UMX

UMX · · lstm_s6

token id: #759
symbol: UMX
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-07
predictions: 201

Track record at +1d

assessed

66

of 67 predictions shown

direction hit

62.1%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0228

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0024

actual -0.0127

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.0466	0.046574	-0.06%	–	pending	–	–	0.19
2026-10-20	oos	0.042915	0.042836	-0.18%	0.0466	+8.59%	0.0849	✗	0.22
2026-10-19	oos	0.05515	0.054777	-0.68%	0.042915	-22.18%	0.2479	✓	0.29
2026-10-18	oos	0.055405	0.055298	-0.19%	0.05515	-0.46%	0.0021	✓	0.29
2026-10-17	oos	0.05585	0.055754	-0.17%	0.055405	-0.80%	0.0085	✓	0.29
2026-10-16	oos	0.059095	0.058977	-0.20%	0.05585	-5.49%	0.0541	✓	0.29
2026-10-15	oos	0.059045	0.058935	-0.19%	0.059095	+0.08%	0.0050	✗	0.30
2026-10-14	oos	0.05934	0.059198	-0.24%	0.059045	-0.50%	0.0046	✓	0.29
2026-10-13	oos	0.05942	0.059272	-0.25%	0.05934	-0.13%	0.0071	✗	0.32
2026-10-12	oos	0.06042	0.06024	-0.30%	0.05942	-1.66%	0.0189	✓	0.31
2026-10-11	oos	0.060205	0.06002	-0.31%	0.06042	+0.36%	0.0149	✗	0.35
2026-10-10	oos	0.06067	0.060452	-0.36%	0.060205	-0.77%	0.0073	✓	0.35
2026-10-09	oos	0.060945	0.060721	-0.37%	0.06067	-0.45%	0.0024	✓	0.35
2026-10-08	oos	0.06053	0.060342	-0.31%	0.060945	+0.69%	0.0064	✗	0.34
2026-10-07	oos	0.061825	0.061667	-0.26%	0.06053	-2.09%	0.0118	✓	0.35
2026-10-06	oos	0.061715	0.061605	-0.18%	0.061825	+0.18%	0.0144	✗	0.40
2026-10-05	oos	0.06169	0.061511	-0.29%	0.061715	+0.04%	0.0043	✗	0.41
2026-10-04	oos	0.06171	0.061484	-0.37%	0.06169	-0.03%	0.0071	✗	0.43
2026-10-03	oos	0.061395	0.061073	-0.52%	0.06171	+0.51%	0.0019	✓	0.41
2026-10-02	oos	0.0617	0.061365	-0.54%	0.061395	-0.49%	0.0007	✓	0.41
2026-10-01	oos	0.06148	0.061266	-0.35%	0.0617	+0.36%	0.0088	✗	0.43
2026-09-30	oos	0.06139	0.061158	-0.38%	0.06148	+0.15%	0.0011	✓	0.42
2026-09-29	oos	0.06121	0.06109	-0.20%	0.06139	+0.29%	0.0053	✗	0.42
2026-09-28	oos	0.060615	0.060502	-0.19%	0.06121	+0.98%	0.0107	✗	0.43
2026-09-27	oos	0.06074	0.060667	-0.12%	0.060615	-0.21%	0.0046	✗	0.46
2026-09-26	oos	0.06106	0.060989	-0.12%	0.06074	-0.52%	0.0043	✓	0.46
2026-09-25	oos	0.060915	0.060838	-0.13%	0.06106	+0.24%	0.0019	✗	0.46
2026-09-24	oos	0.06117	0.0611	-0.11%	0.060915	-0.42%	0.0014	✓	0.48
2026-09-23	oos	0.06117	0.061101	-0.11%	0.06117	+0.00%	0.0011	✓	0.48
2026-09-22	oos	0.060735	0.060715	-0.03%	0.06117	+0.72%	0.0191	✗	0.55
2026-09-21	oos	0.06117	0.061147	-0.04%	0.060735	-0.71%	0.0042	✓	0.56
2026-09-20	oos	0.061435	0.061262	-0.28%	0.06117	-0.43%	0.0371	✓	0.55
2026-09-19	oos	0.06046	0.060296	-0.27%	0.061435	+1.61%	0.0192	✗	0.57
2026-09-18	oos	0.06137	0.061192	-0.29%	0.06046	-1.48%	0.0146	✓	0.57
2026-09-17	oos	0.06115	0.060914	-0.39%	0.06137	+0.36%	0.0222	✓	0.51
2026-09-16	oos	0.06201	0.061758	-0.41%	0.06115	-1.39%	0.0113	✓	0.52
2026-09-15	oos	0.06086	0.06066	-0.33%	0.06201	+1.89%	0.0183	✗	0.51
2026-09-14	oos	0.06052	0.060343	-0.29%	0.06086	+0.56%	0.0307	✗	0.66
2026-09-13	oos	0.060775	0.060615	-0.26%	0.06052	-0.42%	0.0128	✓	0.63
2026-09-12	oos	0.062595	0.062414	-0.29%	0.060775	-2.91%	0.0227	✓	0.65
2026-09-11	oos	0.065045	0.064832	-0.33%	0.062595	-3.77%	0.0356	✓	0.65
2026-09-10	oos	0.06506	0.064865	-0.30%	0.065045	-0.02%	0.0028	✓	0.64
2026-09-09	oos	0.06486	0.06472	-0.22%	0.06506	+0.31%	0.0224	✗	0.76
2026-09-08	oos	0.066495	0.066346	-0.22%	0.06486	-2.46%	0.0210	✓	0.78
2026-09-07	oos	0.068065	0.067921	-0.21%	0.066495	-2.31%	0.0145	✓	0.82
2026-09-06	oos	0.06993	0.069807	-0.18%	0.068065	-2.67%	0.0115	✓	0.88
2026-09-05	oos	0.071875	0.071735	-0.20%	0.06993	-2.71%	0.0318	✓	1.00
2026-09-04	oos	0.07207	0.071919	-0.21%	0.071875	-0.27%	0.0026	✓	1.00
2026-09-03	oos	0.07313	0.073094	-0.05%	0.07207	-1.45%	0.0056	✗	1.00
2026-09-02	oos	0.07424	0.074022	-0.29%	0.07313	-1.50%	0.0620	✓	1.00
2026-09-01	oos	0.07438	0.074192	-0.25%	0.07424	-0.19%	0.0018	✓	1.00
2026-08-31	oos	0.07495	0.074832	-0.16%	0.07438	-0.76%	0.0089	✗	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.07579	0.075629	-0.21%	0.07495	-1.11%	0.0205	✓	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.07513	0.075012	-0.16%	0.07579	+0.88%	0.0176	✗	1.00
2026-08-28	oos	0.07633	0.076194	-0.18%	0.07513	-1.57%	0.0191	✓	1.00
2026-08-27	oos	0.07696	0.076932	-0.04%	0.07633	-0.82%	0.0230	✗	1.00
2026-08-26	oos	0.08217	0.082079	-0.11%	0.07696	-6.34%	0.0801	✓	1.00
2026-08-25	oos	0.08355	0.083428	-0.15%	0.08217	-1.65%	0.0215	✓	1.00
2026-08-24	oos	0.08871	0.088587	-0.14%	0.08355	-5.82%	0.0528	✓	1.00
2026-08-23	oos	0.08672	0.086531	-0.22%	0.08871	+2.29%	0.0089	✗	1.00
2026-08-22	oos	0.08671	0.086478	-0.27%	0.08672	+0.01%	0.0059	✓	1.00
2026-08-21	oos	0.08346	0.083299	-0.19%	0.08671	+3.89%	0.0565	✗	1.00
2026-08-20	oos	0.08276	0.08247	-0.35%	0.08346	+0.85%	0.0583	✓	1.00
2026-08-19	oos	0.08486	0.084583	-0.33%	0.08276	-2.47%	0.0740	✓	1.00
2026-08-18	oos	0.08495	0.084831	-0.14%	0.08486	-0.11%	0.0686	✓	1.00
2026-08-17	oos	0.08465	0.084549	-0.12%	0.08495	+0.35%	0.0016	✗	1.00
2026-08-16	oos	0.08446	0.084407	-0.06%	0.08465	+0.22%	0.0229	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.