2022-01-03 · +30d

gru_s5 · in-sample — the model trained on this date · 138 tokens predicted

These numbers are in-sample. The model was trained on this date, so predicted-vs-actual agreement here is not evidence of skill.

+1d +7d +30d asset cohort only

rank IC

+0.3102

138 of 138 tokens assessed

long-short decile

+22.54%

realised beta-adjusted alpha

direction hit

77.5%

in alpha space · 92.0% on raw price

BTC over horizon

-20.53%

the unhedgeable market factor

Predicted vs actual (138 rows, sorted by pred)

token	name	chain	anchor px	pred px ▾	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d	vol 30d	target
XYM	Symbol	native	0.2058	0.207029	+0.60%	0.1756	-14.67%	0.0276	✗	0.60	428k	2022-02-02
ETH	Ethereum	Ethereum	3,766.04	3,776.10	+0.27%	2,682.66	-28.77%	0.1033	✗	1.04	654.8M	2022-02-02
FIL	Filecoin	Filecoin	35.08	35.145	+0.19%	20.19	-42.45%	0.3152	✗	1.04	22.7M	2022-02-02
PHA	PHALA	Ethereum	0.414	0.414445	+0.11%	0.25	-39.61%	0.3374	✗	0.73	41k	2022-02-02
XVS	Venus	Ethereum	15.52	15.536	+0.10%	7.83	-49.55%	0.4199	✗	1.15	3.5M	2022-02-02
ATM	Atletico Madrid Fan Token	Solana	7.21	7.2166	+0.09%	5.04	-30.10%	0.2125	✗	0.64	861k	2022-02-02
1INCH	1INCH	Ethereum	2.56	2.5616	+0.06%	1.63	-36.33%	0.2089	✗	1.06	4.0M	2022-02-02
QNT	Quant	Ethereum	178.99	178.8171	-0.10%	113.54	-36.57%	0.2340	✓	0.96	8.7M	2022-02-02
BCH	Bitcoin Cash	Bitcoin Cash	434.61	433.0937	-0.35%	278	-36.03%	0.2108	✓	1.01	9.1M	2022-02-02
SUN	Sun Token	Tron	0.022053	0.021959	-0.43%	0.014783	-32.97%	0.1189	✓	1.20	2.4M	2022-02-02
DOGE	Dogecoin	Dogecoin	0.170103	0.169325	-0.46%	0.137104	-19.40%	0.0420	✗	1.10	4.7M	2022-02-02
QTUM	Qtum	Qtum	9.2052	9.1567	-0.53%	6.025	-34.55%	0.0934	✓	1.42	273k	2022-02-02
NANO	nanopay	Base	3.5792	3.5566	-0.63%	2.1064	-41.15%	0.2789	✓	1.07	754k	2022-02-02
LINK	Chainlink	Ethereum	23.72	23.5498	-0.72%	15.79	-33.43%	0.0956	✓	1.32	69.2M	2022-02-02
ASR	AS Roma Fan Token	Solana	4.152	4.1208	-0.75%	3.03	-27.02%	0.1552	✓	0.66	483k	2022-02-02
TRX	TRON	Tron	0.076988	0.076317	-0.87%	0.058639	-23.83%	0.0476	✓	0.94	552k	2022-02-02
LTC	Litecoin	Litecoin	148.43	147.0838	-0.91%	108.36	-27.00%	0.0040	✓	1.35	38.3M	2022-02-02
BTC	Bitcoin	Bitcoin	46,459.56	46,019.70	-0.95%	36,923.39	-20.53%	0.0095	✗	1.00	727.0M	2022-02-02
DKA	dKargo	Ethereum	0.12106	0.119705	-1.12%	0.08941	-26.14%	0.0388	✓	1.10	26k	2022-02-02
MTL	Metal DAO	Metal L2	2.265	2.2395	-1.13%	1.589	-29.85%	0.0855	✓	1.12	2.7M	2022-02-02
XEM	NEM	native	0.127	0.125429	-1.24%	0.1015	-20.08%	0.0411	✗	1.10	115k	2022-02-02
DOT	Polkadot	Polkadot	30.09	29.707	-1.27%	18.76	-37.65%	0.1637	✓	1.29	72.5M	2022-02-02
ICP	Internet Computer	Ethereum	29.28	28.9001	-1.30%	21.59	-26.26%	0.0319	✗	1.41	24.2M	2022-02-02
WBTC	Wrapped Bitcoin	Ethereum	46,018.20	45,333.13	-1.49%	37,883.40	-17.68%	0.0452	✗	0.98	10k	2022-02-02
SOL	Solana	Solana	170.13	167.5838	-1.50%	101.99	-40.05%	0.2516	✓	1.07	217.0M	2022-02-02
XLM	Stellar	Stellar	0.290288	0.285716	-1.57%	0.193151	-33.46%	0.1579	✓	1.02	24.9M	2022-02-02
ADA	Cardano	Cardano	1.3186	1.2946	-1.82%	1.0268	-22.13%	0.0201	✗	1.10	98.5M	2022-02-02
DYDX	dYdX	Cosmos	8.316	8.1632	-1.84%	5.883	-29.26%	0.0372	✓	1.26	354k	2022-02-02
BAR	FC Barcelona Fan Token	Solana	8.89	8.7266	-1.84%	6.02	-32.28%	0.2324	✓	0.60	869k	2022-02-02
JUV	Juventus Fan Token	Solana	8.6	8.439	-1.87%	6.05	-29.65%	0.1576	✓	0.76	773k	2022-02-02
ARPA	ARPA	Ethereum	0.1004	0.098326	-2.07%	0.0599	-40.34%	0.1824	✓	1.36	1.6M	2022-02-02
DASH	Dash	Dash	139.05	136.0558	-2.15%	93.05	-33.08%	0.0888	✓	1.27	1.9M	2022-02-02
CTK	Shentu	Osmosis	1.682	1.6448	-2.21%	1.279	-23.96%	0.0612	✗	1.36	6.0M	2022-02-02
ACM	AC Milan Fan Token	Solana	5.152	5.0367	-2.24%	3.998	-22.40%	0.0923	✓	0.60	598k	2022-02-02
COMP	Compound	Ethereum	222.2	217.0574	-2.31%	121.22	-45.45%	0.3194	✓	1.15	210k	2022-02-02
CITY	Manchester City Fan Token	Solana	10.51	10.2642	-2.34%	9.36	-10.94%	0.0794	✗	0.75	1.3M	2022-02-02
SKL	SKALE	Ethereum	0.2052	0.200389	-2.34%	0.1092	-46.78%	0.3221	✓	1.24	4.8M	2022-02-02
NMR	Numeraire	Ethereum	31.64	30.88	-2.40%	23.57	-25.51%	0.1145	✓	0.68	385k	2022-02-02
CHZ	Chiliz	Ethereum	0.3005	0.293213	-2.43%	0.1803	-40.00%	0.1865	✓	1.30	4.6M	2022-02-02
OMG	OMG Network	Ethereum	6.1828	6.0276	-2.51%	4.6307	-25.10%	0.0123	✓	1.20	577k	2022-02-02
XPR	XPR Network	Ethereum	0.01736	0.016878	-2.77%	0.00952	-45.16%	0.2763	✓	1.29	2.2M	2022-02-02
ORBS	Orbs	Ethereum	0.086	0.083613	-2.78%	0.0643	-25.23%	0.0163	✓	1.07	20k	2022-02-02
AGLD	Adventure Gold	Ethereum	1.72	1.6711	-2.84%	1.36	-20.93%	0.1891	✗	1.72	1.0M	2022-02-02
RLC	iExec RLC	Ethereum	3.25	3.1569	-2.87%	1.87	-42.46%	0.2239	✓	1.30	3.0M	2022-02-02
KSM	Kusama	Hydration	289.65	281.2605	-2.90%	162.31	-43.96%	0.2934	✓	1.12	1.3M	2022-02-02
RIF	Rootstock Infrastructure Framework	Ethereum	0.1984	0.192646	-2.90%	0.1348	-32.06%	0.1488	✓	0.91	527k	2022-02-02
TKO	Tokocrypto	Binance Smart Chain	1.24	1.2032	-2.97%	0.719	-42.02%	0.2986	✓	0.94	2.5M	2022-02-02
AVAX	Avalanche	Avalanche	108.09	104.8757	-2.97%	67.87	-37.21%	0.1791	✓	1.11	119.6M	2022-02-02
XEC	eCash	native	0.00011648	0.000113006	-2.98%	0.00007582	-34.91%	0.1736	✓	0.98	7.4M	2022-02-02
ETC	Ethereum Classic	native	34.72	33.6642	-3.04%	26.29	-24.28%	0.0084	✓	1.04	3.9M	2022-02-02
API3	Api3	Ethereum	4.13	4.0021	-3.10%	3.4	-17.68%	0.0667	✗	1.00	1.0M	2022-02-02
TRB	Tellor Tributes	Ethereum	36.41	35.269	-3.13%	20.09	-44.82%	0.2115	✓	1.53	1.1M	2022-02-02
BCHSV	Bitcoin Cash SV		122.18	118.3113	-3.17%	90	-26.34%	0.0544	✓	0.95	3.2M	2022-02-02
TWT	Trust Wallet	Binance Smart Chain	0.7048	0.682455	-3.17%	0.5398	-23.41%	0.0571	✗	1.27	5.3M	2022-02-02
UNI	Uniswap	Ethereum	18.47	17.8716	-3.24%	10.53	-42.99%	0.2342	✓	1.28	14.1M	2022-02-02
XMR	Monero	Monero	231.81	224.2962	-3.24%	145.08	-37.41%	0.2049	✓	1.00	3.2M	2022-02-02
BAND	Band	Ethereum	5.56	5.377	-3.29%	3.37	-39.39%	0.1935	✓	1.19	2.1M	2022-02-02
PORTO	FC Porto	Binance Smart Chain	3.1177	3.0128	-3.36%	3.0352	-2.65%	0.2828	✗	1.20	3.1M	2022-02-02
KCS	KuCoin	native	22.363	21.6061	-3.38%	17.776	-20.51%	0.1802	✗	1.63	14.1M	2022-02-02
AUCTION	Bounce	Ethereum	24.7	23.8506	-3.44%	13.76	-44.29%	0.3137	✓	1.03	1.3M	2022-02-02
ASM	Assemble AI	Ethereum	0.09008	0.08697	-3.45%	0.05325	-40.89%	0.1564	✓	1.45	3.0M	2022-02-02
OG	OG Fan Token	Solana	4.777	4.6095	-3.51%	3.166	-33.72%	0.2011	✓	0.76	1.2M	2022-02-02
LAZIO	Lazio Fan Token	Binance Smart Chain	4.6279	4.4653	-3.51%	3.1357	-32.24%	0.0567	✓	1.29	5.0M	2022-02-02
DODO	DODO	Ethereum	0.904	0.871599	-3.58%	0.465	-48.56%	0.2901	✓	1.47	8.1M	2022-02-02
GT	Gate	Ethereum	6.4392	6.2068	-3.61%	6.8016	+5.63%	0.2848	✗	0.84	3.9M	2022-02-02
AXS	Axie Infinity	Ethereum	94.38	90.9157	-3.67%	49.12	-47.96%	0.3948	✓	0.96	6.3M	2022-02-02
BNT	Bancor Network	Ethereum	3.43	3.3026	-3.72%	2.41	-29.74%	0.0858	✓	1.00	995k	2022-02-02
JASMY	JasmyCoin	Ethereum	0.0855	0.082176	-3.89%	0.0418	-51.11%	0.3965	✓	1.22	20.9M	2022-02-02
GRT	The Graph	Ethereum	0.6582	0.632556	-3.90%	0.4048	-38.50%	0.1491	✓	1.29	11.4M	2022-02-02
PSG	Paris Saint-Germain Fan Token	Solana	15.18	14.588	-3.90%	14.09	-7.18%	0.1228	✗	0.69	1.2M	2022-02-02
ZEC	Zcash	Zcash	150.55	144.6136	-3.94%	98.35	-34.67%	0.0753	✓	1.35	10.3M	2022-02-02
OXT	Orchid Protocol	Ethereum	0.3721	0.357321	-3.97%	0.2314	-37.81%	0.1419	✓	1.27	3.4M	2022-02-02
LRC	Loopring	Ethereum	2.0456	1.9643	-3.97%	0.8664	-57.65%	0.3872	✓	1.88	1.5M	2022-02-02
FTT	FTX	Ethereum	40.22	38.5989	-4.03%	42.9	+6.66%	0.3479	✗	1.05	19.4M	2022-02-02
BEL	Bella Protocol	Ethereum	1.616	1.5502	-4.07%	0.883	-45.36%	0.2661	✓	1.29	3.4M	2022-02-02
XTZ	Tezos	Tezos	4.8156	4.6157	-4.15%	3.7524	-22.08%	0.0995	✗	1.33	4.9M	2022-02-02
AAVE	Aave	Ethereum	267.25	256.0384	-4.20%	151.26	-43.40%	0.2665	✓	1.13	12.6M	2022-02-02
KNC	Kyber Network Crystal	Ethereum	1.3948	1.3357	-4.23%	1.8613	+33.45%	0.5845	✗	1.10	926k	2022-02-02
STORJ	Storj	Ethereum	1.8521	1.7729	-4.27%	1.1125	-39.93%	0.2815	✓	0.80	689k	2022-02-02
DNT	district0x	Ethereum	0.1352	0.129256	-4.40%	0.0794	-41.27%	0.2409	✓	1.07	310k	2022-02-02
XVG	Verge	native	0.01731	0.016547	-4.41%	0.00978	-43.50%	0.2518	✓	1.19	2.2M	2022-02-02
UOS	Ultra	Ethereum	1.5394	1.4715	-4.41%	1.0423	-32.29%	0.1265	✓	0.95	3.7M	2022-02-02
IMX	Immutable	Ethereum	4.57	4.3679	-4.42%	3.03	-33.70%	0.1360	✓	1.00	2.5M	2022-02-02
SUPER	SuperVerse	Ethereum	1.14	1.0895	-4.43%	0.64	-43.86%	0.3023	✓	1.00	1.9M	2022-02-02
LEO	LEO Token	Ethereum	3.7914	3.622	-4.47%	4.1355	+9.08%	0.1070	✗	-0.11	374k	2022-02-02
ZEN	Horizen	Base	63.44	60.527	-4.59%	38.13	-39.90%	0.1157	✓	1.51	837k	2022-02-02
METRONOME	METRONOME		4.605	4.3918	-4.63%	3.3042	-28.25%	0.1256	✓	0.69	18k	2022-02-02
MED	Medibloc	Osmosis	0.05659	0.053778	-4.97%	0.03913	-30.85%	0.0653	✓	1.10	15k	2022-02-02
ANKR	Ankr Network	Ethereum	0.11092	0.105381	-4.99%	0.07379	-33.47%	0.2092	✓	0.64	55k	2022-02-02
ACH	Alchemy Pay	Ethereum	0.0636	0.060334	-5.13%	0.035872	-43.60%	0.2005	✓	1.39	7.5M	2022-02-02
COTI	COTI	Ethereum	0.3888	0.368802	-5.14%	0.2783	-28.42%	0.0605	✗	1.49	3.4M	2022-02-02
CERE	Cere Network	Ethereum	0.0731	0.069317	-5.18%	0.034	-53.49%	0.3911	✓	1.40	1.7M	2022-02-02
MOVR	Moonriver	Base	191.896	181.6682	-5.33%	73.5972	-61.65%	0.6367	✓	1.16	574k	2022-02-02
VSYS	V.SYSTEMS	native	0.02023	0.019123	-5.47%	0.0126	-37.72%	0.2688	✓	0.65	36k	2022-02-02
AMP	Amp	Ethereum	0.05248	0.049572	-5.54%	0.02927	-44.23%	0.3210	✓	0.90	8.2M	2022-02-02
LSK	Lisk	Ethereum	2.3545	2.2226	-5.60%	1.6005	-32.02%	0.0702	✓	1.12	100k	2022-02-02
SUSHI	Sushi	Ethereum	8.51	8.0289	-5.65%	4.09	-51.94%	0.3739	✓	1.31	17.7M	2022-02-02
ZRX	0x Protocol	Ethereum	0.94026	0.886914	-5.67%	0.5718	-39.19%	0.1821	✓	1.12	2.8M	2022-02-02
CBK	Cobak	Ethereum	3.381	3.189	-5.68%	2.235	-33.90%	0.1613	✓	0.85	41k	2022-02-02
LUNA	Terra	Terra 2	88.92	83.8413	-5.71%	47.6	-46.47%	0.3364	✓	1.00	5.3M	2022-02-02
GODS	Gods Unchained	Ethereum	4.17	3.9318	-5.71%	2.18	-47.72%	0.3600	✓	1.00	3.4M	2022-02-02
SHIB	Shiba Inu	Ethereum	0.00003307	0.000031178	-5.72%	0.00002064	-37.59%	0.1263	✓	1.25	1.7M	2022-02-02
PEOPLE	ConstitutionDAO	Ethereum	0.1235	0.116433	-5.72%	0.0786	-36.36%	0.1632	✓	1.00	35.9M	2022-02-02
XYO	XYO Network	Ethereum	0.033837	0.031867	-5.82%	0.020246	-40.17%	0.2183	✓	1.02	7.8M	2022-02-02
LCX	LCX	Ethereum	0.197	0.184933	-6.13%	0.11	-44.16%	0.2473	✓	1.19	2.4M	2022-02-02
ENS	Ethereum Name Service	Ethereum	39.23	36.813	-6.16%	18.01	-54.09%	0.3019	✓	1.80	5.7M	2022-02-02
BAT	Basic Attention	Ethereum	1.3019	1.2206	-6.24%	0.81012	-37.77%	0.0050	✓	1.76	1.3M	2022-02-02
CELL	Cellframe	Ethereum	1.0025	0.939326	-6.30%	0.8666	-13.56%	0.1492	✗	1.00	146k	2022-02-02
TRAC	OriginTrail	Ethereum	1.2437	1.1638	-6.42%	0.6281	-49.50%	0.2953	✓	1.40	1.9M	2022-02-02
ALGO	Algorand	Algorand	1.7949	1.6786	-6.48%	0.9235	-48.55%	0.3421	✓	1.11	30.0M	2022-02-02
EWT	Energy Web Token	Ethereum	9.436	8.8209	-6.52%	5.754	-39.02%	0.2869	✓	0.61	302k	2022-02-02
ENJ	Enjin Coin	Ethereum	2.796	2.6113	-6.61%	1.696	-39.34%	0.1967	✓	1.02	1.9M	2022-02-02
IOTA	IOTA	IOTA	1.3842	1.2912	-6.72%	0.8404	-39.29%	0.2143	✓	0.94	21.2M	2022-02-02
MANA	Decentraland	Ethereum	3.2506	3.0316	-6.74%	2.537	-21.95%	0.0382	✓	0.94	5.9M	2022-02-02
BFC	Bifrost	Ethereum	0.19941	0.185962	-6.74%	0.19118	-4.13%	0.3878	✗	1.57	6,519	2022-02-02
CTSI	Cartesi	Ethereum	0.6942	0.64656	-6.86%	0.4277	-38.39%	0.1089	✓	1.32	2.9M	2022-02-02
DEXE	DeXe	Ethereum	11.56	10.7563	-6.95%	6.53	-43.51%	0.5375	✓	-0.17	2.3M	2022-02-02
RAD	Radworks	Ethereum	11.29	10.5008	-6.99%	5.22	-53.76%	0.5063	✓	0.84	1.2M	2022-02-02
UMA	UMA	Ethereum	9.27	8.6218	-6.99%	5.49	-40.78%	0.1952	✓	1.12	3.9M	2022-02-02
CVC	Civic	Ethereum	0.374	0.347478	-7.09%	0.278	-25.67%	0.0054	✓	0.99	293k	2022-02-02
OGN	Origin Token	Ethereum	0.64	0.594157	-7.16%	0.316	-50.63%	0.3415	✓	1.26	2.2M	2022-02-02
YFI	yearn.finance	Ethereum	38,753.93	35,968.07	-7.19%	23,029.36	-40.58%	0.3073	✓	0.60	15.7M	2022-02-02
SC	Siacoin	native	0.01573	0.014597	-7.20%	0.00983	-37.51%	0.1760	✓	0.96	817k	2022-02-02
MINA	Mina Protocol	native	3.57	3.3011	-7.53%	2.46	-31.09%	0.0454	✓	1.08	626k	2022-02-02
SNX	Synthetix	Ethereum	7.19	6.6426	-7.61%	5.33	-25.87%	0.0415	✓	1.14	3.3M	2022-02-02
SANTOS	Santos FC Fan Token	Binance Smart Chain	3.467	3.1789	-8.31%	2.582	-25.53%	0.1587	✗	1.60	1.9M	2022-02-02
ATOM	Cosmos Hub	Cosmos	39.29	36.0077	-8.35%	26.33	-32.99%	0.1045	✓	0.91	43.4M	2022-02-02
HIVE	Hive	native	1.6303	1.4913	-8.53%	0.9455	-42.00%	0.1387	✓	1.38	5.5M	2022-02-02
GTC	Gitcoin	Ethereum	13.72	12.5109	-8.81%	7.54	-45.04%	0.5068	✓	-0.00	3.7M	2022-02-02
NAKA	Nakamoto Games	Polygon	1.5062	1.3729	-8.85%	0.37	-75.43%	1.1235	✓	0.82	4.5M	2022-02-02
GITCOIN	GITCOIN		13.612	12.3851	-9.01%	7.564	-44.43%	0.5060	✓	-0.06	98k	2022-02-02
DUSK	DUSK	Ethereum	0.8413	0.758806	-9.81%	0.4666	-44.54%	0.0925	✓	1.71	31.9M	2022-02-02
LPT	Livepeer	Ethereum	41.84	37.7051	-9.88%	26.55	-36.54%	0.0281	✓	1.65	2.8M	2022-02-02
CRV	Curve DAO	Ethereum	6.53	5.8763	-10.01%	3.11	-52.37%	0.3257	✓	1.35	29.3M	2022-02-02
POWR	Powerledger	Ethereum	0.64	0.573241	-10.43%	0.5361	-16.23%	0.2527	✗	1.39	650k	2022-02-02
SPELL	Spell	Ethereum	0.02216	0.019689	-11.15%	0.00607	-72.61%	0.9470	✓	1.00	29.0M	2022-02-02
MASK	Mask Network	Ethereum	12.81	11.3507	-11.39%	5.77	-54.96%	0.5382	✓	0.60	1.3M	2022-02-02
BICO	Biconomy	Ethereum	3.89	3.4079	-12.39%	1.9	-51.16%	0.2803	✓	1.32	11.2M	2022-02-02

Δ columns are percentage price moves; alpha err and the hit column are in beta-adjusted log-return space, which is what the model actually predicts. “pending” means the horizon has not matured yet. Rows are capped for readability — add &limit=2000 to widen.