BTW
Bitway · Ethereum · gru_s9
- token id
- #40
- symbol
- BTW
- variant
- –
- chain
- Ethereum
- address
- 0x3a63de3572c69a1307ff08394f3ee7702c16d25d
- cohort
- datapoint (mid-window listing)
- first bar
- 2026-08-24
- predictions
- 153
Track record at +1d
assessed
50
of 51 predictions shown
direction hit
38.0%
alpha space; 50% is a coin flip
MAE (alpha)
0.1156
mean absolute log-return error
mean pred / actual
-0.0141
actual +0.0228
History
| as of | split | anchor px | pred px | pred Δ | actual px | actual Δ | alpha err | hit | β90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | oos | 1.6621 | 1.6392 | -1.37% | – | pending | – | – | -1.63 |
| 2026-10-21 | oos | 1.6423 | 1.6233 | -1.16% | 1.6621 | +1.20% | 0.0274 | ✗ | -1.63 |
| 2026-10-20 | oos | 2.0432 | 2.0148 | -1.39% | 1.6423 | -19.62% | 0.1851 | ✓ | -1.48 |
| 2026-10-19 | oos | 1.9664 | 1.9393 | -1.38% | 2.0432 | +3.91% | 0.0723 | ✗ | -1.50 |
| 2026-10-18 | oos | 2.4152 | 2.3694 | -1.89% | 1.9664 | -18.58% | 0.1896 | ✓ | -1.54 |
| 2026-10-17 | oos | 2.4383 | 2.3767 | -2.53% | 2.4152 | -0.95% | 0.0278 | ✗ | -1.53 |
| 2026-10-16 | oos | 1.9279 | 1.892 | -1.86% | 2.4383 | +26.48% | 0.2515 | ✗ | -1.51 |
| 2026-10-15 | oos | 1.8166 | 1.7919 | -1.36% | 1.9279 | +6.12% | 0.0617 | ✗ | -1.50 |
| 2026-10-14 | oos | 2.3803 | 2.3097 | -2.97% | 1.8166 | -23.68% | 0.2306 | ✓ | -1.40 |
| 2026-10-13 | oos | 2.0884 | 2.0234 | -3.11% | 2.3803 | +13.98% | 0.1378 | ✗ | -1.32 |
| 2026-10-12 | oos | 1.7495 | 1.7099 | -2.27% | 2.0884 | +19.36% | 0.2242 | ✗ | -1.47 |
| 2026-10-11 | oos | 1.6258 | 1.5942 | -1.94% | 1.7495 | +7.61% | 0.0589 | ✗ | -1.46 |
| 2026-10-10 | oos | 1.5842 | 1.5587 | -1.61% | 1.6258 | +2.62% | 0.0556 | ✗ | -1.46 |
| 2026-10-09 | oos | 1.5753 | 1.5477 | -1.75% | 1.5842 | +0.57% | 0.0298 | ✗ | -1.46 |
| 2026-10-08 | oos | 1.3928 | 1.3726 | -1.45% | 1.5753 | +13.10% | 0.1535 | ✗ | -1.52 |
| 2026-10-07 | oos | 1.2975 | 1.2801 | -1.35% | 1.3928 | +7.34% | 0.0556 | ✗ | -1.50 |
| 2026-10-06 | oos | 1.2135 | 1.2014 | -1.00% | 1.2975 | +6.93% | 0.0368 | ✗ | -1.50 |
| 2026-10-05 | oos | 1.2336 | 1.2196 | -1.14% | 1.2135 | -1.63% | 0.0087 | ✓ | -1.51 |
| 2026-10-04 | oos | 1.2458 | 1.2305 | -1.23% | 1.2336 | -0.98% | 0.0110 | ✓ | -1.55 |
| 2026-10-03 | oos | 1.0377 | 1.0305 | -0.70% | 1.2458 | +20.05% | 0.2263 | ✗ | -1.77 |
| 2026-10-02 | oos | 1.3815 | 1.3618 | -1.43% | 1.0377 | -24.89% | 0.2669 | ✓ | -1.75 |
| 2026-10-01 | oos | 1.4183 | 1.3948 | -1.65% | 1.3815 | -2.59% | 0.0168 | ✓ | -1.78 |
| 2026-09-30 | oos | 1.329 | 1.3058 | -1.74% | 1.4183 | +6.72% | 0.1108 | ✗ | -1.83 |
| 2026-09-29 | oos | 1.3887 | 1.3588 | -2.16% | 1.329 | -4.31% | 0.0240 | ✓ | -1.85 |
| 2026-09-28 | oos | 1.1192 | 1.1014 | -1.59% | 1.3887 | +24.08% | 0.2359 | ✗ | -1.85 |
| 2026-09-27 | oos | 1.2207 | 1.2003 | -1.67% | 1.1192 | -8.31% | 0.0937 | ✓ | -1.98 |
| 2026-09-26 | oos | 1.0015 | 0.990282 | -1.13% | 1.2207 | +21.88% | 0.2102 | ✗ | -1.96 |
| 2026-09-25 | oos | 1.3154 | 1.2722 | -3.28% | 1.0015 | -23.86% | 0.2318 | ✓ | -1.93 |
| 2026-09-24 | oos | 0.9544 | 0.940168 | -1.49% | 1.3154 | +37.82% | 0.3295 | ✗ | -1.82 |
| 2026-09-23 | oos | 1.0378 | 1.0145 | -2.25% | 0.9544 | -8.04% | 0.0609 | ✓ | -1.84 |
| 2026-09-22 | oos | 0.8978 | 0.885426 | -1.38% | 1.0378 | +15.59% | 0.1801 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-21 | oos | 0.8007 | 0.788494 | -1.52% | 0.8978 | +12.13% | 0.1344 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-20 | oos | 0.74705 | 0.735157 | -1.59% | 0.8007 | +7.18% | 0.0206 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-19 | oos | 0.5903 | 0.588047 | -0.38% | 0.74705 | +26.55% | 0.2402 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-18 | oos | 0.6302 | 0.627471 | -0.43% | 0.5903 | -6.33% | 0.0655 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-17 | oos | 0.7199 | 0.712258 | -1.06% | 0.6302 | -12.46% | 0.1800 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-16 | oos | 0.7502 | 0.73892 | -1.50% | 0.7199 | -4.04% | 0.0288 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-15 | oos | 0.70505 | 0.694285 | -1.53% | 0.7502 | +6.40% | 0.0701 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-14 | oos | 0.5826 | 0.577597 | -0.86% | 0.70505 | +21.02% | 0.2331 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-13 | oos | 0.73445 | 0.714124 | -2.77% | 0.5826 | -20.68% | 0.2213 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-12 | oos | 0.5503 | 0.545349 | -0.90% | 0.73445 | +33.46% | 0.3037 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-11 | oos | 0.5088 | 0.505573 | -0.63% | 0.5503 | +8.16% | 0.0841 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-10 | oos | 0.50005 | 0.49556 | -0.90% | 0.5088 | +1.75% | 0.0176 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-09 | oos | 0.4511 | 0.449533 | -0.35% | 0.50005 | +10.85% | 0.1291 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-08 | oos | 0.43775 | 0.436504 | -0.28% | 0.4511 | +3.05% | 0.0350 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-07 | oos | 0.45105 | 0.449265 | -0.40% | 0.43775 | -2.95% | 0.0178 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-06 | oos | 0.4474 | 0.446235 | -0.26% | 0.45105 | +0.82% | 0.0264 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-05 | oos | 0.4522 | 0.450773 | -0.32% | 0.4474 | -1.06% | 0.0138 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-04 | oos | 0.45655 | 0.454682 | -0.41% | 0.4522 | -0.95% | 0.0074 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-03 | oos | 0.4544 | 0.45134 | -0.67% | 0.45655 | +0.47% | 0.0312 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-02 | oos | 0.4896 | 0.484343 | -1.07% | 0.4544 | -7.19% | 0.1137 | ✓ | 1.00 |