ASTEROID1

? · · gru_s9

token id: #794
symbol: ASTEROID1
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-04-25
predictions: 516

Track record at +7d

assessed

165

of 172 predictions shown

direction hit

66.1%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.2424

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0200

actual -0.0908

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	0.001541	0.001509	-2.10%	–	pending	–	–	1.90
2026-10-21	oos	0.001549	0.001516	-2.16%	–	pending	–	–	1.65
2026-10-20	oos	0.001259	0.001245	-1.11%	–	pending	–	–	1.54
2026-10-19	oos	0.001263	0.001248	-1.15%	–	pending	–	–	1.57
2026-10-18	oos	0.001148	0.001139	-0.84%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-17	oos	0.001229	0.001216	-1.11%	–	pending	–	–	1.71
2026-10-16	oos	0.001277	0.001259	-1.38%	–	pending	–	–	1.71
2026-10-15	oos	0.001258	0.001239	-1.49%	0.001541	+22.50%	0.1751	✗	1.70
2026-10-14	oos	0.001084	0.001076	-0.67%	0.001549	+42.96%	0.3143	✗	1.68
2026-10-13	oos	0.001144	0.001127	-1.46%	0.001259	+10.01%	0.1134	✗	1.65
2026-10-12	oos	0.001126	0.001114	-1.13%	0.001263	+12.12%	0.1238	✗	1.67
2026-10-11	oos	0.001367	0.001342	-1.77%	0.001148	-15.95%	0.1236	✓	1.60
2026-10-10	oos	0.001357	0.00133	-1.97%	0.001229	-9.40%	0.0476	✓	1.67
2026-10-09	oos	0.00123	0.001202	-2.27%	0.001277	+3.78%	0.0815	✗	1.68
2026-10-08	oos	0.001355	0.001325	-2.15%	0.001258	-7.12%	0.0610	✓	1.67
2026-10-07	oos	0.001445	0.001416	-2.02%	0.001084	-25.04%	0.2335	✓	1.65
2026-10-06	oos	0.001564	0.001549	-0.96%	0.001144	-26.85%	0.2554	✓	1.65
2026-10-05	oos	0.001631	0.001623	-0.54%	0.001126	-30.95%	0.2838	✓	1.70
2026-10-04	oos	0.001638	0.001633	-0.28%	0.001367	-16.55%	0.1192	✓	1.77
2026-10-03	oos	0.001698	0.00169	-0.48%	0.001357	-20.08%	0.1801	✓	1.80
2026-10-02	oos	0.001759	0.001746	-0.73%	0.00123	-30.07%	0.3083	✓	1.79
2026-10-01	oos	0.001888	0.001879	-0.50%	0.001355	-28.26%	0.2608	✓	1.75
2026-09-30	oos	0.001874	0.001861	-0.71%	0.001445	-22.87%	0.2464	✓	1.81
2026-09-29	oos	0.001798	0.001787	-0.59%	0.001564	-13.01%	0.1717	✓	1.70
2026-09-28	oos	0.001702	0.001692	-0.56%	0.001631	-4.14%	0.0823	✓	1.68
2026-09-27	oos	0.001905	0.001901	-0.19%	0.001638	-14.04%	0.1918	✓	1.77
2026-09-26	oos	0.001983	0.00198	-0.15%	0.001698	-14.37%	0.1604	✓	1.76
2026-09-25	oos	0.002018	0.002015	-0.17%	0.001759	-12.83%	0.1443	✓	1.78
2026-09-24	oos	0.002258	0.002244	-0.61%	0.001888	-16.39%	0.1825	✓	1.76
2026-09-23	oos	0.001934	0.001935	+0.05%	0.001874	-3.10%	0.0146	✗	1.78
2026-09-22	oos	0.002158	0.002157	-0.09%	0.001798	-16.70%	0.1281	✓	1.79
2026-09-21	oos	0.001744	0.001747	+0.18%	0.001702	-2.41%	0.0412	✓	1.83
2026-09-20	oos	0.0015	0.00149	-0.68%	0.001905	+27.00%	0.1738	✗	1.81
2026-09-19	oos	0.001787	0.00178	-0.40%	0.001983	+10.97%	0.0398	✗	1.78
2026-09-18	oos	0.001831	0.001823	-0.44%	0.002018	+10.21%	0.0308	✗	1.82
2026-09-17	oos	0.001605	0.001615	+0.59%	0.002258	+40.69%	0.1620	✓	1.73
2026-09-16	oos	0.001692	0.001698	+0.35%	0.001934	+14.30%	0.0439	✗	1.70
2026-09-15	oos	0.001676	0.001688	+0.73%	0.002158	+28.79%	0.0429	✓	1.54
2026-09-14	oos	0.001803	0.001794	-0.47%	0.001744	-3.25%	0.1797	✓	1.48
2026-09-13	oos	0.001903	0.001889	-0.74%	0.0015	-21.18%	0.3148	✓	1.52
2026-09-12	oos	0.001828	0.001809	-1.01%	0.001787	-2.24%	0.0908	✓	1.56
2026-09-11	oos	0.001956	0.001927	-1.48%	0.001831	-6.39%	0.1229	✓	1.55
2026-09-10	oos	0.002041	0.002004	-1.78%	0.001605	-21.34%	0.2182	✓	1.58
2026-09-09	oos	0.002186	0.00214	-2.08%	0.001692	-22.60%	0.1914	✓	1.58
2026-09-08	oos	0.00224	0.002192	-2.12%	0.001676	-25.16%	0.1977	✓	1.90
2026-09-07	oos	0.002308	0.002261	-2.06%	0.001803	-21.90%	0.2044	✓	1.88
2026-09-06	oos	0.002546	0.002495	-2.01%	0.001903	-25.26%	0.1820	✓	1.97
2026-09-05	oos	0.002485	0.002433	-2.06%	0.001828	-26.42%	0.2231	✓	1.92
2026-09-04	oos	0.003024	0.002945	-2.62%	0.001956	-35.33%	0.3491	✓	1.91
2026-09-03	oos	0.003109	0.003031	-2.52%	0.002041	-34.38%	0.2797	✓	1.94
2026-09-02	oos	0.002326	0.002269	-2.47%	0.002186	-6.02%	0.0601	✓	1.84
2026-09-01	oos	0.002382	0.002329	-2.22%	0.00224	-5.98%	0.0642	✓	1.85
2026-08-31	oos	0.002634	0.002586	-1.81%	0.002308	-12.38%	0.1255	✓	1.74
2026-08-30	oos	0.002947	0.002876	-2.40%	0.002546	-13.61%	0.1795	✓	1.70
2026-08-29	oos	0.002557	0.002525	-1.25%	0.002485	-2.84%	0.0516	✓	1.75
2026-08-28	oos	0.002101	0.002089	-0.56%	0.003024	+43.96%	0.3294	✗	1.74
2026-08-27	oos	0.002319	0.002316	-0.14%	0.003109	+34.09%	0.2739	✗	1.70
2026-08-26	oos	0.002166	0.002164	-0.11%	0.002326	+7.39%	0.1092	✗	1.68
2026-08-25	oos	0.001937	0.001937	-0.02%	0.002382	+22.97%	0.2315	✗	1.69
2026-08-24	oos	0.00227	0.002269	-0.03%	0.002634	+16.04%	0.1569	✗	1.49
2026-08-23	oos	0.00236	0.002354	-0.27%	0.002947	+24.87%	0.2261	✗	1.55
2026-08-22	oos	0.00264	0.00262	-0.76%	0.002557	-3.14%	0.0486	✓	1.59
2026-08-21	oos	0.002582	0.00257	-0.48%	0.002101	-18.63%	0.1913	✓	1.61
2026-08-20	oos	0.003052	0.002962	-2.96%	0.002319	-24.02%	0.4516	✓	2.18
2026-08-19	oos	0.002289	0.00223	-2.59%	0.002166	-5.37%	0.2649	✓	1.80
2026-08-18	oos	0.00195	0.00188	-3.57%	0.001937	-0.67%	0.2991	✓	1.69
2026-08-17	oos	0.001986	0.001916	-3.50%	0.00227	+14.30%	0.1669	✓	1.66
2026-08-16	oos	0.001873	0.001817	-3.01%	0.00236	+26.00%	0.0863	✓	1.64
2026-08-15	oos	0.001955	0.001897	-2.97%	0.00264	+35.04%	0.0009	✓	1.64
2026-08-14	oos	0.002087	0.002025	-2.98%	0.002582	+23.72%	0.1165	✓	1.65
2026-08-13	oos	0.00194	0.00189	-2.58%	0.003052	+57.32%	0.2462	✗	1.66
2026-08-12	oos	0.002211	0.002145	-2.97%	0.002289	+3.53%	0.0856	✓	1.69
2026-08-11	oos	0.002031	0.001975	-2.76%	0.00195	-3.99%	0.0428	✓	1.68
2026-08-10	oos	0.001751	0.001706	-2.56%	0.001986	+13.42%	0.1369	✗	1.71
2026-08-09	oos	0.001717	0.001675	-2.42%	0.001873	+9.09%	0.1646	✗	1.69
2026-08-08	oos	0.001589	0.001544	-2.84%	0.001955	+23.03%	0.2852	✗	1.66
2026-08-07	oos	0.001601	0.001554	-2.95%	0.002087	+30.36%	0.3403	✗	1.51
2026-08-06	oos	0.002119	0.002058	-2.88%	0.00194	-8.45%	0.0377	✓	1.61
2026-08-05	oos	0.001998	0.001938	-3.00%	0.002211	+10.66%	0.1611	✗	1.58
2026-08-04	oos	0.002382	0.002271	-4.65%	0.002031	-14.74%	0.0996	✓	1.51
2026-08-03	oos	0.001356	0.001311	-3.34%	0.001751	+29.13%	0.2797	✗	1.41
2026-08-02	oos	0.001354	0.001308	-3.39%	0.001717	+26.81%	0.2422	✗	1.41
2026-08-01	oos	0.001573	0.00153	-2.73%	0.001589	+1.02%	0.0143	✓	1.55
2026-07-31	oos	0.001676	0.001627	-2.95%	0.001601	-4.47%	0.0659	✓	1.55
2026-07-30	oos	0.001696	0.001641	-3.22%	0.002119	+24.94%	0.2658	✗	1.48
2026-07-29	oos	0.001747	0.001689	-3.33%	0.001998	+14.37%	0.1516	✗	1.50
2026-07-28	oos	0.001803	0.001745	-3.23%	0.002382	+32.11%	0.3067	✗	1.45
2026-07-27	oos	0.002076	0.001999	-3.72%	0.001356	-34.68%	0.3829	✓	1.44
2026-07-26	oos	0.002034	0.001967	-3.29%	0.001354	-33.43%	0.3310	✓	1.49
2026-07-25	oos	0.002304	0.002203	-4.36%	0.001573	-31.73%	0.2990	✓	1.58
2026-07-24	oos	0.002315	0.0022	-4.97%	0.001676	-27.60%	0.2443	✓	1.40
2026-07-23	oos	0.001482	0.001449	-2.19%	0.001696	+14.44%	0.1652	✗	1.61
2026-07-22	oos	0.00136	0.001335	-1.81%	0.001747	+28.46%	0.3250	✗	1.67
2026-07-21	oos	0.001551	0.001514	-2.41%	0.001803	+16.25%	0.2426	✗	1.65
2026-07-20	oos	0.001198	0.001175	-1.89%	0.002076	+73.29%	0.6035	✗	1.47
2026-07-19	oos	0.001223	0.001201	-1.82%	0.002034	+66.31%	0.5121	✗	1.47
2026-07-18	oos	0.001349	0.001324	-1.86%	0.002304	+70.79%	0.5655	✗	1.47
2026-07-17	oos	0.001424	0.001391	-2.31%	0.002315	+62.57%	0.5048	✗	1.51
2026-07-16	oos	0.001041	0.00102	-2.04%	0.001482	+42.36%	0.3449	✗	1.46
2026-07-15	oos	0.001046	0.001024	-2.12%	0.00136	+30.02%	0.2531	✗	1.47
2026-07-14	oos	0.001158	0.001136	-1.88%	0.001551	+33.94%	0.2771	✗	1.47
2026-07-13	oos	0.001046	0.001033	-1.22%	0.001198	+14.53%	0.0849	✗	1.36
2026-07-12	oos	0.001205	0.001184	-1.72%	0.001223	+1.49%	0.0132	✓	1.29
2026-07-11	oos	0.001323	0.001298	-1.86%	0.001349	+1.97%	0.0176	✓	1.30
2026-07-10	oos	0.001144	0.001116	-2.42%	0.001424	+24.48%	0.2483	✗	1.32
2026-07-09	oos	0.001093	0.00107	-2.13%	0.001041	-4.76%	0.0393	✓	1.28
2026-07-08	oos	0.001003	0.000992844	-1.01%	0.001046	+4.29%	0.0045	✓	1.22
2026-07-07	oos	0.001139	0.001102	-3.27%	0.001158	+1.67%	0.0193	✓	1.17
2026-07-06	oos	0.001392	0.001352	-2.88%	0.001046	-24.86%	0.2257	✓	1.12
2026-07-05	oos	0.001462	0.001421	-2.78%	0.001205	-17.58%	0.1680	✓	1.13
2026-07-04	oos	0.001537	0.001497	-2.59%	0.001323	-13.92%	0.1361	✓	1.15
2026-07-03	oos	0.001855	0.00183	-1.35%	0.001144	-38.33%	0.5011	✓	1.24
2026-07-02	oos	0.001555	0.00151	-2.87%	0.001093	-29.71%	0.3530	✓	1.09
2026-07-01	oos	0.001815	0.00179	-1.39%	0.001003	-44.74%	0.6272	✓	1.29
2026-06-30	oos	0.001818	0.001794	-1.33%	0.001139	-37.35%	0.5573	✓	1.31
2026-06-29	oos	0.002226	0.002205	-0.93%	0.001392	-37.47%	0.5312	✓	1.15
2026-06-28	oos	0.002274	0.002252	-0.96%	0.001462	-35.71%	0.5097	✓	1.16
2026-06-27	oos	0.002491	0.002465	-1.05%	0.001537	-38.30%	0.5313	✓	1.15
2026-06-26	oos	0.002527	0.002497	-1.19%	0.001855	-26.59%	0.3445	✓	1.15
2026-06-25	oos	0.002311	0.002282	-1.27%	0.001555	-32.71%	0.4159	✓	1.11
2026-06-24	oos	0.002585	0.002547	-1.47%	0.001815	-29.79%	0.3211	✓	1.05
2026-06-23	oos	0.002713	0.002666	-1.74%	0.001818	-32.99%	0.3116	✓	1.05
2026-06-22	oos	0.003108	0.003051	-1.83%	0.002226	-28.38%	0.2565	✓	0.96
2026-06-21	oos	0.003271	0.00321	-1.87%	0.002274	-30.48%	0.2835	✓	1.00
2026-06-20	oos	0.003663	0.003587	-2.09%	0.002491	-32.00%	0.2990	✓	0.95
2026-06-19	oos	0.003814	0.003726	-2.31%	0.002527	-33.74%	0.3333	✓	0.98
2026-06-18	oos	0.004509	0.004352	-3.48%	0.002311	-48.75%	0.5765	✓	1.09
2026-06-17	oos	0.003947	0.003848	-2.52%	0.002585	-34.51%	0.3275	✓	1.27
2026-06-16	oos	0.003759	0.003672	-2.32%	0.002713	-27.83%	0.2407	✓	1.34
2026-06-15	oos	0.003974	0.003865	-2.74%	0.003108	-21.79%	0.1707	✓	1.33
2026-06-14	oos	0.003552	0.003471	-2.28%	0.003271	-7.91%	0.0113	✓	1.25
2026-06-13	oos	0.003566	0.003479	-2.43%	0.003663	+2.72%	0.0555	✗	1.27
2026-06-12	oos	0.003336	0.003259	-2.31%	0.003814	+14.33%	0.1585	✗	1.21
2026-06-11	oos	0.004303	0.004123	-4.18%	0.004509	+4.79%	0.1031	✗	1.26
2026-06-10	oos	0.002921	0.002883	-1.31%	0.003947	+35.12%	0.2939	✗	0.43
2026-06-09	oos	0.002752	0.00273	-0.78%	0.003759	+36.62%	0.2939	✗	0.42
2026-06-08	oos	0.0034	0.003326	-2.16%	0.003974	+16.88%	0.1665	✗	0.23
2026-06-07	oos	0.002709	0.002685	-0.89%	0.003552	+31.12%	0.2719	✗	0.21
2026-06-06	oos	0.002536	0.002567	+1.24%	0.003566	+40.62%	0.3316	✓	-0.05
2026-06-05	oos	0.00276	0.002771	+0.40%	0.003336	+20.87%	0.1872	✓	-0.04
2026-06-04	oos	0.003442	0.003391	-1.50%	0.004303	+25.01%	0.2359	✗	-0.64
2026-06-03	oos	0.003874	0.003804	-1.81%	0.002921	-24.60%	0.2904	✓	-0.64
2026-06-02	oos	0.003912	0.003832	-2.04%	0.002752	-29.67%	0.3831	✓	-0.67
2026-06-01	oos	0.004258	0.00413	-3.01%	0.0034	-20.15%	0.3927	✓	-1.61
2026-05-31	oos	0.00464	0.004476	-3.53%	0.002709	-41.62%	0.8226	✓	-2.13
2026-05-30	oos	0.005079	0.004886	-3.80%	0.002536	-50.07%	1.0686	✓	-2.14
2026-05-29	oos	0.005568	0.005334	-4.21%	0.00276	-50.43%	1.0409	✓	-2.08
2026-05-28	oos	0.005328	0.005109	-4.11%	0.003442	-35.40%	0.6885	✓	-2.07
2026-05-27	oos	0.006092	0.005776	-5.18%	0.003874	-36.41%	0.7388	✓	-2.28
2026-05-26	oos	0.00445	0.0043	-3.38%	0.003912	-12.09%	0.2697	✓	-1.36
2026-05-25	oos	0.00509	0.004877	-4.18%	0.004258	-16.35%	0.2801	✓	-1.81
2026-05-24	oos	0.004153	0.004034	-2.86%	0.00464	+11.73%	0.1851	✗	1.00
2026-05-23	oos	0.00441	0.004271	-3.16%	0.005079	+15.17%	0.2116	✗	1.00
2026-05-22	oos	0.004059	0.003984	-1.84%	0.005568	+37.18%	0.3626	✗	1.00
2026-05-21	oos	0.003775	0.003687	-2.32%	0.005328	+41.14%	0.4215	✗	1.00
2026-05-20	oos	0.003886	0.003779	-2.76%	0.006092	+56.77%	0.5192	✗	1.00
2026-05-19	oos	0.004278	0.004151	-2.96%	0.00445	+4.02%	0.0818	✗	1.00
2026-05-18	oos	0.005165	0.005008	-3.04%	0.00509	-1.45%	0.0123	✓	1.00
2026-05-17	oos	0.005415	0.005256	-2.93%	0.004153	-23.31%	0.2300	✓	1.00
2026-05-16	oos	0.00561	0.005456	-2.74%	0.00441	-21.39%	0.1940	✓	1.00
2026-05-15	oos	0.005628	0.005487	-2.50%	0.004059	-27.88%	0.2547	✓	1.00
2026-05-14	oos	0.006103	0.00598	-2.02%	0.003775	-38.15%	0.4154	✓	1.00
2026-05-13	oos	0.005994	0.005843	-2.51%	0.003886	-35.17%	0.3848	✓	1.00
2026-05-12	oos	0.006296	0.006152	-2.29%	0.004278	-32.05%	0.3160	✓	1.00
2026-05-11	oos	0.005912	0.005803	-1.85%	0.005165	-12.64%	0.0561	✓	1.00
2026-05-10	oos	0.005016	0.004926	-1.80%	0.005415	+7.95%	0.1547	✗	1.00
2026-05-09	oos	0.006054	0.005932	-2.01%	0.00561	-7.33%	0.0237	✓	1.00
2026-05-08	oos	0.006363	0.006218	-2.28%	0.005628	-11.55%	0.0855	✓	1.00
2026-05-07	oos	0.008334	0.007978	-4.27%	0.006103	-26.77%	0.2812	✓	1.00
2026-05-06	oos	0.006596	0.006434	-2.45%	0.005994	-9.13%	0.0442	✓	1.00
2026-05-05	oos	0.004356	0.004264	-2.10%	0.006296	+44.54%	0.3948	✗	1.00
2026-05-04	oos	0.004281	0.004173	-2.52%	0.005912	+38.10%	0.3251	✗	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.