BASED

Based · Ethereum · lstm_s4

token id: #838
symbol: BASED
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0x4f2b33840227ddd0e28da8d4185d6fa07adfed87
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-03-30
predictions: 591

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +1d

assessed

196

of 197 predictions shown

direction hit

52.6%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0599

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0014

actual -0.0012

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.05086	0.050921	+0.12%	–	pending	–	–	0.81
2026-10-20	oos	0.050125	0.050208	+0.17%	0.05086	+1.47%	0.0154	✓	0.86
2026-10-19	oos	0.047365	0.047458	+0.20%	0.050125	+5.83%	0.0435	✓	0.84
2026-10-18	oos	0.048835	0.048955	+0.25%	0.047365	-3.01%	0.0313	✗	0.83
2026-10-17	oos	0.05305	0.053148	+0.19%	0.048835	-7.95%	0.0910	✗	0.83
2026-10-16	oos	0.056	0.056052	+0.09%	0.05305	-5.27%	0.0538	✗	0.83
2026-10-15	oos	0.0446	0.04481	+0.47%	0.056	+25.56%	0.2298	✓	0.90
2026-10-14	oos	0.043815	0.044057	+0.55%	0.0446	+1.79%	0.0061	✓	0.90
2026-10-13	oos	0.047865	0.048053	+0.39%	0.043815	-8.46%	0.0767	✗	0.84
2026-10-12	oos	0.05471	0.054898	+0.34%	0.047865	-12.51%	0.1517	✗	0.89
2026-10-11	oos	0.066235	0.066382	+0.22%	0.05471	-17.40%	0.1783	✗	0.64
2026-10-10	oos	0.068045	0.068195	+0.22%	0.066235	-2.66%	0.0355	✗	0.69
2026-10-09	oos	0.068525	0.068696	+0.25%	0.068045	-0.70%	0.0125	✗	0.68
2026-10-08	oos	0.065965	0.066189	+0.34%	0.068525	+3.88%	0.0276	✓	0.69
2026-10-07	oos	0.06749	0.067701	+0.31%	0.065965	-2.26%	0.0133	✗	0.66
2026-10-06	oos	0.06713	0.067336	+0.31%	0.06749	+0.54%	0.0228	✓	0.77
2026-10-05	oos	0.06217	0.062338	+0.27%	0.06713	+7.98%	0.0759	✓	0.75
2026-10-04	oos	0.062415	0.062589	+0.28%	0.06217	-0.39%	0.0003	✓	0.79
2026-10-03	oos	0.06187	0.062035	+0.27%	0.062415	+0.88%	0.0103	✗	0.80
2026-10-02	oos	0.06284	0.06304	+0.32%	0.06187	-1.54%	0.0210	✗	0.80
2026-10-01	oos	0.065225	0.065431	+0.32%	0.06284	-3.66%	0.0372	✗	0.79
2026-09-30	oos	0.06616	0.066368	+0.31%	0.065225	-1.41%	0.0292	✗	0.77
2026-09-29	oos	0.0669	0.067162	+0.39%	0.06616	-1.11%	0.0144	✗	0.61
2026-09-28	oos	0.06719	0.067443	+0.38%	0.0669	-0.43%	0.0097	✗	0.75
2026-09-27	oos	0.07096	0.071206	+0.35%	0.06719	-5.31%	0.0516	✗	0.54
2026-09-26	oos	0.071135	0.071356	+0.31%	0.07096	-0.25%	0.0059	✗	0.54
2026-09-25	oos	0.069215	0.069418	+0.29%	0.071135	+2.77%	0.0225	✓	0.51
2026-09-24	oos	0.06689	0.067108	+0.33%	0.069215	+3.48%	0.0327	✓	0.51
2026-09-23	oos	0.06365	0.063882	+0.36%	0.06689	+5.09%	0.0460	✓	0.51
2026-09-22	oos	0.068925	0.069151	+0.33%	0.06365	-7.65%	0.0709	✗	0.56
2026-09-21	oos	0.06818	0.068365	+0.27%	0.068925	+1.09%	0.0113	✓	0.69
2026-09-20	oos	0.066145	0.066349	+0.31%	0.06818	+3.08%	0.0153	✗	0.66
2026-09-19	oos	0.06551	0.065703	+0.29%	0.066145	+0.97%	0.0073	✓	0.66
2026-09-18	oos	0.06518	0.065342	+0.25%	0.06551	+0.51%	0.0002	✓	0.62
2026-09-17	oos	0.06246	0.062599	+0.22%	0.06518	+4.35%	0.0076	✓	0.57
2026-09-16	oos	0.06142	0.061585	+0.27%	0.06246	+1.69%	0.0126	✓	0.57
2026-09-15	oos	0.0632	0.063334	+0.21%	0.06142	-2.82%	0.0337	✗	0.40
2026-09-14	oos	0.062645	0.062779	+0.21%	0.0632	+0.89%	0.0205	✓	0.41
2026-09-13	oos	0.06183	0.061996	+0.27%	0.062645	+1.32%	0.0030	✓	0.41
2026-09-12	oos	0.06403	0.064191	+0.25%	0.06183	-3.44%	0.0349	✗	0.43
2026-09-11	oos	0.064245	0.064458	+0.33%	0.06403	-0.33%	0.0070	✗	0.44
2026-09-10	oos	0.06059	0.060806	+0.36%	0.064245	+6.03%	0.0515	✓	0.40
2026-09-09	oos	0.06193	0.062164	+0.38%	0.06059	-2.16%	0.0168	✗	0.39
2026-09-08	oos	0.06767	0.06788	+0.31%	0.06193	-8.48%	0.0907	✗	0.51
2026-09-07	oos	0.06744	0.067693	+0.38%	0.06767	+0.34%	0.0039	✓	0.52
2026-09-06	oos	0.067405	0.067725	+0.48%	0.06744	+0.05%	0.0038	✓	0.52
2026-09-05	oos	0.068755	0.069084	+0.48%	0.067405	-1.96%	0.0280	✗	0.53
2026-09-04	oos	0.068655	0.069008	+0.51%	0.068755	+0.15%	0.0048	✓	0.57
2026-09-03	oos	0.06963	0.069915	+0.41%	0.068655	-1.40%	0.0072	✗	0.56
2026-09-02	oos	0.06727	0.067518	+0.37%	0.06963	+3.51%	0.0043	✓	0.53
2026-09-01	oos	0.067465	0.067693	+0.34%	0.06727	-0.29%	0.0056	✗	0.55
2026-08-31	oos	0.068375	0.068649	+0.40%	0.067465	-1.33%	0.0110	✗	0.43
2026-08-30	oos	0.06784	0.068064	+0.33%	0.068375	+0.79%	0.0016	✓	0.54
2026-08-29	oos	0.0706	0.07082	+0.31%	0.06784	-3.91%	0.0392	✗	0.52
2026-08-28	oos	0.07148	0.071716	+0.33%	0.0706	-1.23%	0.0183	✗	0.52
2026-08-27	oos	0.07326	0.073372	+0.15%	0.07148	-2.43%	0.0101	✗	0.52
2026-08-26	oos	0.072215	0.072387	+0.24%	0.07326	+1.45%	0.0041	✓	0.50
2026-08-25	oos	0.06901	0.069212	+0.29%	0.072215	+4.64%	0.0393	✓	0.50
2026-08-24	oos	0.072275	0.072317	+0.06%	0.06901	-4.52%	0.0440	✗	0.49
2026-08-23	oos	0.07345	0.073586	+0.19%	0.072275	-1.60%	0.0266	✗	0.54
2026-08-22	oos	0.07444	0.074586	+0.20%	0.07345	-1.33%	0.0201	✗	0.54
2026-08-21	oos	0.09093	0.090794	-0.15%	0.07444	-18.13%	0.1911	✓	0.46
2026-08-20	oos	0.084175	0.084148	-0.03%	0.09093	+8.02%	0.0510	✗	0.38
2026-08-19	oos	0.080745	0.080477	-0.33%	0.084175	+4.25%	0.0204	✗	0.47
2026-08-18	oos	0.078975	0.078616	-0.45%	0.080745	+2.24%	0.0081	✓	0.50
2026-08-17	oos	0.07742	0.077119	-0.39%	0.078975	+2.01%	0.0221	✗	0.53
2026-08-16	oos	0.077985	0.077731	-0.33%	0.07742	-0.72%	0.0183	✓	0.55
2026-08-15	oos	0.07977	0.07942	-0.44%	0.077985	-2.24%	0.0166	✓	0.55
2026-08-14	oos	0.07509	0.074958	-0.18%	0.07977	+6.23%	0.0618	✗	0.56
2026-08-13	oos	0.075375	0.075229	-0.19%	0.07509	-0.38%	0.0021	✗	0.56
2026-08-12	oos	0.07654	0.07637	-0.22%	0.075375	-1.52%	0.0133	✓	0.66
2026-08-11	oos	0.07666	0.076572	-0.11%	0.07654	-0.16%	0.0008	✓	0.63
2026-08-10	oos	0.07734	0.077249	-0.12%	0.07666	-0.88%	0.0034	✓	0.72
2026-08-09	oos	0.074055	0.074076	+0.03%	0.07734	+4.44%	0.0535	✓	0.71
2026-08-08	oos	0.077215	0.077146	-0.09%	0.074055	-4.09%	0.0402	✓	0.71
2026-08-07	oos	0.07789	0.077859	-0.04%	0.077215	-0.87%	0.0085	✓	0.72
2026-08-06	oos	0.08424	0.083925	-0.37%	0.07789	-7.54%	0.0821	✓	0.77
2026-08-05	oos	0.08051	0.080409	-0.13%	0.08424	+4.63%	0.0506	✗	0.77
2026-08-04	oos	0.07671	0.076735	+0.03%	0.08051	+4.95%	0.0418	✓	0.72
2026-08-03	oos	0.07648	0.076536	+0.07%	0.07671	+0.30%	0.0043	✗	0.72
2026-08-02	oos	0.07587	0.075938	+0.09%	0.07648	+0.80%	0.0075	✓	0.69
2026-08-01	oos	0.075195	0.075307	+0.15%	0.07587	+0.90%	0.0001	✓	0.65
2026-07-31	oos	0.07904	0.079017	-0.03%	0.075195	-4.86%	0.0489	✓	0.65
2026-07-30	oos	0.079515	0.079463	-0.06%	0.07904	-0.60%	0.0148	✗	0.68
2026-07-29	oos	0.080195	0.080118	-0.10%	0.079515	-0.85%	0.0160	✓	0.66
2026-07-28	oos	0.07921	0.079209	-0.00%	0.080195	+1.24%	0.0119	✗	0.61
2026-07-27	oos	0.079315	0.079329	+0.02%	0.07921	-0.13%	0.0030	✗	0.62
2026-07-26	oos	0.08704	0.086874	-0.19%	0.079315	-8.88%	0.0770	✓	0.55
2026-07-25	oos	0.08458	0.08448	-0.12%	0.08704	+2.91%	0.0215	✗	0.52
2026-07-24	oos	0.084415	0.084291	-0.15%	0.08458	+0.20%	0.0017	✗	0.51
2026-07-23	oos	0.07593	0.075944	+0.02%	0.084415	+11.17%	0.1144	✓	0.58
2026-07-22	oos	0.08425	0.084076	-0.21%	0.07593	-9.88%	0.0930	✓	0.56
2026-07-21	oos	0.08541	0.085222	-0.22%	0.08425	-1.36%	0.0077	✓	0.58
2026-07-20	oos	0.085835	0.085614	-0.26%	0.08541	-0.50%	0.0116	✓	0.47
2026-07-19	oos	0.09025	0.089925	-0.36%	0.085835	-4.89%	0.0508	✓	0.52
2026-07-18	oos	0.09212	0.091747	-0.40%	0.09025	-2.03%	0.0151	✓	0.77
2026-07-17	oos	0.09172	0.091403	-0.35%	0.09212	+0.44%	0.0035	✓	0.81
2026-07-16	oos	0.091335	0.091037	-0.33%	0.09172	+0.42%	0.0056	✗	0.95
2026-07-15	oos	0.08947	0.089109	-0.40%	0.091335	+2.08%	0.0348	✗	0.69
2026-07-14	oos	0.08738	0.086975	-0.46%	0.08947	+2.39%	0.0317	✗	0.82
2026-07-13	oos	0.094725	0.094183	-0.57%	0.08738	-7.75%	0.1194	✓	1.04
2026-07-12	oos	0.102185	0.101585	-0.59%	0.094725	-7.30%	0.0468	✓	0.99
2026-07-11	oos	0.098305	0.097844	-0.47%	0.102185	+3.95%	0.0440	✗	1.06
2026-07-10	oos	0.10396	0.103518	-0.43%	0.098305	-5.44%	0.0464	✓	0.94
2026-07-09	oos	0.11142	0.110819	-0.54%	0.10396	-6.70%	0.0787	✓	0.99
2026-07-08	oos	0.087055	0.08676	-0.34%	0.11142	+27.99%	0.2372	✗	0.87
2026-07-07	oos	0.08504	0.084732	-0.36%	0.087055	+2.37%	0.0414	✗	0.83
2026-07-06	oos	0.09485	0.094469	-0.40%	0.08504	-10.34%	0.0967	✓	0.80
2026-07-05	oos	0.09236	0.092043	-0.34%	0.09485	+2.70%	0.0242	✗	0.89
2026-07-04	oos	0.09202	0.091666	-0.38%	0.09236	+0.37%	0.0005	✓	0.90
2026-07-03	oos	0.09496	0.094498	-0.49%	0.09202	-3.10%	0.0346	✓	0.89
2026-07-02	oos	0.101225	0.100442	-0.77%	0.09496	-6.19%	0.0715	✓	0.92
2026-07-01	oos	0.13053	0.127785	-2.10%	0.101225	-22.45%	0.2611	✓	1.12
2026-06-30	oos	0.1002	0.099111	-1.09%	0.13053	+30.27%	0.2532	✗	0.91
2026-06-29	oos	0.081245	0.081039	-0.25%	0.1002	+23.33%	0.2426	✗	1.10
2026-06-28	oos	0.08065	0.08039	-0.32%	0.081245	+0.74%	0.0006	✓	0.87
2026-06-27	oos	0.074875	0.074849	-0.04%	0.08065	+7.71%	0.0815	✗	0.89
2026-06-26	oos	0.06701	0.067233	+0.33%	0.074875	+11.74%	0.1087	✓	0.89
2026-06-25	oos	0.07109	0.071237	+0.21%	0.06701	-5.74%	0.0657	✗	0.90
2026-06-24	oos	0.08342	0.083193	-0.27%	0.07109	-14.78%	0.1399	✓	0.81
2026-06-23	oos	0.09949	0.098801	-0.69%	0.08342	-16.15%	0.1506	✓	0.69
2026-06-22	oos	0.094245	0.093799	-0.47%	0.09949	+5.57%	0.0741	✗	0.74
2026-06-21	oos	0.09377	0.093302	-0.50%	0.094245	+0.51%	0.0018	✓	0.74
2026-06-20	oos	0.08845	0.088058	-0.44%	0.09377	+6.01%	0.0748	✗	0.77
2026-06-19	oos	0.097835	0.096981	-0.87%	0.08845	-9.59%	0.1016	✓	0.81
2026-06-18	oos	0.09533	0.094484	-0.89%	0.097835	+2.63%	0.0272	✗	0.81
2026-06-17	oos	0.077795	0.077611	-0.24%	0.09533	+22.54%	0.2299	✗	0.98
2026-06-16	oos	0.076135	0.076006	-0.17%	0.077795	+2.18%	0.0414	✗	1.01
2026-06-15	oos	0.078575	0.078185	-0.50%	0.076135	-3.11%	0.0165	✓	1.01
2026-06-14	oos	0.07155	0.071602	+0.07%	0.078575	+9.82%	0.0845	✓	0.98
2026-06-13	oos	0.0691	0.069236	+0.20%	0.07155	+3.55%	0.0140	✓	0.96
2026-06-12	oos	0.07492	0.074826	-0.13%	0.0691	-7.77%	0.0936	✓	1.01
2026-06-11	oos	0.07312	0.073082	-0.05%	0.07492	+2.46%	0.0252	✗	1.01
2026-06-10	oos	0.06286	0.063162	+0.48%	0.07312	+16.32%	0.1175	✓	0.85
2026-06-09	oos	0.06465	0.06494	+0.45%	0.06286	-2.77%	0.0292	✗	0.85
2026-06-08	oos	0.06474	0.065025	+0.44%	0.06465	-0.14%	0.0135	✓	0.87
2026-06-07	oos	0.07013	0.07028	+0.21%	0.06474	-7.69%	0.0788	✗	0.86
2026-06-06	oos	0.0664	0.066747	+0.52%	0.07013	+5.62%	0.0170	✓	0.82
2026-06-05	oos	0.06214	0.06257	+0.69%	0.0664	+6.86%	0.0619	✓	0.83
2026-06-04	oos	0.06303	0.063445	+0.66%	0.06214	-1.41%	0.0184	✓	0.88
2026-06-03	oos	0.07015	0.070441	+0.42%	0.06303	-10.15%	0.1080	✗	0.87
2026-06-02	oos	0.06498	0.065346	+0.56%	0.07015	+7.96%	0.1142	✓	1.08
2026-06-01	oos	0.07125	0.071288	+0.05%	0.06498	-8.80%	0.0222	✗	1.04
2026-05-31	oos	0.07135	0.071387	+0.05%	0.07125	-0.14%	0.0331	✓	1.12
2026-05-30	oos	0.076975	0.076779	-0.25%	0.07135	-7.31%	0.0704	✓	1.11
2026-05-29	oos	0.07635	0.076194	-0.20%	0.076975	+0.82%	0.0041	✗	1.10
2026-05-28	oos	0.06089	0.061227	+0.55%	0.07635	+25.39%	0.2230	✓	1.15
2026-05-27	oos	0.062215	0.062536	+0.52%	0.06089	-2.13%	0.0141	✗	1.16
2026-05-26	oos	0.062175	0.062478	+0.49%	0.062215	+0.06%	0.0201	✓	1.21
2026-05-25	oos	0.068755	0.068887	+0.19%	0.062175	-9.57%	0.0816	✗	1.12
2026-05-24	oos	0.0685	0.068663	+0.24%	0.068755	+0.37%	0.0026	✗	1.12
2026-05-23	oos	0.07205	0.072153	+0.14%	0.0685	-4.93%	0.0567	✗	1.13
2026-05-22	oos	0.0711	0.071314	+0.30%	0.07205	+1.34%	0.0075	✗	1.12
2026-05-21	oos	0.084	0.083723	-0.33%	0.0711	-15.36%	0.1395	✓	0.87
2026-05-20	oos	0.07665	0.076547	-0.13%	0.084	+9.59%	0.0921	✗	0.88
2026-05-19	oos	0.07077	0.070821	+0.07%	0.07665	+8.31%	0.0713	✓	0.85
2026-05-18	oos	0.07149	0.071514	+0.03%	0.07077	-1.01%	0.0085	✗	0.85
2026-05-17	oos	0.07044	0.070449	+0.01%	0.07149	+1.49%	0.0199	✓	0.87
2026-05-16	oos	0.07579	0.075688	-0.13%	0.07044	-7.06%	0.0645	✓	0.82
2026-05-15	oos	0.07491	0.074933	+0.03%	0.07579	+1.17%	0.0218	✓	0.86
2026-05-14	oos	0.08692	0.086802	-0.14%	0.07491	-13.82%	0.1318	✓	0.61
2026-05-13	oos	0.08883	0.088722	-0.12%	0.08692	-2.15%	0.0350	✓	0.65
2026-05-12	oos	0.11052	0.110038	-0.44%	0.08883	-19.63%	0.2089	✓	0.35
2026-05-11	oos	0.10473	0.104308	-0.40%	0.11052	+5.53%	0.0647	✗	0.45
2026-05-10	oos	0.09826	0.097853	-0.41%	0.10473	+6.58%	0.0709	✗	0.51
2026-05-09	oos	0.09627	0.095923	-0.36%	0.09826	+2.07%	0.0147	✗	0.49
2026-05-08	oos	0.09008	0.08976	-0.36%	0.09627	+6.87%	0.0672	✗	0.49
2026-05-07	oos	0.091955	0.091549	-0.44%	0.09008	-2.04%	0.0173	✓	0.48
2026-05-06	oos	0.088045	0.087727	-0.36%	0.091955	+4.44%	0.0578	✗	0.61
2026-05-05	oos	0.09052	0.090167	-0.39%	0.088045	-2.73%	0.0278	✓	0.61
2026-05-04	oos	0.09472	0.094326	-0.42%	0.09052	-4.43%	0.0496	✓	0.64
2026-05-03	oos	0.09896	0.098507	-0.46%	0.09472	-4.28%	0.0504	✓	0.68
2026-05-02	oos	0.11639	0.115603	-0.68%	0.09896	-14.98%	0.1545	✓	0.59
2026-05-01	oos	0.11018	0.109482	-0.63%	0.11639	+5.64%	0.0578	✗	0.59
2026-04-30	oos	0.11237	0.111897	-0.42%	0.11018	-1.95%	0.0316	✓	0.64
2026-04-29	oos	0.12989	0.129264	-0.48%	0.11237	-13.49%	0.1450	✓	0.69
2026-04-28	oos	0.13847	0.137709	-0.55%	0.12989	-6.20%	0.0510	✓	1.00
2026-04-27	oos	0.136965	0.136066	-0.66%	0.13847	+1.10%	0.0311	✗	1.00
2026-04-26	oos	0.13381	0.13301	-0.60%	0.136965	+2.36%	0.0461	✗	1.00
2026-04-25	oos	0.134675	0.133768	-0.67%	0.13381	-0.64%	0.0128	✓	1.00
2026-04-24	oos	0.122685	0.121956	-0.59%	0.134675	+9.77%	0.0968	✗	1.00
2026-04-23	oos	0.13582	0.134727	-0.81%	0.122685	-9.67%	0.0831	✓	1.00
2026-04-22	oos	0.11474	0.113941	-0.70%	0.13582	+18.37%	0.1747	✗	1.00
2026-04-21	oos	0.13065	0.128647	-1.53%	0.11474	-12.18%	0.1385	✓	1.00
2026-04-20	oos	0.11396	0.112179	-1.56%	0.13065	+14.65%	0.1461	✗	1.00
2026-04-19	oos	0.0862	0.085765	-0.50%	0.11396	+32.20%	0.2570	✗	1.00
2026-04-18	oos	0.09122	0.0905	-0.79%	0.0862	-5.50%	0.0231	✓	1.00
2026-04-17	oos	0.12325	0.120267	-2.42%	0.09122	-25.99%	0.2586	✓	1.00
2026-04-16	oos	0.16615	0.152448	-8.25%	0.12325	-25.82%	0.2380	✓	1.00
2026-04-15	oos	0.085535	0.084637	-1.05%	0.16615	+94.25%	0.6702	✗	1.00
2026-04-14	oos	0.075145	0.074703	-0.59%	0.085535	+13.83%	0.1266	✗	1.00
2026-04-13	oos	0.0657	0.065429	-0.41%	0.075145	+14.38%	0.1420	✗	1.00
2026-04-12	oos	0.059505	0.059312	-0.33%	0.0657	+10.41%	0.0514	✗	1.00
2026-04-11	oos	0.054685	0.054506	-0.33%	0.059505	+8.81%	0.1202	✗	1.00
2026-04-10	oos	0.053855	0.053653	-0.37%	0.054685	+1.54%	0.0178	✗	1.00
2026-04-09	oos	0.05359	0.053374	-0.40%	0.053855	+0.49%	0.0076	✓	1.00
2026-04-08	oos	0.06194	0.061671	-0.44%	0.05359	-13.48%	0.1504	✓	1.00