UMX

UMX · · lstm_s0

token id: #759
symbol: UMX
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-07
predictions: 204

Track record at +7d

assessed

61

of 68 predictions shown

direction hit

83.6%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0693

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0264

actual -0.0783

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	0.041845	0.041387	-1.09%	–	pending	–	–	0.20
2026-10-21	oos	0.03934	0.038744	-1.51%	–	pending	–	–	0.20
2026-10-20	oos	0.042915	0.042287	-1.46%	–	pending	–	–	0.22
2026-10-19	oos	0.05515	0.053843	-2.37%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-18	oos	0.055405	0.05433	-1.94%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-17	oos	0.05585	0.054748	-1.97%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-16	oos	0.059095	0.057902	-2.02%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-15	oos	0.059045	0.058089	-1.62%	0.041845	-29.13%	0.3355	✓	0.30
2026-10-14	oos	0.05934	0.058291	-1.77%	0.03934	-33.70%	0.4019	✓	0.29
2026-10-13	oos	0.05942	0.058838	-0.98%	0.042915	-27.78%	0.3149	✓	0.32
2026-10-12	oos	0.06042	0.059538	-1.46%	0.05515	-8.72%	0.0769	✓	0.31
2026-10-11	oos	0.060205	0.059601	-1.00%	0.055405	-7.97%	0.0659	✓	0.35
2026-10-10	oos	0.06067	0.059464	-1.99%	0.05585	-7.94%	0.0562	✓	0.35
2026-10-09	oos	0.060945	0.059268	-2.75%	0.059095	-3.04%	0.0015	✓	0.35
2026-10-08	oos	0.06053	0.058863	-2.75%	0.059045	-2.45%	0.0013	✓	0.34
2026-10-07	oos	0.061825	0.060151	-2.71%	0.05934	-4.02%	0.0062	✓	0.35
2026-10-06	oos	0.061715	0.060056	-2.69%	0.05942	-3.72%	0.0010	✓	0.40
2026-10-05	oos	0.06169	0.059939	-2.84%	0.06042	-2.06%	0.0277	✓	0.41
2026-10-04	oos	0.06171	0.059919	-2.90%	0.060205	-2.44%	0.0191	✓	0.43
2026-10-03	oos	0.061395	0.059463	-3.15%	0.06067	-1.18%	0.0291	✓	0.41
2026-10-02	oos	0.0617	0.059707	-3.23%	0.060945	-1.22%	0.0303	✓	0.41
2026-10-01	oos	0.06148	0.059613	-3.04%	0.06053	-1.55%	0.0315	✗	0.43
2026-09-30	oos	0.06139	0.059455	-3.15%	0.061825	+0.71%	0.0405	✗	0.42
2026-09-29	oos	0.06121	0.059399	-2.96%	0.061715	+0.83%	0.0287	✓	0.42
2026-09-28	oos	0.060615	0.058789	-3.01%	0.06169	+1.77%	0.0366	✗	0.43
2026-09-27	oos	0.06074	0.058909	-3.01%	0.06171	+1.60%	0.0356	✗	0.46
2026-09-26	oos	0.06106	0.059178	-3.08%	0.061395	+0.55%	0.0350	✗	0.46
2026-09-25	oos	0.060915	0.058988	-3.16%	0.0617	+1.29%	0.0427	✗	0.46
2026-09-24	oos	0.06117	0.059199	-3.22%	0.06148	+0.51%	0.0352	✗	0.48
2026-09-23	oos	0.06117	0.059155	-3.29%	0.06139	+0.36%	0.0418	✗	0.48
2026-09-22	oos	0.060735	0.060177	-0.92%	0.06121	+0.78%	0.0335	✗	0.55
2026-09-21	oos	0.06117	0.060819	-0.57%	0.060615	-0.91%	0.0175	✗	0.56
2026-09-20	oos	0.061435	0.059204	-3.63%	0.06074	-1.13%	0.0037	✓	0.55
2026-09-19	oos	0.06046	0.05828	-3.61%	0.06106	+0.99%	0.0248	✓	0.57
2026-09-18	oos	0.06137	0.059135	-3.64%	0.060915	-0.74%	0.0075	✓	0.57
2026-09-17	oos	0.06115	0.059112	-3.33%	0.06117	+0.03%	0.0173	✓	0.51
2026-09-16	oos	0.06201	0.059969	-3.29%	0.06117	-1.35%	0.0332	✓	0.52
2026-09-15	oos	0.06086	0.059055	-2.97%	0.060735	-0.21%	0.0384	✓	0.51
2026-09-14	oos	0.06052	0.058723	-2.97%	0.06117	+1.07%	0.0264	✓	0.66
2026-09-13	oos	0.060775	0.059098	-2.76%	0.061435	+1.09%	0.0040	✓	0.63
2026-09-12	oos	0.062595	0.060818	-2.84%	0.06046	-3.41%	0.0384	✓	0.65
2026-09-11	oos	0.065045	0.063132	-2.94%	0.06137	-5.65%	0.0585	✓	0.65
2026-09-10	oos	0.06506	0.063257	-2.77%	0.06115	-6.01%	0.0323	✓	0.64
2026-09-09	oos	0.06486	0.063124	-2.68%	0.06201	-4.39%	0.0033	✓	0.76
2026-09-08	oos	0.066495	0.06469	-2.71%	0.06086	-8.47%	0.0321	✓	0.78
2026-09-07	oos	0.068065	0.066158	-2.80%	0.06052	-11.08%	0.0796	✓	0.82
2026-09-06	oos	0.06993	0.067892	-2.91%	0.060775	-13.09%	0.0709	✓	0.88
2026-09-05	oos	0.071875	0.069683	-3.05%	0.062595	-12.91%	0.0746	✓	1.00
2026-09-04	oos	0.07207	0.069874	-3.05%	0.065045	-9.75%	0.0402	✓	1.00
2026-09-03	oos	0.07313	0.070859	-3.11%	0.06506	-11.04%	0.0255	✓	1.00
2026-09-02	oos	0.07424	0.071968	-3.06%	0.06486	-12.63%	0.1165	✓	1.00
2026-09-01	oos	0.07438	0.072147	-3.00%	0.066495	-10.60%	0.0951	✓	1.00
2026-08-31	oos	0.07495	0.072744	-2.94%	0.068065	-9.19%	0.0732	✓	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.07579	0.073608	-2.88%	0.06993	-7.73%	0.0851	✓	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.07513	0.07313	-2.66%	0.071875	-4.33%	0.0375	✓	1.00
2026-08-28	oos	0.07633	0.074326	-2.63%	0.07207	-5.58%	0.0541	✓	1.00
2026-08-27	oos	0.07696	0.075254	-2.22%	0.07313	-4.98%	0.0409	✓	1.00
2026-08-26	oos	0.08217	0.07995	-2.70%	0.07424	-9.65%	0.0521	✓	1.00
2026-08-25	oos	0.08355	0.081295	-2.70%	0.07438	-10.98%	0.0744	✓	1.00
2026-08-24	oos	0.08871	0.086241	-2.78%	0.07495	-15.51%	0.1350	✓	1.00
2026-08-23	oos	0.08672	0.084434	-2.64%	0.07579	-12.60%	0.1072	✓	1.00
2026-08-22	oos	0.08671	0.084578	-2.46%	0.07513	-13.35%	0.1336	✓	1.00
2026-08-21	oos	0.08346	0.081984	-1.77%	0.07633	-8.54%	0.0652	✓	1.00
2026-08-20	oos	0.08276	0.081184	-1.90%	0.07696	-7.01%	0.1483	✓	1.00
2026-08-19	oos	0.08486	0.083232	-1.92%	0.08217	-3.17%	0.1442	✓	1.00
2026-08-18	oos	0.08495	0.08355	-1.65%	0.08355	-1.65%	0.1940	✓	1.00
2026-08-17	oos	0.08465	0.08338	-1.50%	0.08871	+4.80%	0.1409	✓	1.00
2026-08-16	oos	0.08446	0.083356	-1.31%	0.08672	+2.68%	0.1731	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.