SWM

Swarm · · lstm_s4

token id: #257
symbol: SWM
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-19
predictions: 168

Track record at +1d

assessed

55

of 56 predictions shown

direction hit

45.5%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0731

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0092

actual +0.0044

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	0.090935	0.090511	-0.47%	–	pending	–	–	-1.55
2026-10-21	oos	0.090825	0.090594	-0.25%	0.090935	+0.12%	0.0073	✗	-1.55
2026-10-20	oos	0.091445	0.091193	-0.28%	0.090825	-0.68%	0.0163	✗	-1.56
2026-10-19	oos	0.09194	0.091689	-0.27%	0.091445	-0.54%	0.0184	✗	-1.57
2026-10-18	oos	0.093595	0.093318	-0.30%	0.09194	-1.77%	0.0181	✓	-1.58
2026-10-17	oos	0.09361	0.093308	-0.32%	0.093595	-0.02%	0.0152	✗	-1.58
2026-10-16	oos	0.09504	0.094697	-0.36%	0.09361	-1.50%	0.0139	✓	-1.58
2026-10-15	oos	0.08869	0.088398	-0.33%	0.09504	+7.16%	0.0606	✗	-1.55
2026-10-14	oos	0.089875	0.089599	-0.31%	0.08869	-1.32%	0.0004	✓	-1.55
2026-10-13	oos	0.10361	0.103192	-0.40%	0.089875	-13.26%	0.1697	✓	-1.69
2026-10-12	oos	0.100975	0.100585	-0.39%	0.10361	+2.61%	0.0580	✗	-1.72
2026-10-11	oos	0.10023	0.099879	-0.35%	0.100975	+0.74%	0.0300	✓	-1.75
2026-10-10	oos	0.100065	0.099713	-0.35%	0.10023	+0.16%	0.0213	✗	-1.75
2026-10-09	oos	0.09889	0.098538	-0.36%	0.100065	+1.19%	0.0231	✗	-1.75
2026-10-08	oos	0.099015	0.098657	-0.36%	0.09889	-0.13%	0.0206	✗	-1.76
2026-10-07	oos	0.096365	0.096085	-0.29%	0.099015	+2.75%	0.0037	✓	-1.76
2026-10-06	oos	0.098365	0.098102	-0.27%	0.096365	-2.03%	0.0670	✓	-1.83
2026-10-05	oos	0.084465	0.084343	-0.14%	0.098365	+16.46%	0.1494	✗	-1.78
2026-10-04	oos	0.092855	0.092723	-0.14%	0.084465	-9.04%	0.1095	✓	-1.84
2026-10-03	oos	0.090795	0.090652	-0.16%	0.092855	+2.27%	0.0630	✗	-1.89
2026-10-02	oos	0.09368	0.093498	-0.19%	0.090795	-3.08%	0.0240	✓	-1.89
2026-10-01	oos	0.095145	0.094911	-0.25%	0.09368	-1.54%	0.0208	✓	-1.90
2026-09-30	oos	0.10818	0.107729	-0.42%	0.095145	-12.05%	0.0957	✓	-1.86
2026-09-29	oos	0.12674	0.125776	-0.76%	0.10818	-14.64%	0.1526	✓	-1.89
2026-09-28	oos	0.123535	0.122643	-0.72%	0.12674	+2.59%	0.0370	✗	-1.89
2026-09-27	oos	0.15819	0.15517	-1.91%	0.123535	-21.91%	0.2530	✓	-2.09
2026-09-26	oos	0.127905	0.126746	-0.91%	0.15819	+23.68%	0.2227	✗	-2.04
2026-09-25	oos	0.10542	0.104979	-0.42%	0.127905	+21.33%	0.2053	✗	-2.03
2026-09-24	oos	0.10401	0.103584	-0.41%	0.10542	+1.36%	0.0105	✗	-2.02
2026-09-23	oos	0.10388	0.103427	-0.44%	0.10401	+0.13%	0.0058	✗	-2.02
2026-09-22	oos	0.094815	0.094601	-0.23%	0.10388	+9.56%	0.0521	✗	-1.94
2026-09-21	oos	0.10284	0.102595	-0.24%	0.094815	-7.80%	0.0880	✓	-1.98
2026-09-20	oos	0.11312	0.112211	-0.80%	0.10284	-9.09%	0.0511	✗	-2.13
2026-09-19	oos	0.11891	0.117856	-0.89%	0.11312	-4.87%	0.0430	✓	-2.15
2026-09-18	oos	0.1196	0.118448	-0.96%	0.11891	-0.58%	0.0134	✗	-2.15
2026-09-17	oos	0.12931	0.127807	-1.16%	0.1196	-7.51%	0.1240	✓	1.00
2026-09-16	oos	0.14044	0.138452	-1.42%	0.12931	-7.93%	0.0710	✓	1.00
2026-09-15	oos	0.129815	0.128024	-1.38%	0.14044	+8.18%	0.0852	✗	1.00
2026-09-14	oos	0.15573	0.152673	-1.96%	0.129815	-16.64%	0.1285	✓	1.00
2026-09-13	oos	0.156615	0.153138	-2.22%	0.15573	-0.57%	0.0010	✓	1.00
2026-09-12	oos	0.18555	0.179502	-3.26%	0.156615	-15.59%	0.1304	✓	1.00
2026-09-11	oos	0.196105	0.188141	-4.06%	0.18555	-5.38%	0.0146	✓	1.00
2026-09-10	oos	0.18591	0.177448	-4.55%	0.196105	+5.48%	0.0912	✗	1.00
2026-09-09	oos	0.1367	0.13246	-3.10%	0.18591	+36.00%	0.3616	✗	1.00
2026-09-08	oos	0.13717	0.132204	-3.62%	0.1367	-0.34%	0.0355	✓	1.00
2026-09-07	oos	0.117485	0.114277	-2.73%	0.13717	+16.76%	0.1908	✗	1.00
2026-09-06	oos	0.102915	0.101079	-1.78%	0.117485	+14.16%	0.1661	✗	1.00
2026-09-05	oos	0.07698	0.076567	-0.54%	0.102915	+33.69%	0.2894	✗	1.00
2026-09-04	oos	0.07564	0.075281	-0.47%	0.07698	+1.77%	0.0204	✗	1.00
2026-09-03	oos	0.07329	0.073054	-0.32%	0.07564	+3.21%	0.0545	✗	1.00
2026-09-02	oos	0.07012	0.069762	-0.51%	0.07329	+4.52%	0.0006	✓	1.00
2026-09-01	oos	0.06978	0.069512	-0.38%	0.07012	+0.49%	0.0099	✗	1.00
2026-08-31	oos	0.06946	0.069294	-0.24%	0.06978	+0.46%	0.0219	✗	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.07144	0.071199	-0.34%	0.06946	-2.77%	0.0362	✓	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.07166	0.071472	-0.26%	0.07144	-0.31%	0.0069	✗	1.00
2026-08-28	oos	0.07463	0.074385	-0.33%	0.07166	-3.98%	0.0424	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.