BASED

Based · Ethereum · gru_s8

token id: #838
symbol: BASED
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0x4f2b33840227ddd0e28da8d4185d6fa07adfed87
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-03-30
predictions: 594

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +1d

assessed

197

of 198 predictions shown

direction hit

54.3%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0601

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0051

actual -0.0009

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	0.054285	0.054086	-0.37%	–	pending	–	–	0.90
2026-10-21	oos	0.054325	0.054153	-0.32%	0.054285	-0.07%	0.0005	✓	0.83
2026-10-20	oos	0.050125	0.049995	-0.26%	0.054325	+8.38%	0.0719	✗	0.86
2026-10-19	oos	0.047365	0.04726	-0.22%	0.050125	+5.83%	0.0477	✗	0.84
2026-10-18	oos	0.048835	0.048725	-0.23%	0.047365	-3.01%	0.0266	✓	0.83
2026-10-17	oos	0.05305	0.052816	-0.44%	0.048835	-7.95%	0.0847	✓	0.83
2026-10-16	oos	0.056	0.055662	-0.60%	0.05305	-5.27%	0.0469	✓	0.83
2026-10-15	oos	0.0446	0.044614	+0.03%	0.056	+25.56%	0.2342	✓	0.90
2026-10-14	oos	0.043815	0.043841	+0.06%	0.0446	+1.79%	0.0111	✓	0.90
2026-10-13	oos	0.047865	0.047875	+0.02%	0.043815	-8.46%	0.0730	✗	0.84
2026-10-12	oos	0.05471	0.054696	-0.03%	0.047865	-12.51%	0.1480	✓	0.89
2026-10-11	oos	0.066235	0.066116	-0.18%	0.05471	-17.40%	0.1743	✓	0.64
2026-10-10	oos	0.068045	0.067893	-0.22%	0.066235	-2.66%	0.0311	✓	0.69
2026-10-09	oos	0.068525	0.068345	-0.26%	0.068045	-0.70%	0.0074	✓	0.68
2026-10-08	oos	0.065965	0.065788	-0.27%	0.068525	+3.88%	0.0336	✗	0.69
2026-10-07	oos	0.06749	0.067291	-0.29%	0.065965	-2.26%	0.0072	✓	0.66
2026-10-06	oos	0.06713	0.066985	-0.22%	0.06749	+0.54%	0.0281	✗	0.77
2026-10-05	oos	0.06217	0.062115	-0.09%	0.06713	+7.98%	0.0795	✗	0.75
2026-10-04	oos	0.062415	0.062382	-0.05%	0.06217	-0.39%	0.0036	✗	0.79
2026-10-03	oos	0.06187	0.061811	-0.10%	0.062415	+0.88%	0.0067	✓	0.80
2026-10-02	oos	0.06284	0.0628	-0.06%	0.06187	-1.54%	0.0172	✓	0.80
2026-10-01	oos	0.065225	0.065157	-0.10%	0.06284	-3.66%	0.0330	✓	0.79
2026-09-30	oos	0.06616	0.066063	-0.15%	0.065225	-1.41%	0.0245	✓	0.77
2026-09-29	oos	0.0669	0.066806	-0.14%	0.06616	-1.11%	0.0091	✓	0.61
2026-09-28	oos	0.06719	0.067111	-0.12%	0.0669	-0.43%	0.0048	✓	0.75
2026-09-27	oos	0.07096	0.070819	-0.20%	0.06719	-5.31%	0.0462	✓	0.54
2026-09-26	oos	0.071135	0.070947	-0.26%	0.07096	-0.25%	0.0001	✓	0.54
2026-09-25	oos	0.069215	0.069131	-0.12%	0.071135	+2.77%	0.0266	✗	0.51
2026-09-24	oos	0.06689	0.066855	-0.05%	0.069215	+3.48%	0.0365	✗	0.51
2026-09-23	oos	0.06365	0.063676	+0.04%	0.06689	+5.09%	0.0492	✓	0.51
2026-09-22	oos	0.068925	0.068922	-0.00%	0.06365	-7.65%	0.0676	✓	0.56
2026-09-21	oos	0.06818	0.068193	+0.02%	0.068925	+1.09%	0.0139	✓	0.69
2026-09-20	oos	0.066145	0.066051	-0.14%	0.06818	+3.08%	0.0108	✓	0.66
2026-09-19	oos	0.06551	0.065431	-0.12%	0.066145	+0.97%	0.0114	✗	0.66
2026-09-18	oos	0.06518	0.065119	-0.09%	0.06551	+0.51%	0.0032	✗	0.62
2026-09-17	oos	0.06246	0.062412	-0.08%	0.06518	+4.35%	0.0106	✗	0.57
2026-09-16	oos	0.06142	0.061393	-0.04%	0.06246	+1.69%	0.0157	✗	0.57
2026-09-15	oos	0.0632	0.063138	-0.10%	0.06142	-2.82%	0.0306	✓	0.40
2026-09-14	oos	0.062645	0.062626	-0.03%	0.0632	+0.89%	0.0230	✗	0.41
2026-09-13	oos	0.06183	0.061824	-0.01%	0.062645	+1.32%	0.0058	✗	0.41
2026-09-12	oos	0.06403	0.064003	-0.04%	0.06183	-3.44%	0.0320	✓	0.43
2026-09-11	oos	0.064245	0.064224	-0.03%	0.06403	-0.33%	0.0033	✓	0.44
2026-09-10	oos	0.06059	0.060662	+0.12%	0.064245	+6.03%	0.0539	✓	0.40
2026-09-09	oos	0.06193	0.062019	+0.14%	0.06059	-2.16%	0.0145	✗	0.39
2026-09-08	oos	0.06767	0.067701	+0.05%	0.06193	-8.48%	0.0880	✗	0.51
2026-09-07	oos	0.06744	0.067506	+0.10%	0.06767	+0.34%	0.0067	✓	0.52
2026-09-06	oos	0.067405	0.06751	+0.16%	0.06744	+0.05%	0.0070	✓	0.52
2026-09-05	oos	0.068755	0.06885	+0.14%	0.067405	-1.96%	0.0246	✗	0.53
2026-09-04	oos	0.068655	0.068785	+0.19%	0.068755	+0.15%	0.0016	✓	0.57
2026-09-03	oos	0.06963	0.069809	+0.26%	0.068655	-1.40%	0.0057	✗	0.56
2026-09-02	oos	0.06727	0.067311	+0.06%	0.06963	+3.51%	0.0073	✓	0.53
2026-09-01	oos	0.067465	0.067507	+0.06%	0.06727	-0.29%	0.0029	✗	0.55
2026-08-31	oos	0.068375	0.068496	+0.18%	0.067465	-1.33%	0.0088	✗	0.43
2026-08-30	oos	0.06784	0.067903	+0.09%	0.068375	+0.79%	0.0008	✓	0.54
2026-08-29	oos	0.0706	0.070675	+0.11%	0.06784	-3.91%	0.0372	✗	0.52
2026-08-28	oos	0.07148	0.071571	+0.13%	0.0706	-1.23%	0.0163	✗	0.52
2026-08-27	oos	0.07326	0.073436	+0.24%	0.07148	-2.43%	0.0110	✗	0.52
2026-08-26	oos	0.072215	0.072375	+0.22%	0.07326	+1.45%	0.0043	✓	0.50
2026-08-25	oos	0.06901	0.069113	+0.15%	0.072215	+4.64%	0.0407	✓	0.50
2026-08-24	oos	0.072275	0.072384	+0.15%	0.06901	-4.52%	0.0449	✗	0.49
2026-08-23	oos	0.07345	0.073527	+0.10%	0.072275	-1.60%	0.0258	✗	0.54
2026-08-22	oos	0.07444	0.074487	+0.06%	0.07345	-1.33%	0.0188	✗	0.54
2026-08-21	oos	0.09093	0.090877	-0.06%	0.07444	-18.13%	0.1920	✓	0.46
2026-08-20	oos	0.084175	0.083966	-0.25%	0.09093	+8.02%	0.0532	✗	0.38
2026-08-19	oos	0.080745	0.080207	-0.67%	0.084175	+4.25%	0.0238	✗	0.47
2026-08-18	oos	0.078975	0.07824	-0.93%	0.080745	+2.24%	0.0033	✓	0.50
2026-08-17	oos	0.07742	0.076728	-0.89%	0.078975	+2.01%	0.0272	✗	0.53
2026-08-16	oos	0.077985	0.077276	-0.91%	0.07742	-0.72%	0.0124	✓	0.55
2026-08-15	oos	0.07977	0.078976	-1.00%	0.077985	-2.24%	0.0110	✓	0.55
2026-08-14	oos	0.07509	0.074674	-0.55%	0.07977	+6.23%	0.0656	✗	0.56
2026-08-13	oos	0.075375	0.074923	-0.60%	0.07509	-0.38%	0.0062	✗	0.56
2026-08-12	oos	0.07654	0.076068	-0.62%	0.075375	-1.52%	0.0093	✓	0.66
2026-08-11	oos	0.07666	0.076234	-0.56%	0.07654	-0.16%	0.0052	✓	0.63
2026-08-10	oos	0.07734	0.076881	-0.59%	0.07666	-0.88%	0.0014	✓	0.72
2026-08-09	oos	0.074055	0.073738	-0.43%	0.07734	+4.44%	0.0581	✗	0.71
2026-08-08	oos	0.077215	0.076806	-0.53%	0.074055	-4.09%	0.0358	✓	0.71
2026-08-07	oos	0.07789	0.077477	-0.53%	0.077215	-0.87%	0.0036	✓	0.72
2026-08-06	oos	0.08424	0.083599	-0.76%	0.07789	-7.54%	0.0782	✓	0.77
2026-08-05	oos	0.08051	0.080005	-0.63%	0.08424	+4.63%	0.0556	✗	0.77
2026-08-04	oos	0.07671	0.076371	-0.44%	0.08051	+4.95%	0.0466	✗	0.72
2026-08-03	oos	0.07648	0.076182	-0.39%	0.07671	+0.30%	0.0004	✓	0.72
2026-08-02	oos	0.07587	0.075592	-0.37%	0.07648	+0.80%	0.0120	✗	0.69
2026-08-01	oos	0.075195	0.074971	-0.30%	0.07587	+0.90%	0.0043	✗	0.65
2026-07-31	oos	0.07904	0.07869	-0.44%	0.075195	-4.86%	0.0448	✓	0.65
2026-07-30	oos	0.079515	0.079123	-0.49%	0.07904	-0.60%	0.0191	✗	0.68
2026-07-29	oos	0.080195	0.079822	-0.46%	0.079515	-0.85%	0.0123	✓	0.66
2026-07-28	oos	0.07921	0.078917	-0.37%	0.080195	+1.24%	0.0156	✗	0.61
2026-07-27	oos	0.079315	0.079032	-0.36%	0.07921	-0.13%	0.0008	✓	0.62
2026-07-26	oos	0.08704	0.086623	-0.48%	0.079315	-8.88%	0.0741	✓	0.55
2026-07-25	oos	0.08458	0.084254	-0.39%	0.08704	+2.91%	0.0242	✗	0.52
2026-07-24	oos	0.084415	0.084116	-0.35%	0.08458	+0.20%	0.0038	✗	0.51
2026-07-23	oos	0.07593	0.0758	-0.17%	0.084415	+11.17%	0.1163	✗	0.58
2026-07-22	oos	0.08425	0.084014	-0.28%	0.07593	-9.88%	0.0923	✓	0.56
2026-07-21	oos	0.08541	0.085179	-0.27%	0.08425	-1.36%	0.0072	✓	0.58
2026-07-20	oos	0.085835	0.085595	-0.28%	0.08541	-0.50%	0.0114	✓	0.47
2026-07-19	oos	0.09025	0.089921	-0.36%	0.085835	-4.89%	0.0508	✓	0.52
2026-07-18	oos	0.09212	0.091745	-0.41%	0.09025	-2.03%	0.0151	✓	0.77
2026-07-17	oos	0.09172	0.091365	-0.39%	0.09212	+0.44%	0.0031	✓	0.81
2026-07-16	oos	0.091335	0.090959	-0.41%	0.09172	+0.42%	0.0065	✗	0.95
2026-07-15	oos	0.08947	0.089074	-0.44%	0.091335	+2.08%	0.0352	✗	0.69
2026-07-14	oos	0.08738	0.086977	-0.46%	0.08947	+2.39%	0.0317	✗	0.82
2026-07-13	oos	0.094725	0.094225	-0.53%	0.08738	-7.75%	0.1199	✓	1.04
2026-07-12	oos	0.102185	0.101549	-0.62%	0.094725	-7.30%	0.0464	✓	0.99
2026-07-11	oos	0.098305	0.097762	-0.55%	0.102185	+3.95%	0.0448	✗	1.06
2026-07-10	oos	0.10396	0.103259	-0.67%	0.098305	-5.44%	0.0439	✓	0.94
2026-07-09	oos	0.11142	0.110162	-1.13%	0.10396	-6.70%	0.0728	✓	0.99
2026-07-08	oos	0.087055	0.086613	-0.51%	0.11142	+27.99%	0.2389	✗	0.87
2026-07-07	oos	0.08504	0.084636	-0.48%	0.087055	+2.37%	0.0425	✗	0.83
2026-07-06	oos	0.09485	0.094283	-0.60%	0.08504	-10.34%	0.0947	✓	0.80
2026-07-05	oos	0.09236	0.091764	-0.65%	0.09485	+2.70%	0.0272	✗	0.89
2026-07-04	oos	0.09202	0.091394	-0.68%	0.09236	+0.37%	0.0034	✓	0.90
2026-07-03	oos	0.09496	0.094252	-0.75%	0.09202	-3.10%	0.0319	✓	0.89
2026-07-02	oos	0.101225	0.100271	-0.94%	0.09496	-6.19%	0.0698	✓	0.92
2026-07-01	oos	0.13053	0.127388	-2.41%	0.101225	-22.45%	0.2580	✓	1.12
2026-06-30	oos	0.1002	0.098698	-1.50%	0.13053	+30.27%	0.2573	✗	0.91
2026-06-29	oos	0.081245	0.080833	-0.51%	0.1002	+23.33%	0.2451	✗	1.10
2026-06-28	oos	0.08065	0.080107	-0.67%	0.081245	+0.74%	0.0041	✓	0.87
2026-06-27	oos	0.074875	0.074591	-0.38%	0.08065	+7.71%	0.0849	✗	0.89
2026-06-26	oos	0.06701	0.066918	-0.14%	0.074875	+11.74%	0.1134	✗	0.89
2026-06-25	oos	0.07109	0.070969	-0.17%	0.06701	-5.74%	0.0619	✓	0.90
2026-06-24	oos	0.08342	0.083041	-0.45%	0.07109	-14.78%	0.1381	✓	0.81
2026-06-23	oos	0.09949	0.098409	-1.09%	0.08342	-16.15%	0.1466	✓	0.69
2026-06-22	oos	0.094245	0.093668	-0.61%	0.09949	+5.57%	0.0755	✗	0.74
2026-06-21	oos	0.09377	0.093068	-0.75%	0.094245	+0.51%	0.0043	✓	0.74
2026-06-20	oos	0.08845	0.087959	-0.55%	0.09377	+6.01%	0.0759	✗	0.77
2026-06-19	oos	0.097835	0.096762	-1.10%	0.08845	-9.59%	0.0993	✓	0.81
2026-06-18	oos	0.09533	0.094335	-1.04%	0.097835	+2.63%	0.0288	✗	0.81
2026-06-17	oos	0.077795	0.077505	-0.37%	0.09533	+22.54%	0.2312	✗	0.98
2026-06-16	oos	0.076135	0.075822	-0.41%	0.077795	+2.18%	0.0439	✗	1.01
2026-06-15	oos	0.078575	0.077992	-0.74%	0.076135	-3.11%	0.0140	✓	1.01
2026-06-14	oos	0.07155	0.071366	-0.26%	0.078575	+9.82%	0.0878	✗	0.98
2026-06-13	oos	0.0691	0.068979	-0.17%	0.07155	+3.55%	0.0177	✗	0.96
2026-06-12	oos	0.07492	0.074662	-0.34%	0.0691	-7.77%	0.0914	✓	1.01
2026-06-11	oos	0.07312	0.0729	-0.30%	0.07492	+2.46%	0.0277	✗	1.01
2026-06-10	oos	0.06286	0.062869	+0.01%	0.07312	+16.32%	0.1221	✓	0.85
2026-06-09	oos	0.06465	0.064613	-0.06%	0.06286	-2.77%	0.0242	✓	0.85
2026-06-08	oos	0.06474	0.064675	-0.10%	0.06465	-0.14%	0.0189	✗	0.87
2026-06-07	oos	0.07013	0.069945	-0.26%	0.06474	-7.69%	0.0740	✓	0.86
2026-06-06	oos	0.0664	0.066326	-0.11%	0.07013	+5.62%	0.0233	✗	0.82
2026-06-05	oos	0.06214	0.062162	+0.04%	0.0664	+6.86%	0.0684	✓	0.83
2026-06-04	oos	0.06303	0.063014	-0.02%	0.06214	-1.41%	0.0252	✗	0.88
2026-06-03	oos	0.07015	0.069985	-0.24%	0.06303	-10.15%	0.1015	✓	0.87
2026-06-02	oos	0.06498	0.064909	-0.11%	0.07015	+7.96%	0.1209	✗	1.08
2026-06-01	oos	0.07125	0.070897	-0.50%	0.06498	-8.80%	0.0167	✓	1.04
2026-05-31	oos	0.07135	0.070903	-0.63%	0.07125	-0.14%	0.0399	✗	1.12
2026-05-30	oos	0.076975	0.076252	-0.94%	0.07135	-7.31%	0.0635	✓	1.11
2026-05-29	oos	0.07635	0.075553	-1.04%	0.076975	+0.82%	0.0126	✗	1.10
2026-05-28	oos	0.06089	0.060888	-0.00%	0.07635	+25.39%	0.2286	✗	1.15
2026-05-27	oos	0.062215	0.062172	-0.07%	0.06089	-2.13%	0.0083	✓	1.16
2026-05-26	oos	0.062175	0.062129	-0.07%	0.062215	+0.06%	0.0257	✗	1.21
2026-05-25	oos	0.068755	0.068459	-0.43%	0.062175	-9.57%	0.0754	✓	1.12
2026-05-24	oos	0.0685	0.068272	-0.33%	0.068755	+0.37%	0.0031	✓	1.12
2026-05-23	oos	0.07205	0.071762	-0.40%	0.0685	-4.93%	0.0513	✓	1.13
2026-05-22	oos	0.0711	0.070923	-0.25%	0.07205	+1.34%	0.0020	✓	1.12
2026-05-21	oos	0.084	0.083125	-1.04%	0.0711	-15.36%	0.1324	✓	0.87
2026-05-20	oos	0.07665	0.076244	-0.53%	0.084	+9.59%	0.0961	✗	0.88
2026-05-19	oos	0.07077	0.070648	-0.17%	0.07665	+8.31%	0.0738	✗	0.85
2026-05-18	oos	0.07149	0.0714	-0.13%	0.07077	-1.01%	0.0069	✓	0.85
2026-05-17	oos	0.07044	0.070413	-0.04%	0.07149	+1.49%	0.0204	✗	0.87
2026-05-16	oos	0.07579	0.075675	-0.15%	0.07044	-7.06%	0.0643	✓	0.82
2026-05-15	oos	0.07491	0.07492	+0.01%	0.07579	+1.17%	0.0220	✓	0.86
2026-05-14	oos	0.08692	0.08647	-0.52%	0.07491	-13.82%	0.1280	✓	0.61
2026-05-13	oos	0.08883	0.08843	-0.45%	0.08692	-2.15%	0.0317	✓	0.65
2026-05-12	oos	0.11052	0.10881	-1.55%	0.08883	-19.63%	0.1977	✓	0.35
2026-05-11	oos	0.10473	0.103317	-1.35%	0.11052	+5.53%	0.0743	✗	0.45
2026-05-10	oos	0.09826	0.09692	-1.36%	0.10473	+6.58%	0.0805	✗	0.51
2026-05-09	oos	0.09627	0.095372	-0.93%	0.09826	+2.07%	0.0205	✗	0.49
2026-05-08	oos	0.09008	0.089539	-0.60%	0.09627	+6.87%	0.0697	✗	0.49
2026-05-07	oos	0.091955	0.091312	-0.70%	0.09008	-2.04%	0.0147	✓	0.48
2026-05-06	oos	0.088045	0.087546	-0.57%	0.091955	+4.44%	0.0599	✗	0.61
2026-05-05	oos	0.09052	0.089976	-0.60%	0.088045	-2.73%	0.0257	✓	0.61
2026-05-04	oos	0.09472	0.09405	-0.71%	0.09052	-4.43%	0.0466	✓	0.64
2026-05-03	oos	0.09896	0.098102	-0.87%	0.09472	-4.28%	0.0462	✓	0.68
2026-05-02	oos	0.11639	0.11505	-1.15%	0.09896	-14.98%	0.1497	✓	0.59
2026-05-01	oos	0.11018	0.108982	-1.09%	0.11639	+5.64%	0.0624	✗	0.59
2026-04-30	oos	0.11237	0.111191	-1.05%	0.11018	-1.95%	0.0252	✓	0.64
2026-04-29	oos	0.12989	0.128359	-1.18%	0.11237	-13.49%	0.1380	✓	0.69
2026-04-28	oos	0.13847	0.136763	-1.23%	0.12989	-6.20%	0.0441	✓	1.00
2026-04-27	oos	0.136965	0.134877	-1.52%	0.13847	+1.10%	0.0399	✗	1.00
2026-04-26	oos	0.13381	0.132257	-1.16%	0.136965	+2.36%	0.0518	✗	1.00
2026-04-25	oos	0.134675	0.132942	-1.29%	0.13381	-0.64%	0.0066	✓	1.00
2026-04-24	oos	0.122685	0.121292	-1.14%	0.134675	+9.77%	0.1022	✗	1.00
2026-04-23	oos	0.13582	0.133699	-1.56%	0.122685	-9.67%	0.0754	✓	1.00
2026-04-22	oos	0.11474	0.11343	-1.14%	0.13582	+18.37%	0.1792	✗	1.00
2026-04-21	oos	0.13065	0.127405	-2.48%	0.11474	-12.18%	0.1288	✓	1.00
2026-04-20	oos	0.11396	0.110894	-2.69%	0.13065	+14.65%	0.1576	✗	1.00
2026-04-19	oos	0.0862	0.084989	-1.40%	0.11396	+32.20%	0.2660	✗	1.00
2026-04-18	oos	0.09122	0.089911	-1.44%	0.0862	-5.50%	0.0166	✓	1.00
2026-04-17	oos	0.12325	0.120162	-2.51%	0.09122	-25.99%	0.2578	✓	1.00
2026-04-16	oos	0.16615	0.157509	-5.20%	0.12325	-25.82%	0.2707	✓	1.00
2026-04-15	oos	0.085535	0.083776	-2.06%	0.16615	+94.25%	0.6804	✗	1.00
2026-04-14	oos	0.075145	0.073995	-1.53%	0.085535	+13.83%	0.1361	✗	1.00
2026-04-13	oos	0.0657	0.064764	-1.43%	0.075145	+14.38%	0.1523	✗	1.00
2026-04-12	oos	0.059505	0.058902	-1.01%	0.0657	+10.41%	0.0584	✗	1.00
2026-04-11	oos	0.054685	0.054213	-0.86%	0.059505	+8.81%	0.1256	✗	1.00
2026-04-10	oos	0.053855	0.053385	-0.87%	0.054685	+1.54%	0.0228	✗	1.00
2026-04-09	oos	0.05359	0.053114	-0.89%	0.053855	+0.49%	0.0027	✓	1.00
2026-04-08	oos	0.06194	0.061387	-0.89%	0.05359	-13.48%	0.1458	✓	1.00