SWM

Swarm · · lstm_s6

token id: #257
symbol: SWM
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-19
predictions: 168

Track record at +1d

assessed

55

of 56 predictions shown

direction hit

45.5%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0729

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0065

actual +0.0044

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	0.090935	0.090565	-0.41%	–	pending	–	–	-1.55
2026-10-21	oos	0.090825	0.09043	-0.43%	0.090935	+0.12%	0.0091	✗	-1.55
2026-10-20	oos	0.091445	0.09103	-0.45%	0.090825	-0.68%	0.0181	✗	-1.56
2026-10-19	oos	0.09194	0.091505	-0.47%	0.091445	-0.54%	0.0204	✗	-1.57
2026-10-18	oos	0.093595	0.093136	-0.49%	0.09194	-1.77%	0.0162	✓	-1.58
2026-10-17	oos	0.09361	0.09315	-0.49%	0.093595	-0.02%	0.0169	✗	-1.58
2026-10-16	oos	0.09504	0.094563	-0.50%	0.09361	-1.50%	0.0124	✓	-1.58
2026-10-15	oos	0.08869	0.088318	-0.42%	0.09504	+7.16%	0.0615	✗	-1.55
2026-10-14	oos	0.089875	0.089476	-0.44%	0.08869	-1.32%	0.0018	✓	-1.55
2026-10-13	oos	0.10361	0.103033	-0.56%	0.089875	-13.26%	0.1681	✓	-1.69
2026-10-12	oos	0.100975	0.100409	-0.56%	0.10361	+2.61%	0.0598	✗	-1.72
2026-10-11	oos	0.10023	0.099693	-0.54%	0.100975	+0.74%	0.0281	✓	-1.75
2026-10-10	oos	0.100065	0.099511	-0.55%	0.10023	+0.16%	0.0234	✗	-1.75
2026-10-09	oos	0.09889	0.098349	-0.55%	0.100065	+1.19%	0.0251	✗	-1.75
2026-10-08	oos	0.099015	0.098459	-0.56%	0.09889	-0.13%	0.0226	✗	-1.76
2026-10-07	oos	0.096365	0.095884	-0.50%	0.099015	+2.75%	0.0016	✓	-1.76
2026-10-06	oos	0.098365	0.097915	-0.46%	0.096365	-2.03%	0.0651	✓	-1.83
2026-10-05	oos	0.084465	0.08426	-0.24%	0.098365	+16.46%	0.1504	✗	-1.78
2026-10-04	oos	0.092855	0.092565	-0.31%	0.084465	-9.04%	0.1078	✓	-1.84
2026-10-03	oos	0.090795	0.090528	-0.29%	0.092855	+2.27%	0.0644	✗	-1.89
2026-10-02	oos	0.09368	0.093385	-0.32%	0.090795	-3.08%	0.0228	✓	-1.89
2026-10-01	oos	0.095145	0.094845	-0.31%	0.09368	-1.54%	0.0201	✓	-1.90
2026-09-30	oos	0.10818	0.107693	-0.45%	0.095145	-12.05%	0.0954	✓	-1.86
2026-09-29	oos	0.12674	0.126011	-0.58%	0.10818	-14.64%	0.1544	✓	-1.89
2026-09-28	oos	0.123535	0.122841	-0.56%	0.12674	+2.59%	0.0354	✗	-1.89
2026-09-27	oos	0.15819	0.156775	-0.89%	0.123535	-21.91%	0.2633	✓	-2.09
2026-09-26	oos	0.127905	0.127102	-0.63%	0.15819	+23.68%	0.2199	✗	-2.04
2026-09-25	oos	0.10542	0.104935	-0.46%	0.127905	+21.33%	0.2057	✗	-2.03
2026-09-24	oos	0.10401	0.103555	-0.44%	0.10542	+1.36%	0.0108	✗	-2.02
2026-09-23	oos	0.10388	0.103434	-0.43%	0.10401	+0.13%	0.0057	✗	-2.02
2026-09-22	oos	0.094815	0.094535	-0.30%	0.10388	+9.56%	0.0528	✗	-1.94
2026-09-21	oos	0.10284	0.102478	-0.35%	0.094815	-7.80%	0.0868	✓	-1.98
2026-09-20	oos	0.11312	0.112517	-0.53%	0.10284	-9.09%	0.0484	✗	-2.13
2026-09-19	oos	0.11891	0.118203	-0.59%	0.11312	-4.87%	0.0459	✓	-2.15
2026-09-18	oos	0.1196	0.11886	-0.62%	0.11891	-0.58%	0.0099	✗	-2.15
2026-09-17	oos	0.12931	0.128295	-0.78%	0.1196	-7.51%	0.1278	✓	1.00
2026-09-16	oos	0.14044	0.139183	-0.89%	0.12931	-7.93%	0.0763	✓	1.00
2026-09-15	oos	0.129815	0.128736	-0.83%	0.14044	+8.18%	0.0796	✗	1.00
2026-09-14	oos	0.15573	0.154059	-1.07%	0.129815	-16.64%	0.1375	✓	1.00
2026-09-13	oos	0.156615	0.154816	-1.15%	0.15573	-0.57%	0.0119	✓	1.00
2026-09-12	oos	0.18555	0.182787	-1.49%	0.156615	-15.59%	0.1485	✓	1.00
2026-09-11	oos	0.196105	0.192864	-1.65%	0.18555	-5.38%	0.0394	✓	1.00
2026-09-10	oos	0.18591	0.182758	-1.70%	0.196105	+5.48%	0.0617	✗	1.00
2026-09-09	oos	0.1367	0.134842	-1.36%	0.18591	+36.00%	0.3437	✗	1.00
2026-09-08	oos	0.13717	0.135157	-1.47%	0.1367	-0.34%	0.0134	✓	1.00
2026-09-07	oos	0.117485	0.115988	-1.27%	0.13717	+16.76%	0.1759	✗	1.00
2026-09-06	oos	0.102915	0.101878	-1.01%	0.117485	+14.16%	0.1582	✗	1.00
2026-09-05	oos	0.07698	0.076538	-0.57%	0.102915	+33.69%	0.2898	✗	1.00
2026-09-04	oos	0.07564	0.075213	-0.56%	0.07698	+1.77%	0.0213	✗	1.00
2026-09-03	oos	0.07329	0.072986	-0.41%	0.07564	+3.21%	0.0555	✗	1.00
2026-09-02	oos	0.07012	0.069711	-0.58%	0.07329	+4.52%	0.0002	✓	1.00
2026-09-01	oos	0.06978	0.069388	-0.56%	0.07012	+0.49%	0.0117	✗	1.00
2026-08-31	oos	0.06946	0.069161	-0.43%	0.06978	+0.46%	0.0238	✗	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.07144	0.071085	-0.50%	0.06946	-2.77%	0.0346	✓	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.07166	0.071397	-0.37%	0.07144	-0.31%	0.0079	✗	1.00
2026-08-28	oos	0.07463	0.074349	-0.38%	0.07166	-3.98%	0.0419	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.