SWM

Swarm · · lstm_s6

token id: #257
symbol: SWM
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-19
predictions: 165

Track record at +7d

assessed

48

of 55 predictions shown

direction hit

58.3%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.2623

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0225

actual +0.0240

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.09181	0.090732	-1.17%	–	pending	–	–	-1.57
2026-10-20	oos	0.091445	0.09039	-1.15%	–	pending	–	–	-1.56
2026-10-19	oos	0.09194	0.090827	-1.21%	–	pending	–	–	-1.57
2026-10-18	oos	0.093595	0.092421	-1.25%	–	pending	–	–	-1.58
2026-10-17	oos	0.09361	0.092425	-1.27%	–	pending	–	–	-1.58
2026-10-16	oos	0.09504	0.093812	-1.29%	–	pending	–	–	-1.58
2026-10-15	oos	0.08869	0.08772	-1.09%	–	pending	–	–	-1.55
2026-10-14	oos	0.089875	0.088862	-1.13%	0.09181	+2.15%	0.0540	✗	-1.55
2026-10-13	oos	0.10361	0.102174	-1.39%	0.091445	-11.74%	0.1143	✓	-1.69
2026-10-12	oos	0.100975	0.099547	-1.41%	0.09194	-8.95%	0.0775	✓	-1.72
2026-10-11	oos	0.10023	0.098961	-1.27%	0.093595	-6.62%	0.0910	✓	-1.75
2026-10-10	oos	0.100065	0.098749	-1.32%	0.09361	-6.45%	0.0861	✓	-1.75
2026-10-09	oos	0.09889	0.097642	-1.26%	0.09504	-3.89%	0.0494	✓	-1.75
2026-10-08	oos	0.099015	0.097759	-1.27%	0.08869	-10.43%	0.0881	✓	-1.76
2026-10-07	oos	0.096365	0.095385	-1.02%	0.089875	-6.73%	0.0959	✓	-1.76
2026-10-06	oos	0.098365	0.097603	-0.77%	0.10361	+5.33%	0.0068	✓	-1.83
2026-10-05	oos	0.084465	0.084596	+0.15%	0.100975	+19.55%	0.0916	✓	-1.78
2026-10-04	oos	0.092855	0.092624	-0.25%	0.10023	+7.94%	0.0177	✗	-1.84
2026-10-03	oos	0.090795	0.090566	-0.25%	0.100065	+10.21%	0.0584	✗	-1.89
2026-10-02	oos	0.09368	0.093294	-0.41%	0.09889	+5.56%	0.0138	✗	-1.89
2026-10-01	oos	0.095145	0.094689	-0.48%	0.099015	+4.07%	0.0272	✓	-1.90
2026-09-30	oos	0.10818	0.107332	-0.78%	0.096365	-10.92%	0.1140	✓	-1.86
2026-09-29	oos	0.12674	0.125375	-1.08%	0.098365	-22.39%	0.2001	✓	-1.89
2026-09-28	oos	0.123535	0.122269	-1.02%	0.084465	-31.63%	0.3187	✓	-1.89
2026-09-27	oos	0.15819	0.154052	-2.62%	0.092855	-41.30%	0.4563	✓	-2.09
2026-09-26	oos	0.127905	0.12646	-1.13%	0.090795	-29.01%	0.3235	✓	-2.04
2026-09-25	oos	0.10542	0.104792	-0.60%	0.09368	-11.14%	0.1022	✓	-2.03
2026-09-24	oos	0.10401	0.103457	-0.53%	0.095145	-8.52%	0.0727	✓	-2.02
2026-09-23	oos	0.10388	0.103333	-0.53%	0.10818	+4.14%	0.0261	✗	-2.02
2026-09-22	oos	0.094815	0.094755	-0.06%	0.12674	+33.67%	0.2323	✗	-1.94
2026-09-21	oos	0.10284	0.102593	-0.24%	0.123535	+20.12%	0.1126	✗	-1.98
2026-09-20	oos	0.11312	0.111968	-1.02%	0.15819	+39.84%	0.4307	✗	-2.13
2026-09-19	oos	0.11891	0.117409	-1.26%	0.127905	+7.56%	0.1681	✗	-2.15
2026-09-18	oos	0.1196	0.117848	-1.47%	0.10542	-11.86%	0.0277	✓	-2.15
2026-09-17	oos	0.12931	0.124831	-3.46%	0.10401	-19.57%	0.2826	✓	1.00
2026-09-16	oos	0.14044	0.134205	-4.44%	0.10388	-26.03%	0.3588	✓	1.00
2026-09-15	oos	0.129815	0.124526	-4.07%	0.094815	-26.96%	0.4040	✓	1.00
2026-09-14	oos	0.15573	0.147043	-5.58%	0.10284	-33.96%	0.4598	✓	1.00
2026-09-13	oos	0.156615	0.147132	-6.06%	0.11312	-27.77%	0.3181	✓	1.00
2026-09-12	oos	0.18555	0.170741	-7.98%	0.11891	-35.91%	0.4119	✓	1.00
2026-09-11	oos	0.196105	0.17784	-9.31%	0.1196	-39.01%	0.4431	✓	1.00
2026-09-10	oos	0.18591	0.167005	-10.17%	0.12931	-30.44%	0.2534	✓	1.00
2026-09-09	oos	0.1367	0.127657	-6.62%	0.14044	+2.74%	0.1231	✗	1.00
2026-09-08	oos	0.13717	0.127349	-7.16%	0.129815	-5.36%	0.0564	✓	1.00
2026-09-07	oos	0.117485	0.111694	-4.93%	0.15573	+32.55%	0.3440	✗	1.00
2026-09-06	oos	0.102915	0.099835	-2.99%	0.156615	+52.18%	0.4953	✗	1.00
2026-09-05	oos	0.07698	0.075962	-1.32%	0.18555	+141.04%	0.9258	✗	1.00
2026-09-04	oos	0.07564	0.074724	-1.21%	0.196105	+159.26%	0.9963	✗	1.00
2026-09-03	oos	0.07329	0.07271	-0.79%	0.18591	+153.66%	0.9987	✗	1.00
2026-09-02	oos	0.07012	0.069303	-1.16%	0.1367	+94.95%	0.6667	✗	1.00
2026-09-01	oos	0.06978	0.069069	-1.02%	0.13717	+96.57%	0.6726	✗	1.00
2026-08-31	oos	0.06946	0.069008	-0.65%	0.117485	+69.14%	0.5254	✗	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.07144	0.070857	-0.82%	0.102915	+44.06%	0.3394	✗	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.07166	0.071282	-0.53%	0.07698	+7.42%	0.0567	✗	1.00
2026-08-28	oos	0.07463	0.07412	-0.68%	0.07564	+1.35%	0.0030	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.