DRV

Derive · Ethereum · gru_s9

token id: #111
symbol: DRV
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0xb1d1eae60eea9525032a6dcb4c1ce336a1de71be
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-05-28
predictions: 417

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +1d

assessed

138

of 139 predictions shown

direction hit

58.7%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0533

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0097

actual +0.0087

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	0.40159	0.399402	-0.54%	–	pending	–	–	1.41
2026-10-21	oos	0.402115	0.399965	-0.53%	0.40159	-0.13%	0.0008	✓	1.42
2026-10-20	oos	0.398745	0.396783	-0.49%	0.402115	+0.85%	0.0052	✓	1.43
2026-10-19	oos	0.39882	0.397003	-0.46%	0.398745	-0.02%	0.0148	✓	1.43
2026-10-18	oos	0.38187	0.380681	-0.31%	0.39882	+4.44%	0.0495	✗	1.41
2026-10-17	oos	0.403015	0.400892	-0.53%	0.38187	-5.25%	0.0594	✓	1.41
2026-10-16	oos	0.387205	0.385634	-0.41%	0.403015	+4.08%	0.0462	✗	1.42
2026-10-15	oos	0.41127	0.408867	-0.58%	0.387205	-5.85%	0.0439	✓	1.39
2026-10-14	oos	0.416385	0.414147	-0.54%	0.41127	-1.23%	0.0164	✓	1.39
2026-10-13	oos	0.450845	0.447093	-0.83%	0.416385	-7.64%	0.0453	✓	1.38
2026-10-12	oos	0.4408	0.437159	-0.83%	0.450845	+2.28%	0.0077	✓	1.40
2026-10-11	oos	0.49633	0.490668	-1.14%	0.4408	-11.19%	0.0705	✓	1.57
2026-10-10	oos	0.538615	0.5295	-1.69%	0.49633	-7.85%	0.0795	✓	1.61
2026-10-09	oos	0.515775	0.504455	-2.19%	0.538615	+4.43%	0.0584	✗	1.61
2026-10-08	oos	0.436745	0.429343	-1.69%	0.515775	+18.10%	0.1672	✗	1.57
2026-10-07	oos	0.373545	0.37043	-0.83%	0.436745	+16.92%	0.1967	✗	1.67
2026-10-06	oos	0.407595	0.403153	-1.09%	0.373545	-8.35%	0.0325	✓	1.63
2026-10-05	oos	0.41208	0.406947	-1.25%	0.407595	-1.09%	0.0056	✓	1.63
2026-10-04	oos	0.41695	0.411035	-1.42%	0.41208	-1.17%	0.0169	✗	1.63
2026-10-03	oos	0.38453	0.379656	-1.27%	0.41695	+8.43%	0.0604	✗	1.61
2026-10-02	oos	0.39644	0.390553	-1.48%	0.38453	-3.00%	0.0201	✓	1.62
2026-10-01	oos	0.395175	0.388436	-1.71%	0.39644	+0.32%	0.0269	✗	1.61
2026-09-30	oos	0.38983	0.383312	-1.67%	0.395175	+1.37%	0.0060	✓	1.60
2026-09-29	oos	0.381685	0.374998	-1.75%	0.38983	+2.13%	0.0404	✗	1.59
2026-09-28	oos	0.36952	0.363679	-1.58%	0.381685	+3.29%	0.0450	✗	1.54
2026-09-27	oos	0.43524	0.424062	-2.57%	0.36952	-15.10%	0.1211	✓	1.38
2026-09-26	oos	0.412955	0.403599	-2.27%	0.43524	+5.40%	0.0747	✗	1.39
2026-09-25	oos	0.44425	0.431794	-2.80%	0.412955	-7.04%	0.0498	✓	1.34
2026-09-24	oos	0.45364	0.438168	-3.41%	0.44425	-2.07%	0.0184	✓	1.33
2026-09-23	oos	0.48606	0.463961	-4.55%	0.45364	-6.67%	0.0226	✓	1.32
2026-09-22	oos	0.436315	0.418154	-4.16%	0.48606	+11.40%	0.1802	✗	1.39
2026-09-21	oos	0.4043	0.387987	-4.03%	0.436315	+7.92%	0.1239	✗	1.42
2026-09-20	oos	0.391515	0.375234	-4.16%	0.4043	+3.27%	0.0256	✓	1.55
2026-09-19	oos	0.446505	0.42029	-5.87%	0.391515	-12.32%	0.0695	✓	1.51
2026-09-18	oos	0.29519	0.283276	-4.04%	0.446505	+51.26%	0.4483	✗	1.53
2026-09-17	oos	0.25509	0.24614	-3.51%	0.29519	+15.72%	0.0984	✗	1.45
2026-09-16	oos	0.24457	0.233605	-4.48%	0.25509	+4.30%	0.0841	✗	1.44
2026-09-15	oos	0.13705	0.13675	-0.22%	0.24457	+78.45%	0.5713	✗	1.36
2026-09-14	oos	0.140985	0.140677	-0.22%	0.13705	-2.79%	0.0203	✗	1.38
2026-09-13	oos	0.14356	0.143217	-0.24%	0.140985	-1.79%	0.0406	✓	1.40
2026-09-12	oos	0.14992	0.149563	-0.24%	0.14356	-4.24%	0.0326	✓	1.39
2026-09-11	oos	0.148505	0.148233	-0.18%	0.14992	+0.95%	0.0103	✗	1.38
2026-09-10	oos	0.147705	0.147459	-0.17%	0.148505	+0.54%	0.0049	✓	1.37
2026-09-09	oos	0.154095	0.153831	-0.17%	0.147705	-4.15%	0.0100	✓	1.36
2026-09-08	oos	0.16393	0.163366	-0.34%	0.154095	-6.00%	0.0556	✓	1.36
2026-09-07	oos	0.1575	0.157296	-0.13%	0.16393	+4.08%	0.0526	✗	1.39
2026-09-06	oos	0.16514	0.164655	-0.29%	0.1575	-4.63%	0.0226	✓	1.39
2026-09-05	oos	0.17224	0.170303	-1.12%	0.16514	-4.12%	0.0396	✓	1.38
2026-09-04	oos	0.14964	0.149377	-0.18%	0.17224	+15.10%	0.1396	✗	1.46
2026-09-03	oos	0.15856	0.157772	-0.50%	0.14964	-5.63%	0.0247	✓	1.43
2026-09-02	oos	0.14371	0.143354	-0.25%	0.15856	+10.33%	0.0255	✗	1.51
2026-09-01	oos	0.14284	0.142464	-0.26%	0.14371	+0.61%	0.0105	✗	1.51
2026-08-31	oos	0.153755	0.153017	-0.48%	0.14284	-7.10%	0.0501	✓	1.26
2026-08-30	oos	0.15632	0.155251	-0.68%	0.153755	-1.64%	0.0242	✓	1.26
2026-08-29	oos	0.1719	0.169652	-1.31%	0.15632	-9.06%	0.0739	✓	1.08
2026-08-28	oos	0.16944	0.166722	-1.60%	0.1719	+1.45%	0.0251	✗	1.08
2026-08-27	oos	0.17649	0.172489	-2.27%	0.16944	-3.99%	0.0151	✓	1.07
2026-08-26	oos	0.166915	0.163047	-2.32%	0.17649	+5.74%	0.0626	✗	1.06
2026-08-25	oos	0.14804	0.145725	-1.56%	0.166915	+12.75%	0.1292	✗	1.04
2026-08-24	oos	0.163815	0.158515	-3.24%	0.14804	-9.63%	0.0624	✓	1.03
2026-08-23	oos	0.13109	0.128985	-1.61%	0.163815	+24.96%	0.2239	✗	0.95
2026-08-22	oos	0.11334	0.112358	-0.87%	0.13109	+15.66%	0.1462	✗	0.92
2026-08-21	oos	0.11888	0.116718	-1.82%	0.11334	-4.66%	0.0145	✓	0.91
2026-08-20	oos	0.098475	0.098156	-0.32%	0.11888	+20.72%	0.1452	✗	0.66
2026-08-19	oos	0.09869	0.098233	-0.46%	0.098475	-0.22%	0.0354	✓	0.73
2026-08-18	oos	0.093475	0.093148	-0.35%	0.09869	+5.58%	0.0080	✗	0.72
2026-08-17	oos	0.095765	0.0953	-0.49%	0.093475	-2.39%	0.0216	✓	0.73
2026-08-16	oos	0.10351	0.102123	-1.34%	0.095765	-7.48%	0.0858	✓	0.83
2026-08-15	oos	0.092975	0.092818	-0.17%	0.10351	+11.33%	0.1115	✗	0.84
2026-08-14	oos	0.09274	0.09259	-0.16%	0.092975	+0.25%	0.0036	✗	0.84
2026-08-13	oos	0.09498	0.094792	-0.20%	0.09274	-2.36%	0.0160	✓	0.83
2026-08-12	oos	0.09864	0.098357	-0.29%	0.09498	-3.71%	0.0351	✓	0.84
2026-08-11	oos	0.097635	0.097335	-0.31%	0.09864	+1.03%	0.0149	✗	0.84
2026-08-10	oos	0.093365	0.093188	-0.19%	0.097635	+4.57%	0.0516	✗	0.84
2026-08-09	oos	0.09707	0.096834	-0.24%	0.093365	-3.82%	0.0244	✓	0.83
2026-08-08	oos	0.09736	0.097112	-0.25%	0.09707	-0.30%	0.0003	✓	0.83
2026-08-07	oos	0.096885	0.09664	-0.25%	0.09736	+0.49%	0.0072	✗	0.83
2026-08-06	oos	0.097805	0.097529	-0.28%	0.096885	-0.94%	0.0147	✓	0.84
2026-08-05	oos	0.100875	0.1005	-0.37%	0.097805	-3.04%	0.0228	✓	0.83
2026-08-04	oos	0.10167	0.101176	-0.49%	0.100875	-0.78%	0.0102	✓	0.84
2026-08-03	oos	0.09716	0.096882	-0.29%	0.10167	+4.64%	0.0407	✗	0.83
2026-08-02	oos	0.0997	0.099369	-0.33%	0.09716	-2.55%	0.0220	✓	0.83
2026-08-01	oos	0.105755	0.105112	-0.61%	0.0997	-5.73%	0.0630	✓	0.87
2026-07-31	oos	0.116685	0.114923	-1.51%	0.105755	-9.37%	0.0823	✓	0.88
2026-07-30	oos	0.094575	0.094307	-0.28%	0.116685	+23.38%	0.2467	✗	1.14
2026-07-29	oos	0.09668	0.09641	-0.28%	0.094575	-2.18%	0.0341	✓	1.16
2026-07-28	oos	0.10316	0.102833	-0.32%	0.09668	-6.28%	0.0626	✓	1.17
2026-07-27	oos	0.105835	0.105462	-0.35%	0.10316	-2.53%	0.0249	✓	1.18
2026-07-26	oos	0.114575	0.114088	-0.43%	0.105835	-7.63%	0.0465	✓	1.12
2026-07-25	oos	0.113675	0.113183	-0.43%	0.114575	+0.79%	0.0061	✓	1.14
2026-07-24	oos	0.11498	0.114482	-0.43%	0.113675	-1.13%	0.0108	✓	1.14
2026-07-23	oos	0.119115	0.118552	-0.47%	0.11498	-3.47%	0.0137	✓	1.13
2026-07-22	oos	0.121595	0.120992	-0.50%	0.119115	-2.04%	0.0020	✓	1.12
2026-07-21	oos	0.11994	0.119364	-0.48%	0.121595	+1.38%	0.0258	✗	1.12
2026-07-20	oos	0.123715	0.123052	-0.54%	0.11994	-3.05%	0.0490	✓	1.18
2026-07-19	oos	0.12307	0.122414	-0.53%	0.123715	+0.52%	0.0008	✓	1.19
2026-07-18	oos	0.1261	0.125327	-0.61%	0.12307	-2.40%	0.0161	✓	1.19
2026-07-17	oos	0.129925	0.129057	-0.67%	0.1261	-2.94%	0.0405	✓	1.24
2026-07-16	oos	0.135285	0.134164	-0.83%	0.129925	-3.96%	0.0345	✓	1.25
2026-07-15	oos	0.145845	0.143528	-1.59%	0.135285	-7.24%	0.0413	✓	1.21
2026-07-14	oos	0.1552	0.150383	-3.10%	0.145845	-6.03%	0.0256	✓	1.20
2026-07-13	oos	0.116895	0.116316	-0.50%	0.1552	+32.77%	0.2585	✗	0.70
2026-07-12	oos	0.12333	0.12243	-0.73%	0.116895	-5.22%	0.0311	✓	0.65
2026-07-11	oos	0.12402	0.123073	-0.76%	0.12333	-0.56%	0.0024	✓	0.65
2026-07-10	oos	0.11772	0.116764	-0.81%	0.12402	+5.35%	0.0639	✗	0.66
2026-07-09	oos	0.11437	0.113772	-0.52%	0.11772	+2.93%	0.0244	✗	0.65
2026-07-08	oos	0.10905	0.108592	-0.42%	0.11437	+4.88%	0.0425	✗	0.62
2026-07-07	oos	0.11054	0.109914	-0.57%	0.10905	-1.35%	0.0027	✓	0.61
2026-07-06	oos	0.11365	0.112928	-0.64%	0.11054	-2.74%	0.0150	✓	0.60
2026-07-05	oos	0.11218	0.111547	-0.56%	0.11365	+1.31%	0.0147	✗	0.60
2026-07-04	oos	0.10767	0.107052	-0.57%	0.11218	+4.19%	0.0422	✗	0.58
2026-07-03	oos	0.11031	0.109504	-0.73%	0.10767	-2.39%	0.0224	✓	0.61
2026-07-02	oos	0.112105	0.111309	-0.71%	0.11031	-1.60%	0.0201	✓	0.66
2026-07-01	oos	0.10732	0.10639	-0.87%	0.112105	+4.46%	0.0364	✗	0.64
2026-06-30	oos	0.11361	0.112408	-1.06%	0.10732	-5.54%	0.0658	✓	0.80
2026-06-29	oos	0.10568	0.105048	-0.60%	0.11361	+7.50%	0.1036	✗	0.91
2026-06-28	oos	0.10167	0.100952	-0.71%	0.10568	+3.94%	0.0354	✗	0.90
2026-06-27	oos	0.08732	0.087183	-0.16%	0.10167	+16.43%	0.1607	✗	0.91
2026-06-26	oos	0.08296	0.082858	-0.12%	0.08732	+5.26%	0.0536	✗	1.00
2026-06-25	oos	0.08304	0.082942	-0.12%	0.08296	-0.10%	0.0048	✓	1.00
2026-06-24	oos	0.082775	0.08266	-0.14%	0.08304	+0.32%	0.0258	✗	1.00
2026-06-23	oos	0.08616	0.086008	-0.18%	0.082775	-3.93%	0.0114	✓	1.00
2026-06-22	oos	0.087275	0.087101	-0.20%	0.08616	-1.28%	0.0098	✗	1.00
2026-06-21	oos	0.090795	0.090612	-0.20%	0.087275	-3.88%	0.0488	✓	1.00
2026-06-20	oos	0.098535	0.098269	-0.27%	0.090795	-7.86%	0.0636	✓	1.00
2026-06-19	oos	0.09513	0.0949	-0.24%	0.098535	+3.58%	0.0259	✗	1.00
2026-06-18	oos	0.09407	0.09385	-0.23%	0.09513	+1.13%	0.0041	✗	1.00
2026-06-17	oos	0.09792	0.097614	-0.31%	0.09407	-3.93%	0.0124	✓	1.00
2026-06-16	oos	0.10043	0.099998	-0.43%	0.09792	-2.50%	0.0030	✓	1.00
2026-06-15	oos	0.102	0.101579	-0.41%	0.10043	-1.54%	0.0014	✓	1.00
2026-06-14	oos	0.10087	0.10046	-0.41%	0.102	+1.12%	0.0066	✗	1.00
2026-06-13	oos	0.10077	0.100395	-0.37%	0.10087	+0.10%	0.0149	✓	1.00
2026-06-12	oos	0.10217	0.101779	-0.38%	0.10077	-1.37%	0.0239	✓	1.00
2026-06-11	oos	0.10434	0.103863	-0.46%	0.10217	-2.08%	0.0160	✓	1.00
2026-06-10	oos	0.0986	0.09835	-0.25%	0.10434	+5.82%	0.0253	✗	1.00
2026-06-09	oos	0.10506	0.104654	-0.39%	0.0986	-6.15%	0.0557	✓	1.00
2026-06-08	oos	0.11139	0.11044	-0.85%	0.10506	-5.68%	0.0279	✓	1.00
2026-06-07	oos	0.10365	0.103234	-0.40%	0.11139	+7.47%	0.0798	✗	1.00
2026-06-06	oos	0.09153	0.091514	-0.02%	0.10365	+13.24%	0.0850	✗	1.00