BASED

Based · Ethereum · lstm_s4

token id: #838
symbol: BASED
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0x4f2b33840227ddd0e28da8d4185d6fa07adfed87
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-03-30
predictions: 591

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +7d

assessed

190

of 197 predictions shown

direction hit

52.1%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.1395

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0102

actual -0.0066

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.05086	0.050871	+0.02%	–	pending	–	–	0.81
2026-10-20	oos	0.050125	0.050161	+0.07%	–	pending	–	–	0.86
2026-10-19	oos	0.047365	0.047443	+0.16%	–	pending	–	–	0.84
2026-10-18	oos	0.048835	0.048969	+0.27%	–	pending	–	–	0.83
2026-10-17	oos	0.05305	0.053185	+0.25%	–	pending	–	–	0.83
2026-10-16	oos	0.056	0.056039	+0.07%	–	pending	–	–	0.83
2026-10-15	oos	0.0446	0.044938	+0.76%	–	pending	–	–	0.90
2026-10-14	oos	0.043815	0.044286	+1.07%	0.05086	+16.08%	0.1261	✓	0.90
2026-10-13	oos	0.047865	0.048091	+0.47%	0.050125	+4.72%	0.0431	✓	0.84
2026-10-12	oos	0.05471	0.054951	+0.44%	0.047365	-13.43%	0.1496	✗	0.89
2026-10-11	oos	0.066235	0.06639	+0.23%	0.048835	-26.27%	0.2941	✗	0.64
2026-10-10	oos	0.068045	0.068134	+0.13%	0.05305	-22.04%	0.2374	✗	0.69
2026-10-09	oos	0.068525	0.068644	+0.17%	0.056	-18.28%	0.1949	✗	0.68
2026-10-08	oos	0.065965	0.066246	+0.43%	0.0446	-32.39%	0.3993	✗	0.69
2026-10-07	oos	0.06749	0.06781	+0.47%	0.043815	-35.08%	0.4230	✗	0.66
2026-10-06	oos	0.06713	0.067615	+0.72%	0.047865	-28.70%	0.3233	✗	0.77
2026-10-05	oos	0.06217	0.062654	+0.78%	0.05471	-12.00%	0.0995	✗	0.75
2026-10-04	oos	0.062415	0.063023	+0.97%	0.066235	+6.12%	0.0761	✓	0.79
2026-10-03	oos	0.06187	0.062269	+0.65%	0.068045	+9.98%	0.1061	✓	0.80
2026-10-02	oos	0.06284	0.0633	+0.73%	0.068525	+9.05%	0.0980	✓	0.80
2026-10-01	oos	0.065225	0.065764	+0.83%	0.065965	+1.13%	0.0329	✓	0.79
2026-09-30	oos	0.06616	0.066607	+0.68%	0.06749	+2.01%	0.0158	✓	0.77
2026-09-29	oos	0.0669	0.067505	+0.90%	0.06713	+0.34%	0.0193	✗	0.61
2026-09-28	oos	0.06719	0.067781	+0.88%	0.06217	-7.47%	0.1068	✗	0.75
2026-09-27	oos	0.07096	0.071655	+0.98%	0.062415	-12.04%	0.1509	✗	0.54
2026-09-26	oos	0.071135	0.071806	+0.94%	0.06187	-13.02%	0.1510	✗	0.54
2026-09-25	oos	0.069215	0.069825	+0.88%	0.06284	-9.21%	0.1079	✗	0.51
2026-09-24	oos	0.06689	0.067669	+1.16%	0.065225	-2.49%	0.0396	✗	0.51
2026-09-23	oos	0.06365	0.064545	+1.41%	0.06616	+3.94%	0.0297	✓	0.51
2026-09-22	oos	0.068925	0.070547	+2.35%	0.0669	-2.94%	0.0361	✗	0.56
2026-09-21	oos	0.06818	0.070033	+2.72%	0.06719	-1.45%	0.0159	✓	0.69
2026-09-20	oos	0.066145	0.066615	+0.71%	0.07096	+7.28%	0.0370	✓	0.66
2026-09-19	oos	0.06551	0.065982	+0.72%	0.071135	+8.59%	0.0499	✓	0.66
2026-09-18	oos	0.06518	0.065559	+0.58%	0.069215	+6.19%	0.0301	✓	0.62
2026-09-17	oos	0.06246	0.062542	+0.13%	0.06689	+7.09%	0.0103	✓	0.57
2026-09-16	oos	0.06142	0.061555	+0.22%	0.06365	+3.63%	0.0255	✗	0.57
2026-09-15	oos	0.0632	0.063237	+0.06%	0.068925	+9.06%	0.0333	✓	0.40
2026-09-14	oos	0.062645	0.062805	+0.26%	0.06818	+8.84%	0.0401	✓	0.41
2026-09-13	oos	0.06183	0.061997	+0.27%	0.066145	+6.98%	0.0419	✓	0.41
2026-09-12	oos	0.06403	0.064218	+0.29%	0.06551	+2.31%	0.0015	✓	0.43
2026-09-11	oos	0.064245	0.064559	+0.49%	0.06518	+1.46%	0.0110	✗	0.44
2026-09-10	oos	0.06059	0.060895	+0.50%	0.06246	+3.09%	0.0264	✓	0.40
2026-09-09	oos	0.06193	0.062392	+0.75%	0.06142	-0.82%	0.0049	✓	0.39
2026-09-08	oos	0.06767	0.068118	+0.66%	0.0632	-6.61%	0.0559	✗	0.51
2026-09-07	oos	0.06744	0.068104	+0.98%	0.062645	-7.11%	0.0775	✗	0.52
2026-09-06	oos	0.067405	0.068856	+2.15%	0.06183	-8.27%	0.0844	✗	0.52
2026-09-05	oos	0.068755	0.070284	+2.22%	0.06403	-6.87%	0.0758	✗	0.53
2026-09-04	oos	0.068655	0.070355	+2.48%	0.064245	-6.42%	0.0729	✗	0.57
2026-09-03	oos	0.06963	0.071762	+3.06%	0.06059	-12.98%	0.1359	✗	0.56
2026-09-02	oos	0.06727	0.067925	+0.97%	0.06193	-7.94%	0.0991	✗	0.53
2026-09-01	oos	0.067465	0.068107	+0.95%	0.06767	+0.30%	0.0138	✗	0.55
2026-08-31	oos	0.068375	0.069398	+1.50%	0.06744	-1.37%	0.0315	✗	0.43
2026-08-30	oos	0.06784	0.068535	+1.02%	0.067405	-0.64%	0.0348	✗	0.54
2026-08-29	oos	0.0706	0.071597	+1.41%	0.068755	-2.61%	0.0509	✗	0.52
2026-08-28	oos	0.07148	0.072494	+1.42%	0.068655	-3.95%	0.0666	✗	0.52
2026-08-27	oos	0.07326	0.075762	+3.42%	0.06963	-4.95%	0.0908	✗	0.52
2026-08-26	oos	0.072215	0.074568	+3.26%	0.06727	-6.85%	0.0920	✗	0.50
2026-08-25	oos	0.06901	0.070438	+2.07%	0.067465	-2.24%	0.0359	✗	0.50
2026-08-24	oos	0.072275	0.074668	+3.31%	0.068375	-5.40%	0.0855	✗	0.49
2026-08-23	oos	0.07345	0.075124	+2.28%	0.06784	-7.64%	0.1015	✗	0.54
2026-08-22	oos	0.07444	0.075756	+1.77%	0.0706	-5.16%	0.0788	✗	0.54
2026-08-21	oos	0.09093	0.093833	+3.19%	0.07148	-21.39%	0.2692	✗	0.46
2026-08-20	oos	0.084175	0.083474	-0.83%	0.07326	-12.97%	0.1663	✓	0.38
2026-08-19	oos	0.080745	0.07903	-2.12%	0.072215	-10.56%	0.1519	✓	0.47
2026-08-18	oos	0.078975	0.076974	-2.53%	0.06901	-12.62%	0.2071	✓	0.50
2026-08-17	oos	0.07742	0.075576	-2.38%	0.072275	-6.65%	0.1523	✓	0.53
2026-08-16	oos	0.077985	0.076202	-2.29%	0.07345	-5.82%	0.1545	✓	0.55
2026-08-15	oos	0.07977	0.077753	-2.53%	0.07444	-6.68%	0.1543	✓	0.55
2026-08-14	oos	0.07509	0.07377	-1.76%	0.09093	+21.09%	0.0867	✗	0.56
2026-08-13	oos	0.075375	0.074019	-1.80%	0.084175	+11.67%	0.0504	✗	0.56
2026-08-12	oos	0.07654	0.075085	-1.90%	0.080745	+5.49%	0.0137	✓	0.66
2026-08-11	oos	0.07666	0.07536	-1.70%	0.078975	+3.02%	0.0355	✗	0.63
2026-08-10	oos	0.07734	0.076049	-1.67%	0.07742	+0.10%	0.0115	✓	0.72
2026-08-09	oos	0.074055	0.073226	-1.12%	0.077985	+5.31%	0.0855	✗	0.71
2026-08-08	oos	0.077215	0.076069	-1.48%	0.07977	+3.31%	0.0685	✗	0.71
2026-08-07	oos	0.07789	0.076802	-1.40%	0.07509	-3.59%	0.0011	✓	0.72
2026-08-06	oos	0.08424	0.082358	-2.23%	0.075375	-10.52%	0.0785	✓	0.77
2026-08-05	oos	0.08051	0.079238	-1.58%	0.07654	-4.93%	0.0203	✓	0.77
2026-08-04	oos	0.07671	0.075945	-1.00%	0.07666	-0.07%	0.0153	✗	0.72
2026-08-03	oos	0.07648	0.075819	-0.86%	0.07734	+1.12%	0.0149	✗	0.72
2026-08-02	oos	0.07587	0.075299	-0.75%	0.074055	-2.39%	0.0311	✓	0.69
2026-08-01	oos	0.075195	0.074807	-0.52%	0.077215	+2.69%	0.0098	✗	0.65
2026-07-31	oos	0.07904	0.078194	-1.07%	0.07789	-1.45%	0.0249	✓	0.65
2026-07-30	oos	0.079515	0.078585	-1.17%	0.08424	+5.94%	0.0743	✗	0.68
2026-07-29	oos	0.080195	0.079177	-1.27%	0.08051	+0.39%	0.0095	✓	0.66
2026-07-28	oos	0.07921	0.07836	-1.07%	0.07671	-3.16%	0.0232	✓	0.61
2026-07-27	oos	0.079315	0.0785	-1.03%	0.07648	-3.57%	0.0239	✓	0.62
2026-07-26	oos	0.08704	0.085628	-1.62%	0.07587	-12.83%	0.1052	✓	0.55
2026-07-25	oos	0.08458	0.083315	-1.50%	0.075195	-11.10%	0.0900	✓	0.52
2026-07-24	oos	0.084415	0.0831	-1.56%	0.07904	-6.37%	0.0399	✓	0.51
2026-07-23	oos	0.07593	0.075142	-1.04%	0.079515	+4.72%	0.0595	✗	0.58
2026-07-22	oos	0.08425	0.082824	-1.69%	0.080195	-4.81%	0.0133	✓	0.56
2026-07-21	oos	0.08541	0.083883	-1.79%	0.07921	-7.26%	0.0336	✓	0.58
2026-07-20	oos	0.085835	0.084174	-1.93%	0.079315	-7.60%	0.0485	✓	0.47
2026-07-19	oos	0.09025	0.088256	-2.21%	0.08704	-3.56%	0.0191	✓	0.52
2026-07-18	oos	0.09212	0.089953	-2.35%	0.08458	-8.18%	0.0556	✓	0.77
2026-07-17	oos	0.09172	0.08961	-2.30%	0.084415	-7.96%	0.0621	✓	0.81
2026-07-16	oos	0.091335	0.089233	-2.30%	0.07593	-16.87%	0.1804	✓	0.95
2026-07-15	oos	0.08947	0.087267	-2.46%	0.08425	-5.83%	0.0496	✓	0.69
2026-07-14	oos	0.08738	0.085099	-2.61%	0.08541	-2.25%	0.0154	✓	0.82
2026-07-13	oos	0.094725	0.092018	-2.86%	0.085835	-9.39%	0.1176	✓	1.04
2026-07-12	oos	0.102185	0.099216	-2.91%	0.09025	-11.68%	0.1092	✓	0.99
2026-07-11	oos	0.098305	0.095643	-2.71%	0.09212	-6.29%	0.0544	✓	1.06
2026-07-10	oos	0.10396	0.101257	-2.60%	0.09172	-11.77%	0.0955	✓	0.94
2026-07-09	oos	0.11142	0.108334	-2.77%	0.091335	-18.03%	0.1800	✓	0.99
2026-07-08	oos	0.087055	0.084871	-2.51%	0.08947	+2.77%	0.0189	✓	0.87
2026-07-07	oos	0.08504	0.082879	-2.54%	0.08738	+2.75%	0.0314	✗	0.83
2026-07-06	oos	0.09485	0.092426	-2.56%	0.094725	-0.13%	0.0465	✗	0.80
2026-07-05	oos	0.09236	0.090124	-2.42%	0.102185	+10.64%	0.1234	✗	0.89
2026-07-04	oos	0.09202	0.089767	-2.45%	0.098305	+6.83%	0.0811	✗	0.90
2026-07-03	oos	0.09496	0.092549	-2.54%	0.10396	+9.48%	0.0938	✗	0.89
2026-07-02	oos	0.101225	0.098346	-2.84%	0.11142	+10.07%	0.0999	✗	0.92
2026-07-01	oos	0.13053	0.124813	-4.38%	0.087055	-33.31%	0.4021	✓	1.12
2026-06-30	oos	0.1002	0.096813	-3.38%	0.08504	-15.13%	0.2018	✓	0.91
2026-06-29	oos	0.081245	0.079427	-2.24%	0.09485	+16.75%	0.1095	✗	1.10
2026-06-28	oos	0.08065	0.078764	-2.34%	0.09236	+14.52%	0.1011	✗	0.87
2026-06-27	oos	0.074875	0.073615	-1.68%	0.09202	+22.90%	0.1777	✗	0.89
2026-06-26	oos	0.06701	0.066798	-0.32%	0.09496	+41.71%	0.3153	✗	0.89
2026-06-25	oos	0.07109	0.070464	-0.88%	0.101225	+42.39%	0.3359	✗	0.90
2026-06-24	oos	0.08342	0.081485	-2.32%	0.13053	+56.47%	0.4849	✗	0.81
2026-06-23	oos	0.09949	0.096512	-2.99%	0.1002	+0.71%	0.0846	✗	0.69
2026-06-22	oos	0.094245	0.091704	-2.70%	0.081245	-13.79%	0.0761	✓	0.74
2026-06-21	oos	0.09377	0.091219	-2.72%	0.08065	-13.99%	0.0780	✓	0.74
2026-06-20	oos	0.08845	0.08616	-2.59%	0.074875	-15.35%	0.0871	✓	0.77
2026-06-19	oos	0.097835	0.094642	-3.26%	0.06701	-31.51%	0.2995	✓	0.81
2026-06-18	oos	0.09533	0.092104	-3.38%	0.07109	-25.43%	0.2172	✓	0.81
2026-06-17	oos	0.077795	0.076258	-1.98%	0.08342	+7.23%	0.1441	✗	0.98
2026-06-16	oos	0.076135	0.074879	-1.65%	0.09949	+30.68%	0.3310	✗	1.01
2026-06-15	oos	0.078575	0.076686	-2.40%	0.094245	+19.94%	0.2421	✗	1.01
2026-06-14	oos	0.07155	0.071066	-0.68%	0.09377	+31.06%	0.3148	✗	0.98
2026-06-13	oos	0.0691	0.068948	-0.22%	0.08845	+28.00%	0.2522	✗	0.96
2026-06-12	oos	0.07492	0.073876	-1.39%	0.097835	+30.59%	0.2819	✗	1.01
2026-06-11	oos	0.07312	0.072383	-1.01%	0.09533	+30.37%	0.2863	✗	1.01
2026-06-10	oos	0.06286	0.063658	+1.27%	0.077795	+23.76%	0.1599	✓	0.85
2026-06-09	oos	0.06465	0.065363	+1.10%	0.076135	+17.76%	0.0999	✓	0.85
2026-06-08	oos	0.06474	0.065398	+1.02%	0.078575	+21.37%	0.1402	✓	0.87
2026-06-07	oos	0.07013	0.07012	-0.01%	0.07155	+2.02%	0.0120	✓	0.86
2026-06-06	oos	0.0664	0.067373	+1.46%	0.0691	+4.07%	0.0216	✗	0.82
2026-06-05	oos	0.06214	0.063599	+2.35%	0.07492	+20.57%	0.1306	✓	0.83
2026-06-04	oos	0.06303	0.064294	+2.01%	0.07312	+16.01%	0.1320	✓	0.88
2026-06-03	oos	0.07015	0.070574	+0.60%	0.06286	-10.39%	0.0798	✗	0.87
2026-06-02	oos	0.06498	0.065849	+1.34%	0.06465	-0.51%	0.0654	✓	1.08
2026-06-01	oos	0.07125	0.070592	-0.92%	0.06474	-9.14%	0.0418	✗	1.04
2026-05-31	oos	0.07135	0.070664	-0.96%	0.07013	-1.71%	0.1611	✗	1.12
2026-05-30	oos	0.076975	0.075549	-1.85%	0.0664	-13.74%	0.0839	✗	1.11
2026-05-29	oos	0.07635	0.075128	-1.60%	0.06214	-18.61%	0.0133	✓	1.10
2026-05-28	oos	0.06089	0.061764	+1.44%	0.06303	+3.51%	0.1837	✓	1.15
2026-05-27	oos	0.062215	0.063023	+1.30%	0.07015	+12.75%	0.2794	✓	1.16
2026-05-26	oos	0.062175	0.062917	+1.19%	0.06498	+4.51%	0.1880	✓	1.21
2026-05-25	oos	0.068755	0.068663	-0.13%	0.07125	+3.63%	0.1268	✗	1.12
2026-05-24	oos	0.0685	0.068484	-0.02%	0.07135	+4.16%	0.0918	✗	1.12
2026-05-23	oos	0.07205	0.071623	-0.59%	0.076975	+6.84%	0.1152	✗	1.13
2026-05-22	oos	0.0711	0.071073	-0.04%	0.07635	+7.38%	0.1029	✗	1.12
2026-05-21	oos	0.084	0.082153	-2.20%	0.06089	-27.51%	0.2531	✓	0.87
2026-05-20	oos	0.07665	0.075439	-1.58%	0.062215	-18.83%	0.1560	✓	0.88
2026-05-19	oos	0.07077	0.070225	-0.77%	0.062175	-12.14%	0.1113	✓	0.85
2026-05-18	oos	0.07149	0.070765	-1.01%	0.068755	-3.83%	0.0322	✓	0.85
2026-05-17	oos	0.07044	0.069656	-1.11%	0.0685	-2.75%	0.0119	✓	0.87
2026-05-16	oos	0.07579	0.074453	-1.76%	0.07205	-4.93%	0.0173	✓	0.82
2026-05-15	oos	0.07491	0.0738	-1.48%	0.0711	-5.09%	0.0031	✓	0.86
2026-05-14	oos	0.08692	0.085205	-1.97%	0.084	-3.36%	0.0131	✓	0.61
2026-05-13	oos	0.08883	0.087076	-1.97%	0.07665	-13.71%	0.1125	✓	0.65
2026-05-12	oos	0.11052	0.107685	-2.57%	0.07077	-35.97%	0.4033	✓	0.35
2026-05-11	oos	0.10473	0.102164	-2.45%	0.07149	-31.74%	0.3299	✓	0.45
2026-05-10	oos	0.09826	0.095877	-2.43%	0.07044	-28.31%	0.2775	✓	0.51
2026-05-09	oos	0.09627	0.093933	-2.43%	0.07579	-21.27%	0.1988	✓	0.49
2026-05-08	oos	0.09008	0.087923	-2.39%	0.07491	-16.84%	0.1533	✓	0.49
2026-05-07	oos	0.091955	0.089562	-2.60%	0.08692	-5.48%	0.0364	✓	0.48
2026-05-06	oos	0.088045	0.085907	-2.43%	0.08883	+0.89%	0.0497	✗	0.61
2026-05-05	oos	0.09052	0.088183	-2.58%	0.11052	+22.09%	0.2290	✗	0.61
2026-05-04	oos	0.09472	0.092165	-2.70%	0.10473	+10.57%	0.1130	✗	0.64
2026-05-03	oos	0.09896	0.096176	-2.81%	0.09826	-0.71%	0.0095	✓	0.68
2026-05-02	oos	0.11639	0.112689	-3.18%	0.09627	-17.29%	0.1722	✓	0.59
2026-05-01	oos	0.11018	0.106717	-3.14%	0.09008	-18.24%	0.1841	✓	0.59
2026-04-30	oos	0.11237	0.109254	-2.77%	0.091955	-18.17%	0.2029	✓	0.64
2026-04-29	oos	0.12989	0.126245	-2.81%	0.088045	-32.22%	0.4100	✓	0.69
2026-04-28	oos	0.13847	0.134515	-2.86%	0.09052	-34.63%	0.4545	✓	1.00
2026-04-27	oos	0.136965	0.13287	-2.99%	0.09472	-30.84%	0.3701	✓	1.00
2026-04-26	oos	0.13381	0.129883	-2.93%	0.09896	-26.04%	0.2705	✓	1.00
2026-04-25	oos	0.134675	0.130572	-3.05%	0.11639	-13.58%	0.1282	✓	1.00
2026-04-24	oos	0.122685	0.119148	-2.88%	0.11018	-10.19%	0.0882	✓	1.00
2026-04-23	oos	0.13582	0.131586	-3.12%	0.11237	-17.27%	0.1323	✓	1.00
2026-04-22	oos	0.11474	0.111437	-2.88%	0.12989	+13.20%	0.1851	✗	1.00
2026-04-21	oos	0.13065	0.125555	-3.90%	0.13847	+5.99%	0.0983	✗	1.00
2026-04-20	oos	0.11396	0.109415	-3.99%	0.136965	+20.19%	0.2050	✗	1.00
2026-04-19	oos	0.0862	0.083941	-2.62%	0.13381	+55.23%	0.4027	✗	1.00
2026-04-18	oos	0.09122	0.088601	-2.87%	0.134675	+47.64%	0.3938	✗	1.00
2026-04-17	oos	0.12325	0.117349	-4.79%	0.122685	-0.46%	0.0398	✓	1.00
2026-04-16	oos	0.16615	0.147481	-11.24%	0.13582	-18.25%	0.1230	✓	1.00
2026-04-15	oos	0.085535	0.082583	-3.45%	0.11474	+34.14%	0.2848	✗	1.00
2026-04-14	oos	0.075145	0.073105	-2.71%	0.13065	+73.86%	0.5518	✗	1.00
2026-04-13	oos	0.0657	0.064207	-2.27%	0.11396	+73.46%	0.5549	✗	1.00
2026-04-12	oos	0.059505	0.058167	-2.25%	0.0862	+44.86%	0.3509	✗	1.00
2026-04-11	oos	0.054685	0.053456	-2.25%	0.09122	+66.81%	0.4988	✗	1.00
2026-04-10	oos	0.053855	0.052567	-2.39%	0.12325	+128.86%	0.7975	✗	1.00
2026-04-09	oos	0.05359	0.052242	-2.52%	0.16615	+210.04%	1.1112	✗	1.00
2026-04-08	oos	0.06194	0.060345	-2.58%	0.085535	+38.09%	0.2974	✗	1.00