BASED

Based · Ethereum · gru_s8

token id: #838
symbol: BASED
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0x4f2b33840227ddd0e28da8d4185d6fa07adfed87
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-03-30
predictions: 591

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +30d

assessed

167

of 197 predictions shown

direction hit

66.5%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.2477

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0697

actual -0.0910

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.05086	0.049516	-2.64%	–	pending	–	–	0.81
2026-10-20	oos	0.050125	0.048912	-2.42%	–	pending	–	–	0.86
2026-10-19	oos	0.047365	0.046098	-2.67%	–	pending	–	–	0.84
2026-10-18	oos	0.048835	0.047596	-2.54%	–	pending	–	–	0.83
2026-10-17	oos	0.05305	0.051504	-2.91%	–	pending	–	–	0.83
2026-10-16	oos	0.056	0.054308	-3.02%	–	pending	–	–	0.83
2026-10-15	oos	0.0446	0.043602	-2.24%	–	pending	–	–	0.90
2026-10-14	oos	0.043815	0.042655	-2.65%	–	pending	–	–	0.90
2026-10-13	oos	0.047865	0.046869	-2.08%	–	pending	–	–	0.84
2026-10-12	oos	0.05471	0.053546	-2.13%	–	pending	–	–	0.89
2026-10-11	oos	0.066235	0.064561	-2.53%	–	pending	–	–	0.64
2026-10-10	oos	0.068045	0.065996	-3.01%	–	pending	–	–	0.69
2026-10-09	oos	0.068525	0.066269	-3.29%	–	pending	–	–	0.68
2026-10-08	oos	0.065965	0.063808	-3.27%	–	pending	–	–	0.69
2026-10-07	oos	0.06749	0.065396	-3.10%	–	pending	–	–	0.66
2026-10-06	oos	0.06713	0.065608	-2.27%	–	pending	–	–	0.77
2026-10-05	oos	0.06217	0.061123	-1.68%	–	pending	–	–	0.75
2026-10-04	oos	0.062415	0.061553	-1.38%	–	pending	–	–	0.79
2026-10-03	oos	0.06187	0.060808	-1.72%	–	pending	–	–	0.80
2026-10-02	oos	0.06284	0.061889	-1.51%	–	pending	–	–	0.80
2026-10-01	oos	0.065225	0.064111	-1.71%	–	pending	–	–	0.79
2026-09-30	oos	0.06616	0.064793	-2.07%	–	pending	–	–	0.77
2026-09-29	oos	0.0669	0.065718	-1.77%	–	pending	–	–	0.61
2026-09-28	oos	0.06719	0.066032	-1.72%	–	pending	–	–	0.75
2026-09-27	oos	0.07096	0.069639	-1.86%	–	pending	–	–	0.54
2026-09-26	oos	0.071135	0.069804	-1.87%	–	pending	–	–	0.54
2026-09-25	oos	0.069215	0.068052	-1.68%	–	pending	–	–	0.51
2026-09-24	oos	0.06689	0.066151	-1.10%	–	pending	–	–	0.51
2026-09-23	oos	0.06365	0.063418	-0.36%	–	pending	–	–	0.51
2026-09-22	oos	0.068925	0.068698	-0.33%	–	pending	–	–	0.56
2026-09-21	oos	0.06818	0.068273	+0.14%	0.05086	-25.40%	0.2626	✗	0.69
2026-09-20	oos	0.066145	0.065293	-1.29%	0.050125	-24.22%	0.2786	✓	0.66
2026-09-19	oos	0.06551	0.064759	-1.15%	0.047365	-27.70%	0.3177	✓	0.66
2026-09-18	oos	0.06518	0.064349	-1.27%	0.048835	-25.08%	0.2845	✓	0.62
2026-09-17	oos	0.06246	0.061068	-2.23%	0.05305	-15.07%	0.1771	✓	0.57
2026-09-16	oos	0.06142	0.060114	-2.13%	0.056	-8.82%	0.1100	✓	0.57
2026-09-15	oos	0.0632	0.061552	-2.61%	0.0446	-29.43%	0.3555	✓	0.40
2026-09-14	oos	0.062645	0.061507	-1.82%	0.043815	-30.06%	0.3566	✓	0.41
2026-09-13	oos	0.06183	0.06061	-1.97%	0.047865	-22.59%	0.2688	✓	0.41
2026-09-12	oos	0.06403	0.062708	-2.06%	0.05471	-14.56%	0.1605	✓	0.43
2026-09-11	oos	0.064245	0.063	-1.94%	0.066235	+3.10%	0.0144	✓	0.44
2026-09-10	oos	0.06059	0.059442	-1.90%	0.068045	+12.30%	0.1031	✗	0.40
2026-09-09	oos	0.06193	0.061119	-1.31%	0.068525	+10.65%	0.0937	✗	0.39
2026-09-08	oos	0.06767	0.066376	-1.91%	0.065965	-2.52%	0.0269	✓	0.51
2026-09-07	oos	0.06744	0.066526	-1.36%	0.06749	+0.07%	0.0123	✓	0.52
2026-09-06	oos	0.067405	0.066999	-0.60%	0.06713	-0.41%	0.0304	✓	0.52
2026-09-05	oos	0.068755	0.068284	-0.68%	0.06217	-9.58%	0.1319	✓	0.53
2026-09-04	oos	0.068655	0.068468	-0.27%	0.062415	-9.09%	0.1395	✓	0.57
2026-09-03	oos	0.06963	0.070121	+0.71%	0.06187	-11.14%	0.1485	✗	0.56
2026-09-02	oos	0.06727	0.066321	-1.41%	0.06284	-6.59%	0.1012	✓	0.53
2026-09-01	oos	0.067465	0.066617	-1.26%	0.065225	-3.32%	0.0716	✓	0.55
2026-08-31	oos	0.068375	0.068375	-0.00%	0.06616	-3.24%	0.0594	✓	0.43
2026-08-30	oos	0.06784	0.06756	-0.41%	0.0669	-1.39%	0.0495	✓	0.54
2026-08-29	oos	0.0706	0.070554	-0.07%	0.06719	-4.83%	0.0822	✓	0.52
2026-08-28	oos	0.07148	0.071551	+0.10%	0.07096	-0.73%	0.0511	✗	0.52
2026-08-27	oos	0.07326	0.074695	+1.96%	0.071135	-2.90%	0.0749	✗	0.52
2026-08-26	oos	0.072215	0.073361	+1.59%	0.069215	-4.15%	0.0892	✗	0.50
2026-08-25	oos	0.06901	0.069792	+1.13%	0.06689	-3.07%	0.0784	✗	0.50
2026-08-24	oos	0.072275	0.073315	+1.44%	0.06365	-11.93%	0.1736	✗	0.49
2026-08-23	oos	0.07345	0.074079	+0.86%	0.068925	-6.16%	0.1280	✗	0.54
2026-08-22	oos	0.07444	0.074959	+0.70%	0.06818	-8.41%	0.1583	✗	0.54
2026-08-21	oos	0.09093	0.091253	+0.36%	0.066145	-27.26%	0.3381	✗	0.46
2026-08-20	oos	0.084175	0.082302	-2.23%	0.06551	-22.17%	0.2685	✓	0.38
2026-08-19	oos	0.080745	0.077896	-3.53%	0.06518	-19.28%	0.2508	✓	0.47
2026-08-18	oos	0.078975	0.074607	-5.53%	0.06246	-20.91%	0.2614	✓	0.50
2026-08-17	oos	0.07742	0.073099	-5.58%	0.06142	-20.67%	0.2623	✓	0.53
2026-08-16	oos	0.077985	0.072836	-6.60%	0.0632	-18.96%	0.2441	✓	0.55
2026-08-15	oos	0.07977	0.074588	-6.50%	0.062645	-21.47%	0.2932	✓	0.55
2026-08-14	oos	0.07509	0.070755	-5.77%	0.06183	-17.66%	0.2462	✓	0.56
2026-08-13	oos	0.075375	0.071128	-5.64%	0.06403	-15.05%	0.2147	✓	0.56
2026-08-12	oos	0.07654	0.072163	-5.72%	0.064245	-16.06%	0.2470	✓	0.66
2026-08-11	oos	0.07666	0.072386	-5.57%	0.06059	-20.96%	0.2957	✓	0.63
2026-08-10	oos	0.07734	0.07307	-5.52%	0.06193	-19.93%	0.3116	✓	0.72
2026-08-09	oos	0.074055	0.070444	-4.88%	0.06767	-8.62%	0.1762	✓	0.71
2026-08-08	oos	0.077215	0.073056	-5.39%	0.06744	-12.66%	0.2202	✓	0.71
2026-08-07	oos	0.07789	0.073549	-5.57%	0.067405	-13.46%	0.2401	✓	0.72
2026-08-06	oos	0.08424	0.078684	-6.60%	0.068755	-18.38%	0.3014	✓	0.77
2026-08-05	oos	0.08051	0.075428	-6.31%	0.068655	-14.72%	0.2553	✓	0.77
2026-08-04	oos	0.07671	0.07204	-6.09%	0.06963	-9.23%	0.2065	✓	0.72
2026-08-03	oos	0.07648	0.071762	-6.17%	0.06727	-12.04%	0.2059	✓	0.72
2026-08-02	oos	0.07587	0.071162	-6.21%	0.067465	-11.08%	0.1893	✓	0.69
2026-08-01	oos	0.075195	0.070497	-6.25%	0.068375	-9.07%	0.1769	✓	0.65
2026-07-31	oos	0.07904	0.073808	-6.62%	0.06784	-14.17%	0.2220	✓	0.65
2026-07-30	oos	0.079515	0.074608	-6.17%	0.0706	-11.21%	0.1839	✓	0.68
2026-07-29	oos	0.080195	0.075201	-6.23%	0.07148	-10.87%	0.1801	✓	0.66
2026-07-28	oos	0.07921	0.074678	-5.72%	0.07326	-7.51%	0.1586	✓	0.61
2026-07-27	oos	0.079315	0.074749	-5.76%	0.072215	-8.95%	0.1679	✓	0.62
2026-07-26	oos	0.08704	0.082267	-5.48%	0.06901	-20.71%	0.2771	✓	0.55
2026-07-25	oos	0.08458	0.079844	-5.60%	0.072275	-14.55%	0.2063	✓	0.52
2026-07-24	oos	0.084415	0.079551	-5.76%	0.07345	-12.99%	0.1788	✓	0.51
2026-07-23	oos	0.07593	0.072004	-5.17%	0.07444	-1.96%	0.0648	✓	0.58
2026-07-22	oos	0.08425	0.079973	-5.08%	0.09093	+7.93%	0.0327	✓	0.56
2026-07-21	oos	0.08541	0.081216	-4.91%	0.084175	-1.45%	0.0181	✓	0.58
2026-07-20	oos	0.085835	0.081227	-5.37%	0.080745	-5.93%	0.0342	✓	0.47
2026-07-19	oos	0.09025	0.085018	-5.80%	0.078975	-12.49%	0.0737	✓	0.52
2026-07-18	oos	0.09212	0.086683	-5.90%	0.07742	-15.96%	0.1092	✓	0.77
2026-07-17	oos	0.09172	0.086274	-5.94%	0.077985	-14.97%	0.0876	✓	0.81
2026-07-16	oos	0.091335	0.085718	-6.15%	0.07977	-12.66%	0.0606	✓	0.95
2026-07-15	oos	0.08947	0.083948	-6.17%	0.07509	-16.07%	0.0927	✓	0.69
2026-07-14	oos	0.08738	0.081831	-6.35%	0.075375	-13.74%	0.0623	✓	0.82
2026-07-13	oos	0.094725	0.087839	-7.27%	0.07654	-19.20%	0.1566	✓	1.04
2026-07-12	oos	0.102185	0.094678	-7.35%	0.07666	-24.98%	0.2079	✓	0.99
2026-07-11	oos	0.098305	0.090961	-7.47%	0.07734	-21.33%	0.1645	✓	1.06
2026-07-10	oos	0.10396	0.095673	-7.97%	0.074055	-28.77%	0.2667	✓	0.94
2026-07-09	oos	0.11142	0.101196	-9.18%	0.077215	-30.70%	0.2973	✓	0.99
2026-07-08	oos	0.087055	0.079551	-8.62%	0.07789	-10.53%	0.0573	✓	0.87
2026-07-07	oos	0.08504	0.077809	-8.50%	0.08424	-0.94%	0.0672	✓	0.83
2026-07-06	oos	0.09485	0.087016	-8.26%	0.08051	-15.12%	0.0852	✓	0.80
2026-07-05	oos	0.09236	0.084863	-8.12%	0.07671	-16.94%	0.1075	✓	0.89
2026-07-04	oos	0.09202	0.084544	-8.12%	0.07648	-16.89%	0.1057	✓	0.90
2026-07-03	oos	0.09496	0.086888	-8.50%	0.07587	-20.10%	0.1494	✓	0.89
2026-07-02	oos	0.101225	0.091686	-9.42%	0.075195	-25.71%	0.2172	✓	0.92
2026-07-01	oos	0.13053	0.11353	-13.02%	0.07904	-39.45%	0.4145	✓	1.12
2026-06-30	oos	0.1002	0.089663	-10.52%	0.079515	-20.64%	0.2122	✓	0.91
2026-06-29	oos	0.081245	0.075236	-7.40%	0.080195	-1.29%	0.0023	✓	1.10
2026-06-28	oos	0.08065	0.074222	-7.97%	0.07921	-1.79%	0.0033	✓	0.87
2026-06-27	oos	0.074875	0.06939	-7.33%	0.079315	+5.93%	0.0797	✗	0.89
2026-06-26	oos	0.06701	0.06272	-6.40%	0.08704	+29.89%	0.2521	✗	0.89
2026-06-25	oos	0.07109	0.066106	-7.01%	0.08458	+18.98%	0.1799	✗	0.90
2026-06-24	oos	0.08342	0.075938	-8.97%	0.084415	+1.19%	0.0654	✓	0.81
2026-06-23	oos	0.09949	0.08805	-11.50%	0.07593	-23.68%	0.1742	✓	0.69
2026-06-22	oos	0.094245	0.084763	-10.06%	0.08425	-10.61%	0.0303	✓	0.74
2026-06-21	oos	0.09377	0.083634	-10.81%	0.08541	-8.92%	0.0162	✓	0.74
2026-06-20	oos	0.08845	0.079845	-9.73%	0.085835	-2.96%	0.0605	✓	0.77
2026-06-19	oos	0.097835	0.086106	-11.99%	0.09025	-7.75%	0.0317	✓	0.81
2026-06-18	oos	0.09533	0.084301	-11.57%	0.09212	-3.37%	0.0645	✓	0.81
2026-06-17	oos	0.077795	0.071808	-7.70%	0.09172	+17.90%	0.2532	✗	0.98
2026-06-16	oos	0.076135	0.07042	-7.51%	0.091335	+19.96%	0.2889	✗	1.01
2026-06-15	oos	0.078575	0.072076	-8.27%	0.08947	+13.87%	0.2401	✗	1.01
2026-06-14	oos	0.07155	0.06719	-6.09%	0.08738	+22.12%	0.2735	✗	0.98
2026-06-13	oos	0.0691	0.065012	-5.92%	0.094725	+37.08%	0.4093	✗	0.96
2026-06-12	oos	0.07492	0.069361	-7.42%	0.102185	+36.39%	0.3843	✗	1.01
2026-06-11	oos	0.07312	0.067903	-7.14%	0.098305	+34.44%	0.3667	✗	1.01
2026-06-10	oos	0.06286	0.05996	-4.61%	0.10396	+65.38%	0.5138	✗	0.85
2026-06-09	oos	0.06465	0.061732	-4.51%	0.11142	+72.34%	0.5702	✗	0.85
2026-06-08	oos	0.06474	0.061802	-4.54%	0.087055	+34.47%	0.3541	✗	0.87
2026-06-07	oos	0.07013	0.066362	-5.37%	0.08504	+21.26%	0.2477	✗	0.86
2026-06-06	oos	0.0664	0.063441	-4.46%	0.09485	+42.85%	0.3607	✗	0.82
2026-06-05	oos	0.06214	0.059714	-3.90%	0.09236	+48.63%	0.4023	✗	0.83
2026-06-04	oos	0.06303	0.060072	-4.69%	0.09202	+45.99%	0.4365	✗	0.88
2026-06-03	oos	0.07015	0.065878	-6.09%	0.09496	+35.37%	0.3866	✗	0.87
2026-06-02	oos	0.06498	0.061058	-6.04%	0.101225	+55.78%	0.5928	✗	1.08
2026-06-01	oos	0.07125	0.065462	-8.12%	0.13053	+83.20%	0.8712	✗	1.04
2026-05-31	oos	0.07135	0.064971	-8.94%	0.1002	+40.43%	0.6900	✗	1.12
2026-05-30	oos	0.076975	0.069167	-10.14%	0.081245	+5.55%	0.3865	✗	1.11
2026-05-29	oos	0.07635	0.068523	-10.25%	0.08065	+5.63%	0.3946	✗	1.10
2026-05-28	oos	0.06089	0.055975	-8.07%	0.074875	+22.97%	0.5266	✗	1.15
2026-05-27	oos	0.062215	0.056953	-8.46%	0.06701	+7.71%	0.4103	✗	1.16
2026-05-26	oos	0.062175	0.056838	-8.58%	0.07109	+14.34%	0.5127	✗	1.21
2026-05-25	oos	0.068755	0.062795	-8.67%	0.08342	+21.33%	0.5497	✗	1.12
2026-05-24	oos	0.0685	0.062826	-8.28%	0.09949	+45.24%	0.6911	✗	1.12
2026-05-23	oos	0.07205	0.066308	-7.97%	0.094245	+30.80%	0.5558	✗	1.13
2026-05-22	oos	0.0711	0.06546	-7.93%	0.09377	+31.88%	0.5573	✗	1.12
2026-05-21	oos	0.084	0.076056	-9.46%	0.08845	+5.30%	0.3147	✗	0.87
2026-05-20	oos	0.07665	0.069958	-8.73%	0.097835	+27.64%	0.5112	✗	0.88
2026-05-19	oos	0.07077	0.064607	-8.71%	0.09533	+34.70%	0.5579	✗	0.85
2026-05-18	oos	0.07149	0.06535	-8.59%	0.077795	+8.82%	0.3246	✗	0.85
2026-05-17	oos	0.07044	0.064132	-8.95%	0.076135	+8.08%	0.3151	✗	0.87
2026-05-16	oos	0.07579	0.069356	-8.49%	0.078575	+3.67%	0.2603	✗	0.82
2026-05-15	oos	0.07491	0.068913	-8.01%	0.07155	-4.49%	0.1972	✗	0.86
2026-05-14	oos	0.08692	0.080283	-7.64%	0.0691	-20.50%	0.0089	✓	0.61
2026-05-13	oos	0.08883	0.081809	-7.90%	0.07492	-15.66%	0.0559	✓	0.65
2026-05-12	oos	0.11052	0.100763	-8.83%	0.07312	-33.84%	0.2386	✓	0.35
2026-05-11	oos	0.10473	0.09625	-8.10%	0.06286	-39.98%	0.2977	✓	0.45
2026-05-10	oos	0.09826	0.09036	-8.04%	0.06465	-34.21%	0.1874	✓	0.51
2026-05-09	oos	0.09627	0.088241	-8.34%	0.06474	-32.75%	0.1887	✓	0.49
2026-05-08	oos	0.09008	0.082335	-8.60%	0.07013	-22.15%	0.0457	✓	0.49
2026-05-07	oos	0.091955	0.083536	-9.16%	0.0664	-27.79%	0.0974	✓	0.48
2026-05-06	oos	0.088045	0.079957	-9.19%	0.06214	-29.42%	0.0772	✓	0.61
2026-05-05	oos	0.09052	0.082058	-9.35%	0.06303	-30.37%	0.1194	✓	0.61
2026-05-04	oos	0.09472	0.08556	-9.67%	0.07015	-25.94%	0.0579	✓	0.64
2026-05-03	oos	0.09896	0.088759	-10.31%	0.06498	-34.34%	0.1997	✓	0.68
2026-05-02	oos	0.11639	0.1039	-10.73%	0.07125	-38.78%	0.3188	✓	0.59
2026-05-01	oos	0.11018	0.097921	-11.13%	0.07135	-35.24%	0.2803	✓	0.59
2026-04-30	oos	0.11237	0.098801	-12.07%	0.076975	-31.50%	0.2278	✓	0.64
2026-04-29	oos	0.12989	0.112972	-13.02%	0.07635	-41.22%	0.3699	✓	0.69
2026-04-28	oos	0.13847	0.12027	-13.14%	0.06089	-56.03%	0.6432	✓	1.00
2026-04-27	oos	0.136965	0.119086	-13.05%	0.062215	-54.58%	0.6090	✓	1.00
2026-04-26	oos	0.13381	0.118217	-11.65%	0.062175	-53.53%	0.6057	✓	1.00
2026-04-25	oos	0.134675	0.117813	-12.52%	0.068755	-48.95%	0.5334	✓	1.00
2026-04-24	oos	0.122685	0.10791	-12.04%	0.0685	-44.17%	0.4482	✓	1.00
2026-04-23	oos	0.13582	0.118302	-12.90%	0.07205	-46.95%	0.4748	✓	1.00
2026-04-22	oos	0.11474	0.101879	-11.21%	0.0711	-38.03%	0.3237	✓	1.00
2026-04-21	oos	0.13065	0.111013	-15.03%	0.084	-35.71%	0.2944	✓	1.00
2026-04-20	oos	0.11396	0.097474	-14.47%	0.07665	-32.74%	0.2614	✓	1.00
2026-04-19	oos	0.0862	0.075439	-12.48%	0.07077	-17.90%	0.1030	✓	1.00
2026-04-18	oos	0.09122	0.080791	-11.43%	0.07149	-21.63%	0.1381	✓	1.00
2026-04-17	oos	0.12325	0.105887	-14.09%	0.07044	-42.85%	0.4116	✓	1.00
2026-04-16	oos	0.16615	0.134422	-19.10%	0.07579	-54.38%	0.6114	✓	1.00
2026-04-15	oos	0.085535	0.075886	-11.28%	0.07491	-12.42%	0.0678	✓	1.00
2026-04-14	oos	0.075145	0.068012	-9.49%	0.08692	+15.67%	0.1564	✗	1.00
2026-04-13	oos	0.0657	0.060723	-7.58%	0.08883	+35.21%	0.3174	✗	1.00
2026-04-12	oos	0.059505	0.054339	-8.68%	0.11052	+85.73%	0.5811	✗	1.00
2026-04-11	oos	0.054685	0.050872	-6.97%	0.10473	+91.52%	0.6103	✗	1.00
2026-04-10	oos	0.053855	0.050129	-6.92%	0.09826	+82.45%	0.5543	✗	1.00
2026-04-09	oos	0.05359	0.049634	-7.38%	0.09627	+79.64%	0.5462	✗	1.00
2026-04-08	oos	0.06194	0.057554	-7.08%	0.09008	+45.43%	0.3275	✗	1.00