SWM

Swarm · · lstm_s1

token id: #257
symbol: SWM
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-19
predictions: 168

Track record at +1d

assessed

55

of 56 predictions shown

direction hit

47.3%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0728

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0075

actual +0.0044

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	0.090935	0.090594	-0.38%	–	pending	–	–	-1.55
2026-10-21	oos	0.090825	0.09053	-0.32%	0.090935	+0.12%	0.0080	✗	-1.55
2026-10-20	oos	0.091445	0.091159	-0.31%	0.090825	-0.68%	0.0167	✗	-1.56
2026-10-19	oos	0.09194	0.091664	-0.30%	0.091445	-0.54%	0.0186	✗	-1.57
2026-10-18	oos	0.093595	0.093301	-0.31%	0.09194	-1.77%	0.0179	✓	-1.58
2026-10-17	oos	0.09361	0.09333	-0.30%	0.093595	-0.02%	0.0149	✗	-1.58
2026-10-16	oos	0.09504	0.094744	-0.31%	0.09361	-1.50%	0.0143	✓	-1.58
2026-10-15	oos	0.08869	0.088478	-0.24%	0.09504	+7.16%	0.0597	✗	-1.55
2026-10-14	oos	0.089875	0.08967	-0.23%	0.08869	-1.32%	0.0004	✓	-1.55
2026-10-13	oos	0.10361	0.10318	-0.41%	0.089875	-13.26%	0.1696	✓	-1.69
2026-10-12	oos	0.100975	0.100599	-0.37%	0.10361	+2.61%	0.0579	✗	-1.72
2026-10-11	oos	0.10023	0.099857	-0.37%	0.100975	+0.74%	0.0297	✓	-1.75
2026-10-10	oos	0.100065	0.099698	-0.37%	0.10023	+0.16%	0.0215	✗	-1.75
2026-10-09	oos	0.09889	0.098555	-0.34%	0.100065	+1.19%	0.0230	✗	-1.75
2026-10-08	oos	0.099015	0.098692	-0.33%	0.09889	-0.13%	0.0203	✗	-1.76
2026-10-07	oos	0.096365	0.09609	-0.29%	0.099015	+2.75%	0.0037	✓	-1.76
2026-10-06	oos	0.098365	0.098057	-0.31%	0.096365	-2.03%	0.0666	✓	-1.83
2026-10-05	oos	0.084465	0.084349	-0.14%	0.098365	+16.46%	0.1494	✗	-1.78
2026-10-04	oos	0.092855	0.092667	-0.20%	0.084465	-9.04%	0.1089	✓	-1.84
2026-10-03	oos	0.090795	0.090673	-0.13%	0.092855	+2.27%	0.0628	✗	-1.89
2026-10-02	oos	0.09368	0.093549	-0.14%	0.090795	-3.08%	0.0246	✓	-1.89
2026-10-01	oos	0.095145	0.095002	-0.15%	0.09368	-1.54%	0.0217	✓	-1.90
2026-09-30	oos	0.10818	0.107882	-0.28%	0.095145	-12.05%	0.0972	✓	-1.86
2026-09-29	oos	0.12674	0.125821	-0.73%	0.10818	-14.64%	0.1529	✓	-1.89
2026-09-28	oos	0.123535	0.122714	-0.66%	0.12674	+2.59%	0.0364	✗	-1.89
2026-09-27	oos	0.15819	0.155362	-1.79%	0.123535	-21.91%	0.2542	✓	-2.09
2026-09-26	oos	0.127905	0.126719	-0.93%	0.15819	+23.68%	0.2229	✗	-2.04
2026-09-25	oos	0.10542	0.10508	-0.32%	0.127905	+21.33%	0.2044	✗	-2.03
2026-09-24	oos	0.10401	0.103696	-0.30%	0.10542	+1.36%	0.0095	✗	-2.02
2026-09-23	oos	0.10388	0.103568	-0.30%	0.10401	+0.13%	0.0044	✗	-2.02
2026-09-22	oos	0.094815	0.094605	-0.22%	0.10388	+9.56%	0.0521	✗	-1.94
2026-09-21	oos	0.10284	0.102555	-0.28%	0.094815	-7.80%	0.0876	✓	-1.98
2026-09-20	oos	0.11312	0.11258	-0.48%	0.10284	-9.09%	0.0478	✗	-2.13
2026-09-19	oos	0.11891	0.118128	-0.66%	0.11312	-4.87%	0.0453	✓	-2.15
2026-09-18	oos	0.1196	0.118723	-0.73%	0.11891	-0.58%	0.0111	✗	-2.15
2026-09-17	oos	0.12931	0.12786	-1.12%	0.1196	-7.51%	0.1244	✓	1.00
2026-09-16	oos	0.14044	0.138503	-1.38%	0.12931	-7.93%	0.0714	✓	1.00
2026-09-15	oos	0.129815	0.128192	-1.25%	0.14044	+8.18%	0.0839	✗	1.00
2026-09-14	oos	0.15573	0.153083	-1.70%	0.129815	-16.64%	0.1312	✓	1.00
2026-09-13	oos	0.156615	0.15368	-1.87%	0.15573	-0.57%	0.0045	✓	1.00
2026-09-12	oos	0.18555	0.180486	-2.73%	0.156615	-15.59%	0.1359	✓	1.00
2026-09-11	oos	0.196105	0.189019	-3.61%	0.18555	-5.38%	0.0192	✓	1.00
2026-09-10	oos	0.18591	0.178238	-4.13%	0.196105	+5.48%	0.0868	✗	1.00
2026-09-09	oos	0.1367	0.13297	-2.73%	0.18591	+36.00%	0.3577	✗	1.00
2026-09-08	oos	0.13717	0.132846	-3.15%	0.1367	-0.34%	0.0307	✓	1.00
2026-09-07	oos	0.117485	0.114725	-2.35%	0.13717	+16.76%	0.1869	✗	1.00
2026-09-06	oos	0.102915	0.101654	-1.23%	0.117485	+14.16%	0.1604	✗	1.00
2026-09-05	oos	0.07698	0.076791	-0.25%	0.102915	+33.69%	0.2865	✗	1.00
2026-09-04	oos	0.07564	0.075515	-0.17%	0.07698	+1.77%	0.0173	✗	1.00
2026-09-03	oos	0.07329	0.073238	-0.07%	0.07564	+3.21%	0.0520	✗	1.00
2026-09-02	oos	0.07012	0.070112	-0.01%	0.07329	+4.52%	0.0056	✓	1.00
2026-09-01	oos	0.06978	0.06982	+0.06%	0.07012	+0.49%	0.0055	✓	1.00
2026-08-31	oos	0.06946	0.069545	+0.12%	0.06978	+0.46%	0.0183	✓	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.07144	0.071542	+0.14%	0.06946	-2.77%	0.0410	✗	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.07166	0.071793	+0.19%	0.07144	-0.31%	0.0024	✓	1.00
2026-08-28	oos	0.07463	0.074779	+0.20%	0.07166	-3.98%	0.0477	✗	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.