BASED

Based · Ethereum · gru_s8

token id: #838
symbol: BASED
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0x4f2b33840227ddd0e28da8d4185d6fa07adfed87
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-03-30
predictions: 594

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +7d

assessed

191

of 198 predictions shown

direction hit

49.7%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.1401

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0214

actual -0.0054

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	0.054285	0.05349	-1.47%	–	pending	–	–	0.90
2026-10-21	oos	0.054325	0.053608	-1.32%	–	pending	–	–	0.83
2026-10-20	oos	0.050125	0.049484	-1.28%	–	pending	–	–	0.86
2026-10-19	oos	0.047365	0.046764	-1.27%	–	pending	–	–	0.84
2026-10-18	oos	0.048835	0.048228	-1.24%	–	pending	–	–	0.83
2026-10-17	oos	0.05305	0.052245	-1.52%	–	pending	–	–	0.83
2026-10-16	oos	0.056	0.055034	-1.73%	–	pending	–	–	0.83
2026-10-15	oos	0.0446	0.044331	-0.60%	0.054285	+21.72%	0.1799	✗	0.90
2026-10-14	oos	0.043815	0.043544	-0.62%	0.054325	+23.99%	0.1946	✗	0.90
2026-10-13	oos	0.047865	0.047487	-0.79%	0.050125	+4.72%	0.0557	✗	0.84
2026-10-12	oos	0.05471	0.05423	-0.88%	0.047365	-13.43%	0.1364	✓	0.89
2026-10-11	oos	0.066235	0.065422	-1.23%	0.048835	-26.27%	0.2794	✓	0.64
2026-10-10	oos	0.068045	0.067129	-1.35%	0.05305	-22.04%	0.2226	✓	0.69
2026-10-09	oos	0.068525	0.067539	-1.44%	0.056	-18.28%	0.1786	✓	0.68
2026-10-08	oos	0.065965	0.065042	-1.40%	0.0446	-32.39%	0.3809	✓	0.69
2026-10-07	oos	0.06749	0.066559	-1.38%	0.043815	-35.08%	0.4044	✓	0.66
2026-10-06	oos	0.06713	0.066435	-1.04%	0.047865	-28.70%	0.3057	✓	0.77
2026-10-05	oos	0.06217	0.061675	-0.80%	0.05471	-12.00%	0.0837	✓	0.75
2026-10-04	oos	0.062415	0.06203	-0.62%	0.066235	+6.12%	0.0920	✗	0.79
2026-10-03	oos	0.06187	0.061339	-0.86%	0.068045	+9.98%	0.1212	✗	0.80
2026-10-02	oos	0.06284	0.062371	-0.75%	0.068525	+9.05%	0.1128	✗	0.80
2026-10-01	oos	0.065225	0.064676	-0.84%	0.065965	+1.13%	0.0496	✗	0.79
2026-09-30	oos	0.06616	0.065478	-1.03%	0.06749	+2.01%	0.0329	✗	0.77
2026-09-29	oos	0.0669	0.066272	-0.94%	0.06713	+0.34%	0.0008	✓	0.61
2026-09-28	oos	0.06719	0.066584	-0.90%	0.06217	-7.47%	0.0890	✓	0.75
2026-09-27	oos	0.07096	0.070276	-0.96%	0.062415	-12.04%	0.1315	✓	0.54
2026-09-26	oos	0.071135	0.070432	-0.99%	0.06187	-13.02%	0.1317	✓	0.54
2026-09-25	oos	0.069215	0.068608	-0.88%	0.06284	-9.21%	0.0903	✓	0.51
2026-09-24	oos	0.06689	0.066469	-0.63%	0.065225	-2.49%	0.0217	✓	0.51
2026-09-23	oos	0.06365	0.063449	-0.32%	0.06616	+3.94%	0.0468	✗	0.51
2026-09-22	oos	0.068925	0.068738	-0.27%	0.0669	-2.94%	0.0101	✓	0.56
2026-09-21	oos	0.06818	0.068116	-0.09%	0.06719	-1.45%	0.0118	✗	0.69
2026-09-20	oos	0.066145	0.065538	-0.92%	0.07096	+7.28%	0.0533	✗	0.66
2026-09-19	oos	0.06551	0.064981	-0.81%	0.071135	+8.59%	0.0652	✗	0.66
2026-09-18	oos	0.06518	0.064647	-0.82%	0.069215	+6.19%	0.0441	✗	0.62
2026-09-17	oos	0.06246	0.061893	-0.91%	0.06689	+7.09%	0.0207	✗	0.57
2026-09-16	oos	0.06142	0.060949	-0.77%	0.06365	+3.63%	0.0157	✓	0.57
2026-09-15	oos	0.0632	0.062592	-0.96%	0.068925	+9.06%	0.0435	✗	0.40
2026-09-14	oos	0.062645	0.062215	-0.69%	0.06818	+8.84%	0.0496	✗	0.41
2026-09-13	oos	0.06183	0.061434	-0.64%	0.066145	+6.98%	0.0510	✗	0.41
2026-09-12	oos	0.06403	0.063575	-0.71%	0.06551	+2.31%	0.0085	✗	0.43
2026-09-11	oos	0.064245	0.063877	-0.57%	0.06518	+1.46%	0.0004	✓	0.44
2026-09-10	oos	0.06059	0.060453	-0.23%	0.06246	+3.09%	0.0336	✗	0.40
2026-09-09	oos	0.06193	0.0619	-0.05%	0.06142	-0.82%	0.0030	✗	0.39
2026-09-08	oos	0.06767	0.067379	-0.43%	0.0632	-6.61%	0.0450	✓	0.51
2026-09-07	oos	0.06744	0.067315	-0.19%	0.062645	-7.11%	0.0659	✓	0.52
2026-09-06	oos	0.067405	0.06748	+0.11%	0.06183	-8.27%	0.0642	✗	0.52
2026-09-05	oos	0.068755	0.068804	+0.07%	0.06403	-6.87%	0.0545	✗	0.53
2026-09-04	oos	0.068655	0.068859	+0.30%	0.064245	-6.42%	0.0514	✗	0.57
2026-09-03	oos	0.06963	0.070112	+0.69%	0.06059	-12.98%	0.1126	✗	0.56
2026-09-02	oos	0.06727	0.06709	-0.27%	0.06193	-7.94%	0.0867	✓	0.53
2026-09-01	oos	0.067465	0.067306	-0.24%	0.06767	+0.30%	0.0020	✓	0.55
2026-08-31	oos	0.068375	0.068607	+0.34%	0.06744	-1.37%	0.0200	✗	0.43
2026-08-30	oos	0.06784	0.067835	-0.01%	0.067405	-0.64%	0.0245	✓	0.54
2026-08-29	oos	0.0706	0.070716	+0.16%	0.068755	-2.61%	0.0386	✗	0.52
2026-08-28	oos	0.07148	0.071681	+0.28%	0.068655	-3.95%	0.0553	✗	0.52
2026-08-27	oos	0.07326	0.073977	+0.98%	0.06963	-4.95%	0.0669	✗	0.52
2026-08-26	oos	0.072215	0.072832	+0.85%	0.06727	-6.85%	0.0684	✗	0.50
2026-08-25	oos	0.06901	0.069306	+0.43%	0.067465	-2.24%	0.0197	✗	0.50
2026-08-24	oos	0.072275	0.072641	+0.51%	0.068375	-5.40%	0.0579	✗	0.49
2026-08-23	oos	0.07345	0.073655	+0.28%	0.06784	-7.64%	0.0818	✗	0.54
2026-08-22	oos	0.07444	0.074558	+0.16%	0.0706	-5.16%	0.0628	✗	0.54
2026-08-21	oos	0.09093	0.091274	+0.38%	0.07148	-21.39%	0.2416	✗	0.46
2026-08-20	oos	0.084175	0.083251	-1.10%	0.07326	-12.97%	0.1636	✓	0.38
2026-08-19	oos	0.080745	0.078479	-2.81%	0.072215	-10.56%	0.1449	✓	0.47
2026-08-18	oos	0.078975	0.075733	-4.11%	0.06901	-12.62%	0.1909	✓	0.50
2026-08-17	oos	0.07742	0.074304	-4.03%	0.072275	-6.65%	0.1353	✓	0.53
2026-08-16	oos	0.077985	0.07492	-3.93%	0.07345	-5.82%	0.1375	✓	0.55
2026-08-15	oos	0.07977	0.076514	-4.08%	0.07444	-6.68%	0.1382	✓	0.55
2026-08-14	oos	0.07509	0.072731	-3.14%	0.09093	+21.09%	0.1009	✗	0.56
2026-08-13	oos	0.075375	0.07291	-3.27%	0.084175	+11.67%	0.0655	✗	0.56
2026-08-12	oos	0.07654	0.07402	-3.29%	0.080745	+5.49%	0.0280	✓	0.66
2026-08-11	oos	0.07666	0.074306	-3.07%	0.078975	+3.02%	0.0496	✗	0.63
2026-08-10	oos	0.07734	0.074966	-3.07%	0.07742	+0.10%	0.0259	✓	0.72
2026-08-09	oos	0.074055	0.072143	-2.58%	0.077985	+5.31%	0.1004	✗	0.71
2026-08-08	oos	0.077215	0.075023	-2.84%	0.07977	+3.31%	0.0823	✗	0.71
2026-08-07	oos	0.07789	0.075691	-2.82%	0.07509	-3.59%	0.0135	✓	0.72
2026-08-06	oos	0.08424	0.081326	-3.46%	0.075375	-10.52%	0.0659	✓	0.77
2026-08-05	oos	0.08051	0.07808	-3.02%	0.07654	-4.93%	0.0056	✓	0.77
2026-08-04	oos	0.07671	0.074787	-2.51%	0.07666	-0.07%	0.0306	✗	0.72
2026-08-03	oos	0.07648	0.074704	-2.32%	0.07734	+1.12%	0.0297	✗	0.72
2026-08-02	oos	0.07587	0.074189	-2.22%	0.074055	-2.39%	0.0162	✓	0.69
2026-08-01	oos	0.075195	0.073707	-1.98%	0.077215	+2.69%	0.0246	✗	0.65
2026-07-31	oos	0.07904	0.07715	-2.39%	0.07789	-1.45%	0.0115	✓	0.65
2026-07-30	oos	0.079515	0.077569	-2.45%	0.08424	+5.94%	0.0873	✗	0.68
2026-07-29	oos	0.080195	0.078317	-2.34%	0.08051	+0.39%	0.0204	✓	0.66
2026-07-28	oos	0.07921	0.077599	-2.03%	0.07671	-3.16%	0.0135	✓	0.61
2026-07-27	oos	0.079315	0.077736	-1.99%	0.07648	-3.57%	0.0141	✓	0.62
2026-07-26	oos	0.08704	0.085117	-2.21%	0.07587	-12.83%	0.0992	✓	0.55
2026-07-25	oos	0.08458	0.082948	-1.93%	0.075195	-11.10%	0.0856	✓	0.52
2026-07-24	oos	0.084415	0.08291	-1.78%	0.07904	-6.37%	0.0376	✓	0.51
2026-07-23	oos	0.07593	0.074997	-1.23%	0.079515	+4.72%	0.0614	✗	0.58
2026-07-22	oos	0.08425	0.083002	-1.48%	0.080195	-4.81%	0.0154	✓	0.56
2026-07-21	oos	0.08541	0.084189	-1.43%	0.07921	-7.26%	0.0373	✓	0.58
2026-07-20	oos	0.085835	0.084559	-1.49%	0.079315	-7.60%	0.0531	✓	0.47
2026-07-19	oos	0.09025	0.088683	-1.74%	0.08704	-3.56%	0.0240	✓	0.52
2026-07-18	oos	0.09212	0.090415	-1.85%	0.08458	-8.18%	0.0607	✓	0.77
2026-07-17	oos	0.09172	0.090043	-1.83%	0.084415	-7.96%	0.0669	✓	0.81
2026-07-16	oos	0.091335	0.089609	-1.89%	0.07593	-16.87%	0.1846	✓	0.95
2026-07-15	oos	0.08947	0.087689	-1.99%	0.08425	-5.83%	0.0545	✓	0.69
2026-07-14	oos	0.08738	0.085555	-2.09%	0.08541	-2.25%	0.0207	✓	0.82
2026-07-13	oos	0.094725	0.092541	-2.31%	0.085835	-9.39%	0.1233	✓	1.04
2026-07-12	oos	0.102185	0.099653	-2.48%	0.09025	-11.68%	0.1136	✓	0.99
2026-07-11	oos	0.098305	0.096049	-2.29%	0.09212	-6.29%	0.0586	✓	1.06
2026-07-10	oos	0.10396	0.101417	-2.45%	0.09172	-11.77%	0.0970	✓	0.94
2026-07-09	oos	0.11142	0.107908	-3.15%	0.091335	-18.03%	0.1760	✓	0.99
2026-07-08	oos	0.087055	0.085211	-2.12%	0.08947	+2.77%	0.0149	✓	0.87
2026-07-07	oos	0.08504	0.083239	-2.12%	0.08738	+2.75%	0.0271	✗	0.83
2026-07-06	oos	0.09485	0.09273	-2.23%	0.094725	-0.13%	0.0432	✗	0.80
2026-07-05	oos	0.09236	0.090288	-2.24%	0.102185	+10.64%	0.1216	✗	0.89
2026-07-04	oos	0.09202	0.089926	-2.28%	0.098305	+6.83%	0.0793	✗	0.90
2026-07-03	oos	0.09496	0.092709	-2.37%	0.10396	+9.48%	0.0921	✗	0.89
2026-07-02	oos	0.101225	0.098496	-2.70%	0.11142	+10.07%	0.0984	✗	0.92
2026-07-01	oos	0.13053	0.12415	-4.89%	0.087055	-33.31%	0.3968	✓	1.12
2026-06-30	oos	0.1002	0.096609	-3.58%	0.08504	-15.13%	0.1996	✓	0.91
2026-06-29	oos	0.081245	0.079532	-2.11%	0.09485	+16.75%	0.1082	✗	1.10
2026-06-28	oos	0.08065	0.078808	-2.28%	0.09236	+14.52%	0.1005	✗	0.87
2026-06-27	oos	0.074875	0.073571	-1.74%	0.09202	+22.90%	0.1783	✗	0.89
2026-06-26	oos	0.06701	0.0662	-1.21%	0.09496	+41.71%	0.3243	✗	0.89
2026-06-25	oos	0.07109	0.070178	-1.28%	0.101225	+42.39%	0.3399	✗	0.90
2026-06-24	oos	0.08342	0.081735	-2.02%	0.13053	+56.47%	0.4819	✗	0.81
2026-06-23	oos	0.09949	0.096268	-3.24%	0.1002	+0.71%	0.0871	✗	0.69
2026-06-22	oos	0.094245	0.09184	-2.55%	0.081245	-13.79%	0.0776	✓	0.74
2026-06-21	oos	0.09377	0.091212	-2.73%	0.08065	-13.99%	0.0779	✓	0.74
2026-06-20	oos	0.08845	0.086339	-2.39%	0.074875	-15.35%	0.0892	✓	0.77
2026-06-19	oos	0.097835	0.094583	-3.32%	0.06701	-31.51%	0.2989	✓	0.81
2026-06-18	oos	0.09533	0.092256	-3.22%	0.07109	-25.43%	0.2188	✓	0.81
2026-06-17	oos	0.077795	0.076352	-1.86%	0.08342	+7.23%	0.1429	✗	0.98
2026-06-16	oos	0.076135	0.074684	-1.91%	0.09949	+30.68%	0.3336	✗	1.01
2026-06-15	oos	0.078575	0.07666	-2.44%	0.094245	+19.94%	0.2424	✗	1.01
2026-06-14	oos	0.07155	0.070417	-1.58%	0.09377	+31.06%	0.3239	✗	0.98
2026-06-13	oos	0.0691	0.068189	-1.32%	0.08845	+28.00%	0.2633	✗	0.96
2026-06-12	oos	0.07492	0.073617	-1.74%	0.097835	+30.59%	0.2854	✗	1.01
2026-06-11	oos	0.07312	0.071935	-1.62%	0.09533	+30.37%	0.2925	✗	1.01
2026-06-10	oos	0.06286	0.062479	-0.61%	0.077795	+23.76%	0.1785	✗	0.85
2026-06-09	oos	0.06465	0.064067	-0.90%	0.076135	+17.76%	0.1199	✗	0.85
2026-06-08	oos	0.06474	0.064016	-1.12%	0.078575	+21.37%	0.1616	✗	0.87
2026-06-07	oos	0.07013	0.068971	-1.65%	0.07155	+2.02%	0.0045	✓	0.86
2026-06-06	oos	0.0664	0.06567	-1.10%	0.0691	+4.07%	0.0040	✓	0.82
2026-06-05	oos	0.06214	0.061776	-0.59%	0.07492	+20.57%	0.1597	✗	0.83
2026-06-04	oos	0.06303	0.062452	-0.92%	0.07312	+16.01%	0.1611	✗	0.88
2026-06-03	oos	0.07015	0.069009	-1.63%	0.06286	-10.39%	0.0573	✓	0.87
2026-06-02	oos	0.06498	0.06413	-1.31%	0.06465	-0.51%	0.0918	✗	1.08
2026-06-01	oos	0.07125	0.069325	-2.70%	0.06474	-9.14%	0.0600	✗	1.04
2026-05-31	oos	0.07135	0.0691	-3.15%	0.07013	-1.71%	0.1835	✗	1.12
2026-05-30	oos	0.076975	0.074042	-3.81%	0.0664	-13.74%	0.1041	✗	1.11
2026-05-29	oos	0.07635	0.073444	-3.81%	0.06214	-18.61%	0.0360	✓	1.10
2026-05-28	oos	0.06089	0.060201	-1.13%	0.06303	+3.51%	0.2094	✗	1.15
2026-05-27	oos	0.062215	0.061359	-1.38%	0.07015	+12.75%	0.3062	✗	1.16
2026-05-26	oos	0.062175	0.061281	-1.44%	0.06498	+4.51%	0.2144	✗	1.21
2026-05-25	oos	0.068755	0.06695	-2.63%	0.07125	+3.63%	0.1521	✗	1.12
2026-05-24	oos	0.0685	0.066921	-2.30%	0.07135	+4.16%	0.1148	✗	1.12
2026-05-23	oos	0.07205	0.070249	-2.50%	0.076975	+6.84%	0.1346	✗	1.13
2026-05-22	oos	0.0711	0.069682	-1.99%	0.07635	+7.38%	0.1227	✗	1.12
2026-05-21	oos	0.084	0.080585	-4.07%	0.06089	-27.51%	0.2338	✓	0.87
2026-05-20	oos	0.07665	0.074547	-2.74%	0.062215	-18.83%	0.1441	✓	0.88
2026-05-19	oos	0.07077	0.0696	-1.65%	0.062175	-12.14%	0.1024	✓	0.85
2026-05-18	oos	0.07149	0.070435	-1.48%	0.068755	-3.83%	0.0275	✓	0.85
2026-05-17	oos	0.07044	0.069594	-1.20%	0.0685	-2.75%	0.0110	✓	0.87
2026-05-16	oos	0.07579	0.074587	-1.59%	0.07205	-4.93%	0.0191	✓	0.82
2026-05-15	oos	0.07491	0.074137	-1.03%	0.0711	-5.09%	0.0014	✓	0.86
2026-05-14	oos	0.08692	0.084558	-2.72%	0.084	-3.36%	0.0207	✓	0.61
2026-05-13	oos	0.08883	0.086591	-2.52%	0.07665	-13.71%	0.1069	✓	0.65
2026-05-12	oos	0.11052	0.104825	-5.15%	0.07077	-35.97%	0.3764	✓	0.35
2026-05-11	oos	0.10473	0.09999	-4.53%	0.07149	-31.74%	0.3084	✓	0.45
2026-05-10	oos	0.09826	0.094268	-4.06%	0.07044	-28.31%	0.2605	✓	0.51
2026-05-09	oos	0.09627	0.09299	-3.41%	0.07579	-21.27%	0.1887	✓	0.49
2026-05-08	oos	0.09008	0.087604	-2.75%	0.07491	-16.84%	0.1497	✓	0.49
2026-05-07	oos	0.091955	0.089153	-3.05%	0.08692	-5.48%	0.0318	✓	0.48
2026-05-06	oos	0.088045	0.085707	-2.66%	0.08883	+0.89%	0.0520	✗	0.61
2026-05-05	oos	0.09052	0.087972	-2.82%	0.11052	+22.09%	0.2314	✗	0.61
2026-05-04	oos	0.09472	0.09166	-3.23%	0.10473	+10.57%	0.1185	✗	0.64
2026-05-03	oos	0.09896	0.095168	-3.83%	0.09826	-0.71%	0.0010	✓	0.68
2026-05-02	oos	0.11639	0.111378	-4.31%	0.09627	-17.29%	0.1605	✓	0.59
2026-05-01	oos	0.11018	0.105348	-4.39%	0.09008	-18.24%	0.1711	✓	0.59
2026-04-30	oos	0.11237	0.107316	-4.50%	0.091955	-18.17%	0.1850	✓	0.64
2026-04-29	oos	0.12989	0.124045	-4.50%	0.088045	-32.22%	0.3924	✓	0.69
2026-04-28	oos	0.13847	0.132514	-4.30%	0.09052	-34.63%	0.4395	✓	1.00
2026-04-27	oos	0.136965	0.131025	-4.34%	0.09472	-30.84%	0.3561	✓	1.00
2026-04-26	oos	0.13381	0.129011	-3.59%	0.09896	-26.04%	0.2637	✓	1.00
2026-04-25	oos	0.134675	0.129407	-3.91%	0.11639	-13.58%	0.1192	✓	1.00
2026-04-24	oos	0.122685	0.118237	-3.63%	0.11018	-10.19%	0.0805	✓	1.00
2026-04-23	oos	0.13582	0.130655	-3.80%	0.11237	-17.27%	0.1252	✓	1.00
2026-04-22	oos	0.11474	0.111101	-3.17%	0.12989	+13.20%	0.1882	✗	1.00
2026-04-21	oos	0.13065	0.123761	-5.27%	0.13847	+5.99%	0.1127	✗	1.00
2026-04-20	oos	0.11396	0.10743	-5.73%	0.136965	+20.19%	0.2233	✗	1.00
2026-04-19	oos	0.0862	0.082088	-4.77%	0.13381	+55.23%	0.4250	✗	1.00
2026-04-18	oos	0.09122	0.087346	-4.25%	0.134675	+47.64%	0.4080	✗	1.00
2026-04-17	oos	0.12325	0.116701	-5.31%	0.122685	-0.46%	0.0453	✓	1.00
2026-04-16	oos	0.16615	0.150094	-9.66%	0.13582	-18.25%	0.1406	✓	1.00
2026-04-15	oos	0.085535	0.080915	-5.40%	0.11474	+34.14%	0.3052	✗	1.00
2026-04-14	oos	0.075145	0.071645	-4.66%	0.13065	+73.86%	0.5720	✗	1.00
2026-04-13	oos	0.0657	0.062991	-4.12%	0.11396	+73.46%	0.5740	✗	1.00
2026-04-12	oos	0.059505	0.057038	-4.15%	0.0862	+44.86%	0.3705	✗	1.00
2026-04-11	oos	0.054685	0.052624	-3.77%	0.09122	+66.81%	0.5145	✗	1.00
2026-04-10	oos	0.053855	0.051771	-3.87%	0.12325	+128.86%	0.8127	✗	1.00
2026-04-09	oos	0.05359	0.051398	-4.09%	0.16615	+210.04%	1.1275	✗	1.00
2026-04-08	oos	0.06194	0.059597	-3.78%	0.085535	+38.09%	0.3099	✗	1.00