SWM

Swarm · · gru_s9

token id: #257
symbol: SWM
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-19
predictions: 168

Track record at +1d

assessed

55

of 56 predictions shown

direction hit

45.5%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0727

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0066

actual +0.0044

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	0.090935	0.0906	-0.37%	–	pending	–	–	-1.55
2026-10-21	oos	0.090825	0.090557	-0.30%	0.090935	+0.12%	0.0077	✗	-1.55
2026-10-20	oos	0.091445	0.091164	-0.31%	0.090825	-0.68%	0.0166	✗	-1.56
2026-10-19	oos	0.09194	0.091612	-0.36%	0.091445	-0.54%	0.0192	✗	-1.57
2026-10-18	oos	0.093595	0.0932	-0.42%	0.09194	-1.77%	0.0169	✓	-1.58
2026-10-17	oos	0.09361	0.093191	-0.45%	0.093595	-0.02%	0.0164	✗	-1.58
2026-10-16	oos	0.09504	0.094573	-0.49%	0.09361	-1.50%	0.0125	✓	-1.58
2026-10-15	oos	0.08869	0.088399	-0.33%	0.09504	+7.16%	0.0606	✗	-1.55
2026-10-14	oos	0.089875	0.089572	-0.34%	0.08869	-1.32%	0.0007	✓	-1.55
2026-10-13	oos	0.10361	0.102934	-0.65%	0.089875	-13.26%	0.1672	✓	-1.69
2026-10-12	oos	0.100975	0.100323	-0.65%	0.10361	+2.61%	0.0606	✗	-1.72
2026-10-11	oos	0.10023	0.099693	-0.54%	0.100975	+0.74%	0.0281	✓	-1.75
2026-10-10	oos	0.100065	0.099454	-0.61%	0.10023	+0.16%	0.0239	✗	-1.75
2026-10-09	oos	0.09889	0.098334	-0.56%	0.100065	+1.19%	0.0252	✗	-1.75
2026-10-08	oos	0.099015	0.098409	-0.61%	0.09889	-0.13%	0.0232	✗	-1.76
2026-10-07	oos	0.096365	0.095889	-0.49%	0.099015	+2.75%	0.0016	✓	-1.76
2026-10-06	oos	0.098365	0.097931	-0.44%	0.096365	-2.03%	0.0653	✓	-1.83
2026-10-05	oos	0.084465	0.084228	-0.28%	0.098365	+16.46%	0.1508	✗	-1.78
2026-10-04	oos	0.092855	0.092564	-0.31%	0.084465	-9.04%	0.1078	✓	-1.84
2026-10-03	oos	0.090795	0.090483	-0.34%	0.092855	+2.27%	0.0649	✗	-1.89
2026-10-02	oos	0.09368	0.093338	-0.36%	0.090795	-3.08%	0.0223	✓	-1.89
2026-10-01	oos	0.095145	0.094816	-0.35%	0.09368	-1.54%	0.0198	✓	-1.90
2026-09-30	oos	0.10818	0.107781	-0.37%	0.095145	-12.05%	0.0962	✓	-1.86
2026-09-29	oos	0.12674	0.126064	-0.53%	0.10818	-14.64%	0.1549	✓	-1.89
2026-09-28	oos	0.123535	0.122905	-0.51%	0.12674	+2.59%	0.0348	✗	-1.89
2026-09-27	oos	0.15819	0.156336	-1.17%	0.123535	-21.91%	0.2605	✓	-2.09
2026-09-26	oos	0.127905	0.127076	-0.65%	0.15819	+23.68%	0.2201	✗	-2.04
2026-09-25	oos	0.10542	0.10496	-0.44%	0.127905	+21.33%	0.2055	✗	-2.03
2026-09-24	oos	0.10401	0.103575	-0.42%	0.10542	+1.36%	0.0106	✗	-2.02
2026-09-23	oos	0.10388	0.103438	-0.43%	0.10401	+0.13%	0.0057	✗	-2.02
2026-09-22	oos	0.094815	0.094477	-0.36%	0.10388	+9.56%	0.0534	✗	-1.94
2026-09-21	oos	0.10284	0.102593	-0.24%	0.094815	-7.80%	0.0879	✓	-1.98
2026-09-20	oos	0.11312	0.112573	-0.48%	0.10284	-9.09%	0.0479	✗	-2.13
2026-09-19	oos	0.11891	0.118346	-0.47%	0.11312	-4.87%	0.0471	✓	-2.15
2026-09-18	oos	0.1196	0.119045	-0.46%	0.11891	-0.58%	0.0084	✗	-2.15
2026-09-17	oos	0.12931	0.128228	-0.84%	0.1196	-7.51%	0.1273	✓	1.00
2026-09-16	oos	0.14044	0.139035	-1.00%	0.12931	-7.93%	0.0752	✓	1.00
2026-09-15	oos	0.129815	0.1287	-0.86%	0.14044	+8.18%	0.0799	✗	1.00
2026-09-14	oos	0.15573	0.15422	-0.97%	0.129815	-16.64%	0.1386	✓	1.00
2026-09-13	oos	0.156615	0.15482	-1.15%	0.15573	-0.57%	0.0119	✓	1.00
2026-09-12	oos	0.18555	0.182238	-1.78%	0.156615	-15.59%	0.1455	✓	1.00
2026-09-11	oos	0.196105	0.191515	-2.34%	0.18555	-5.38%	0.0323	✓	1.00
2026-09-10	oos	0.18591	0.180764	-2.77%	0.196105	+5.48%	0.0727	✗	1.00
2026-09-09	oos	0.1367	0.134714	-1.45%	0.18591	+36.00%	0.3447	✗	1.00
2026-09-08	oos	0.13717	0.134798	-1.73%	0.1367	-0.34%	0.0161	✓	1.00
2026-09-07	oos	0.117485	0.115772	-1.46%	0.13717	+16.76%	0.1778	✗	1.00
2026-09-06	oos	0.102915	0.101937	-0.95%	0.117485	+14.16%	0.1576	✗	1.00
2026-09-05	oos	0.07698	0.07676	-0.29%	0.102915	+33.69%	0.2869	✗	1.00
2026-09-04	oos	0.07564	0.075431	-0.28%	0.07698	+1.77%	0.0184	✗	1.00
2026-09-03	oos	0.07329	0.073195	-0.13%	0.07564	+3.21%	0.0526	✗	1.00
2026-09-02	oos	0.07012	0.069912	-0.30%	0.07329	+4.52%	0.0027	✓	1.00
2026-09-01	oos	0.06978	0.069566	-0.31%	0.07012	+0.49%	0.0091	✗	1.00
2026-08-31	oos	0.06946	0.069302	-0.23%	0.06978	+0.46%	0.0218	✗	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.07144	0.071188	-0.35%	0.06946	-2.77%	0.0361	✓	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.07166	0.071406	-0.35%	0.07144	-0.31%	0.0078	✗	1.00
2026-08-28	oos	0.07463	0.074159	-0.63%	0.07166	-3.98%	0.0393	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.