SWM

Swarm · · gru_s9

token id: #257
symbol: SWM
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-19
predictions: 168

Track record at +7d

assessed

49

of 56 predictions shown

direction hit

55.1%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.2597

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0206

actual +0.0251

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	0.090935	0.089639	-1.43%	–	pending	–	–	-1.55
2026-10-21	oos	0.090825	0.089645	-1.30%	–	pending	–	–	-1.55
2026-10-20	oos	0.091445	0.09025	-1.31%	–	pending	–	–	-1.56
2026-10-19	oos	0.09194	0.090665	-1.39%	–	pending	–	–	-1.57
2026-10-18	oos	0.093595	0.092139	-1.56%	–	pending	–	–	-1.58
2026-10-17	oos	0.09361	0.092079	-1.64%	–	pending	–	–	-1.58
2026-10-16	oos	0.09504	0.093322	-1.81%	–	pending	–	–	-1.58
2026-10-15	oos	0.08869	0.08734	-1.52%	0.090935	+2.53%	0.0795	✗	-1.55
2026-10-14	oos	0.089875	0.088503	-1.53%	0.090825	+1.06%	0.0721	✗	-1.55
2026-10-13	oos	0.10361	0.10142	-2.11%	0.091445	-11.74%	0.1069	✓	-1.69
2026-10-12	oos	0.100975	0.098832	-2.12%	0.09194	-8.95%	0.0703	✓	-1.72
2026-10-11	oos	0.10023	0.098513	-1.71%	0.093595	-6.62%	0.0865	✓	-1.75
2026-10-10	oos	0.100065	0.098224	-1.84%	0.09361	-6.45%	0.0808	✓	-1.75
2026-10-09	oos	0.09889	0.097178	-1.73%	0.09504	-3.89%	0.0446	✓	-1.75
2026-10-08	oos	0.099015	0.097223	-1.81%	0.08869	-10.43%	0.0826	✓	-1.76
2026-10-07	oos	0.096365	0.094919	-1.50%	0.089875	-6.73%	0.0910	✓	-1.76
2026-10-06	oos	0.098365	0.09699	-1.40%	0.10361	+5.33%	0.0131	✓	-1.83
2026-10-05	oos	0.084465	0.083438	-1.22%	0.100975	+19.55%	0.1054	✗	-1.78
2026-10-04	oos	0.092855	0.091683	-1.26%	0.10023	+7.94%	0.0279	✗	-1.84
2026-10-03	oos	0.090795	0.089497	-1.43%	0.100065	+10.21%	0.0703	✗	-1.89
2026-10-02	oos	0.09368	0.092252	-1.52%	0.09889	+5.56%	0.0250	✗	-1.89
2026-10-01	oos	0.095145	0.093661	-1.56%	0.099015	+4.07%	0.0163	✓	-1.90
2026-09-30	oos	0.10818	0.106502	-1.55%	0.096365	-10.92%	0.1063	✓	-1.86
2026-09-29	oos	0.12674	0.124417	-1.83%	0.098365	-22.39%	0.1924	✓	-1.89
2026-09-28	oos	0.123535	0.121339	-1.78%	0.084465	-31.63%	0.3111	✓	-1.89
2026-09-27	oos	0.15819	0.153703	-2.84%	0.092855	-41.30%	0.4540	✓	-2.09
2026-09-26	oos	0.127905	0.125486	-1.89%	0.090795	-29.01%	0.3157	✓	-2.04
2026-09-25	oos	0.10542	0.103699	-1.63%	0.09368	-11.14%	0.0917	✓	-2.03
2026-09-24	oos	0.10401	0.102279	-1.66%	0.095145	-8.52%	0.0612	✓	-2.02
2026-09-23	oos	0.10388	0.10205	-1.76%	0.10818	+4.14%	0.0385	✗	-2.02
2026-09-22	oos	0.094815	0.093167	-1.74%	0.12674	+33.67%	0.2492	✗	-1.94
2026-09-21	oos	0.10284	0.101566	-1.24%	0.123535	+20.12%	0.1226	✗	-1.98
2026-09-20	oos	0.11312	0.110634	-2.20%	0.15819	+39.84%	0.4427	✗	-2.13
2026-09-19	oos	0.11891	0.116398	-2.11%	0.127905	+7.56%	0.1768	✗	-2.15
2026-09-18	oos	0.1196	0.11704	-2.14%	0.10542	-11.86%	0.0208	✓	-2.15
2026-09-17	oos	0.12931	0.124724	-3.55%	0.10401	-19.57%	0.2817	✓	1.00
2026-09-16	oos	0.14044	0.135075	-3.82%	0.10388	-26.03%	0.3653	✓	1.00
2026-09-15	oos	0.129815	0.125051	-3.67%	0.094815	-26.96%	0.4082	✓	1.00
2026-09-14	oos	0.15573	0.150662	-3.25%	0.10284	-33.96%	0.4842	✓	1.00
2026-09-13	oos	0.156615	0.150683	-3.79%	0.11312	-27.77%	0.3420	✓	1.00
2026-09-12	oos	0.18555	0.176722	-4.76%	0.11891	-35.91%	0.4463	✓	1.00
2026-09-11	oos	0.196105	0.185246	-5.54%	0.1196	-39.01%	0.4839	✓	1.00
2026-09-10	oos	0.18591	0.174667	-6.05%	0.12931	-30.44%	0.2982	✓	1.00
2026-09-09	oos	0.1367	0.132273	-3.24%	0.14044	+2.74%	0.0876	✗	1.00
2026-09-08	oos	0.13717	0.132313	-3.54%	0.129815	-5.36%	0.0181	✓	1.00
2026-09-07	oos	0.117485	0.114242	-2.76%	0.15573	+32.55%	0.3215	✗	1.00
2026-09-06	oos	0.102915	0.101213	-1.65%	0.156615	+52.18%	0.4816	✗	1.00
2026-09-05	oos	0.07698	0.076592	-0.50%	0.18555	+141.04%	0.9175	✗	1.00
2026-09-04	oos	0.07564	0.07529	-0.46%	0.196105	+159.26%	0.9887	✗	1.00
2026-09-03	oos	0.07329	0.073273	-0.02%	0.18591	+153.66%	0.9910	✗	1.00
2026-09-02	oos	0.07012	0.069567	-0.79%	0.1367	+94.95%	0.6629	✗	1.00
2026-09-01	oos	0.06978	0.06925	-0.76%	0.13717	+96.57%	0.6700	✗	1.00
2026-08-31	oos	0.06946	0.069145	-0.45%	0.117485	+69.14%	0.5234	✗	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.07144	0.070918	-0.73%	0.102915	+44.06%	0.3385	✗	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.07166	0.071225	-0.61%	0.07698	+7.42%	0.0575	✗	1.00
2026-08-28	oos	0.07463	0.073869	-1.02%	0.07564	+1.35%	0.0004	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.