SWM

Swarm · · lstm_s4

token id: #257
symbol: SWM
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-19
predictions: 168

Track record at +7d

assessed

49

of 56 predictions shown

direction hit

55.1%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.2597

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0293

actual +0.0251

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	0.090935	0.089657	-1.41%	–	pending	–	–	-1.55
2026-10-21	oos	0.090825	0.089779	-1.15%	–	pending	–	–	-1.55
2026-10-20	oos	0.091445	0.090288	-1.27%	–	pending	–	–	-1.56
2026-10-19	oos	0.09194	0.090726	-1.32%	–	pending	–	–	-1.57
2026-10-18	oos	0.093595	0.092312	-1.37%	–	pending	–	–	-1.58
2026-10-17	oos	0.09361	0.092233	-1.47%	–	pending	–	–	-1.58
2026-10-16	oos	0.09504	0.093566	-1.55%	–	pending	–	–	-1.58
2026-10-15	oos	0.08869	0.087353	-1.51%	0.090935	+2.53%	0.0793	✗	-1.55
2026-10-14	oos	0.089875	0.088527	-1.50%	0.090825	+1.06%	0.0718	✗	-1.55
2026-10-13	oos	0.10361	0.101849	-1.70%	0.091445	-11.74%	0.1111	✓	-1.69
2026-10-12	oos	0.100975	0.099268	-1.69%	0.09194	-8.95%	0.0747	✓	-1.72
2026-10-11	oos	0.10023	0.098747	-1.48%	0.093595	-6.62%	0.0888	✓	-1.75
2026-10-10	oos	0.100065	0.098531	-1.53%	0.09361	-6.45%	0.0839	✓	-1.75
2026-10-09	oos	0.09889	0.097368	-1.54%	0.09504	-3.89%	0.0465	✓	-1.75
2026-10-08	oos	0.099015	0.097429	-1.60%	0.08869	-10.43%	0.0847	✓	-1.76
2026-10-07	oos	0.096365	0.095092	-1.32%	0.089875	-6.73%	0.0929	✓	-1.76
2026-10-06	oos	0.098365	0.097288	-1.09%	0.10361	+5.33%	0.0100	✓	-1.83
2026-10-05	oos	0.084465	0.083658	-0.96%	0.100975	+19.55%	0.1027	✗	-1.78
2026-10-04	oos	0.092855	0.09222	-0.68%	0.10023	+7.94%	0.0221	✗	-1.84
2026-10-03	oos	0.090795	0.090026	-0.85%	0.100065	+10.21%	0.0644	✗	-1.89
2026-10-02	oos	0.09368	0.092841	-0.90%	0.09889	+5.56%	0.0187	✗	-1.89
2026-10-01	oos	0.095145	0.09426	-0.93%	0.099015	+4.07%	0.0227	✓	-1.90
2026-09-30	oos	0.10818	0.10638	-1.66%	0.096365	-10.92%	0.1051	✓	-1.86
2026-09-29	oos	0.12674	0.123105	-2.87%	0.098365	-22.39%	0.1818	✓	-1.89
2026-09-28	oos	0.123535	0.120136	-2.75%	0.084465	-31.63%	0.3011	✓	-1.89
2026-09-27	oos	0.15819	0.149813	-5.30%	0.092855	-41.30%	0.4284	✓	-2.09
2026-09-26	oos	0.127905	0.123917	-3.12%	0.090795	-29.01%	0.3031	✓	-2.04
2026-09-25	oos	0.10542	0.10369	-1.64%	0.09368	-11.14%	0.0916	✓	-2.03
2026-09-24	oos	0.10401	0.102444	-1.51%	0.095145	-8.52%	0.0628	✓	-2.02
2026-09-23	oos	0.10388	0.102255	-1.56%	0.10818	+4.14%	0.0365	✗	-2.02
2026-09-22	oos	0.094815	0.094264	-0.58%	0.12674	+33.67%	0.2375	✗	-1.94
2026-09-21	oos	0.10284	0.102345	-0.48%	0.123535	+20.12%	0.1150	✗	-1.98
2026-09-20	oos	0.11312	0.109607	-3.11%	0.15819	+39.84%	0.4520	✗	-2.13
2026-09-19	oos	0.11891	0.114909	-3.36%	0.127905	+7.56%	0.1897	✗	-2.15
2026-09-18	oos	0.1196	0.11533	-3.57%	0.10542	-11.86%	0.0061	✓	-2.15
2026-09-17	oos	0.12931	0.123977	-4.12%	0.10401	-19.57%	0.2757	✓	1.00
2026-09-16	oos	0.14044	0.133922	-4.64%	0.10388	-26.03%	0.3567	✓	1.00
2026-09-15	oos	0.129815	0.123852	-4.59%	0.094815	-26.96%	0.3986	✓	1.00
2026-09-14	oos	0.15573	0.147052	-5.57%	0.10284	-33.96%	0.4599	✓	1.00
2026-09-13	oos	0.156615	0.14725	-5.98%	0.11312	-27.77%	0.3189	✓	1.00
2026-09-12	oos	0.18555	0.171772	-7.43%	0.11891	-35.91%	0.4179	✓	1.00
2026-09-11	oos	0.196105	0.179515	-8.46%	0.1196	-39.01%	0.4525	✓	1.00
2026-09-10	oos	0.18591	0.168991	-9.10%	0.12931	-30.44%	0.2652	✓	1.00
2026-09-09	oos	0.1367	0.12681	-7.23%	0.14044	+2.74%	0.1298	✗	1.00
2026-09-08	oos	0.13717	0.126258	-7.95%	0.129815	-5.36%	0.0650	✓	1.00
2026-09-07	oos	0.117485	0.109694	-6.63%	0.15573	+32.55%	0.3621	✗	1.00
2026-09-06	oos	0.102915	0.097947	-4.83%	0.156615	+52.18%	0.5144	✗	1.00
2026-09-05	oos	0.07698	0.07571	-1.65%	0.18555	+141.04%	0.9291	✗	1.00
2026-09-04	oos	0.07564	0.07445	-1.57%	0.196105	+159.26%	1.0000	✗	1.00
2026-09-03	oos	0.07329	0.072665	-0.85%	0.18591	+153.66%	0.9993	✗	1.00
2026-09-02	oos	0.07012	0.0687	-2.02%	0.1367	+94.95%	0.6755	✗	1.00
2026-09-01	oos	0.06978	0.06856	-1.75%	0.13717	+96.57%	0.6800	✗	1.00
2026-08-31	oos	0.06946	0.068666	-1.14%	0.117485	+69.14%	0.5303	✗	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.07144	0.070391	-1.47%	0.102915	+44.06%	0.3460	✗	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.07166	0.070898	-1.06%	0.07698	+7.42%	0.0621	✗	1.00
2026-08-28	oos	0.07463	0.073765	-1.16%	0.07564	+1.35%	0.0018	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.