MICRODUCK

microduck · Robinhood · lstm_s4

token id: #784
symbol: MICRODUCK
variant: –
chain: Robinhood
address: 0xd5f1afea47b1a9eab414d2ee740cf1d6d039e725
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-29
predictions: 135

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +1d

assessed

of 45 predictions shown

direction hit

59.1%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.1502

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0025

actual -0.0513

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.001936	0.001933	-0.15%	–	pending	–	–	0.82
2026-10-20	oos	0.0018	0.001802	+0.16%	0.001936	+7.59%	0.0740	✓	0.84
2026-10-19	oos	0.001942	0.001943	+0.03%	0.0018	-7.34%	0.0882	✗	0.88
2026-10-18	oos	0.001786	0.001792	+0.31%	0.001942	+8.73%	0.0825	✓	0.90
2026-10-17	oos	0.002094	0.002091	-0.15%	0.001786	-14.71%	0.1649	✓	0.95
2026-10-16	oos	0.002361	0.002341	-0.85%	0.002094	-11.33%	0.1103	✓	0.94
2026-10-15	oos	0.002423	0.002398	-1.04%	0.002361	-2.54%	0.0080	✓	0.95
2026-10-14	oos	0.002253	0.002244	-0.40%	0.002423	+7.55%	0.0705	✗	0.91
2026-10-13	oos	0.002043	0.002044	+0.06%	0.002253	+10.28%	0.1177	✓	1.10
2026-10-12	oos	0.002155	0.002154	-0.00%	0.002043	-5.18%	0.0716	✓	1.12
2026-10-11	oos	0.001829	0.001837	+0.41%	0.002155	+17.76%	0.1944	✓	1.50
2026-10-10	oos	0.001829	0.001838	+0.48%	0.001829	+0.03%	0.0181	✗	1.47
2026-10-09	oos	0.001849	0.001858	+0.52%	0.001829	-1.05%	0.0223	✗	1.47
2026-10-08	oos	0.002105	0.002113	+0.38%	0.001849	-12.19%	0.1495	✗	1.52
2026-10-07	oos	0.002412	0.002409	-0.14%	0.002105	-12.73%	0.1069	✓	1.45
2026-10-06	oos	0.00238	0.002376	-0.15%	0.002412	+1.34%	0.0595	✗	1.66
2026-10-05	oos	0.002877	0.002844	-1.15%	0.00238	-17.27%	0.1741	✓	1.62
2026-10-04	oos	0.002327	0.002329	+0.10%	0.002877	+23.66%	0.2276	✓	1.84
2026-10-03	oos	0.001718	0.001726	+0.46%	0.002327	+35.42%	0.2694	✓	1.42
2026-10-02	oos	0.001685	0.001691	+0.40%	0.001718	+1.99%	0.0117	✓	1.41
2026-10-01	oos	0.001688	0.001694	+0.33%	0.001685	-0.21%	0.0005	✓	1.45
2026-09-30	oos	0.00239	0.002404	+0.58%	0.001688	-29.37%	0.3802	✗	1.73
2026-09-29	oos	0.003095	0.003108	+0.44%	0.00239	-22.77%	0.2611	✗	1.69
2026-09-28	oos	0.003635	0.003645	+0.27%	0.003095	-14.88%	0.1675	✗	1.69
2026-09-27	oos	0.00367	0.003682	+0.32%	0.003635	-0.94%	0.0007	✓	1.00
2026-09-26	oos	0.004564	0.004564	+0.01%	0.00367	-19.59%	0.2186	✗	1.00
2026-09-25	oos	0.004941	0.004934	-0.16%	0.004564	-7.64%	0.0817	✓	1.00
2026-09-24	oos	0.004495	0.004502	+0.17%	0.004941	+9.93%	0.0965	✓	1.00
2026-09-23	oos	0.004587	0.004596	+0.20%	0.004495	-2.01%	0.0224	✗	1.00
2026-09-22	oos	0.004842	0.004853	+0.24%	0.004587	-5.27%	0.0351	✗	1.00
2026-09-21	oos	0.005348	0.005352	+0.08%	0.004842	-9.46%	0.0956	✗	1.00
2026-09-20	oos	0.004465	0.004458	-0.15%	0.005348	+19.78%	0.1171	✗	1.00
2026-09-19	oos	0.004269	0.004259	-0.22%	0.004465	+4.59%	0.0480	✗	1.00
2026-09-18	oos	0.005603	0.005586	-0.30%	0.004269	-23.81%	0.2734	✓	1.00
2026-09-17	oos	0.005509	0.005479	-0.54%	0.005603	+1.71%	0.0353	✓	1.00
2026-09-16	oos	0.004344	0.004283	-1.40%	0.005509	+26.82%	0.2490	✗	1.00
2026-09-15	oos	0.005922	0.005875	-0.80%	0.004344	-26.65%	0.3092	✓	1.00
2026-09-14	oos	0.008547	0.008473	-0.86%	0.005922	-30.71%	0.3245	✓	1.00
2026-09-13	oos	0.006287	0.006199	-1.40%	0.008547	+35.96%	0.3035	✗	1.00
2026-09-12	oos	0.008404	0.008317	-1.03%	0.006287	-25.20%	0.2739	✓	1.00
2026-09-11	oos	0.006361	0.006183	-2.80%	0.008404	+32.11%	0.3061	✗	1.00
2026-09-10	oos	0.008453	0.008312	-1.67%	0.006361	-24.74%	0.2761	✓	1.00
2026-09-09	oos	0.010485	0.0104	-0.82%	0.008453	-19.38%	0.1847	✓	1.00
2026-09-08	oos	0.017855	0.017791	-0.36%	0.010485	-41.28%	0.5267	✓	1.00
2026-09-07	oos	0.018005	0.01796	-0.25%	0.017855	-0.83%	0.0023	✓	1.00