SWM

Swarm · · lstm_s2

token id: #257
symbol: SWM
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-19
predictions: 168

Track record at +7d

assessed

49

of 56 predictions shown

direction hit

55.1%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.2606

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0247

actual +0.0251

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	0.090935	0.089998	-1.03%	–	pending	–	–	-1.55
2026-10-21	oos	0.090825	0.090013	-0.89%	–	pending	–	–	-1.55
2026-10-20	oos	0.091445	0.090595	-0.93%	–	pending	–	–	-1.56
2026-10-19	oos	0.09194	0.091046	-0.97%	–	pending	–	–	-1.57
2026-10-18	oos	0.093595	0.092614	-1.05%	–	pending	–	–	-1.58
2026-10-17	oos	0.09361	0.09255	-1.13%	–	pending	–	–	-1.58
2026-10-16	oos	0.09504	0.093872	-1.23%	–	pending	–	–	-1.58
2026-10-15	oos	0.08869	0.087802	-1.00%	0.090935	+2.53%	0.0742	✗	-1.55
2026-10-14	oos	0.089875	0.088938	-1.04%	0.090825	+1.06%	0.0672	✗	-1.55
2026-10-13	oos	0.10361	0.102046	-1.51%	0.091445	-11.74%	0.1130	✓	-1.69
2026-10-12	oos	0.100975	0.099492	-1.47%	0.09194	-8.95%	0.0769	✓	-1.72
2026-10-11	oos	0.10023	0.098886	-1.34%	0.093595	-6.62%	0.0902	✓	-1.75
2026-10-10	oos	0.100065	0.098673	-1.39%	0.09361	-6.45%	0.0853	✓	-1.75
2026-10-09	oos	0.09889	0.097556	-1.35%	0.09504	-3.89%	0.0485	✓	-1.75
2026-10-08	oos	0.099015	0.097624	-1.40%	0.08869	-10.43%	0.0867	✓	-1.76
2026-10-07	oos	0.096365	0.095216	-1.19%	0.089875	-6.73%	0.0942	✓	-1.76
2026-10-06	oos	0.098365	0.097236	-1.15%	0.10361	+5.33%	0.0105	✓	-1.83
2026-10-05	oos	0.084465	0.083938	-0.62%	0.100975	+19.55%	0.0994	✗	-1.78
2026-10-04	oos	0.092855	0.092085	-0.83%	0.10023	+7.94%	0.0235	✗	-1.84
2026-10-03	oos	0.090795	0.090091	-0.78%	0.100065	+10.21%	0.0637	✗	-1.89
2026-10-02	oos	0.09368	0.092877	-0.86%	0.09889	+5.56%	0.0183	✗	-1.89
2026-10-01	oos	0.095145	0.094296	-0.89%	0.099015	+4.07%	0.0231	✓	-1.90
2026-09-30	oos	0.10818	0.106773	-1.30%	0.096365	-10.92%	0.1088	✓	-1.86
2026-09-29	oos	0.12674	0.124329	-1.90%	0.098365	-22.39%	0.1917	✓	-1.89
2026-09-28	oos	0.123535	0.121209	-1.88%	0.084465	-31.63%	0.3100	✓	-1.89
2026-09-27	oos	0.15819	0.152658	-3.50%	0.092855	-41.30%	0.4472	✓	-2.09
2026-09-26	oos	0.127905	0.125195	-2.12%	0.090795	-29.01%	0.3134	✓	-2.04
2026-09-25	oos	0.10542	0.103818	-1.52%	0.09368	-11.14%	0.0928	✓	-2.03
2026-09-24	oos	0.10401	0.102472	-1.48%	0.095145	-8.52%	0.0631	✓	-2.02
2026-09-23	oos	0.10388	0.102336	-1.49%	0.10818	+4.14%	0.0358	✗	-2.02
2026-09-22	oos	0.094815	0.093775	-1.10%	0.12674	+33.67%	0.2427	✗	-1.94
2026-09-21	oos	0.10284	0.101638	-1.17%	0.123535	+20.12%	0.1219	✗	-1.98
2026-09-20	oos	0.11312	0.11086	-2.00%	0.15819	+39.84%	0.4406	✗	-2.13
2026-09-19	oos	0.11891	0.116253	-2.23%	0.127905	+7.56%	0.1780	✗	-2.15
2026-09-18	oos	0.1196	0.116687	-2.44%	0.10542	-11.86%	0.0178	✓	-2.15
2026-09-17	oos	0.12931	0.124971	-3.36%	0.10401	-19.57%	0.2837	✓	1.00
2026-09-16	oos	0.14044	0.134612	-4.15%	0.10388	-26.03%	0.3618	✓	1.00
2026-09-15	oos	0.129815	0.124755	-3.90%	0.094815	-26.96%	0.4058	✓	1.00
2026-09-14	oos	0.15573	0.147635	-5.20%	0.10284	-33.96%	0.4639	✓	1.00
2026-09-13	oos	0.156615	0.147785	-5.64%	0.11312	-27.77%	0.3225	✓	1.00
2026-09-12	oos	0.18555	0.172285	-7.15%	0.11891	-35.91%	0.4209	✓	1.00
2026-09-11	oos	0.196105	0.180866	-7.77%	0.1196	-39.01%	0.4600	✓	1.00
2026-09-10	oos	0.18591	0.171088	-7.97%	0.12931	-30.44%	0.2775	✓	1.00
2026-09-09	oos	0.1367	0.127938	-6.41%	0.14044	+2.74%	0.1209	✗	1.00
2026-09-08	oos	0.13717	0.127934	-6.73%	0.129815	-5.36%	0.0518	✓	1.00
2026-09-07	oos	0.117485	0.11058	-5.88%	0.15573	+32.55%	0.3540	✗	1.00
2026-09-06	oos	0.102915	0.098431	-4.36%	0.156615	+52.18%	0.5095	✗	1.00
2026-09-05	oos	0.07698	0.075386	-2.07%	0.18555	+141.04%	0.9334	✗	1.00
2026-09-04	oos	0.07564	0.074262	-1.82%	0.196105	+159.26%	1.0025	✗	1.00
2026-09-03	oos	0.07329	0.072494	-1.09%	0.18591	+153.66%	1.0017	✗	1.00
2026-09-02	oos	0.07012	0.069231	-1.27%	0.1367	+94.95%	0.6678	✗	1.00
2026-09-01	oos	0.06978	0.069075	-1.01%	0.13717	+96.57%	0.6726	✗	1.00
2026-08-31	oos	0.06946	0.069172	-0.41%	0.117485	+69.14%	0.5230	✗	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.07144	0.070935	-0.71%	0.102915	+44.06%	0.3383	✗	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.07166	0.071466	-0.27%	0.07698	+7.42%	0.0541	✗	1.00
2026-08-28	oos	0.07463	0.07432	-0.42%	0.07564	+1.35%	0.0057	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.