ERG

Ergo · native · gru_s2

token id: #922
symbol: ERG
variant: –
chain: native
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2024-04-29
predictions: 2,667

Track record at +1d

assessed

399

of 400 predictions shown

direction hit

56.4%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0244

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0020

actual -0.0009

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.31945	0.317649	-0.56%	–	pending	–	–	1.39
2026-10-20	oos	0.3475	0.345109	-0.69%	0.31945	-8.07%	0.0733	✓	1.36
2026-10-19	oos	0.32025	0.318507	-0.54%	0.3475	+8.51%	0.0691	✗	1.35
2026-10-18	oos	0.31585	0.314093	-0.56%	0.32025	+1.39%	0.0222	✗	1.34
2026-10-17	oos	0.32405	0.322113	-0.60%	0.31585	-2.53%	0.0299	✓	1.35
2026-10-16	oos	0.3098	0.308037	-0.57%	0.32405	+4.60%	0.0526	✗	1.35
2026-10-15	oos	0.3241	0.321968	-0.66%	0.3098	-4.41%	0.0283	✓	1.33
2026-10-14	oos	0.2956	0.294272	-0.45%	0.3241	+9.64%	0.0875	✗	1.33
2026-10-13	oos	0.311	0.309131	-0.60%	0.2956	-4.95%	0.0205	✓	1.30
2026-10-12	oos	0.3215	0.319772	-0.54%	0.311	-3.27%	0.0495	✓	1.31
2026-10-11	oos	0.32625	0.323889	-0.72%	0.3215	-1.46%	0.0224	✗	1.28
2026-10-10	oos	0.3262	0.323902	-0.70%	0.32625	+0.02%	0.0047	✓	1.29
2026-10-09	oos	0.2942	0.292856	-0.46%	0.3262	+10.88%	0.1021	✗	1.29
2026-10-08	oos	0.3076	0.306166	-0.47%	0.2942	-4.36%	0.0533	✓	1.30
2026-10-07	oos	0.2978	0.296171	-0.55%	0.3076	+3.29%	0.0633	✗	1.33
2026-10-06	oos	0.32115	0.318484	-0.83%	0.2978	-7.27%	0.0327	✓	1.28
2026-10-05	oos	0.3138	0.311581	-0.71%	0.32115	+2.34%	0.0334	✗	1.27
2026-10-04	oos	0.32445	0.322431	-0.62%	0.3138	-3.28%	0.0160	✓	1.26
2026-10-03	oos	0.3062	0.304622	-0.52%	0.32445	+5.96%	0.0373	✗	1.25
2026-10-02	oos	0.3255	0.323653	-0.57%	0.3062	-5.93%	0.0589	✓	1.25
2026-10-01	oos	0.32945	0.327791	-0.50%	0.3255	-1.20%	0.0020	✓	1.25
2026-09-30	oos	0.3314	0.329814	-0.48%	0.32945	-0.59%	0.0204	✓	1.26
2026-09-29	oos	0.3359	0.334322	-0.47%	0.3314	-1.34%	0.0076	✓	1.25
2026-09-28	oos	0.3236	0.322339	-0.39%	0.3359	+3.80%	0.0384	✗	1.27
2026-09-27	oos	0.3311	0.3299	-0.36%	0.3236	-2.27%	0.0038	✓	1.29
2026-09-26	oos	0.3278	0.326796	-0.31%	0.3311	+1.01%	0.0124	✗	1.29
2026-09-25	oos	0.33875	0.337731	-0.30%	0.3278	-3.23%	0.0348	✓	1.29
2026-09-24	oos	0.3396	0.33875	-0.25%	0.33875	-0.25%	0.0045	✗	1.29
2026-09-23	oos	0.3478	0.346838	-0.28%	0.3396	-2.36%	0.0212	✓	1.28
2026-09-22	oos	0.3403	0.339584	-0.21%	0.3478	+2.20%	0.0521	✗	1.32
2026-09-21	oos	0.32345	0.322748	-0.22%	0.3403	+5.21%	0.0590	✗	1.31
2026-09-20	oos	0.2769	0.276504	-0.14%	0.32345	+16.81%	0.0813	✗	1.17
2026-09-19	oos	0.28165	0.281073	-0.20%	0.2769	-1.69%	0.0139	✓	1.16
2026-09-18	oos	0.28615	0.285326	-0.29%	0.28165	-1.57%	0.0181	✓	1.16
2026-09-17	oos	0.2532	0.252691	-0.20%	0.28615	+13.01%	0.0632	✗	1.06
2026-09-16	oos	0.2491	0.248713	-0.16%	0.2532	+1.65%	0.0150	✗	1.06
2026-09-15	oos	0.24205	0.241862	-0.08%	0.2491	+2.91%	0.0217	✗	1.06
2026-09-14	oos	0.2686	0.268071	-0.20%	0.24205	-9.88%	0.0688	✓	0.99
2026-09-13	oos	0.2597	0.259292	-0.16%	0.2686	+3.43%	0.0177	✗	0.99
2026-09-12	oos	0.2606	0.260211	-0.15%	0.2597	-0.35%	0.0040	✗	0.99
2026-09-11	oos	0.2549	0.254734	-0.06%	0.2606	+2.24%	0.0221	✗	0.99
2026-09-10	oos	0.256	0.255854	-0.06%	0.2549	-0.43%	0.0124	✓	0.99
2026-09-09	oos	0.2494	0.249535	+0.05%	0.256	+2.65%	0.0488	✓	1.03
2026-09-08	oos	0.2522	0.252411	+0.08%	0.2494	-1.11%	0.0098	✗	1.04
2026-09-07	oos	0.2215	0.222873	+0.62%	0.2522	+13.86%	0.1325	✓	1.09
2026-09-06	oos	0.2646	0.265063	+0.18%	0.2215	-16.29%	0.1643	✗	0.97
2026-09-05	oos	0.2593	0.259989	+0.27%	0.2646	+2.04%	0.0114	✓	0.97
2026-09-04	oos	0.2538	0.254681	+0.35%	0.2593	+2.17%	0.0161	✓	0.95
2026-09-03	oos	0.2634	0.2641	+0.27%	0.2538	-3.64%	0.0213	✗	0.94
2026-09-02	oos	0.26055	0.260745	+0.07%	0.2634	+1.09%	0.0401	✗	1.01
2026-09-01	oos	0.2516	0.252078	+0.19%	0.26055	+3.56%	0.0343	✓	1.02
2026-08-31	oos	0.2584	0.258886	+0.19%	0.2516	-2.63%	0.0130	✗	1.04
2026-08-30	oos	0.2469	0.247609	+0.29%	0.2584	+4.66%	0.0309	✓	1.03
2026-08-29	oos	0.2507	0.251353	+0.26%	0.2469	-1.52%	0.0105	✗	1.01
2026-08-28	oos	0.2563	0.256616	+0.12%	0.2507	-2.18%	0.0285	✗	1.01
2026-08-27	oos	0.2586	0.259277	+0.26%	0.2563	-0.89%	0.0204	✓	1.04
2026-08-26	oos	0.2625	0.262797	+0.11%	0.2586	-1.49%	0.0325	✗	1.05
2026-08-25	oos	0.2624	0.262521	+0.05%	0.2625	+0.04%	0.0068	✗	1.05
2026-08-24	oos	0.2673	0.2672	-0.04%	0.2624	-1.83%	0.0120	✓	1.07
2026-08-23	oos	0.2667	0.266265	-0.16%	0.2673	+0.22%	0.0129	✓	1.05
2026-08-22	oos	0.2709	0.270069	-0.31%	0.2667	-1.55%	0.0218	✓	1.06
2026-08-21	oos	0.2675	0.266885	-0.23%	0.2709	+1.27%	0.0324	✗	1.07
2026-08-20	oos	0.2429	0.242065	-0.34%	0.2675	+10.13%	0.0283	✗	1.02
2026-08-19	oos	0.2155	0.214763	-0.34%	0.2429	+12.71%	0.0770	✗	0.88
2026-08-18	oos	0.2014	0.2006	-0.40%	0.2155	+7.00%	0.0124	✗	0.86
2026-08-17	oos	0.2026	0.201944	-0.32%	0.2014	-0.59%	0.0054	✓	0.86
2026-08-16	oos	0.2051	0.204938	-0.08%	0.2026	-1.22%	0.0345	✓	0.89
2026-08-15	oos	0.2025	0.202503	+0.00%	0.2051	+1.28%	0.0153	✓	0.89
2026-08-14	oos	0.207	0.206967	-0.02%	0.2025	-2.17%	0.0224	✓	0.90
2026-08-13	oos	0.209	0.208859	-0.07%	0.207	-0.96%	0.0025	✓	0.91
2026-08-12	oos	0.2159	0.215608	-0.14%	0.209	-3.20%	0.0313	✓	0.90
2026-08-11	oos	0.2216	0.221139	-0.21%	0.2159	-2.57%	0.0223	✓	0.88
2026-08-10	oos	0.2382	0.237426	-0.32%	0.2216	-6.97%	0.0638	✓	0.87
2026-08-09	oos	0.2358	0.234893	-0.38%	0.2382	+1.02%	0.0270	✗	0.89
2026-08-08	oos	0.2388	0.237702	-0.46%	0.2358	-1.26%	0.0072	✓	0.89
2026-08-07	oos	0.2356	0.234359	-0.53%	0.2388	+1.36%	0.0185	✗	0.89
2026-08-06	oos	0.2341	0.232934	-0.50%	0.2356	+0.64%	0.0028	✓	0.88
2026-08-05	oos	0.2253	0.22402	-0.57%	0.2341	+3.91%	0.0486	✗	0.89
2026-08-04	oos	0.222	0.220843	-0.52%	0.2253	+1.49%	0.0123	✗	0.89
2026-08-03	oos	0.2162	0.215364	-0.39%	0.222	+2.68%	0.0223	✗	0.88
2026-08-02	oos	0.2141	0.21323	-0.41%	0.2162	+0.98%	0.0143	✗	0.90
2026-08-01	oos	0.202	0.201458	-0.27%	0.2141	+5.99%	0.0507	✗	0.88
2026-07-31	oos	0.2046	0.204036	-0.28%	0.202	-1.27%	0.0092	✓	0.88
2026-07-30	oos	0.2073	0.206698	-0.29%	0.2046	-1.30%	0.0162	✗	0.89
2026-07-29	oos	0.2084	0.207959	-0.21%	0.2073	-0.53%	0.0147	✓	0.89
2026-07-28	oos	0.2074	0.206998	-0.19%	0.2084	+0.48%	0.0061	✗	0.89
2026-07-27	oos	0.2007	0.200401	-0.15%	0.2074	+3.34%	0.0322	✗	0.89
2026-07-26	oos	0.2085	0.208256	-0.12%	0.2007	-3.74%	0.0146	✓	0.87
2026-07-25	oos	0.2153	0.214883	-0.19%	0.2085	-3.16%	0.0447	✓	0.90
2026-07-24	oos	0.2163	0.215834	-0.22%	0.2153	-0.46%	0.0054	✓	0.89
2026-07-23	oos	0.2203	0.219919	-0.17%	0.2163	-1.82%	0.0032	✓	0.89
2026-07-22	oos	0.2181	0.217971	-0.06%	0.2203	+1.01%	0.0249	✗	0.90
2026-07-21	oos	0.2235	0.223367	-0.06%	0.2181	-2.42%	0.0180	✓	0.90
2026-07-20	oos	0.2198	0.219611	-0.09%	0.2235	+1.68%	0.0001	✓	0.89
2026-07-19	oos	0.2206	0.220373	-0.10%	0.2198	-0.36%	0.0099	✓	0.89
2026-07-18	oos	0.2211	0.220863	-0.11%	0.2206	-0.23%	0.0003	✓	0.86
2026-07-17	oos	0.2211	0.220816	-0.13%	0.2211	+0.00%	0.0108	✓	0.86
2026-07-16	oos	0.22	0.219701	-0.14%	0.2211	+0.50%	0.0047	✗	0.86
2026-07-15	oos	0.22	0.21974	-0.12%	0.22	+0.00%	0.0140	✗	0.87
2026-07-14	oos	0.2129	0.212808	-0.04%	0.22	+3.33%	0.0369	✗	0.88
2026-07-13	oos	0.2103	0.210103	-0.09%	0.2129	+1.24%	0.0261	✓	0.92
2026-07-12	oos	0.2215	0.221281	-0.10%	0.2103	-5.06%	0.0299	✓	0.90
2026-07-11	oos	0.2202	0.220048	-0.07%	0.2215	+0.59%	0.0070	✗	0.86
2026-07-10	oos	0.2189	0.218812	-0.04%	0.2202	+0.59%	0.0112	✗	0.87
2026-07-09	oos	0.2182	0.2181	-0.05%	0.2189	+0.32%	0.0095	✓	0.88
2026-07-08	oos	0.2216	0.221387	-0.10%	0.2182	-1.53%	0.0279	✓	0.90
2026-07-07	oos	0.2215	0.221338	-0.07%	0.2216	+0.05%	0.0168	✗	0.90
2026-07-06	oos	0.2231	0.222864	-0.11%	0.2215	-0.72%	0.0034	✗	0.90
2026-07-05	oos	0.2159	0.215745	-0.07%	0.2231	+3.33%	0.0280	✗	0.84
2026-07-04	oos	0.2129	0.212771	-0.06%	0.2159	+1.41%	0.0080	✗	0.84
2026-07-03	oos	0.2128	0.212607	-0.09%	0.2129	+0.05%	0.0061	✓	0.83
2026-07-02	oos	0.2079	0.207702	-0.10%	0.2128	+2.36%	0.0104	✗	0.83
2026-07-01	oos	0.2034	0.203189	-0.10%	0.2079	+2.21%	0.0022	✗	0.82
2026-06-30	oos	0.1904	0.190701	+0.16%	0.2034	+6.83%	0.0453	✓	0.79
2026-06-29	oos	0.2025	0.202639	+0.07%	0.1904	-5.98%	0.0413	✗	0.76
2026-06-28	oos	0.2027	0.202905	+0.10%	0.2025	-0.10%	0.0108	✗	0.76
2026-06-27	oos	0.2048	0.204932	+0.06%	0.2027	-1.03%	0.0050	✗	0.77
2026-06-26	oos	0.2051	0.205142	+0.02%	0.2048	-0.15%	0.0008	✗	0.77
2026-06-25	oos	0.2124	0.212166	-0.11%	0.2051	-3.44%	0.0377	✓	0.78
2026-06-24	oos	0.2201	0.219699	-0.18%	0.2124	-3.50%	0.0179	✓	0.75
2026-06-23	oos	0.2215	0.221125	-0.17%	0.2201	-0.63%	0.0155	✗	0.75
2026-06-22	oos	0.221	0.220649	-0.16%	0.2215	+0.23%	0.0195	✗	0.76
2026-06-21	oos	0.2177	0.217399	-0.14%	0.221	+1.52%	0.0079	✗	0.76
2026-06-20	oos	0.2176	0.217311	-0.13%	0.2177	+0.05%	0.0137	✗	0.77
2026-06-19	oos	0.2143	0.214044	-0.12%	0.2176	+1.54%	0.0075	✗	0.77
2026-06-18	oos	0.2135	0.213238	-0.12%	0.2143	+0.37%	0.0022	✓	0.76
2026-06-17	oos	0.2198	0.219465	-0.15%	0.2135	-2.87%	0.0093	✓	0.74
2026-06-16	oos	0.2256	0.225205	-0.18%	0.2198	-2.57%	0.0107	✓	0.75
2026-06-15	oos	0.2333	0.232771	-0.23%	0.2256	-3.30%	0.0237	✓	0.76
2026-06-14	oos	0.2264	0.225893	-0.22%	0.2333	+3.05%	0.0257	✗	0.76
2026-06-13	oos	0.2221	0.221551	-0.25%	0.2264	+1.94%	0.0068	✗	0.76
2026-06-12	oos	0.2221	0.221477	-0.28%	0.2221	+0.00%	0.0080	✓	0.77
2026-06-11	oos	0.2206	0.2199	-0.32%	0.2221	+0.68%	0.0103	✗	0.77
2026-06-10	oos	0.2103	0.209734	-0.27%	0.2206	+4.90%	0.0251	✗	0.75
2026-06-09	oos	0.2162	0.215318	-0.41%	0.2103	-2.73%	0.0207	✓	0.75
2026-06-08	oos	0.2124	0.211393	-0.47%	0.2162	+1.79%	0.0394	✗	0.77
2026-06-07	oos	0.2127	0.211424	-0.60%	0.2124	-0.14%	0.0075	✗	0.76
2026-06-06	oos	0.2096	0.207381	-1.06%	0.2127	+1.48%	0.0043	✓	0.75
2026-06-05	oos	0.2146	0.211945	-1.24%	0.2096	-2.33%	0.0089	✓	0.74
2026-06-04	oos	0.2273	0.225166	-0.94%	0.2146	-5.59%	0.0167	✓	0.71
2026-06-03	oos	0.2368	0.234749	-0.87%	0.2273	-4.01%	0.0299	✓	0.65
2026-06-02	oos	0.2532	0.25213	-0.42%	0.2368	-6.48%	0.0379	✓	0.62
2026-06-01	oos	0.2713	0.270712	-0.22%	0.2532	-6.67%	0.0351	✓	0.47
2026-05-31	oos	0.2757	0.275074	-0.23%	0.2713	-1.60%	0.0010	✓	0.48
2026-05-30	oos	0.2721	0.271538	-0.21%	0.2757	+1.32%	0.0163	✗	0.43
2026-05-29	oos	0.2634	0.262985	-0.16%	0.2721	+3.30%	0.0317	✗	0.43
2026-05-28	oos	0.2594	0.259066	-0.13%	0.2634	+1.54%	0.0175	✗	0.44
2026-05-27	oos	0.2701	0.269669	-0.16%	0.2594	-3.96%	0.0341	✓	0.44
2026-05-26	oos	0.2839	0.283346	-0.20%	0.2701	-4.86%	0.0395	✓	0.42
2026-05-25	oos	0.2783	0.27796	-0.12%	0.2839	+2.01%	0.0320	✗	0.58
2026-05-24	oos	0.2851	0.284675	-0.15%	0.2783	-2.39%	0.0247	✓	0.57
2026-05-23	oos	0.2851	0.2847	-0.14%	0.2851	+0.00%	0.0008	✓	0.53
2026-05-22	oos	0.2834	0.283018	-0.13%	0.2851	+0.60%	0.0011	✓	0.53
2026-05-21	oos	0.2818	0.281726	-0.03%	0.2834	+0.57%	0.0209	✗	0.55
2026-05-20	oos	0.2889	0.288517	-0.13%	0.2818	-2.46%	0.0241	✓	0.54
2026-05-19	oos	0.2876	0.287052	-0.19%	0.2889	+0.45%	0.0015	✓	0.53
2026-05-18	oos	0.285	0.284553	-0.16%	0.2876	+0.91%	0.0119	✗	0.54
2026-05-17	oos	0.2835	0.283006	-0.17%	0.285	+0.53%	0.0102	✗	0.53
2026-05-16	oos	0.2893	0.288027	-0.44%	0.2835	-2.00%	0.0111	✓	0.53
2026-05-15	oos	0.3044	0.302217	-0.72%	0.2893	-4.96%	0.0369	✓	0.56
2026-05-14	oos	0.3073	0.306147	-0.38%	0.3044	-0.94%	0.0086	✗	0.57
2026-05-13	oos	0.3072	0.305678	-0.50%	0.3073	+0.03%	0.0076	✓	0.57
2026-05-12	oos	0.3097	0.308836	-0.28%	0.3072	-0.81%	0.0032	✗	0.57
2026-05-11	oos	0.322	0.321121	-0.27%	0.3097	-3.82%	0.0273	✓	0.58
2026-05-10	oos	0.312	0.311471	-0.17%	0.322	+3.21%	0.0366	✗	0.59
2026-05-09	oos	0.3089	0.308202	-0.23%	0.312	+1.00%	0.0011	✓	0.59
2026-05-08	oos	0.3094	0.308659	-0.24%	0.3089	-0.16%	0.0026	✓	0.58
2026-05-07	oos	0.3081	0.307403	-0.23%	0.3094	+0.42%	0.0051	✗	0.58
2026-05-06	oos	0.3159	0.315349	-0.17%	0.3081	-2.47%	0.0104	✓	0.72
2026-05-05	oos	0.3184	0.317849	-0.17%	0.3159	-0.79%	0.0098	✓	0.55
2026-05-04	oos	0.3008	0.300775	-0.01%	0.3184	+5.85%	0.0499	✗	0.54
2026-05-03	oos	0.2986	0.298404	-0.07%	0.3008	+0.74%	0.0004	✓	0.51
2026-05-02	oos	0.3012	0.301407	+0.07%	0.2986	-0.86%	0.0085	✗	0.52
2026-05-01	oos	0.3025	0.302658	+0.05%	0.3012	-0.43%	0.0079	✗	0.53
2026-04-30	oos	0.2967	0.296384	-0.11%	0.3025	+1.95%	0.0066	✗	0.55
2026-04-29	oos	0.297	0.296567	-0.15%	0.2967	-0.10%	0.0036	✓	0.56
2026-04-28	oos	0.3045	0.303995	-0.17%	0.297	-2.46%	0.0191	✓	0.56
2026-04-27	oos	0.3048	0.304727	-0.02%	0.3045	-0.10%	0.0069	✗	0.56
2026-04-26	oos	0.3118	0.311949	+0.05%	0.3048	-2.25%	0.0138	✗	0.56
2026-04-25	oos	0.317	0.316336	-0.21%	0.3118	-1.64%	0.0218	✓	0.56
2026-04-24	oos	0.3129	0.312267	-0.20%	0.317	+1.31%	0.0137	✗	0.56
2026-04-23	oos	0.3148	0.31455	-0.08%	0.3129	-0.60%	0.0006	✓	0.56
2026-04-22	oos	0.3196	0.31917	-0.13%	0.3148	-1.50%	0.0143	✓	0.56
2026-04-21	oos	0.3156	0.314663	-0.30%	0.3196	+1.27%	0.0022	✓	0.56
2026-04-20	oos	0.3163	0.315279	-0.32%	0.3156	-0.22%	0.0025	✓	0.56
2026-04-19	oos	0.3194	0.318034	-0.43%	0.3163	-0.97%	0.0212	✓	0.58
2026-04-18	oos	0.3251	0.32387	-0.38%	0.3194	-1.75%	0.0009	✓	0.58
2026-04-17	oos	0.3307	0.32971	-0.30%	0.3251	-1.69%	0.0038	✓	0.58
2026-04-16	oos	0.3227	0.321379	-0.41%	0.3307	+2.48%	0.0140	✗	0.58
2026-04-15	oos	0.3162	0.31499	-0.38%	0.3227	+2.06%	0.0217	✗	0.57
2026-04-14	oos	0.3113	0.31009	-0.39%	0.3162	+1.57%	0.0144	✗	0.58
2026-04-13	oos	0.3071	0.305992	-0.36%	0.3113	+1.37%	0.0193	✗	0.60
2026-04-12	oos	0.3009	0.299709	-0.40%	0.3071	+2.06%	0.0063	✓	0.60
2026-04-11	oos	0.3148	0.313451	-0.43%	0.3009	-4.42%	0.0216	✓	0.59
2026-04-10	oos	0.3055	0.304435	-0.35%	0.3148	+3.04%	0.0328	✗	0.59
2026-04-09	oos	0.2999	0.29893	-0.32%	0.3055	+1.87%	0.0120	✗	0.59
2026-04-08	oos	0.3008	0.299828	-0.32%	0.2999	-0.30%	0.0056	✓	0.59
2026-04-07	oos	0.2992	0.298252	-0.32%	0.3008	+0.53%	0.0153	✗	0.59
2026-04-06	oos	0.2993	0.298409	-0.30%	0.2992	-0.03%	0.0240	✓	0.61
2026-04-05	oos	0.2963	0.295445	-0.29%	0.2993	+1.01%	0.0143	✗	0.61
2026-04-04	oos	0.2965	0.296097	-0.14%	0.2963	-0.07%	0.0148	✓	0.62
2026-04-03	oos	0.2858	0.285702	-0.03%	0.2965	+3.74%	0.0341	✗	0.62
2026-04-02	oos	0.2881	0.287946	-0.05%	0.2858	-0.80%	0.0081	✓	0.61
2026-04-01	oos	0.2941	0.293763	-0.11%	0.2881	-2.04%	0.0084	✓	0.62
2026-03-31	oos	0.2794	0.279315	-0.03%	0.2941	+5.26%	0.0526	✗	0.62
2026-03-30	oos	0.2749	0.274868	-0.01%	0.2794	+1.64%	0.0026	✗	0.62
2026-03-29	oos	0.2709	0.270896	-0.00%	0.2749	+1.48%	0.0073	✗	0.63
2026-03-28	oos	0.2802	0.279994	-0.07%	0.2709	-3.32%	0.0296	✓	0.63
2026-03-27	oos	0.2859	0.285562	-0.12%	0.2802	-1.99%	0.0186	✓	0.63
2026-03-26	oos	0.2899	0.289267	-0.22%	0.2859	-1.38%	0.0111	✗	0.64
2026-03-25	oos	0.2946	0.294196	-0.14%	0.2899	-1.60%	0.0085	✗	0.64
2026-03-24	oos	0.2932	0.292838	-0.12%	0.2946	+0.48%	0.0010	✓	0.64
2026-03-23	oos	0.2964	0.29609	-0.10%	0.2932	-1.08%	0.0067	✓	0.64
2026-03-22	oos	0.2855	0.285333	-0.06%	0.2964	+3.82%	0.0102	✗	0.64
2026-03-21	oos	0.2883	0.288156	-0.05%	0.2855	-0.97%	0.0007	✗	0.64
2026-03-20	oos	0.2895	0.289456	-0.02%	0.2883	-0.41%	0.0105	✗	0.64
2026-03-19	oos	0.2995	0.299298	-0.07%	0.2895	-3.34%	0.0386	✓	0.64
2026-03-18	oos	0.3148	0.314522	-0.09%	0.2995	-4.86%	0.0365	✓	0.66
2026-03-17	oos	0.3292	0.329021	-0.05%	0.3148	-4.37%	0.0200	✓	0.65
2026-03-16	oos	0.3351	0.334956	-0.04%	0.3292	-1.76%	0.0091	✓	0.65
2026-03-15	oos	0.3261	0.32596	-0.04%	0.3351	+2.76%	0.0098	✗	0.64
2026-03-14	oos	0.3161	0.316022	-0.02%	0.3261	+3.16%	0.0171	✗	0.65
2026-03-13	oos	0.3232	0.323025	-0.05%	0.3161	-2.20%	0.0243	✓	0.64
2026-03-12	oos	0.3165	0.316475	-0.01%	0.3232	+2.12%	0.0173	✗	0.64
2026-03-11	oos	0.3187	0.318677	-0.01%	0.3165	-0.69%	0.0098	✓	0.64
2026-03-10	oos	0.3219	0.321874	-0.01%	0.3187	-0.99%	0.0122	✓	0.64
2026-03-09	oos	0.3212	0.321325	+0.04%	0.3219	+0.22%	0.0124	✗	0.64
2026-03-08	oos	0.3212	0.321719	+0.16%	0.3212	+0.00%	0.0254	✗	0.65
2026-03-07	oos	0.3189	0.319008	+0.03%	0.3212	+0.72%	0.0195	✓	0.65
2026-03-06	oos	0.3199	0.319721	-0.06%	0.3189	-0.31%	0.0056	✗	0.65
2026-03-05	oos	0.3148	0.314921	+0.04%	0.3199	+1.62%	0.0428	✓	0.68
2026-03-04	oos	0.3237	0.32393	+0.07%	0.3148	-2.75%	0.0118	✗	0.67
2026-03-03	oos	0.3307	0.330399	-0.09%	0.3237	-2.12%	0.0651	✓	0.72
2026-03-02	oos	0.3376	0.337288	-0.09%	0.3307	-2.04%	0.0146	✓	0.71
2026-03-01	oos	0.3457	0.344626	-0.31%	0.3376	-2.34%	0.0555	✓	0.77
2026-02-28	oos	0.3555	0.354362	-0.32%	0.3457	-2.76%	0.0105	✓	0.79
2026-02-27	oos	0.3473	0.345985	-0.38%	0.3555	+2.36%	0.0140	✗	0.78
2026-02-26	oos	0.3555	0.354208	-0.36%	0.3473	-2.31%	0.0006	✓	0.78
2026-02-25	oos	0.3599	0.358261	-0.46%	0.3555	-1.22%	0.0019	✓	0.78
2026-02-24	oos	0.3165	0.315098	-0.44%	0.3599	+13.71%	0.0911	✗	0.70
2026-02-23	oos	0.2971	0.296399	-0.24%	0.3165	+6.53%	0.0716	✗	0.69
2026-02-22	oos	0.2942	0.294075	-0.04%	0.2971	+0.99%	0.0426	✗	0.71
2026-02-21	oos	0.3041	0.303916	-0.06%	0.2942	-3.26%	0.0290	✓	0.71
2026-02-20	oos	0.3051	0.304953	-0.05%	0.3041	-0.33%	0.0025	✓	0.76
2026-02-19	oos	0.3108	0.310539	-0.08%	0.3051	-1.83%	0.0291	✓	0.76
2026-02-18	oos	0.3208	0.320438	-0.11%	0.3108	-3.12%	0.0369	✓	0.76
2026-02-17	oos	0.3293	0.328964	-0.10%	0.3208	-2.58%	0.0132	✓	0.76
2026-02-16	oos	0.3295	0.329277	-0.07%	0.3293	-0.06%	0.0159	✗	0.78
2026-02-15	oos	0.3322	0.332023	-0.05%	0.3295	-0.81%	0.0084	✓	0.78
2026-02-14	oos	0.3748	0.374056	-0.20%	0.3322	-11.37%	0.1077	✓	0.76
2026-02-13	oos	0.3708	0.370175	-0.17%	0.3748	+1.08%	0.0017	✓	0.76
2026-02-12	oos	0.3621	0.361872	-0.06%	0.3708	+2.40%	0.0051	✓	0.77
2026-02-11	oos	0.3606	0.360464	-0.04%	0.3621	+0.42%	0.0143	✗	0.79
2026-02-10	oos	0.3798	0.37919	-0.16%	0.3606	-5.06%	0.0295	✓	0.79
2026-02-09	oos	0.3844	0.383465	-0.24%	0.3798	-1.20%	0.0053	✗	0.80
2026-02-08	oos	0.3955	0.394178	-0.33%	0.3844	-2.81%	0.0231	✓	0.79
2026-02-07	oos	0.401	0.399409	-0.40%	0.3955	-1.37%	0.0215	✓	0.79
2026-02-06	oos	0.4073	0.403725	-0.88%	0.401	-1.55%	0.0076	✓	0.78
2026-02-05	oos	0.3562	0.358088	+0.53%	0.4073	+14.35%	0.0479	✓	0.70
2026-02-04	oos	0.3647	0.359895	-1.32%	0.3562	-2.33%	0.1412	✗	1.01
2026-02-03	oos	0.3649	0.3612	-1.01%	0.3647	-0.05%	0.0471	✗	1.04
2026-02-02	oos	0.3573	0.356383	-0.26%	0.3649	+2.13%	0.0689	✗	1.16
2026-02-01	oos	0.3458	0.344444	-0.39%	0.3573	+3.33%	0.0121	✗	1.08
2026-01-31	oos	0.3625	0.361824	-0.19%	0.3458	-4.61%	0.0205	✓	1.10
2026-01-30	oos	0.3901	0.390177	+0.02%	0.3625	-7.08%	0.0000	✓	1.10
2026-01-29	oos	0.4085	0.408447	-0.01%	0.3901	-4.50%	0.0407	✓	1.09
2026-01-28	oos	0.424	0.423824	-0.04%	0.4085	-3.66%	0.0231	✗	1.12
2026-01-27	oos	0.4317	0.4313	-0.09%	0.424	-1.78%	0.0176	✓	1.10
2026-01-26	oos	0.426	0.425657	-0.08%	0.4317	+1.34%	0.0036	✗	1.07
2026-01-25	oos	0.4285	0.428152	-0.08%	0.426	-0.58%	0.0266	✓	1.11
2026-01-24	oos	0.4337	0.431718	-0.46%	0.4285	-1.20%	0.0250	✗	1.13
2026-01-23	oos	0.4331	0.42985	-0.75%	0.4337	+0.14%	0.0141	✗	1.18
2026-01-22	oos	0.4377	0.434396	-0.75%	0.4331	-1.05%	0.0031	✓	1.18
2026-01-21	oos	0.449	0.445916	-0.69%	0.4377	-2.52%	0.0199	✓	1.19
2026-01-20	oos	0.4326	0.431273	-0.31%	0.449	+3.79%	0.0259	✗	1.21
2026-01-19	oos	0.4542	0.451536	-0.59%	0.4326	-4.76%	0.0147	✗	1.23
2026-01-18	oos	0.4629	0.460241	-0.57%	0.4542	-1.88%	0.0011	✓	1.24
2026-01-17	oos	0.474	0.471071	-0.62%	0.4629	-2.34%	0.0016	✓	1.22
2026-01-16	oos	0.4795	0.476307	-0.67%	0.474	-1.15%	0.0003	✓	1.25
2026-01-15	oos	0.4907	0.487307	-0.69%	0.4795	-2.28%	0.0151	✓	1.25
2026-01-14	oos	0.5107	0.508444	-0.44%	0.4907	-3.92%	0.0179	✓	1.24
2026-01-13	oos	0.4585	0.457385	-0.24%	0.5107	+11.38%	0.0906	✗	1.21
2026-01-12	oos	0.4475	0.446347	-0.26%	0.4585	+2.46%	0.0293	✓	1.25
2026-01-11	oos	0.4526	0.451736	-0.19%	0.4475	-1.13%	0.0138	✓	1.25
2026-01-10	oos	0.454	0.453471	-0.12%	0.4526	-0.31%	0.0088	✓	1.25
2026-01-09	oos	0.4606	0.460264	-0.07%	0.454	-1.43%	0.0116	✓	1.35
2026-01-08	oos	0.4526	0.452537	-0.01%	0.4606	+1.77%	0.0251	✗	1.32
2026-01-07	oos	0.4587	0.458426	-0.06%	0.4526	-1.33%	0.0089	✓	1.41
2026-01-06	oos	0.4844	0.484116	-0.06%	0.4587	-5.31%	0.0169	✓	1.40
2026-01-05	oos	0.4995	0.499228	-0.05%	0.4844	-3.02%	0.0279	✓	1.40
2026-01-04	oos	0.4915	0.490896	-0.12%	0.4995	+1.63%	0.0190	✓	1.42
2026-01-03	oos	0.4866	0.486	-0.12%	0.4915	+1.01%	0.0028	✓	1.42
2026-01-02	oos	0.4923	0.491609	-0.14%	0.4866	-1.16%	0.0203	✓	1.42
2026-01-01	oos	0.4832	0.482519	-0.14%	0.4923	+1.88%	0.0007	✓	1.42
2025-12-31	oos	0.4664	0.465857	-0.12%	0.4832	+3.60%	0.0169	✗	1.40
2025-12-30	oos	0.4959	0.495083	-0.16%	0.4664	-5.95%	0.0454	✓	1.39
2025-12-29	oos	0.476	0.475307	-0.15%	0.4959	+4.18%	0.0221	✗	1.39
2025-12-28	oos	0.4782	0.477575	-0.13%	0.476	-0.46%	0.0088	✗	1.39
2025-12-27	oos	0.4315	0.43163	+0.03%	0.4782	+10.82%	0.1014	✓	1.35
2025-12-26	oos	0.4283	0.428467	+0.04%	0.4315	+0.75%	0.0008	✗	1.35
2025-12-25	oos	0.4313	0.431456	+0.04%	0.4283	-0.70%	0.0093	✗	1.35
2025-12-24	oos	0.4427	0.442776	+0.02%	0.4313	-2.58%	0.0195	✗	1.35
2025-12-23	oos	0.4458	0.445888	+0.02%	0.4427	-0.70%	0.0099	✗	1.35
2025-12-22	oos	0.4655	0.465383	-0.03%	0.4458	-4.23%	0.0257	✓	1.35
2025-12-21	oos	0.476	0.475724	-0.06%	0.4655	-2.21%	0.0205	✓	1.35
2025-12-20	oos	0.496	0.495424	-0.12%	0.476	-4.03%	0.0449	✓	1.37
2025-12-19	oos	0.4871	0.486469	-0.13%	0.496	+1.83%	0.0158	✗	1.37
2025-12-18	oos	0.4528	0.452848	+0.01%	0.4871	+7.58%	0.0322	✓	1.34
2025-12-17	oos	0.4629	0.462568	-0.07%	0.4528	-2.18%	0.0096	✓	1.34
2025-12-16	oos	0.4552	0.454924	-0.06%	0.4629	+1.69%	0.0431	✗	1.36
2025-12-15	oos	0.4505	0.45114	+0.14%	0.4552	+1.04%	0.0136	✗	1.37
2025-12-14	oos	0.4757	0.475582	-0.02%	0.4505	-5.30%	0.0271	✓	1.35
2025-12-13	oos	0.4768	0.476779	-0.00%	0.4757	-0.23%	0.0294	✗	1.36
2025-12-12	oos	0.4816	0.481677	+0.02%	0.4768	-1.00%	0.0098	✗	1.36
2025-12-11	oos	0.4952	0.495007	-0.04%	0.4816	-2.75%	0.0063	✗	1.36
2025-12-10	oos	0.5148	0.514064	-0.14%	0.4952	-3.81%	0.0449	✓	1.37
2025-12-09	oos	0.5209	0.519981	-0.18%	0.5148	-1.17%	0.0003	✓	1.37
2025-12-08	oos	0.5243	0.523219	-0.21%	0.5209	-0.65%	0.0351	✓	1.38
2025-12-07	oos	0.5344	0.533035	-0.26%	0.5243	-1.89%	0.0204	✓	1.38
2025-12-06	oos	0.5254	0.52418	-0.23%	0.5344	+1.71%	0.0019	✓	1.38
2025-12-05	oos	0.5042	0.503391	-0.16%	0.5254	+4.20%	0.0440	✗	1.38
2025-12-04	oos	0.51	0.509082	-0.18%	0.5042	-1.14%	0.0329	✗	1.41
2025-12-03	oos	0.5193	0.518295	-0.19%	0.51	-1.79%	0.0045	✗	1.41
2025-12-02	oos	0.5385	0.537249	-0.23%	0.5193	-3.57%	0.0676	✓	1.45
2025-12-01	oos	0.5006	0.499959	-0.13%	0.5385	+7.57%	0.0081	✓	1.46
2025-11-30	oos	0.5414	0.540189	-0.22%	0.5006	-7.54%	0.0091	✓	1.45
2025-11-29	oos	0.5481	0.546738	-0.25%	0.5414	-1.22%	0.0025	✓	1.44
2025-11-28	oos	0.5844	0.582362	-0.35%	0.5481	-6.21%	0.0594	✓	1.44
2025-11-27	oos	0.6029	0.600298	-0.43%	0.5844	-3.07%	0.0203	✓	1.44
2025-11-26	oos	0.6179	0.614622	-0.53%	0.6029	-2.43%	0.0326	✓	1.43
2025-11-25	oos	0.6249	0.620667	-0.68%	0.6179	-1.12%	0.0569	✓	1.48
2025-11-24	oos	0.6041	0.59971	-0.73%	0.6249	+3.44%	0.0572	✗	1.49
2025-11-23	oos	0.62	0.612006	-1.29%	0.6041	-2.56%	0.0383	✓	1.52
2025-11-22	oos	0.5308	0.524193	-1.24%	0.62	+16.80%	0.1319	✗	1.45
2025-11-21	oos	0.4518	0.44873	-0.68%	0.5308	+17.49%	0.1745	✗	1.44
2025-11-20	oos	0.4514	0.447937	-0.77%	0.4518	+0.09%	0.0336	✗	1.46
2025-11-19	oos	0.4723	0.4712	-0.23%	0.4514	-4.43%	0.0422	✗	1.54
2025-11-18	oos	0.5104	0.50906	-0.26%	0.4723	-7.46%	0.0509	✓	1.53
2025-11-17	oos	0.501	0.499697	-0.26%	0.5104	+1.88%	0.0078	✗	1.52
2025-11-16	oos	0.514	0.512917	-0.21%	0.501	-2.53%	0.0112	✗	1.55
2025-11-15	oos	0.5203	0.519233	-0.20%	0.514	-1.21%	0.0122	✗	1.55
2025-11-14	oos	0.5215	0.520419	-0.21%	0.5203	-0.23%	0.0173	✓	1.56
2025-11-13	oos	0.5679	0.56697	-0.16%	0.5215	-8.17%	0.0014	✓	1.56
2025-11-12	oos	0.597	0.596292	-0.12%	0.5679	-4.87%	0.0175	✓	1.55
2025-11-11	oos	0.6214	0.620719	-0.11%	0.597	-3.93%	0.0182	✓	1.55
2025-11-10	oos	0.6228	0.622425	-0.06%	0.6214	-0.22%	0.0434	✗	1.58
2025-11-09	oos	0.6417	0.640965	-0.11%	0.6228	-2.95%	0.0483	✓	1.60
2025-11-08	oos	0.6406	0.639545	-0.16%	0.6417	+0.17%	0.0346	✓	1.63
2025-11-07	oos	0.6439	0.642989	-0.14%	0.6406	-0.51%	0.0121	✗	1.63
2025-11-06	oos	0.6153	0.616094	+0.13%	0.6439	+4.65%	0.0125	✓	1.62
2025-11-05	oos	0.6439	0.644143	+0.04%	0.6153	-4.44%	0.0052	✗	1.61
2025-11-04	oos	0.5716	0.574903	+0.58%	0.6439	+12.65%	0.0775	✓	1.53
2025-11-03	oos	0.5617	0.562897	+0.21%	0.5716	+1.76%	0.0983	✓	1.70
2025-11-02	oos	0.6098	0.608583	-0.20%	0.5617	-7.89%	0.0183	✓	1.69
2025-11-01	oos	0.6287	0.627283	-0.23%	0.6098	-3.01%	0.0357	✓	1.70
2025-10-31	oos	0.6247	0.623476	-0.20%	0.6287	+0.64%	0.0006	✓	1.70
2025-10-30	oos	0.6303	0.62913	-0.19%	0.6247	-0.89%	0.0267	✓	1.71
2025-10-29	oos	0.609	0.608036	-0.16%	0.6303	+3.50%	0.0637	✗	1.75
2025-10-28	oos	0.603	0.602128	-0.14%	0.609	+1.00%	0.0570	✗	1.77
2025-10-27	oos	0.69	0.688109	-0.27%	0.603	-12.61%	0.1140	✓	1.73
2025-10-26	oos	0.7419	0.73896	-0.40%	0.69	-7.00%	0.0616	✓	1.72
2025-10-25	oos	0.6788	0.676975	-0.27%	0.7419	+9.30%	0.0487	✗	1.68
2025-10-24	oos	0.6829	0.68098	-0.28%	0.6788	-0.60%	0.0126	✓	1.67
2025-10-23	oos	0.6635	0.662131	-0.21%	0.6829	+2.92%	0.0169	✗	1.66
2025-10-22	oos	0.6152	0.614733	-0.08%	0.6635	+7.85%	0.0387	✗	1.62
2025-10-21	oos	0.6325	0.632138	-0.06%	0.6152	-2.74%	0.0155	✓	1.62
2025-10-20	oos	0.6661	0.66553	-0.09%	0.6325	-5.04%	0.0179	✓	1.64
2025-10-19	oos	0.6731	0.67238	-0.11%	0.6661	-1.04%	0.0376	✓	1.64
2025-10-18	oos	0.6227	0.62285	+0.02%	0.6731	+8.09%	0.0558	✓	1.60
2025-10-17	oos	0.6126	0.613084	+0.08%	0.6227	+1.65%	0.0044	✓	1.59
2025-10-16	oos	0.6252	0.625774	+0.09%	0.6126	-2.02%	0.0046	✓	1.60
2025-10-15	oos	0.6547	0.654918	+0.03%	0.6252	-4.51%	0.0090	✗	1.57
2025-10-14	oos	0.6761	0.675921	-0.03%	0.6547	-3.17%	0.0002	✓	1.58
2025-10-13	oos	0.6991	0.698238	-0.12%	0.6761	-3.29%	0.0012	✓	1.61
2025-10-12	oos	0.7064	0.706121	-0.04%	0.6991	-1.03%	0.0129	✓	1.62
2025-10-11	oos	0.6166	0.619911	+0.54%	0.7064	+14.56%	0.0729	✓	1.52
2025-10-10	oos	0.5866	0.589682	+0.53%	0.6166	+5.11%	0.0766	✓	1.61
2025-10-09	oos	0.6817	0.681752	+0.01%	0.5866	-13.95%	0.0380	✗	1.51
2025-10-08	oos	0.7125	0.712282	-0.03%	0.6817	-4.32%	0.0243	✓	1.48
2025-10-07	oos	0.7047	0.704266	-0.06%	0.7125	+1.11%	0.0115	✓	1.45
2025-10-06	oos	0.736	0.735665	-0.05%	0.7047	-4.25%	0.0039	✓	1.45
2025-10-05	oos	0.7141	0.713275	-0.12%	0.736	+3.07%	0.0175	✗	1.44
2025-10-04	oos	0.7215	0.7197	-0.25%	0.7141	-1.03%	0.0201	✓	1.43
2025-10-03	oos	0.7328	0.72998	-0.38%	0.7215	-1.54%	0.0133	✓	1.44
2025-10-02	oos	0.7458	0.741096	-0.63%	0.7328	-1.74%	0.0317	✓	1.46
2025-10-01	oos	0.728	0.722233	-0.79%	0.7458	+2.45%	0.0081	✗	1.46
2025-09-30	oos	0.6868	0.684422	-0.35%	0.728	+6.00%	0.0046	✗	1.45
2025-09-29	oos	0.693	0.689798	-0.46%	0.6868	-0.89%	0.0004	✓	1.54
2025-09-28	oos	0.7095	0.70705	-0.35%	0.693	-2.33%	0.0515	✓	1.64
2025-09-27	oos	0.6949	0.694142	-0.11%	0.7095	+2.10%	0.0157	✓	1.66
2025-09-26	oos	0.6826	0.68213	-0.07%	0.6949	+1.80%	0.0188	✗	1.65
2025-09-25	oos	0.6951	0.694842	-0.04%	0.6826	-1.80%	0.0279	✓	1.68
2025-09-24	oos	0.7374	0.735993	-0.19%	0.6951	-5.74%	0.0087	✗	1.70
2025-09-23	oos	0.7157	0.715357	-0.05%	0.7374	+3.03%	0.0102	✗	1.70
2025-09-22	oos	0.7471	0.746737	-0.05%	0.7157	-4.20%	0.0311	✓	1.77
2025-09-21	oos	0.7844	0.783656	-0.09%	0.7471	-4.76%	0.0076	✓	1.80
2025-09-20	oos	0.8044	0.80365	-0.09%	0.7844	-2.49%	0.0173	✓	1.71
2025-09-19	oos	0.8018	0.801419	-0.05%	0.8044	+0.32%	0.0028	✗	1.74
2025-09-18	oos	0.813	0.812337	-0.08%	0.8018	-1.38%	0.0082	✗	1.73
2025-09-17	oos	0.778	0.77806	+0.01%	0.813	+4.50%	0.0346	✓	1.73

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.