2022-01-20 · +7d

gru_s8 · in-sample — the model trained on this date · 140 tokens predicted

These numbers are in-sample. The model was trained on this date, so predicted-vs-actual agreement here is not evidence of skill.

+1d +7d +30d asset cohort only

rank IC

-0.0352

140 of 140 tokens assessed

long-short decile

-9.55%

realised beta-adjusted alpha

direction hit

78.6%

in alpha space · 82.9% on raw price

BTC over horizon

-8.56%

the unhedgeable market factor

Predicted vs actual (140 rows, sorted by pred)

token	name	chain	anchor px	pred px ▾	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d	vol 30d	target
NAKA	Nakamoto Games	Polygon	0.6721	0.68444	+1.84%	0.4535	-32.52%	0.3151	✗	1.08	2.5M	2022-01-27
ENS	Ethereum Name Service	Ethereum	21.12	21.4343	+1.49%	16.82	-20.36%	0.0751	✗	1.87	4.1M	2022-01-27
PEOPLE	ConstitutionDAO	Ethereum	0.0529	0.053484	+1.10%	0.0541	+2.27%	0.1010	✓	1.00	23.9M	2022-01-27
LRC	Loopring	Ethereum	1.0653	1.0756	+0.97%	0.9645	-9.46%	0.0650	✓	1.94	1.2M	2022-01-27
XVS	Venus	Ethereum	11.36	11.4608	+0.89%	8.39	-26.14%	0.2074	✗	1.17	2.9M	2022-01-27
SPELL	Spell	Ethereum	0.01207	0.012148	+0.65%	0.00534	-55.76%	0.6085	✗	2.38	23.2M	2022-01-27
SOL	Solana	Solana	127.52	128.3077	+0.62%	89.55	-29.78%	0.2556	✗	1.16	142.2M	2022-01-27
LCX	LCX	Ethereum	0.1141	0.114747	+0.57%	0.0947	-17.00%	0.0763	✗	1.29	2.0M	2022-01-27
DEXE	DeXe	Ethereum	7.97	8.0098	+0.50%	6.37	-20.08%	0.2285	✗	0.01	1.2M	2022-01-27
OXT	Orchid Protocol	Ethereum	0.2832	0.284522	+0.47%	0.2343	-17.27%	0.0788	✗	1.29	1.9M	2022-01-27
MASK	Mask Network	Ethereum	7.96	7.9953	+0.44%	5.62	-29.40%	0.2862	✗	0.74	1.0M	2022-01-27
GITCOIN	GITCOIN		9.432	9.4653	+0.35%	6.745	-28.49%	0.3283	✗	0.12	38k	2022-01-27
RLC	iExec RLC	Ethereum	2.35	2.358	+0.34%	1.76	-25.11%	0.1732	✗	1.33	3.1M	2022-01-27
EWT	Energy Web Token	Ethereum	6.92	6.9417	+0.31%	5.873	-15.13%	0.1038	✗	0.71	163k	2022-01-27
COMP	Compound	Ethereum	162.17	162.5171	+0.21%	121.94	-24.81%	0.1809	✗	1.19	95k	2022-01-27
QNT	Quant	Ethereum	132.32	132.5905	+0.20%	93.16	-29.59%	0.2684	✗	0.94	6.7M	2022-01-27
FIL	Filecoin	Filecoin	26.19	26.2352	+0.17%	19.21	-26.65%	0.2121	✗	1.11	14.5M	2022-01-27
DOT	Polkadot	Polkadot	23	23.0307	+0.13%	18.13	-21.17%	0.1166	✗	1.37	58.5M	2022-01-27
1INCH	1INCH	Ethereum	2.03	2.0323	+0.11%	1.59	-21.67%	0.1493	✗	1.07	2.7M	2022-01-27
TRX	TRON	Tron	0.067694	0.067721	+0.04%	0.056453	-16.61%	0.0967	✗	0.95	486k	2022-01-27
DOGE	Dogecoin	Dogecoin	0.155509	0.155559	+0.03%	0.141443	-9.05%	0.0041	✓	1.11	6.5M	2022-01-27
ETH	Ethereum	Ethereum	3,000.94	3,001.52	+0.02%	2,425.82	-19.16%	0.1165	✗	1.08	485.8M	2022-01-27
BTC	Bitcoin	Bitcoin	40,670.97	40,652.63	-0.05%	37,188.37	-8.56%	0.0005	✓	1.00	636.6M	2022-01-27
TKO	Tokocrypto	Binance Smart Chain	0.939	0.938528	-0.05%	0.725	-22.79%	0.1694	✓	0.99	2.0M	2022-01-27
AUCTION	Bounce	Ethereum	18.34	18.3293	-0.06%	13.95	-23.94%	0.1826	✓	1.01	807k	2022-01-27
RAD	Radworks	Ethereum	6.89	6.8847	-0.08%	5.07	-26.42%	0.2266	✓	0.89	1.0M	2022-01-27
BEL	Bella Protocol	Ethereum	1.143	1.1421	-0.08%	0.861	-24.67%	0.1580	✓	1.39	2.3M	2022-01-27
QTUM	Qtum	Qtum	7.057	7.047	-0.14%	5.5654	-21.14%	0.1063	✓	1.45	251k	2022-01-27
UNI	Uniswap	Ethereum	14.49	14.466	-0.17%	10.32	-28.78%	0.2193	✓	1.32	12.4M	2022-01-27
CTK	Shentu	Osmosis	1.272	1.2699	-0.17%	1.42	+11.64%	0.2360	✗	1.39	4.0M	2022-01-27
ARPA	ARPA	Ethereum	0.0736	0.073431	-0.23%	0.065	-11.68%	0.0048	✗	1.42	826k	2022-01-27
CERE	Cere Network	Ethereum	0.0452	0.045092	-0.24%	0.0357	-21.02%	0.1104	✓	1.38	1.2M	2022-01-27
AGLD	Adventure Gold	Ethereum	1.11	1.107	-0.27%	0.81	-27.03%	0.1621	✓	1.68	556k	2022-01-27
ATM	Atletico Madrid Fan Token	Solana	6.14	6.12	-0.33%	5.12	-16.61%	0.1188	✓	0.67	505k	2022-01-27
SUPER	SuperVerse	Ethereum	0.89	0.887012	-0.34%	0.65	-26.97%	0.1396	✓	1.91	1.3M	2022-01-27
OGN	Origin Token	Ethereum	0.428	0.426552	-0.34%	0.314	-26.64%	0.1867	✓	1.34	1.8M	2022-01-27
XTZ	Tezos	Tezos	3.715	3.7017	-0.36%	2.9095	-21.68%	0.1162	✓	1.39	3.1M	2022-01-27
XLM	Stellar	Stellar	0.231498	0.230657	-0.36%	0.194019	-16.19%	0.0789	✓	1.05	24.4M	2022-01-27
LINK	Chainlink	Ethereum	20.18	20.1013	-0.39%	15.23	-24.53%	0.1681	✓	1.22	73.6M	2022-01-27
CBK	Cobak	Ethereum	2.539	2.529	-0.39%	2.121	-16.46%	0.0858	✓	1.01	24k	2022-01-27
ZEN	Horizen	Base	47.6	47.4034	-0.41%	36.7	-22.90%	0.1207	✓	1.51	620k	2022-01-27
XVG	Verge	native	0.01234	0.012288	-0.42%	0.00965	-21.80%	0.1292	✓	1.26	1.8M	2022-01-27
LEO	LEO Token	Ethereum	3.7088	3.6928	-0.43%	3.4851	-6.03%	0.0625	✓	-0.05	371k	2022-01-27
BAR	FC Barcelona Fan Token	Solana	7.38	7.3475	-0.44%	5.84	-20.87%	0.1722	✓	0.64	652k	2022-01-27
BCH	Bitcoin Cash	Bitcoin Cash	357.74	356.1578	-0.44%	289.64	-19.04%	0.1149	✓	1.03	6.6M	2022-01-27
SUN	Sun Token	Tron	0.018378	0.018296	-0.44%	0.014097	-23.29%	0.1512	✓	1.22	2.7M	2022-01-27
UOS	Ultra	Ethereum	1.1313	1.1262	-0.45%	0.99692	-11.88%	0.0258	✓	1.07	2.4M	2022-01-27
BAT	Basic Attention	Ethereum	0.90658	0.902415	-0.46%	0.83214	-8.21%	0.0805	✗	1.80	866k	2022-01-27
NMR	Numeraire	Ethereum	25.43	25.3128	-0.46%	26.76	+5.23%	0.1202	✗	0.72	342k	2022-01-27
MTL	Metal DAO	Metal L2	1.679	1.6711	-0.47%	1.399	-16.68%	0.0727	✓	1.17	1.8M	2022-01-27
ORBS	Orbs	Ethereum	0.0723	0.071948	-0.49%	0.0638	-11.76%	0.0210	✓	1.11	21k	2022-01-27
XEM	NEM	native	0.1095	0.10896	-0.49%	0.0984	-10.14%	0.0065	✓	1.07	41k	2022-01-27
XYM	Symbol	native	0.1782	0.177308	-0.50%	0.1614	-9.43%	0.0324	✓	0.69	573k	2022-01-27
HIVE	Hive	native	1.0699	1.0644	-0.51%	0.8838	-17.39%	0.0578	✓	1.43	3.7M	2022-01-27
SC	Siacoin	native	0.01217	0.012107	-0.51%	0.00962	-20.95%	0.1389	✓	1.02	641k	2022-01-27
XYO	XYO Network	Ethereum	0.026039	0.025895	-0.55%	0.020242	-22.26%	0.1530	✓	1.04	3.9M	2022-01-27
SHIB	Shiba Inu	Ethereum	0.00002648	0.000026331	-0.56%	0.00002125	-19.75%	0.0934	✓	1.35	1.7M	2022-01-27
WBTC	Wrapped Bitcoin	Ethereum	41,418.10	41,181.94	-0.57%	37,269.30	-10.02%	0.0118	✓	0.98	16k	2022-01-27
XEC	eCash	native	0.00009053	0.000089999	-0.59%	0.00007022	-22.43%	0.1566	✓	1.02	6.5M	2022-01-27
BCHSV	Bitcoin Cash SV		104.32	103.706	-0.59%	89.31	-14.39%	0.0631	✓	0.96	1.8M	2022-01-27
NANO	nanopay	Base	2.8203	2.8024	-0.64%	2.3156	-17.90%	0.0874	✓	1.16	665k	2022-01-27
BNT	Bancor Network	Ethereum	2.8	2.7816	-0.66%	2.3	-17.86%	0.1007	✓	1.00	855k	2022-01-27
MOVR	Moonriver	Base	119.9355	119.1208	-0.68%	73.6045	-38.63%	0.3775	✓	1.16	489k	2022-01-27
RIF	Rootstock Infrastructure Framework	Ethereum	0.1666	0.165391	-0.73%	0.1146	-31.21%	0.2850	✓	0.91	362k	2022-01-27
CWEB	Coinweb	Ethereum	0.07094	0.070425	-0.73%	0.050557	-28.73%	0.2419	✓	1.00	682k	2022-01-27
JUV	Juventus Fan Token	Solana	7.4	7.3458	-0.73%	5.9	-20.27%	0.1505	✓	0.77	638k	2022-01-27
ASM	Assemble AI	Ethereum	0.06885	0.068339	-0.74%	0.04978	-27.70%	0.1940	✓	1.37	2.1M	2022-01-27
SUSHI	Sushi	Ethereum	5.81	5.7666	-0.75%	4.05	-30.29%	0.2369	✓	1.30	17.0M	2022-01-27
ETC	Ethereum Classic	native	29.37	29.1484	-0.75%	24.33	-17.16%	0.0833	✓	1.09	3.3M	2022-01-27
XPR	XPR Network	Ethereum	0.01227	0.012176	-0.76%	0.01041	-15.16%	0.0384	✓	1.32	2.1M	2022-01-27
AMP	Amp	Ethereum	0.03533	0.035046	-0.80%	0.02909	-17.66%	0.1031	✓	0.93	8.3M	2022-01-27
GRT	The Graph	Ethereum	0.5001	0.496054	-0.81%	0.4054	-18.94%	0.0844	✓	1.31	10.8M	2022-01-27
LSK	Lisk	Ethereum	1.8707	1.8548	-0.85%	1.5616	-16.52%	0.0697	✓	1.14	89k	2022-01-27
STORJ	Storj	Ethereum	1.3945	1.3827	-0.85%	1.0754	-22.89%	0.1701	✓	0.91	402k	2022-01-27
KSM	Kusama	Hydration	239.61	237.5507	-0.86%	164.64	-31.29%	0.2591	✓	1.20	1.3M	2022-01-27
ZRX	0x Protocol	Ethereum	0.655547	0.649866	-0.87%	0.530399	-19.09%	0.0990	✓	1.16	2.3M	2022-01-27
LTC	Litecoin	Litecoin	129.8	128.6671	-0.87%	106.92	-17.63%	0.0637	✓	1.36	30.5M	2022-01-27
AXS	Axie Infinity	Ethereum	69.09	68.4837	-0.88%	47.47	-31.29%	0.2670	✓	1.11	6.3M	2022-01-27
DNT	district0x	Ethereum	0.1002	0.099269	-0.93%	0.0794	-20.76%	0.1229	✓	1.12	244k	2022-01-27
TRAC	OriginTrail	Ethereum	0.8682	0.860028	-0.94%	0.5781	-33.41%	0.2712	✓	1.41	1.4M	2022-01-27
VSYS	V.SYSTEMS	native	0.01551	0.015364	-0.94%	0.01439	-7.22%	0.0079	✓	0.82	21k	2022-01-27
GT	Gate	Ethereum	7.0322	6.9642	-0.97%	6.5312	-7.12%	0.0131	✗	0.86	4.3M	2022-01-27
ZEC	Zcash	Zcash	118.84	117.6889	-0.97%	88.89	-25.20%	0.1620	✓	1.33	8.4M	2022-01-27
DODO	DODO	Ethereum	0.682	0.675349	-0.98%	0.482	-29.33%	0.2019	✓	1.51	8.0M	2022-01-27
CTSI	Cartesi	Ethereum	0.5606	0.555021	-1.00%	0.4474	-20.19%	0.0910	✓	1.39	2.6M	2022-01-27
MANA	Decentraland	Ethereum	2.6385	2.6118	-1.01%	2.2527	-14.62%	0.0542	✓	1.05	4.3M	2022-01-27
ANKR	Ankr Network	Ethereum	0.08157	0.080731	-1.03%	0.07195	-11.79%	0.0488	✓	0.74	56k	2022-01-27
BAND	Band	Ethereum	4.68	4.6319	-1.03%	3.38	-27.78%	0.2143	✓	1.13	2.3M	2022-01-27
OMG	OMG Network	Ethereum	5.2113	5.1577	-1.03%	4.2126	-19.16%	0.0925	✓	1.23	443k	2022-01-27
ALGO	Algorand	Algorand	1.1614	1.1494	-1.03%	0.9364	-19.37%	0.0962	✓	1.22	30.5M	2022-01-27
KCS	KuCoin	native	19.429	19.2287	-1.03%	16.064	-17.32%	0.0344	✓	1.62	10.7M	2022-01-27
SKL	SKALE	Ethereum	0.1484	0.146764	-1.10%	0.1127	-24.06%	0.1508	✓	1.27	4.2M	2022-01-27
UMA	UMA	Ethereum	7.75	7.6641	-1.11%	5.67	-26.84%	0.2138	✓	0.98	3.9M	2022-01-27
DASH	Dash	Dash	121.15	119.7654	-1.14%	91.73	-24.28%	0.1588	✓	1.20	2.8M	2022-01-27
TWT	Trust Wallet	Binance Smart Chain	0.6442	0.636834	-1.14%	0.5092	-20.96%	0.1072	✓	1.30	3.2M	2022-01-27
IMX	Immutable	Ethereum	3.36	3.321	-1.16%	2.65	-21.13%	0.0943	✓	1.47	2.2M	2022-01-27
XMR	Monero	Monero	188.73	186.5136	-1.17%	144.6	-23.38%	0.1650	✓	1.00	2.7M	2022-01-27
GTC	Gitcoin	Ethereum	9.52	9.4063	-1.19%	6.75	-29.10%	0.3157	✓	0.18	3.1M	2022-01-27
DKA	dKargo	Ethereum	0.0964	0.095242	-1.20%	0.08437	-12.48%	0.0176	✓	1.16	34k	2022-01-27
PORTO	FC Porto	Binance Smart Chain	3.1598	3.1218	-1.20%	2.7628	-12.56%	0.0178	✓	1.17	2.1M	2022-01-27
MED	Medibloc	Osmosis	0.04537	0.04482	-1.21%	0.0403	-11.17%	0.0078	✓	1.10	24k	2022-01-27
ENJ	Enjin Coin	Ethereum	2.111	2.0853	-1.22%	1.58	-25.15%	0.1747	✓	1.15	1.9M	2022-01-27
AAVE	Aave	Ethereum	198.37	195.9354	-1.23%	144.54	-27.14%	0.1953	✓	1.22	17.6M	2022-01-27
DYDX	dYdX	Cosmos	7.481	7.387	-1.26%	5.722	-23.51%	0.1401	✓	1.29	301k	2022-01-27
TRB	Tellor Tributes	Ethereum	24.39	24.0776	-1.28%	18.67	-23.45%	0.1144	✓	1.56	1.0M	2022-01-27
ACM	AC Milan Fan Token	Solana	4.731	4.6702	-1.29%	3.89	-17.78%	0.1222	✓	0.68	445k	2022-01-27
AVAX	Avalanche	Avalanche	79.35	78.3217	-1.30%	64.73	-18.42%	0.0814	✓	1.22	87.3M	2022-01-27
PSG	Paris Saint-Germain Fan Token	Solana	14.59	14.4004	-1.30%	12.75	-12.61%	0.0608	✓	0.68	813k	2022-01-27
CITY	Manchester City Fan Token	Solana	10.09	9.9577	-1.31%	8.93	-11.50%	0.0420	✓	0.75	800k	2022-01-27
ICP	Internet Computer	Ethereum	24.98	24.6522	-1.31%	19.61	-21.50%	0.0999	✓	1.44	34.3M	2022-01-27
BICO	Biconomy	Ethereum	3.06	3.0198	-1.31%	1.95	-36.27%	0.3208	✓	1.30	7.8M	2022-01-27
ADA	Cardano	Cardano	1.2589	1.2421	-1.33%	1.0428	-17.17%	0.0726	✓	1.14	100.6M	2022-01-27
GODS	Gods Unchained	Ethereum	2.79	2.7522	-1.36%	2.23	-20.07%	0.0943	✓	1.30	2.7M	2022-01-27
CHZ	Chiliz	Ethereum	0.2346	0.231391	-1.37%	0.1754	-25.23%	0.1553	✓	1.36	4.0M	2022-01-27
SNX	Synthetix	Ethereum	4.78	4.7141	-1.38%	4.57	-4.39%	0.0770	✗	1.21	3.2M	2022-01-27
OG	OG Fan Token	Solana	3.861	3.8071	-1.40%	3.107	-19.53%	0.1315	✓	0.80	1.1M	2022-01-27
LAZIO	Lazio Fan Token	Binance Smart Chain	3.9838	3.925	-1.48%	3.0464	-23.53%	0.1476	✓	1.18	3.9M	2022-01-27
PHA	PHALA	Ethereum	0.328	0.323149	-1.48%	0.243	-25.91%	0.2137	✓	0.80	51k	2022-01-27
IOTA	IOTA	IOTA	1.0173	1.0013	-1.58%	0.8032	-21.05%	0.1300	✓	1.01	22.7M	2022-01-27
YFI	yearn.finance	Ethereum	31,414.30	30,902.93	-1.63%	23,910.78	-23.89%	0.1947	✓	0.69	21.5M	2022-01-27
ACH	Alchemy Pay	Ethereum	0.050637	0.049757	-1.74%	0.038232	-24.50%	0.1556	✓	1.20	8.4M	2022-01-27
LPT	Livepeer	Ethereum	30.25	29.7155	-1.77%	24.3	-19.67%	0.0507	✓	1.68	2.7M	2022-01-27
JASMY	JasmyCoin	Ethereum	0.06785	0.066637	-1.79%	0.04646	-31.53%	0.2476	✓	1.26	12.0M	2022-01-27
MINA	Mina Protocol	native	3.35	3.2851	-1.94%	2.26	-32.54%	0.2764	✓	1.09	752k	2022-01-27
CVC	Civic	Ethereum	0.2825	0.276641	-2.07%	0.2367	-16.21%	0.0627	✓	1.04	397k	2022-01-27
LUNA	Terra	Terra 2	77.41	75.7798	-2.11%	54.08	-30.14%	0.1690	✓	1.88	7.7M	2022-01-27
ASR	AS Roma Fan Token	Solana	3.583	3.5073	-2.11%	2.955	-17.53%	0.1075	✓	0.71	523k	2022-01-27
COTI	COTI	Ethereum	0.3693	0.36052	-2.38%	0.2772	-24.94%	0.1277	✓	1.51	4.3M	2022-01-27
FTT	FTX	Ethereum	45.17	44.0896	-2.39%	38.35	-15.10%	0.0392	✓	1.12	24.7M	2022-01-27
SANTOS	Santos FC Fan Token	Binance Smart Chain	3.095	3.0205	-2.41%	2.637	-14.80%	0.0187	✓	1.73	1.1M	2022-01-27
CRV	Curve DAO	Ethereum	3.97	3.8738	-2.42%	2.79	-29.72%	0.1971	✓	1.46	32.4M	2022-01-27
BFC	Bifrost	Ethereum	0.18914	0.184067	-2.68%	0.17087	-9.66%	0.0670	✗	1.58	6,611	2022-01-27
GLMR	Moonbeam	Base	9.77	9.506	-2.70%	6.617	-32.27%	0.2728	✓	1.00	1.9M	2022-01-27
API3	Api3	Ethereum	4.19	4.0747	-2.75%	3.97	-5.25%	0.0624	✗	0.99	471k	2022-01-27
CELL	Cellframe	Ethereum	1.0839	1.0516	-2.98%	0.8569	-20.94%	0.1141	✓	1.01	108k	2022-01-27
DUSK	DUSK	Ethereum	0.757	0.733072	-3.16%	0.6525	-13.80%	0.0444	✗	1.80	46.2M	2022-01-27
KNC	Kyber Network Crystal	Ethereum	1.5815	1.5277	-3.40%	1.8043	+14.09%	0.2415	✗	0.84	1.3M	2022-01-27
ATOM	Cosmos Hub	Cosmos	38.97	37.5127	-3.74%	30	-23.02%	0.1379	✓	0.96	104.1M	2022-01-27
POWR	Powerledger	Ethereum	0.5776	0.553808	-4.12%	0.5303	-8.19%	0.0800	✗	1.38	1.7M	2022-01-27
METRONOME	METRONOME		3.8114	3.6388	-4.53%	2.7225	-28.57%	0.2221	✓	0.76	2,257	2022-01-27

Δ columns are percentage price moves; alpha err and the hit column are in beta-adjusted log-return space, which is what the model actually predicts. “pending” means the horizon has not matured yet. Rows are capped for readability — add &limit=2000 to widen.