SWM

Swarm · · lstm_s2

token id: #257
symbol: SWM
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-19
predictions: 165

Track record at +1d

assessed

54

of 55 predictions shown

direction hit

48.1%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0743

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0130

actual +0.0042

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.09181	0.090927	-0.96%	–	pending	–	–	-1.57
2026-10-20	oos	0.091445	0.090429	-1.11%	0.09181	+0.40%	0.0106	✓	-1.56
2026-10-19	oos	0.09194	0.091195	-0.81%	0.091445	-0.54%	0.0238	✗	-1.57
2026-10-18	oos	0.093595	0.092664	-0.99%	0.09194	-1.77%	0.0111	✓	-1.58
2026-10-17	oos	0.09361	0.092599	-1.08%	0.093595	-0.02%	0.0228	✗	-1.58
2026-10-16	oos	0.09504	0.093892	-1.21%	0.09361	-1.50%	0.0053	✓	-1.58
2026-10-15	oos	0.08869	0.087602	-1.23%	0.09504	+7.16%	0.0697	✗	-1.55
2026-10-14	oos	0.089875	0.089009	-0.96%	0.08869	-1.32%	0.0070	✓	-1.55
2026-10-13	oos	0.10361	0.101988	-1.57%	0.089875	-13.26%	0.1580	✓	-1.69
2026-10-12	oos	0.100975	0.099719	-1.24%	0.10361	+2.61%	0.0667	✗	-1.72
2026-10-11	oos	0.10023	0.098813	-1.41%	0.100975	+0.74%	0.0192	✓	-1.75
2026-10-10	oos	0.100065	0.098864	-1.20%	0.10023	+0.16%	0.0299	✗	-1.75
2026-10-09	oos	0.09889	0.097952	-0.95%	0.100065	+1.19%	0.0291	✗	-1.75
2026-10-08	oos	0.099015	0.098339	-0.68%	0.09889	-0.13%	0.0239	✗	-1.76
2026-10-07	oos	0.096365	0.09565	-0.74%	0.099015	+2.75%	0.0009	✓	-1.76
2026-10-06	oos	0.098365	0.097076	-1.31%	0.096365	-2.03%	0.0565	✓	-1.83
2026-10-05	oos	0.084465	0.083893	-0.68%	0.098365	+16.46%	0.1548	✗	-1.78
2026-10-04	oos	0.092855	0.091893	-1.04%	0.084465	-9.04%	0.1005	✓	-1.84
2026-10-03	oos	0.090795	0.090003	-0.87%	0.092855	+2.27%	0.0702	✗	-1.89
2026-10-02	oos	0.09368	0.092762	-0.98%	0.090795	-3.08%	0.0161	✓	-1.89
2026-10-01	oos	0.095145	0.094036	-1.17%	0.09368	-1.54%	0.0115	✓	-1.90
2026-09-30	oos	0.10818	0.106869	-1.21%	0.095145	-12.05%	0.0877	✓	-1.86
2026-09-29	oos	0.12674	0.124999	-1.37%	0.10818	-14.64%	0.1464	✓	-1.89
2026-09-28	oos	0.123535	0.121783	-1.42%	0.12674	+2.59%	0.0440	✗	-1.89
2026-09-27	oos	0.15819	0.155282	-1.84%	0.123535	-21.91%	0.2537	✓	-2.09
2026-09-26	oos	0.127905	0.125651	-1.76%	0.15819	+23.68%	0.2314	✗	-2.04
2026-09-25	oos	0.10542	0.103776	-1.56%	0.127905	+21.33%	0.2169	✗	-2.03
2026-09-24	oos	0.10401	0.102393	-1.55%	0.10542	+1.36%	0.0221	✗	-2.02
2026-09-23	oos	0.10388	0.102326	-1.50%	0.10401	+0.13%	0.0165	✗	-2.02
2026-09-22	oos	0.094815	0.093884	-0.98%	0.10388	+9.56%	0.0597	✗	-1.94
2026-09-21	oos	0.10284	0.102187	-0.63%	0.094815	-7.80%	0.0840	✓	-1.98
2026-09-20	oos	0.11312	0.111648	-1.30%	0.10284	-9.09%	0.0561	✗	-2.13
2026-09-19	oos	0.11891	0.117379	-1.29%	0.11312	-4.87%	0.0389	✓	-2.15
2026-09-18	oos	0.1196	0.118107	-1.25%	0.11891	-0.58%	0.0163	✗	-2.15
2026-09-17	oos	0.12931	0.127565	-1.35%	0.1196	-7.51%	0.1221	✓	1.00
2026-09-16	oos	0.14044	0.138212	-1.59%	0.12931	-7.93%	0.0692	✓	1.00
2026-09-15	oos	0.129815	0.128029	-1.38%	0.14044	+8.18%	0.0851	✗	1.00
2026-09-14	oos	0.15573	0.152933	-1.80%	0.129815	-16.64%	0.1302	✓	1.00
2026-09-13	oos	0.156615	0.15354	-1.96%	0.15573	-0.57%	0.0036	✓	1.00
2026-09-12	oos	0.18555	0.180318	-2.82%	0.156615	-15.59%	0.1349	✓	1.00
2026-09-11	oos	0.196105	0.189051	-3.60%	0.18555	-5.38%	0.0194	✓	1.00
2026-09-10	oos	0.18591	0.178487	-3.99%	0.196105	+5.48%	0.0854	✗	1.00
2026-09-09	oos	0.1367	0.133857	-2.08%	0.18591	+36.00%	0.3511	✗	1.00
2026-09-08	oos	0.13717	0.133971	-2.33%	0.1367	-0.34%	0.0223	✓	1.00
2026-09-07	oos	0.117485	0.115636	-1.57%	0.13717	+16.76%	0.1789	✗	1.00
2026-09-06	oos	0.102915	0.101686	-1.19%	0.117485	+14.16%	0.1601	✗	1.00
2026-09-05	oos	0.07698	0.076361	-0.80%	0.102915	+33.69%	0.2921	✗	1.00
2026-09-04	oos	0.07564	0.075146	-0.65%	0.07698	+1.77%	0.0222	✗	1.00
2026-09-03	oos	0.07329	0.07286	-0.59%	0.07564	+3.21%	0.0572	✗	1.00
2026-09-02	oos	0.07012	0.069803	-0.45%	0.07329	+4.52%	0.0012	✓	1.00
2026-09-01	oos	0.06978	0.069547	-0.33%	0.07012	+0.49%	0.0094	✗	1.00
2026-08-31	oos	0.06946	0.06924	-0.32%	0.06978	+0.46%	0.0227	✗	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.07144	0.071152	-0.40%	0.06946	-2.77%	0.0356	✓	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.07166	0.071299	-0.50%	0.07144	-0.31%	0.0093	✗	1.00
2026-08-28	oos	0.07463	0.074063	-0.76%	0.07166	-3.98%	0.0380	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.