SWM

Swarm · · lstm_s1

token id: #257
symbol: SWM
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-19
predictions: 168

Track record at +7d

assessed

49

of 56 predictions shown

direction hit

63.3%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.2540

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0337

actual +0.0251

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	0.090935	0.089413	-1.67%	–	pending	–	–	-1.55
2026-10-21	oos	0.090825	0.089521	-1.44%	–	pending	–	–	-1.55
2026-10-20	oos	0.091445	0.090176	-1.39%	–	pending	–	–	-1.56
2026-10-19	oos	0.09194	0.090723	-1.32%	–	pending	–	–	-1.57
2026-10-18	oos	0.093595	0.09229	-1.39%	–	pending	–	–	-1.58
2026-10-17	oos	0.09361	0.092344	-1.35%	–	pending	–	–	-1.58
2026-10-16	oos	0.09504	0.093679	-1.43%	–	pending	–	–	-1.58
2026-10-15	oos	0.08869	0.087679	-1.14%	0.090935	+2.53%	0.0756	✗	-1.55
2026-10-14	oos	0.089875	0.088903	-1.08%	0.090825	+1.06%	0.0676	✗	-1.55
2026-10-13	oos	0.10361	0.101698	-1.85%	0.091445	-11.74%	0.1096	✓	-1.69
2026-10-12	oos	0.100975	0.099281	-1.68%	0.09194	-8.95%	0.0748	✓	-1.72
2026-10-11	oos	0.10023	0.098561	-1.66%	0.093595	-6.62%	0.0869	✓	-1.75
2026-10-10	oos	0.100065	0.098427	-1.64%	0.09361	-6.45%	0.0828	✓	-1.75
2026-10-09	oos	0.09889	0.097372	-1.54%	0.09504	-3.89%	0.0466	✓	-1.75
2026-10-08	oos	0.099015	0.097552	-1.48%	0.08869	-10.43%	0.0860	✓	-1.76
2026-10-07	oos	0.096365	0.095115	-1.30%	0.089875	-6.73%	0.0931	✓	-1.76
2026-10-06	oos	0.098365	0.096976	-1.41%	0.10361	+5.33%	0.0132	✓	-1.83
2026-10-05	oos	0.084465	0.083887	-0.68%	0.100975	+19.55%	0.1000	✗	-1.78
2026-10-04	oos	0.092855	0.091957	-0.97%	0.10023	+7.94%	0.0249	✗	-1.84
2026-10-03	oos	0.090795	0.090146	-0.71%	0.100065	+10.21%	0.0630	✗	-1.89
2026-10-02	oos	0.09368	0.092951	-0.78%	0.09889	+5.56%	0.0175	✗	-1.89
2026-10-01	oos	0.095145	0.094325	-0.86%	0.099015	+4.07%	0.0234	✓	-1.90
2026-09-30	oos	0.10818	0.106633	-1.43%	0.096365	-10.92%	0.1075	✓	-1.86
2026-09-29	oos	0.12674	0.122495	-3.35%	0.098365	-22.39%	0.1768	✓	-1.89
2026-09-28	oos	0.123535	0.119728	-3.08%	0.084465	-31.63%	0.2977	✓	-1.89
2026-09-27	oos	0.15819	0.146725	-7.25%	0.092855	-41.30%	0.4076	✓	-2.09
2026-09-26	oos	0.127905	0.122655	-4.10%	0.090795	-29.01%	0.2929	✓	-2.04
2026-09-25	oos	0.10542	0.103767	-1.57%	0.09368	-11.14%	0.0923	✓	-2.03
2026-09-24	oos	0.10401	0.102451	-1.50%	0.095145	-8.52%	0.0629	✓	-2.02
2026-09-23	oos	0.10388	0.102317	-1.50%	0.10818	+4.14%	0.0359	✗	-2.02
2026-09-22	oos	0.094815	0.093716	-1.16%	0.12674	+33.67%	0.2433	✗	-1.94
2026-09-21	oos	0.10284	0.101417	-1.38%	0.123535	+20.12%	0.1241	✗	-1.98
2026-09-20	oos	0.11312	0.110407	-2.40%	0.15819	+39.84%	0.4447	✗	-2.13
2026-09-19	oos	0.11891	0.115098	-3.21%	0.127905	+7.56%	0.1880	✗	-2.15
2026-09-18	oos	0.1196	0.115311	-3.59%	0.10542	-11.86%	0.0059	✓	-2.15
2026-09-17	oos	0.12931	0.122514	-5.26%	0.10401	-19.57%	0.2638	✓	1.00
2026-09-16	oos	0.14044	0.131762	-6.18%	0.10388	-26.03%	0.3404	✓	1.00
2026-09-15	oos	0.129815	0.122245	-5.83%	0.094815	-26.96%	0.3855	✓	1.00
2026-09-14	oos	0.15573	0.144534	-7.19%	0.10284	-33.96%	0.4426	✓	1.00
2026-09-13	oos	0.156615	0.144423	-7.78%	0.11312	-27.77%	0.2995	✓	1.00
2026-09-12	oos	0.18555	0.166018	-10.53%	0.11891	-35.91%	0.3838	✓	1.00
2026-09-11	oos	0.196105	0.169726	-13.45%	0.1196	-39.01%	0.3964	✓	1.00
2026-09-10	oos	0.18591	0.157629	-15.21%	0.12931	-30.44%	0.1956	✓	1.00
2026-09-09	oos	0.1367	0.122135	-10.65%	0.14044	+2.74%	0.1674	✗	1.00
2026-09-08	oos	0.13717	0.120485	-12.16%	0.129815	-5.36%	0.1118	✓	1.00
2026-09-07	oos	0.117485	0.106509	-9.34%	0.15573	+32.55%	0.3916	✗	1.00
2026-09-06	oos	0.102915	0.097593	-5.17%	0.156615	+52.18%	0.5180	✗	1.00
2026-09-05	oos	0.07698	0.076188	-1.03%	0.18555	+141.04%	0.9228	✗	1.00
2026-09-04	oos	0.07564	0.075191	-0.59%	0.196105	+159.26%	0.9901	✗	1.00
2026-09-03	oos	0.07329	0.073274	-0.02%	0.18591	+153.66%	0.9910	✗	1.00
2026-09-02	oos	0.07012	0.070249	+0.18%	0.1367	+94.95%	0.6532	✓	1.00
2026-09-01	oos	0.06978	0.07021	+0.62%	0.13717	+96.57%	0.6563	✓	1.00
2026-08-31	oos	0.06946	0.070206	+1.07%	0.117485	+69.14%	0.5082	✓	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.07144	0.072329	+1.24%	0.102915	+44.06%	0.3188	✓	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.07166	0.07282	+1.62%	0.07698	+7.42%	0.0353	✓	1.00
2026-08-28	oos	0.07463	0.075975	+1.80%	0.07564	+1.35%	0.0277	✗	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.