UMX

UMX · · lstm_s6

token id: #759
symbol: UMX
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-07
predictions: 204

Track record at +7d

assessed

61

of 68 predictions shown

direction hit

82.0%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0776

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0036

actual -0.0783

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	0.041845	0.042137	+0.70%	–	pending	–	–	0.20
2026-10-21	oos	0.03934	0.039796	+1.16%	–	pending	–	–	0.20
2026-10-20	oos	0.042915	0.04325	+0.78%	–	pending	–	–	0.22
2026-10-19	oos	0.05515	0.054581	-1.03%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-18	oos	0.055405	0.05521	-0.35%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-17	oos	0.05585	0.055634	-0.39%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-16	oos	0.059095	0.058766	-0.56%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-15	oos	0.059045	0.058789	-0.43%	0.041845	-29.13%	0.3475	✓	0.30
2026-10-14	oos	0.05934	0.059046	-0.49%	0.03934	-33.70%	0.4148	✓	0.29
2026-10-13	oos	0.05942	0.059218	-0.34%	0.042915	-27.78%	0.3214	✓	0.32
2026-10-12	oos	0.06042	0.060076	-0.57%	0.05515	-8.72%	0.0859	✓	0.31
2026-10-11	oos	0.060205	0.059994	-0.35%	0.055405	-7.97%	0.0725	✓	0.35
2026-10-10	oos	0.06067	0.060341	-0.54%	0.05585	-7.94%	0.0709	✓	0.35
2026-10-09	oos	0.060945	0.060577	-0.60%	0.059095	-3.04%	0.0203	✓	0.35
2026-10-08	oos	0.06053	0.060171	-0.59%	0.059045	-2.45%	0.0207	✓	0.34
2026-10-07	oos	0.061825	0.061549	-0.45%	0.05934	-4.02%	0.0292	✓	0.35
2026-10-06	oos	0.061715	0.061717	+0.00%	0.05942	-3.72%	0.0263	✗	0.40
2026-10-05	oos	0.06169	0.061588	-0.17%	0.06042	-2.06%	0.0006	✓	0.41
2026-10-04	oos	0.06171	0.061648	-0.10%	0.060205	-2.44%	0.0094	✓	0.43
2026-10-03	oos	0.061395	0.060991	-0.66%	0.06067	-1.18%	0.0037	✓	0.41
2026-10-02	oos	0.0617	0.06125	-0.73%	0.060945	-1.22%	0.0047	✓	0.41
2026-10-01	oos	0.06148	0.061262	-0.36%	0.06053	-1.55%	0.0042	✗	0.43
2026-09-30	oos	0.06139	0.061011	-0.62%	0.061825	+0.71%	0.0147	✗	0.42
2026-09-29	oos	0.06121	0.061008	-0.33%	0.061715	+0.83%	0.0020	✓	0.42
2026-09-28	oos	0.060615	0.060446	-0.28%	0.06169	+1.77%	0.0087	✗	0.43
2026-09-27	oos	0.06074	0.060765	+0.04%	0.06171	+1.60%	0.0045	✓	0.46
2026-09-26	oos	0.06106	0.061077	+0.03%	0.061395	+0.55%	0.0034	✓	0.46
2026-09-25	oos	0.060915	0.060913	-0.00%	0.0617	+1.29%	0.0106	✗	0.46
2026-09-24	oos	0.06117	0.061229	+0.10%	0.06148	+0.51%	0.0015	✓	0.48
2026-09-23	oos	0.06117	0.061232	+0.10%	0.06139	+0.36%	0.0073	✓	0.48
2026-09-22	oos	0.060735	0.061136	+0.66%	0.06121	+0.78%	0.0177	✓	0.55
2026-09-21	oos	0.06117	0.061628	+0.75%	0.060615	-0.91%	0.0043	✓	0.56
2026-09-20	oos	0.061435	0.061	-0.71%	0.06074	-1.13%	0.0262	✓	0.55
2026-09-19	oos	0.06046	0.060068	-0.65%	0.06106	+0.99%	0.0054	✓	0.57
2026-09-18	oos	0.06137	0.060922	-0.73%	0.060915	-0.74%	0.0223	✓	0.57
2026-09-17	oos	0.06115	0.060419	-1.20%	0.06117	+0.03%	0.0391	✓	0.51
2026-09-16	oos	0.06201	0.06124	-1.24%	0.06117	-1.35%	0.0542	✓	0.52
2026-09-15	oos	0.06086	0.060261	-0.98%	0.060735	-0.21%	0.0586	✓	0.51
2026-09-14	oos	0.06052	0.060028	-0.81%	0.06117	+1.07%	0.0484	✓	0.66
2026-09-13	oos	0.060775	0.060335	-0.72%	0.061435	+1.09%	0.0167	✓	0.63
2026-09-12	oos	0.062595	0.062091	-0.80%	0.06046	-3.41%	0.0591	✓	0.65
2026-09-11	oos	0.065045	0.064445	-0.92%	0.06137	-5.65%	0.0791	✓	0.65
2026-09-10	oos	0.06506	0.06453	-0.81%	0.06115	-6.01%	0.0522	✓	0.64
2026-09-09	oos	0.06486	0.064569	-0.45%	0.06201	-4.39%	0.0193	✓	0.76
2026-09-08	oos	0.066495	0.066198	-0.45%	0.06086	-8.47%	0.0551	✓	0.78
2026-09-07	oos	0.068065	0.067845	-0.32%	0.06052	-11.08%	0.1047	✓	0.82
2026-09-06	oos	0.06993	0.069889	-0.06%	0.060775	-13.09%	0.0999	✓	0.88
2026-09-05	oos	0.071875	0.071747	-0.18%	0.062595	-12.91%	0.1037	✓	1.00
2026-09-04	oos	0.07207	0.071896	-0.24%	0.065045	-9.75%	0.0687	✓	1.00
2026-09-03	oos	0.07313	0.073521	+0.53%	0.06506	-11.04%	0.0623	✗	1.00
2026-09-02	oos	0.07424	0.073629	-0.82%	0.06486	-12.63%	0.1394	✓	1.00
2026-09-01	oos	0.07438	0.073877	-0.68%	0.066495	-10.60%	0.1187	✓	1.00
2026-08-31	oos	0.07495	0.074794	-0.21%	0.068065	-9.19%	0.1010	✓	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.07579	0.075416	-0.49%	0.06993	-7.73%	0.1094	✓	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.07513	0.074952	-0.24%	0.071875	-4.33%	0.0621	✓	1.00
2026-08-28	oos	0.07633	0.076063	-0.35%	0.07207	-5.58%	0.0772	✓	1.00
2026-08-27	oos	0.07696	0.077359	+0.52%	0.07313	-4.98%	0.0685	✗	1.00
2026-08-26	oos	0.08217	0.082232	+0.08%	0.07424	-9.65%	0.0803	✗	1.00
2026-08-25	oos	0.08355	0.08346	-0.11%	0.07438	-10.98%	0.1007	✓	1.00
2026-08-24	oos	0.08871	0.088725	+0.02%	0.07495	-15.51%	0.1634	✗	1.00
2026-08-23	oos	0.08672	0.086366	-0.41%	0.07579	-12.60%	0.1298	✓	1.00
2026-08-22	oos	0.08671	0.08617	-0.62%	0.07513	-13.35%	0.1523	✓	1.00
2026-08-21	oos	0.08346	0.083256	-0.24%	0.07633	-8.54%	0.0806	✓	1.00
2026-08-20	oos	0.08276	0.081845	-1.11%	0.07696	-7.01%	0.1564	✓	1.00
2026-08-19	oos	0.08486	0.084011	-1.00%	0.08217	-3.17%	0.1535	✓	1.00
2026-08-18	oos	0.08495	0.084899	-0.06%	0.08355	-1.65%	0.2100	✓	1.00
2026-08-17	oos	0.08465	0.084734	+0.10%	0.08871	+4.80%	0.1570	✗	1.00
2026-08-16	oos	0.08446	0.084865	+0.48%	0.08672	+2.68%	0.1911	✗	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.