UMX

UMX · · lstm_s0

token id: #759
symbol: UMX
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-07
predictions: 201

Track record at +1d

assessed

66

of 67 predictions shown

direction hit

62.1%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0232

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0091

actual -0.0127

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.0466	0.046066	-1.14%	–	pending	–	–	0.19
2026-10-20	oos	0.042915	0.042145	-1.79%	0.0466	+8.59%	0.1011	✗	0.22
2026-10-19	oos	0.05515	0.054249	-1.63%	0.042915	-22.18%	0.2382	✓	0.29
2026-10-18	oos	0.055405	0.054913	-0.89%	0.05515	-0.46%	0.0049	✓	0.29
2026-10-17	oos	0.05585	0.055391	-0.82%	0.055405	-0.80%	0.0020	✓	0.29
2026-10-16	oos	0.059095	0.05864	-0.77%	0.05585	-5.49%	0.0483	✓	0.29
2026-10-15	oos	0.059045	0.058594	-0.76%	0.059095	+0.08%	0.0108	✗	0.30
2026-10-14	oos	0.05934	0.058889	-0.76%	0.059045	-0.50%	0.0006	✓	0.29
2026-10-13	oos	0.05942	0.058936	-0.81%	0.05934	-0.13%	0.0128	✗	0.32
2026-10-12	oos	0.06042	0.059953	-0.77%	0.05942	-1.66%	0.0141	✓	0.31
2026-10-11	oos	0.060205	0.059707	-0.83%	0.06042	+0.36%	0.0201	✗	0.35
2026-10-10	oos	0.06067	0.060153	-0.85%	0.060205	-0.77%	0.0024	✓	0.35
2026-10-09	oos	0.060945	0.060433	-0.84%	0.06067	-0.45%	0.0024	✓	0.35
2026-10-08	oos	0.06053	0.060067	-0.76%	0.060945	+0.69%	0.0110	✗	0.34
2026-10-07	oos	0.061825	0.061403	-0.68%	0.06053	-2.09%	0.0075	✓	0.35
2026-10-06	oos	0.061715	0.061417	-0.48%	0.061825	+0.18%	0.0174	✗	0.40
2026-10-05	oos	0.06169	0.061338	-0.57%	0.061715	+0.04%	0.0071	✗	0.41
2026-10-04	oos	0.06171	0.061323	-0.63%	0.06169	-0.03%	0.0098	✗	0.43
2026-10-03	oos	0.061395	0.060812	-0.95%	0.06171	+0.51%	0.0061	✓	0.41
2026-10-02	oos	0.0617	0.061078	-1.01%	0.061395	-0.49%	0.0040	✓	0.41
2026-10-01	oos	0.06148	0.060964	-0.84%	0.0617	+0.36%	0.0137	✗	0.43
2026-09-30	oos	0.06139	0.06081	-0.95%	0.06148	+0.15%	0.0046	✓	0.42
2026-09-29	oos	0.06121	0.060733	-0.78%	0.06139	+0.29%	0.0112	✗	0.42
2026-09-28	oos	0.060615	0.060123	-0.81%	0.06121	+0.98%	0.0170	✗	0.43
2026-09-27	oos	0.06074	0.060261	-0.79%	0.060615	-0.21%	0.0113	✗	0.46
2026-09-26	oos	0.06106	0.06056	-0.82%	0.06074	-0.52%	0.0027	✓	0.46
2026-09-25	oos	0.060915	0.060388	-0.86%	0.06106	+0.24%	0.0093	✗	0.46
2026-09-24	oos	0.06117	0.060627	-0.89%	0.060915	-0.42%	0.0064	✓	0.48
2026-09-23	oos	0.06117	0.060603	-0.93%	0.06117	+0.00%	0.0093	✓	0.48
2026-09-22	oos	0.060735	0.0602	-0.88%	0.06117	+0.72%	0.0277	✗	0.55
2026-09-21	oos	0.06117	0.060626	-0.89%	0.060735	-0.71%	0.0044	✓	0.56
2026-09-20	oos	0.061435	0.060744	-1.12%	0.06117	-0.43%	0.0286	✓	0.55
2026-09-19	oos	0.06046	0.059761	-1.16%	0.061435	+1.61%	0.0281	✗	0.57
2026-09-18	oos	0.06137	0.060653	-1.17%	0.06046	-1.48%	0.0057	✓	0.57
2026-09-17	oos	0.06115	0.060503	-1.06%	0.06137	+0.36%	0.0154	✓	0.51
2026-09-16	oos	0.06201	0.061354	-1.06%	0.06115	-1.39%	0.0047	✓	0.52
2026-09-15	oos	0.06086	0.060277	-0.96%	0.06201	+1.89%	0.0246	✗	0.51
2026-09-14	oos	0.06052	0.059903	-1.02%	0.06086	+0.56%	0.0380	✗	0.66
2026-09-13	oos	0.060775	0.060226	-0.90%	0.06052	-0.42%	0.0063	✓	0.63
2026-09-12	oos	0.062595	0.062013	-0.93%	0.060775	-2.91%	0.0163	✓	0.65
2026-09-11	oos	0.065045	0.064429	-0.95%	0.062595	-3.77%	0.0293	✓	0.65
2026-09-10	oos	0.06506	0.064494	-0.87%	0.065045	-0.02%	0.0029	✓	0.64
2026-09-09	oos	0.06486	0.064291	-0.88%	0.06506	+0.31%	0.0291	✗	0.76
2026-09-08	oos	0.066495	0.0659	-0.89%	0.06486	-2.46%	0.0143	✓	0.78
2026-09-07	oos	0.068065	0.067436	-0.92%	0.066495	-2.31%	0.0074	✓	0.82
2026-09-06	oos	0.06993	0.069248	-0.98%	0.068065	-2.67%	0.0034	✓	0.88
2026-09-05	oos	0.071875	0.071164	-0.99%	0.06993	-2.71%	0.0238	✓	1.00
2026-09-04	oos	0.07207	0.071317	-1.04%	0.071875	-0.27%	0.0058	✓	1.00
2026-09-03	oos	0.07313	0.072428	-0.96%	0.07207	-1.45%	0.0148	✗	1.00
2026-09-02	oos	0.07424	0.073451	-1.06%	0.07313	-1.50%	0.0543	✓	1.00
2026-09-01	oos	0.07438	0.073605	-1.04%	0.07424	-0.19%	0.0098	✓	1.00
2026-08-31	oos	0.07495	0.074175	-1.03%	0.07438	-0.76%	0.0177	✗	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.07579	0.074998	-1.04%	0.07495	-1.11%	0.0121	✓	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.07513	0.074349	-1.04%	0.07579	+0.88%	0.0265	✗	1.00
2026-08-28	oos	0.07633	0.075533	-1.04%	0.07513	-1.57%	0.0104	✓	1.00
2026-08-27	oos	0.07696	0.07623	-0.95%	0.07633	-0.82%	0.0321	✗	1.00
2026-08-26	oos	0.08217	0.081374	-0.97%	0.07696	-6.34%	0.0714	✓	1.00
2026-08-25	oos	0.08355	0.082705	-1.01%	0.08217	-1.65%	0.0128	✓	1.00
2026-08-24	oos	0.08871	0.087854	-0.97%	0.08355	-5.82%	0.0445	✓	1.00
2026-08-23	oos	0.08672	0.085764	-1.10%	0.08871	+2.29%	0.0178	✗	1.00
2026-08-22	oos	0.08671	0.085703	-1.16%	0.08672	+0.01%	0.0031	✓	1.00
2026-08-21	oos	0.08346	0.082484	-1.17%	0.08671	+3.89%	0.0663	✗	1.00
2026-08-20	oos	0.08276	0.081887	-1.05%	0.08346	+0.85%	0.0512	✓	1.00
2026-08-19	oos	0.08486	0.08424	-0.73%	0.08276	-2.47%	0.0699	✓	1.00
2026-08-18	oos	0.08495	0.084741	-0.25%	0.08486	-0.11%	0.0676	✓	1.00
2026-08-17	oos	0.08465	0.084508	-0.17%	0.08495	+0.35%	0.0021	✗	1.00
2026-08-16	oos	0.08446	0.084456	-0.00%	0.08465	+0.22%	0.0235	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.