SWM
Swarm · · lstm_s3
- token id
- #257
- symbol
- SWM
- variant
- –
- chain
- address
- cohort
- datapoint (mid-window listing)
- first bar
- 2026-08-19
- predictions
- 165
Track record at +1d
assessed
54
of 55 predictions shown
direction hit
48.1%
alpha space; 50% is a coin flip
MAE (alpha)
0.0736
mean absolute log-return error
mean pred / actual
-0.0055
actual +0.0042
History
| as of | split | anchor px | pred px | pred Δ | actual px | actual Δ | alpha err | hit | β90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | oos | 0.09181 | 0.091439 | -0.40% | – | pending | – | – | -1.57 |
| 2026-10-20 | oos | 0.091445 | 0.09108 | -0.40% | 0.09181 | +0.40% | 0.0034 | ✓ | -1.56 |
| 2026-10-19 | oos | 0.09194 | 0.091552 | -0.42% | 0.091445 | -0.54% | 0.0199 | ✗ | -1.57 |
| 2026-10-18 | oos | 0.093595 | 0.093183 | -0.44% | 0.09194 | -1.77% | 0.0167 | ✓ | -1.58 |
| 2026-10-17 | oos | 0.09361 | 0.093186 | -0.45% | 0.093595 | -0.02% | 0.0165 | ✗ | -1.58 |
| 2026-10-16 | oos | 0.09504 | 0.094596 | -0.47% | 0.09361 | -1.50% | 0.0128 | ✓ | -1.58 |
| 2026-10-15 | oos | 0.08869 | 0.088337 | -0.40% | 0.09504 | +7.16% | 0.0613 | ✗ | -1.55 |
| 2026-10-14 | oos | 0.089875 | 0.089502 | -0.41% | 0.08869 | -1.32% | 0.0015 | ✓ | -1.55 |
| 2026-10-13 | oos | 0.10361 | 0.103079 | -0.51% | 0.089875 | -13.26% | 0.1686 | ✓ | -1.69 |
| 2026-10-12 | oos | 0.100975 | 0.100456 | -0.51% | 0.10361 | +2.61% | 0.0593 | ✗ | -1.72 |
| 2026-10-11 | oos | 0.10023 | 0.099778 | -0.45% | 0.100975 | +0.74% | 0.0290 | ✓ | -1.75 |
| 2026-10-10 | oos | 0.100065 | 0.099602 | -0.46% | 0.10023 | +0.16% | 0.0224 | ✗ | -1.75 |
| 2026-10-09 | oos | 0.09889 | 0.098455 | -0.44% | 0.100065 | +1.19% | 0.0240 | ✗ | -1.75 |
| 2026-10-08 | oos | 0.099015 | 0.098578 | -0.44% | 0.09889 | -0.13% | 0.0214 | ✗ | -1.76 |
| 2026-10-07 | oos | 0.096365 | 0.096013 | -0.36% | 0.099015 | +2.75% | 0.0029 | ✓ | -1.76 |
| 2026-10-06 | oos | 0.098365 | 0.098047 | -0.32% | 0.096365 | -2.03% | 0.0665 | ✓ | -1.83 |
| 2026-10-05 | oos | 0.084465 | 0.084304 | -0.19% | 0.098365 | +16.46% | 0.1499 | ✗ | -1.78 |
| 2026-10-04 | oos | 0.092855 | 0.092644 | -0.23% | 0.084465 | -9.04% | 0.1086 | ✓ | -1.84 |
| 2026-10-03 | oos | 0.090795 | 0.090594 | -0.22% | 0.092855 | +2.27% | 0.0637 | ✗ | -1.89 |
| 2026-10-02 | oos | 0.09368 | 0.093457 | -0.24% | 0.090795 | -3.08% | 0.0236 | ✓ | -1.89 |
| 2026-10-01 | oos | 0.095145 | 0.094911 | -0.25% | 0.09368 | -1.54% | 0.0208 | ✓ | -1.90 |
| 2026-09-30 | oos | 0.10818 | 0.107817 | -0.34% | 0.095145 | -12.05% | 0.0965 | ✓ | -1.86 |
| 2026-09-29 | oos | 0.12674 | 0.12613 | -0.48% | 0.10818 | -14.64% | 0.1554 | ✓ | -1.89 |
| 2026-09-28 | oos | 0.123535 | 0.122957 | -0.47% | 0.12674 | +2.59% | 0.0344 | ✗ | -1.89 |
| 2026-09-27 | oos | 0.15819 | 0.156925 | -0.80% | 0.123535 | -21.91% | 0.2642 | ✓ | -2.09 |
| 2026-09-26 | oos | 0.127905 | 0.127217 | -0.54% | 0.15819 | +23.68% | 0.2190 | ✗ | -2.04 |
| 2026-09-25 | oos | 0.10542 | 0.105035 | -0.37% | 0.127905 | +21.33% | 0.2048 | ✗ | -2.03 |
| 2026-09-24 | oos | 0.10401 | 0.103629 | -0.37% | 0.10542 | +1.36% | 0.0101 | ✗ | -2.02 |
| 2026-09-23 | oos | 0.10388 | 0.103481 | -0.38% | 0.10401 | +0.13% | 0.0053 | ✗ | -2.02 |
| 2026-09-22 | oos | 0.094815 | 0.094552 | -0.28% | 0.10388 | +9.56% | 0.0526 | ✗ | -1.94 |
| 2026-09-21 | oos | 0.10284 | 0.102487 | -0.34% | 0.094815 | -7.80% | 0.0869 | ✓ | -1.98 |
| 2026-09-20 | oos | 0.11312 | 0.112421 | -0.62% | 0.10284 | -9.09% | 0.0492 | ✗ | -2.13 |
| 2026-09-19 | oos | 0.11891 | 0.11808 | -0.70% | 0.11312 | -4.87% | 0.0449 | ✓ | -2.15 |
| 2026-09-18 | oos | 0.1196 | 0.118712 | -0.74% | 0.11891 | -0.58% | 0.0112 | ✗ | -2.15 |
| 2026-09-17 | oos | 0.12931 | 0.128075 | -0.95% | 0.1196 | -7.51% | 0.1261 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-16 | oos | 0.14044 | 0.138933 | -1.07% | 0.12931 | -7.93% | 0.0745 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-15 | oos | 0.129815 | 0.128468 | -1.04% | 0.14044 | +8.18% | 0.0817 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-14 | oos | 0.15573 | 0.153894 | -1.18% | 0.129815 | -16.64% | 0.1364 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-13 | oos | 0.156615 | 0.154703 | -1.22% | 0.15573 | -0.57% | 0.0111 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-12 | oos | 0.18555 | 0.182974 | -1.39% | 0.156615 | -15.59% | 0.1495 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-11 | oos | 0.196105 | 0.193123 | -1.52% | 0.18555 | -5.38% | 0.0407 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-10 | oos | 0.18591 | 0.182928 | -1.60% | 0.196105 | +5.48% | 0.0608 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-09 | oos | 0.1367 | 0.134945 | -1.28% | 0.18591 | +36.00% | 0.3430 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-08 | oos | 0.13717 | 0.135331 | -1.34% | 0.1367 | -0.34% | 0.0122 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-07 | oos | 0.117485 | 0.116163 | -1.13% | 0.13717 | +16.76% | 0.1744 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-06 | oos | 0.102915 | 0.102147 | -0.75% | 0.117485 | +14.16% | 0.1555 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-05 | oos | 0.07698 | 0.076691 | -0.38% | 0.102915 | +33.69% | 0.2878 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-04 | oos | 0.07564 | 0.075388 | -0.33% | 0.07698 | +1.77% | 0.0189 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-03 | oos | 0.07329 | 0.073165 | -0.17% | 0.07564 | +3.21% | 0.0530 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-02 | oos | 0.07012 | 0.069938 | -0.26% | 0.07329 | +4.52% | 0.0031 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-01 | oos | 0.06978 | 0.069666 | -0.16% | 0.07012 | +0.49% | 0.0077 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-08-31 | oos | 0.06946 | 0.069456 | -0.01% | 0.06978 | +0.46% | 0.0196 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-08-30 | oos | 0.07144 | 0.071435 | -0.01% | 0.06946 | -2.77% | 0.0395 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-08-29 | oos | 0.07166 | 0.071725 | +0.09% | 0.07144 | -0.31% | 0.0033 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-08-28 | oos | 0.07463 | 0.074699 | +0.09% | 0.07166 | -3.98% | 0.0466 | ✗ | 1.00 |