BASED

Based · Ethereum · lstm_s8

token id: #838
symbol: BASED
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0x4f2b33840227ddd0e28da8d4185d6fa07adfed87
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-03-30
predictions: 594

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +1d

assessed

197

of 198 predictions shown

direction hit

53.3%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0603

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0042

actual -0.0009

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	0.054285	0.054222	-0.12%	–	pending	–	–	0.90
2026-10-21	oos	0.054325	0.054252	-0.13%	0.054285	-0.07%	0.0013	✓	0.83
2026-10-20	oos	0.050125	0.050061	-0.13%	0.054325	+8.38%	0.0706	✗	0.86
2026-10-19	oos	0.047365	0.0473	-0.14%	0.050125	+5.83%	0.0468	✗	0.84
2026-10-18	oos	0.048835	0.048758	-0.16%	0.047365	-3.01%	0.0273	✓	0.83
2026-10-17	oos	0.05305	0.052943	-0.20%	0.048835	-7.95%	0.0871	✓	0.83
2026-10-16	oos	0.056	0.055895	-0.19%	0.05305	-5.27%	0.0510	✓	0.83
2026-10-15	oos	0.0446	0.044584	-0.04%	0.056	+25.56%	0.2348	✗	0.90
2026-10-14	oos	0.043815	0.043813	-0.01%	0.0446	+1.79%	0.0117	✗	0.90
2026-10-13	oos	0.047865	0.047862	-0.01%	0.043815	-8.46%	0.0727	✓	0.84
2026-10-12	oos	0.05471	0.054697	-0.02%	0.047865	-12.51%	0.1480	✓	0.89
2026-10-11	oos	0.066235	0.066139	-0.14%	0.05471	-17.40%	0.1746	✓	0.64
2026-10-10	oos	0.068045	0.06791	-0.20%	0.066235	-2.66%	0.0313	✓	0.69
2026-10-09	oos	0.068525	0.068385	-0.20%	0.068045	-0.70%	0.0080	✓	0.68
2026-10-08	oos	0.065965	0.065872	-0.14%	0.068525	+3.88%	0.0324	✗	0.69
2026-10-07	oos	0.06749	0.067392	-0.14%	0.065965	-2.26%	0.0087	✓	0.66
2026-10-06	oos	0.06713	0.067046	-0.13%	0.06749	+0.54%	0.0271	✗	0.77
2026-10-05	oos	0.06217	0.062129	-0.07%	0.06713	+7.98%	0.0793	✗	0.75
2026-10-04	oos	0.062415	0.062362	-0.08%	0.06217	-0.39%	0.0039	✗	0.79
2026-10-03	oos	0.06187	0.061811	-0.10%	0.062415	+0.88%	0.0067	✓	0.80
2026-10-02	oos	0.06284	0.062762	-0.12%	0.06187	-1.54%	0.0165	✓	0.80
2026-10-01	oos	0.065225	0.065113	-0.17%	0.06284	-3.66%	0.0323	✓	0.79
2026-09-30	oos	0.06616	0.066019	-0.21%	0.065225	-1.41%	0.0239	✓	0.77
2026-09-29	oos	0.0669	0.066747	-0.23%	0.06616	-1.11%	0.0082	✓	0.61
2026-09-28	oos	0.06719	0.067035	-0.23%	0.0669	-0.43%	0.0037	✓	0.75
2026-09-27	oos	0.07096	0.07075	-0.30%	0.06719	-5.31%	0.0452	✓	0.54
2026-09-26	oos	0.071135	0.070908	-0.32%	0.07096	-0.25%	0.0004	✓	0.54
2026-09-25	oos	0.069215	0.069024	-0.28%	0.071135	+2.77%	0.0281	✗	0.51
2026-09-24	oos	0.06689	0.066723	-0.25%	0.069215	+3.48%	0.0384	✗	0.51
2026-09-23	oos	0.06365	0.063516	-0.21%	0.06689	+5.09%	0.0517	✗	0.51
2026-09-22	oos	0.068925	0.068759	-0.24%	0.06365	-7.65%	0.0652	✓	0.56
2026-09-21	oos	0.06818	0.06804	-0.21%	0.068925	+1.09%	0.0161	✗	0.69
2026-09-20	oos	0.066145	0.065962	-0.28%	0.06818	+3.08%	0.0094	✓	0.66
2026-09-19	oos	0.06551	0.065333	-0.27%	0.066145	+0.97%	0.0130	✗	0.66
2026-09-18	oos	0.06518	0.064999	-0.28%	0.06551	+0.51%	0.0051	✗	0.62
2026-09-17	oos	0.06246	0.062288	-0.27%	0.06518	+4.35%	0.0126	✗	0.57
2026-09-16	oos	0.06142	0.061262	-0.26%	0.06246	+1.69%	0.0178	✗	0.57
2026-09-15	oos	0.0632	0.063004	-0.31%	0.06142	-2.82%	0.0284	✓	0.40
2026-09-14	oos	0.062645	0.062469	-0.28%	0.0632	+0.89%	0.0255	✗	0.41
2026-09-13	oos	0.06183	0.061661	-0.27%	0.062645	+1.32%	0.0085	✗	0.41
2026-09-12	oos	0.06403	0.063838	-0.30%	0.06183	-3.44%	0.0294	✓	0.43
2026-09-11	oos	0.064245	0.064066	-0.28%	0.06403	-0.33%	0.0009	✓	0.44
2026-09-10	oos	0.06059	0.060478	-0.18%	0.064245	+6.03%	0.0569	✗	0.40
2026-09-09	oos	0.06193	0.061818	-0.18%	0.06059	-2.16%	0.0112	✓	0.39
2026-09-08	oos	0.06767	0.067489	-0.27%	0.06193	-8.48%	0.0849	✓	0.51
2026-09-07	oos	0.06744	0.067276	-0.24%	0.06767	+0.34%	0.0101	✗	0.52
2026-09-06	oos	0.067405	0.06725	-0.23%	0.06744	+0.05%	0.0109	✗	0.52
2026-09-05	oos	0.068755	0.068582	-0.25%	0.067405	-1.96%	0.0207	✓	0.53
2026-09-04	oos	0.068655	0.068496	-0.23%	0.068755	+0.15%	0.0026	✗	0.57
2026-09-03	oos	0.06963	0.069512	-0.17%	0.068655	-1.40%	0.0014	✓	0.56
2026-09-02	oos	0.06727	0.067073	-0.29%	0.06963	+3.51%	0.0109	✗	0.53
2026-09-01	oos	0.067465	0.067256	-0.31%	0.06727	-0.29%	0.0009	✓	0.55
2026-08-31	oos	0.068375	0.068185	-0.28%	0.067465	-1.33%	0.0042	✓	0.43
2026-08-30	oos	0.06784	0.067622	-0.32%	0.068375	+0.79%	0.0049	✗	0.54
2026-08-29	oos	0.0706	0.070382	-0.31%	0.06784	-3.91%	0.0330	✓	0.52
2026-08-28	oos	0.07148	0.071243	-0.33%	0.0706	-1.23%	0.0117	✓	0.52
2026-08-27	oos	0.07326	0.073202	-0.08%	0.07148	-2.43%	0.0078	✓	0.52
2026-08-26	oos	0.072215	0.07207	-0.20%	0.07326	+1.45%	0.0085	✗	0.50
2026-08-25	oos	0.06901	0.068778	-0.34%	0.072215	+4.64%	0.0456	✗	0.50
2026-08-24	oos	0.072275	0.072144	-0.18%	0.06901	-4.52%	0.0416	✓	0.49
2026-08-23	oos	0.07345	0.07326	-0.26%	0.072275	-1.60%	0.0222	✓	0.54
2026-08-22	oos	0.07444	0.074235	-0.28%	0.07345	-1.33%	0.0154	✓	0.54
2026-08-21	oos	0.09093	0.090748	-0.20%	0.07444	-18.13%	0.1906	✓	0.46
2026-08-20	oos	0.084175	0.083796	-0.45%	0.09093	+8.02%	0.0552	✗	0.38
2026-08-19	oos	0.080745	0.080223	-0.65%	0.084175	+4.25%	0.0236	✗	0.47
2026-08-18	oos	0.078975	0.078393	-0.74%	0.080745	+2.24%	0.0052	✓	0.50
2026-08-17	oos	0.07742	0.076853	-0.73%	0.078975	+2.01%	0.0256	✗	0.53
2026-08-16	oos	0.077985	0.077391	-0.76%	0.07742	-0.72%	0.0139	✓	0.55
2026-08-15	oos	0.07977	0.079142	-0.79%	0.077985	-2.24%	0.0131	✓	0.55
2026-08-14	oos	0.07509	0.074556	-0.71%	0.07977	+6.23%	0.0672	✗	0.56
2026-08-13	oos	0.075375	0.074829	-0.72%	0.07509	-0.38%	0.0074	✗	0.56
2026-08-12	oos	0.07654	0.075964	-0.75%	0.075375	-1.52%	0.0079	✓	0.66
2026-08-11	oos	0.07666	0.076106	-0.72%	0.07654	-0.16%	0.0069	✓	0.63
2026-08-10	oos	0.07734	0.07679	-0.71%	0.07666	-0.88%	0.0026	✓	0.72
2026-08-09	oos	0.074055	0.073691	-0.49%	0.07734	+4.44%	0.0587	✗	0.71
2026-08-08	oos	0.077215	0.076829	-0.50%	0.074055	-4.09%	0.0361	✓	0.71
2026-08-07	oos	0.07789	0.077539	-0.45%	0.077215	-0.87%	0.0044	✓	0.72
2026-08-06	oos	0.08424	0.083733	-0.60%	0.07789	-7.54%	0.0798	✓	0.77
2026-08-05	oos	0.08051	0.08014	-0.46%	0.08424	+4.63%	0.0539	✗	0.77
2026-08-04	oos	0.07671	0.076406	-0.40%	0.08051	+4.95%	0.0461	✗	0.72
2026-08-03	oos	0.07648	0.076191	-0.38%	0.07671	+0.30%	0.0002	✓	0.72
2026-08-02	oos	0.07587	0.075592	-0.37%	0.07648	+0.80%	0.0120	✗	0.69
2026-08-01	oos	0.075195	0.074936	-0.34%	0.07587	+0.90%	0.0048	✗	0.65
2026-07-31	oos	0.07904	0.078735	-0.39%	0.075195	-4.86%	0.0454	✓	0.65
2026-07-30	oos	0.079515	0.079213	-0.38%	0.07904	-0.60%	0.0180	✗	0.68
2026-07-29	oos	0.080195	0.079899	-0.37%	0.079515	-0.85%	0.0132	✓	0.66
2026-07-28	oos	0.07921	0.078962	-0.31%	0.080195	+1.24%	0.0150	✗	0.61
2026-07-27	oos	0.079315	0.079082	-0.29%	0.07921	-0.13%	0.0001	✓	0.62
2026-07-26	oos	0.08704	0.08671	-0.38%	0.079315	-8.88%	0.0751	✓	0.55
2026-07-25	oos	0.08458	0.084323	-0.30%	0.08704	+2.91%	0.0234	✗	0.52
2026-07-24	oos	0.084415	0.084189	-0.27%	0.08458	+0.20%	0.0029	✗	0.51
2026-07-23	oos	0.07593	0.075823	-0.14%	0.084415	+11.17%	0.1160	✗	0.58
2026-07-22	oos	0.08425	0.084026	-0.27%	0.07593	-9.88%	0.0924	✓	0.56
2026-07-21	oos	0.08541	0.085152	-0.30%	0.08425	-1.36%	0.0069	✓	0.58
2026-07-20	oos	0.085835	0.085564	-0.32%	0.08541	-0.50%	0.0110	✓	0.47
2026-07-19	oos	0.09025	0.089884	-0.41%	0.085835	-4.89%	0.0503	✓	0.52
2026-07-18	oos	0.09212	0.091694	-0.46%	0.09025	-2.03%	0.0145	✓	0.77
2026-07-17	oos	0.09172	0.091317	-0.44%	0.09212	+0.44%	0.0025	✓	0.81
2026-07-16	oos	0.091335	0.090942	-0.43%	0.09172	+0.42%	0.0067	✗	0.95
2026-07-15	oos	0.08947	0.08909	-0.42%	0.091335	+2.08%	0.0351	✗	0.69
2026-07-14	oos	0.08738	0.087015	-0.42%	0.08947	+2.39%	0.0313	✗	0.82
2026-07-13	oos	0.094725	0.094204	-0.55%	0.08738	-7.75%	0.1197	✓	1.04
2026-07-12	oos	0.102185	0.101455	-0.71%	0.094725	-7.30%	0.0455	✓	0.99
2026-07-11	oos	0.098305	0.097649	-0.67%	0.102185	+3.95%	0.0460	✗	1.06
2026-07-10	oos	0.10396	0.1032	-0.73%	0.098305	-5.44%	0.0433	✓	0.94
2026-07-09	oos	0.11142	0.110545	-0.79%	0.10396	-6.70%	0.0763	✓	0.99
2026-07-08	oos	0.087055	0.08674	-0.36%	0.11142	+27.99%	0.2374	✗	0.87
2026-07-07	oos	0.08504	0.084703	-0.40%	0.087055	+2.37%	0.0417	✗	0.83
2026-07-06	oos	0.09485	0.094207	-0.68%	0.08504	-10.34%	0.0939	✓	0.80
2026-07-05	oos	0.09236	0.09172	-0.69%	0.09485	+2.70%	0.0277	✗	0.89
2026-07-04	oos	0.09202	0.09137	-0.71%	0.09236	+0.37%	0.0037	✓	0.90
2026-07-03	oos	0.09496	0.094248	-0.75%	0.09202	-3.10%	0.0319	✓	0.89
2026-07-02	oos	0.101225	0.100363	-0.85%	0.09496	-6.19%	0.0707	✓	0.92
2026-07-01	oos	0.13053	0.129174	-1.04%	0.101225	-22.45%	0.2720	✓	1.12
2026-06-30	oos	0.1002	0.099374	-0.82%	0.13053	+30.27%	0.2505	✗	0.91
2026-06-29	oos	0.081245	0.080741	-0.62%	0.1002	+23.33%	0.2463	✗	1.10
2026-06-28	oos	0.08065	0.080148	-0.62%	0.081245	+0.74%	0.0036	✓	0.87
2026-06-27	oos	0.074875	0.074497	-0.51%	0.08065	+7.71%	0.0862	✗	0.89
2026-06-26	oos	0.06701	0.066851	-0.24%	0.074875	+11.74%	0.1144	✗	0.89
2026-06-25	oos	0.07109	0.070904	-0.26%	0.06701	-5.74%	0.0610	✓	0.90
2026-06-24	oos	0.08342	0.082911	-0.61%	0.07109	-14.78%	0.1366	✓	0.81
2026-06-23	oos	0.09949	0.098702	-0.79%	0.08342	-16.15%	0.1496	✓	0.69
2026-06-22	oos	0.094245	0.093585	-0.70%	0.09949	+5.57%	0.0764	✗	0.74
2026-06-21	oos	0.09377	0.093131	-0.68%	0.094245	+0.51%	0.0036	✓	0.74
2026-06-20	oos	0.08845	0.087919	-0.60%	0.09377	+6.01%	0.0764	✗	0.77
2026-06-19	oos	0.097835	0.097054	-0.80%	0.08845	-9.59%	0.1024	✓	0.81
2026-06-18	oos	0.09533	0.094616	-0.75%	0.097835	+2.63%	0.0258	✗	0.81
2026-06-17	oos	0.077795	0.077475	-0.41%	0.09533	+22.54%	0.2316	✗	0.98
2026-06-16	oos	0.076135	0.075813	-0.42%	0.077795	+2.18%	0.0440	✗	1.01
2026-06-15	oos	0.078575	0.078169	-0.52%	0.076135	-3.11%	0.0163	✓	1.01
2026-06-14	oos	0.07155	0.071325	-0.32%	0.078575	+9.82%	0.0884	✗	0.98
2026-06-13	oos	0.0691	0.068964	-0.20%	0.07155	+3.55%	0.0179	✗	0.96
2026-06-12	oos	0.07492	0.074691	-0.31%	0.0691	-7.77%	0.0918	✓	1.01
2026-06-11	oos	0.07312	0.07292	-0.27%	0.07492	+2.46%	0.0275	✗	1.01
2026-06-10	oos	0.06286	0.062852	-0.01%	0.07312	+16.32%	0.1224	✗	0.85
2026-06-09	oos	0.06465	0.06459	-0.09%	0.06286	-2.77%	0.0238	✓	0.85
2026-06-08	oos	0.06474	0.064524	-0.33%	0.06465	-0.14%	0.0212	✗	0.87
2026-06-07	oos	0.07013	0.069742	-0.55%	0.06474	-7.69%	0.0711	✓	0.86
2026-06-06	oos	0.0664	0.06612	-0.42%	0.07013	+5.62%	0.0264	✗	0.82
2026-06-05	oos	0.06214	0.061944	-0.31%	0.0664	+6.86%	0.0719	✗	0.83
2026-06-04	oos	0.06303	0.062812	-0.35%	0.06214	-1.41%	0.0285	✗	0.88
2026-06-03	oos	0.07015	0.069815	-0.48%	0.06303	-10.15%	0.0991	✓	0.87
2026-06-02	oos	0.06498	0.064754	-0.35%	0.07015	+7.96%	0.1233	✗	1.08
2026-06-01	oos	0.07125	0.070921	-0.46%	0.06498	-8.80%	0.0170	✓	1.04
2026-05-31	oos	0.07135	0.07104	-0.43%	0.07125	-0.14%	0.0380	✗	1.12
2026-05-30	oos	0.076975	0.076538	-0.57%	0.07135	-7.31%	0.0673	✓	1.11
2026-05-29	oos	0.07635	0.075952	-0.52%	0.076975	+0.82%	0.0073	✗	1.10
2026-05-28	oos	0.06089	0.060775	-0.19%	0.07635	+25.39%	0.2304	✗	1.15
2026-05-27	oos	0.062215	0.062093	-0.20%	0.06089	-2.13%	0.0070	✓	1.16
2026-05-26	oos	0.062175	0.062063	-0.18%	0.062215	+0.06%	0.0268	✗	1.21
2026-05-25	oos	0.068755	0.068575	-0.26%	0.062175	-9.57%	0.0771	✓	1.12
2026-05-24	oos	0.0685	0.068333	-0.24%	0.068755	+0.37%	0.0022	✓	1.12
2026-05-23	oos	0.07205	0.071843	-0.29%	0.0685	-4.93%	0.0524	✓	1.13
2026-05-22	oos	0.0711	0.070908	-0.27%	0.07205	+1.34%	0.0018	✓	1.12
2026-05-21	oos	0.084	0.083536	-0.55%	0.0711	-15.36%	0.1373	✓	0.87
2026-05-20	oos	0.07665	0.076356	-0.38%	0.084	+9.59%	0.0946	✗	0.88
2026-05-19	oos	0.07077	0.070563	-0.29%	0.07665	+8.31%	0.0750	✗	0.85
2026-05-18	oos	0.07149	0.071276	-0.30%	0.07077	-1.01%	0.0052	✓	0.85
2026-05-17	oos	0.07044	0.07024	-0.28%	0.07149	+1.49%	0.0229	✗	0.87
2026-05-16	oos	0.07579	0.075528	-0.35%	0.07044	-7.06%	0.0623	✓	0.82
2026-05-15	oos	0.07491	0.074692	-0.29%	0.07579	+1.17%	0.0251	✗	0.86
2026-05-14	oos	0.08692	0.086568	-0.40%	0.07491	-13.82%	0.1292	✓	0.61
2026-05-13	oos	0.08883	0.088429	-0.45%	0.08692	-2.15%	0.0317	✓	0.65
2026-05-12	oos	0.11052	0.109655	-0.78%	0.08883	-19.63%	0.2054	✓	0.35
2026-05-11	oos	0.10473	0.104038	-0.66%	0.11052	+5.53%	0.0673	✗	0.45
2026-05-10	oos	0.09826	0.097802	-0.47%	0.10473	+6.58%	0.0714	✗	0.51
2026-05-09	oos	0.09627	0.095862	-0.42%	0.09826	+2.07%	0.0154	✗	0.49
2026-05-08	oos	0.09008	0.089785	-0.33%	0.09627	+6.87%	0.0669	✗	0.49
2026-05-07	oos	0.091955	0.091625	-0.36%	0.09008	-2.04%	0.0181	✓	0.48
2026-05-06	oos	0.088045	0.087838	-0.23%	0.091955	+4.44%	0.0566	✗	0.61
2026-05-05	oos	0.09052	0.090277	-0.27%	0.088045	-2.73%	0.0290	✓	0.61
2026-05-04	oos	0.09472	0.094366	-0.37%	0.09052	-4.43%	0.0500	✓	0.64
2026-05-03	oos	0.09896	0.098446	-0.52%	0.09472	-4.28%	0.0497	✓	0.68
2026-05-02	oos	0.11639	0.115568	-0.71%	0.09896	-14.98%	0.1542	✓	0.59
2026-05-01	oos	0.11018	0.109438	-0.67%	0.11639	+5.64%	0.0582	✗	0.59
2026-04-30	oos	0.11237	0.11158	-0.70%	0.11018	-1.95%	0.0287	✓	0.64
2026-04-29	oos	0.12989	0.128909	-0.76%	0.11237	-13.49%	0.1423	✓	0.69
2026-04-28	oos	0.13847	0.137381	-0.79%	0.12989	-6.20%	0.0486	✓	1.00
2026-04-27	oos	0.136965	0.135835	-0.82%	0.13847	+1.10%	0.0328	✗	1.00
2026-04-26	oos	0.13381	0.132768	-0.78%	0.136965	+2.36%	0.0479	✗	1.00
2026-04-25	oos	0.134675	0.133599	-0.80%	0.13381	-0.64%	0.0115	✓	1.00
2026-04-24	oos	0.122685	0.121734	-0.78%	0.134675	+9.77%	0.0986	✗	1.00
2026-04-23	oos	0.13582	0.134665	-0.85%	0.122685	-9.67%	0.0826	✓	1.00
2026-04-22	oos	0.11474	0.113866	-0.76%	0.13582	+18.37%	0.1754	✗	1.00
2026-04-21	oos	0.13065	0.12933	-1.01%	0.11474	-12.18%	0.1438	✓	1.00
2026-04-20	oos	0.11396	0.112871	-0.96%	0.13065	+14.65%	0.1399	✗	1.00
2026-04-19	oos	0.0862	0.085539	-0.77%	0.11396	+32.20%	0.2596	✗	1.00
2026-04-18	oos	0.09122	0.090478	-0.81%	0.0862	-5.50%	0.0228	✓	1.00
2026-04-17	oos	0.12325	0.121722	-1.24%	0.09122	-25.99%	0.2707	✓	1.00
2026-04-16	oos	0.16615	0.162915	-1.95%	0.12325	-25.82%	0.3044	✓	1.00
2026-04-15	oos	0.085535	0.084924	-0.71%	0.16615	+94.25%	0.6668	✗	1.00
2026-04-14	oos	0.075145	0.07474	-0.54%	0.085535	+13.83%	0.1261	✗	1.00
2026-04-13	oos	0.0657	0.065453	-0.38%	0.075145	+14.38%	0.1417	✗	1.00
2026-04-12	oos	0.059505	0.059298	-0.35%	0.0657	+10.41%	0.0517	✗	1.00
2026-04-11	oos	0.054685	0.05455	-0.25%	0.059505	+8.81%	0.1194	✗	1.00
2026-04-10	oos	0.053855	0.053731	-0.23%	0.054685	+1.54%	0.0164	✗	1.00
2026-04-09	oos	0.05359	0.053465	-0.23%	0.053855	+0.49%	0.0093	✓	1.00
2026-04-08	oos	0.06194	0.061764	-0.28%	0.05359	-13.48%	0.1519	✓	1.00