
AMP	Amp	Ethereum	0.03125	0.03133	+0.26%	0.02467	-21.06%	0.1845	✗	0.87	6.4M	2022-03-14
ANKR	Ankr Network	Ethereum	0.07609	0.076352	+0.34%	0.0694	-8.79%	0.0482	✗	0.75	86k	2022-03-14
KSM	Kusama	Hydration	166.09	166.7094	+0.37%	120.47	-27.47%	0.2482	✗	1.22	930k	2022-03-14
CTSI	Cartesi	Ethereum	0.4604	0.462603	+0.48%	0.3223	-30.00%	0.2667	✗	1.51	2.0M	2022-03-14
IMX	Immutable	Ethereum	2.3	2.3141	+0.61%	1.651	-28.22%	0.2765	✗	0.97	2.9M	2022-03-14
BCH	Bitcoin Cash	Bitcoin Cash	330.64	333.0268	+0.72%	289.43	-12.46%	0.0761	✗	1.02	8.9M	2022-03-14
ENS	Ethereum Name Service	Ethereum	17.04	17.1783	+0.81%	13.52	-20.66%	0.1297	✗	1.75	3.8M	2022-03-14
JASMY	JasmyCoin	Ethereum	0.03381	0.034129	+0.94%	0.01958	-42.09%	0.4849	✗	1.13	9.7M	2022-03-14
CHZ	Chiliz	Ethereum	0.2064	0.208496	+1.02%	0.1955	-5.28%	0.0247	✓	1.42	3.7M	2022-03-14
SOL	Solana	Solana	95.95	97.0415	+1.14%	81.24	-15.33%	0.0987	✗	1.26	179.7M	2022-03-14
GODS	Gods Unchained	Ethereum	1.92	1.946	+1.36%	1.04	-45.83%	0.5521	✗	1.19	1.4M	2022-03-14
AUCTION	Bounce	Ethereum	15.16	15.366	+1.36%	12.66	-16.49%	0.1269	✗	1.06	535k	2022-03-14
ALGO	Algorand	Algorand	0.9188	0.931302	+1.36%	0.7063	-23.13%	0.2056	✗	1.13	27.1M	2022-03-14
TKO	Tokocrypto	Binance Smart Chain	0.745	0.755805	+1.45%	0.622	-16.51%	0.1257	✗	1.10	1.6M	2022-03-14
OGN	Origin Token	Ethereum	0.37	0.375781	+1.56%	0.421	+13.78%	0.1996	✓	1.37	2.1M	2022-03-14
LRC	Loopring	Ethereum	0.9401	0.956147	+1.71%	0.6963	-25.93%	0.2203	✗	1.54	672k	2022-03-14
LCX	LCX	Ethereum	0.1035	0.105452	+1.89%	0.0894	-13.62%	0.0660	✗	1.58	1.2M	2022-03-14
ETH	Ethereum	Ethereum	2,919.99	2,975.27	+1.89%	2,590.23	-11.29%	0.0679	✗	1.13	572.6M	2022-03-14
XVS	Venus	Ethereum	8.98	9.2005	+2.46%	8.49	-5.46%	0.0019	✓	1.31	2.8M	2022-03-14
DNT	district0x	Ethereum	0.0857	0.088311	+3.05%	0.0683	-20.30%	0.1793	✗	1.24	201k	2022-03-14
SPELL	Spell	Ethereum	0.00616	0.006364	+3.31%	0.00363	-41.07%	0.4343	✗	2.02	18.8M	2022-03-14

Δ columns are percentage price moves; alpha err and the hit column are in beta-adjusted log-return space, which is what the model actually predicts. “pending” means the horizon has not matured yet. Rows are capped for readability — add &limit=2000 to widen.