ASTEROID1

? · · gru_s9

token id: #794
symbol: ASTEROID1
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-04-25
predictions: 513

Track record at +30d

assessed

141

of 171 predictions shown

direction hit

76.6%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.4724

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0917

actual -0.3451

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.001374	0.001283	-6.65%	–	pending	–	–	1.58
2026-10-20	oos	0.001259	0.001181	-6.20%	–	pending	–	–	1.54
2026-10-19	oos	0.001263	0.001183	-6.35%	–	pending	–	–	1.57
2026-10-18	oos	0.001148	0.001082	-5.78%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-17	oos	0.001229	0.001153	-6.26%	–	pending	–	–	1.71
2026-10-16	oos	0.001277	0.001191	-6.68%	–	pending	–	–	1.71
2026-10-15	oos	0.001258	0.001175	-6.61%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-14	oos	0.001084	0.001027	-5.26%	–	pending	–	–	1.68
2026-10-13	oos	0.001144	0.001086	-5.04%	–	pending	–	–	1.65
2026-10-12	oos	0.001126	0.001072	-4.83%	–	pending	–	–	1.67
2026-10-11	oos	0.001367	0.001301	-4.81%	–	pending	–	–	1.60
2026-10-10	oos	0.001357	0.001288	-5.10%	–	pending	–	–	1.67
2026-10-09	oos	0.00123	0.00117	-4.88%	–	pending	–	–	1.68
2026-10-08	oos	0.001355	0.001284	-5.21%	–	pending	–	–	1.67
2026-10-07	oos	0.001445	0.001375	-4.91%	–	pending	–	–	1.65
2026-10-06	oos	0.001564	0.001502	-3.95%	–	pending	–	–	1.65
2026-10-05	oos	0.001631	0.001561	-4.33%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-04	oos	0.001638	0.001576	-3.75%	–	pending	–	–	1.77
2026-10-03	oos	0.001698	0.001601	-5.71%	–	pending	–	–	1.80
2026-10-02	oos	0.001759	0.001641	-6.70%	–	pending	–	–	1.79
2026-10-01	oos	0.001888	0.001741	-7.77%	–	pending	–	–	1.75
2026-09-30	oos	0.001874	0.001712	-8.65%	–	pending	–	–	1.81
2026-09-29	oos	0.001798	0.001653	-8.08%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-09-28	oos	0.001702	0.001576	-7.40%	–	pending	–	–	1.68
2026-09-27	oos	0.001905	0.001735	-8.93%	–	pending	–	–	1.77
2026-09-26	oos	0.001983	0.00179	-9.73%	–	pending	–	–	1.76
2026-09-25	oos	0.002018	0.001809	-10.35%	–	pending	–	–	1.78
2026-09-24	oos	0.002258	0.001976	-12.48%	–	pending	–	–	1.76
2026-09-23	oos	0.001934	0.001748	-9.64%	–	pending	–	–	1.78
2026-09-22	oos	0.002158	0.00192	-11.04%	–	pending	–	–	1.79
2026-09-21	oos	0.001744	0.001641	-5.92%	0.001374	-21.22%	0.0933	✓	1.83
2026-09-20	oos	0.0015	0.001422	-5.23%	0.001259	-16.10%	0.1610	✓	1.81
2026-09-19	oos	0.001787	0.001655	-7.39%	0.001263	-29.32%	0.2834	✓	1.78
2026-09-18	oos	0.001831	0.001698	-7.27%	0.001148	-37.27%	0.4162	✓	1.82
2026-09-17	oos	0.001605	0.001519	-5.33%	0.001229	-23.40%	0.3224	✓	1.73
2026-09-16	oos	0.001692	0.001605	-5.15%	0.001277	-24.56%	0.3442	✓	1.70
2026-09-15	oos	0.001676	0.001597	-4.68%	0.001258	-24.94%	0.3670	✓	1.54
2026-09-14	oos	0.001803	0.001718	-4.70%	0.001084	-39.89%	0.5237	✓	1.48
2026-09-13	oos	0.001903	0.001816	-4.57%	0.001144	-39.88%	0.5824	✓	1.52
2026-09-12	oos	0.001828	0.001749	-4.31%	0.001126	-38.38%	0.5282	✓	1.56
2026-09-11	oos	0.001956	0.001871	-4.32%	0.001367	-30.14%	0.4389	✓	1.55
2026-09-10	oos	0.002041	0.00195	-4.45%	0.001357	-33.50%	0.4886	✓	1.58
2026-09-09	oos	0.002186	0.002077	-4.97%	0.00123	-43.73%	0.6077	✓	1.58
2026-09-08	oos	0.00224	0.002118	-5.43%	0.001355	-39.52%	0.5241	✓	1.90
2026-09-07	oos	0.002308	0.002174	-5.81%	0.001445	-37.37%	0.5052	✓	1.88
2026-09-06	oos	0.002546	0.002388	-6.19%	0.001564	-38.57%	0.5471	✓	1.97
2026-09-05	oos	0.002485	0.002323	-6.51%	0.001631	-34.33%	0.4908	✓	1.92
2026-09-04	oos	0.003024	0.002824	-6.64%	0.001638	-45.86%	0.7023	✓	1.91
2026-09-03	oos	0.003109	0.002896	-6.85%	0.001698	-45.39%	0.6152	✓	1.94
2026-09-02	oos	0.002326	0.002158	-7.21%	0.001759	-24.38%	0.3680	✓	1.84
2026-09-01	oos	0.002382	0.002221	-6.77%	0.001888	-20.74%	0.3325	✓	1.85
2026-08-31	oos	0.002634	0.002474	-6.08%	0.001874	-28.85%	0.3846	✓	1.74
2026-08-30	oos	0.002947	0.002743	-6.91%	0.001798	-38.99%	0.5484	✓	1.70
2026-08-29	oos	0.002557	0.002401	-6.11%	0.001702	-33.44%	0.4572	✓	1.75
2026-08-28	oos	0.002101	0.001953	-7.05%	0.001905	-9.33%	0.1666	✓	1.74
2026-08-27	oos	0.002319	0.002177	-6.14%	0.001983	-14.49%	0.1786	✓	1.70
2026-08-26	oos	0.002166	0.002018	-6.85%	0.002018	-6.83%	0.1039	✓	1.68
2026-08-25	oos	0.001937	0.001756	-9.35%	0.002258	+16.57%	0.1300	✗	1.69
2026-08-24	oos	0.00227	0.002118	-6.70%	0.001934	-14.80%	0.1890	✓	1.49
2026-08-23	oos	0.00236	0.002201	-6.72%	0.002158	-8.54%	0.1801	✓	1.55
2026-08-22	oos	0.00264	0.002444	-7.43%	0.001744	-33.94%	0.5235	✓	1.59
2026-08-21	oos	0.002582	0.002392	-7.36%	0.0015	-41.91%	0.5239	✓	1.61
2026-08-20	oos	0.003052	0.002714	-11.06%	0.001787	-41.45%	0.6510	✓	2.18
2026-08-19	oos	0.002289	0.002091	-8.66%	0.001831	-20.01%	0.4102	✓	1.80
2026-08-18	oos	0.00195	0.001779	-8.78%	0.001605	-17.69%	0.3839	✓	1.69
2026-08-17	oos	0.001986	0.001805	-9.13%	0.001692	-14.80%	0.3400	✓	1.66
2026-08-16	oos	0.001873	0.001702	-9.11%	0.001676	-10.52%	0.3178	✓	1.64
2026-08-15	oos	0.001955	0.001769	-9.49%	0.001803	-7.80%	0.3348	✓	1.64
2026-08-14	oos	0.002087	0.001872	-10.30%	0.001903	-8.82%	0.3108	✓	1.65
2026-08-13	oos	0.00194	0.00175	-9.81%	0.001828	-5.77%	0.2830	✓	1.66
2026-08-12	oos	0.002211	0.001951	-11.76%	0.001956	-11.53%	0.3307	✓	1.69
2026-08-11	oos	0.002031	0.001807	-11.01%	0.002041	+0.47%	0.1916	✓	1.68
2026-08-10	oos	0.001751	0.001577	-9.95%	0.002186	+24.84%	0.0194	✓	1.71
2026-08-09	oos	0.001717	0.001534	-10.67%	0.00224	+30.43%	0.0576	✓	1.69
2026-08-08	oos	0.001589	0.001405	-11.56%	0.002308	+45.25%	0.1679	✗	1.66
2026-08-07	oos	0.001601	0.001411	-11.87%	0.002546	+59.03%	0.2680	✗	1.51
2026-08-06	oos	0.002119	0.001845	-12.94%	0.002485	+17.25%	0.0519	✓	1.61
2026-08-05	oos	0.001998	0.001739	-12.96%	0.003024	+51.38%	0.2227	✗	1.58
2026-08-04	oos	0.002382	0.001983	-16.76%	0.003109	+30.54%	0.0917	✓	1.51
2026-08-03	oos	0.001356	0.001189	-12.30%	0.002326	+71.53%	0.3924	✗	1.41
2026-08-02	oos	0.001354	0.001179	-12.93%	0.002382	+75.92%	0.4233	✗	1.41
2026-08-01	oos	0.001573	0.001389	-11.70%	0.002634	+67.45%	0.2924	✗	1.55
2026-07-31	oos	0.001676	0.001473	-12.10%	0.002947	+75.84%	0.3649	✗	1.55
2026-07-30	oos	0.001696	0.001478	-12.86%	0.002557	+50.77%	0.2685	✗	1.48
2026-07-29	oos	0.001747	0.001521	-12.96%	0.002101	+20.26%	0.0275	✓	1.50
2026-07-28	oos	0.001803	0.001567	-13.08%	0.002319	+28.62%	0.0589	✓	1.45
2026-07-27	oos	0.002076	0.001769	-14.81%	0.002166	+4.34%	0.1071	✓	1.44
2026-07-26	oos	0.002034	0.001733	-14.81%	0.001937	-4.77%	0.1622	✓	1.49
2026-07-25	oos	0.002304	0.001911	-17.07%	0.00227	-1.48%	0.1527	✓	1.58
2026-07-24	oos	0.002315	0.001889	-18.41%	0.00236	+1.94%	0.0471	✓	1.40
2026-07-23	oos	0.001482	0.001269	-14.39%	0.00264	+78.14%	0.4605	✗	1.61
2026-07-22	oos	0.00136	0.001171	-13.90%	0.002582	+89.85%	0.5072	✗	1.67
2026-07-21	oos	0.001551	0.001307	-15.76%	0.003052	+96.78%	0.6944	✗	1.65
2026-07-20	oos	0.001198	0.001041	-13.12%	0.002289	+91.07%	0.6988	✗	1.47
2026-07-19	oos	0.001223	0.00106	-13.37%	0.00195	+59.44%	0.6100	✗	1.47
2026-07-18	oos	0.001349	0.001155	-14.36%	0.001986	+47.22%	0.5490	✗	1.47
2026-07-17	oos	0.001424	0.001211	-14.98%	0.001873	+31.53%	0.4614	✗	1.51
2026-07-16	oos	0.001041	0.000926118	-11.04%	0.001955	+87.80%	0.7644	✗	1.46
2026-07-15	oos	0.001046	0.000929629	-11.13%	0.002087	+99.52%	0.8489	✗	1.47
2026-07-14	oos	0.001158	0.001019	-11.97%	0.00194	+67.53%	0.6792	✗	1.47
2026-07-13	oos	0.001046	0.000942226	-9.92%	0.002211	+111.38%	0.8281	✗	1.36
2026-07-12	oos	0.001205	0.00107	-11.23%	0.002031	+68.55%	0.6454	✗	1.29
2026-07-11	oos	0.001323	0.001169	-11.66%	0.001751	+32.35%	0.4014	✗	1.30
2026-07-10	oos	0.001144	0.001028	-10.18%	0.001717	+50.09%	0.4987	✗	1.32
2026-07-09	oos	0.001093	0.000992312	-9.21%	0.001589	+45.38%	0.4361	✗	1.28
2026-07-08	oos	0.001003	0.000905227	-9.75%	0.001601	+59.62%	0.5193	✗	1.22
2026-07-07	oos	0.001139	0.001039	-8.78%	0.002119	+86.04%	0.6953	✗	1.17
2026-07-06	oos	0.001392	0.001288	-7.46%	0.001998	+43.53%	0.4285	✗	1.12
2026-07-05	oos	0.001462	0.001355	-7.29%	0.002382	+62.93%	0.5555	✗	1.13
2026-07-04	oos	0.001537	0.001428	-7.06%	0.001356	-11.78%	0.0589	✓	1.15
2026-07-03	oos	0.001855	0.001743	-6.06%	0.001354	-27.01%	0.2716	✓	1.24
2026-07-02	oos	0.001555	0.001442	-7.27%	0.001573	+1.16%	0.0645	✓	1.09
2026-07-01	oos	0.001815	0.001721	-5.20%	0.001676	-7.66%	0.0864	✓	1.29
2026-06-30	oos	0.001818	0.001733	-4.66%	0.001696	-6.71%	0.1534	✓	1.31
2026-06-29	oos	0.002226	0.002138	-3.94%	0.001747	-21.52%	0.2712	✓	1.15
2026-06-28	oos	0.002274	0.002186	-3.85%	0.001803	-20.71%	0.2752	✓	1.16
2026-06-27	oos	0.002491	0.002404	-3.50%	0.002076	-16.66%	0.2166	✓	1.15
2026-06-26	oos	0.002527	0.002436	-3.62%	0.002034	-19.51%	0.2782	✓	1.15
2026-06-25	oos	0.002311	0.00218	-5.69%	0.002304	-0.30%	0.0265	✓	1.11
2026-06-24	oos	0.002585	0.002479	-4.09%	0.002315	-10.44%	0.1206	✓	1.05
2026-06-23	oos	0.002713	0.002603	-4.04%	0.001482	-45.37%	0.6028	✓	1.05
2026-06-22	oos	0.003108	0.002998	-3.53%	0.00136	-56.24%	0.8222	✓	0.96
2026-06-21	oos	0.003271	0.003155	-3.53%	0.001551	-52.58%	0.7607	✓	1.00
2026-06-20	oos	0.003663	0.003505	-4.32%	0.001198	-67.29%	1.0879	✓	0.95
2026-06-19	oos	0.003814	0.003634	-4.72%	0.001223	-67.93%	1.1074	✓	0.98
2026-06-18	oos	0.004509	0.004164	-7.64%	0.001349	-70.08%	1.1599	✓	1.09
2026-06-17	oos	0.003947	0.00373	-5.49%	0.001424	-63.92%	0.9520	✓	1.27
2026-06-16	oos	0.003759	0.003565	-5.16%	0.001041	-72.31%	1.1929	✓	1.34
2026-06-15	oos	0.003974	0.003725	-6.26%	0.001046	-73.68%	1.2385	✓	1.33
2026-06-14	oos	0.003552	0.003376	-4.94%	0.001158	-67.40%	1.0563	✓	1.25
2026-06-13	oos	0.003566	0.003389	-4.97%	0.001046	-70.67%	1.1320	✓	1.27
2026-06-12	oos	0.003336	0.003187	-4.46%	0.001205	-63.88%	0.9765	✓	1.21
2026-06-11	oos	0.004303	0.003943	-8.37%	0.001323	-69.25%	1.0962	✓	1.26
2026-06-10	oos	0.002921	0.002828	-3.17%	0.001144	-60.84%	0.9233	✓	0.43
2026-06-09	oos	0.002752	0.00267	-2.97%	0.001093	-60.28%	0.9031	✓	0.42
2026-06-08	oos	0.0034	0.00324	-4.70%	0.001003	-70.50%	1.1696	✓	0.23
2026-06-07	oos	0.002709	0.002599	-4.04%	0.001139	-57.95%	0.8252	✓	0.21
2026-06-06	oos	0.002536	0.002455	-3.20%	0.001392	-45.11%	0.5647	✓	-0.05
2026-06-05	oos	0.00276	0.00266	-3.64%	0.001462	-47.03%	0.5967	✓	-0.04
2026-06-04	oos	0.003442	0.003284	-4.60%	0.001537	-55.35%	0.7664	✓	-0.64
2026-06-03	oos	0.003874	0.003688	-4.79%	0.001855	-52.12%	0.7025	✓	-0.64
2026-06-02	oos	0.003912	0.003698	-5.46%	0.001555	-60.25%	0.9204	✓	-0.67
2026-06-01	oos	0.004258	0.003963	-6.93%	0.001815	-57.37%	1.0604	✓	-1.61
2026-05-31	oos	0.00464	0.00426	-8.19%	0.001818	-60.82%	1.3391	✓	-2.13
2026-05-30	oos	0.005079	0.004618	-9.08%	0.002226	-56.17%	1.1670	✓	-2.14
2026-05-29	oos	0.005568	0.004998	-10.24%	0.002274	-59.16%	1.2232	✓	-2.08
2026-05-28	oos	0.005328	0.00479	-10.10%	0.002491	-53.25%	1.0771	✓	-2.07
2026-05-27	oos	0.006092	0.005288	-13.20%	0.002527	-58.52%	1.2262	✓	-2.28
2026-05-26	oos	0.00445	0.004025	-9.54%	0.002311	-48.07%	0.8799	✓	-1.36
2026-05-25	oos	0.00509	0.00448	-11.98%	0.002585	-49.21%	0.9769	✓	-1.81
2026-05-24	oos	0.004153	0.003764	-9.37%	0.002713	-34.67%	0.1214	✓	1.00
2026-05-23	oos	0.00441	0.003986	-9.62%	0.003108	-29.52%	0.0677	✓	1.00
2026-05-22	oos	0.004059	0.003722	-8.31%	0.003271	-19.41%	0.0474	✓	1.00
2026-05-21	oos	0.003775	0.003451	-8.60%	0.003663	-2.97%	0.2483	✗	1.00
2026-05-20	oos	0.003886	0.003541	-8.89%	0.003814	-1.85%	0.2737	✗	1.00
2026-05-19	oos	0.004278	0.00389	-9.06%	0.004509	+5.40%	0.3472	✗	1.00
2026-05-18	oos	0.005165	0.004655	-9.87%	0.003947	-23.58%	0.0122	✓	1.00
2026-05-17	oos	0.005415	0.004846	-10.50%	0.003759	-30.58%	0.0888	✓	1.00
2026-05-16	oos	0.00561	0.00499	-11.06%	0.003974	-29.16%	0.0634	✓	1.00
2026-05-15	oos	0.005628	0.004997	-11.21%	0.003552	-36.89%	0.1563	✓	1.00
2026-05-14	oos	0.006103	0.005413	-11.31%	0.003566	-41.57%	0.1874	✓	1.00
2026-05-13	oos	0.005994	0.005267	-12.13%	0.003336	-44.34%	0.2352	✓	1.00
2026-05-12	oos	0.006296	0.005509	-12.50%	0.004303	-31.66%	0.0110	✓	1.00
2026-05-11	oos	0.005912	0.005285	-10.61%	0.002921	-50.59%	0.3077	✓	1.00
2026-05-10	oos	0.005016	0.004532	-9.66%	0.002752	-45.15%	0.2118	✓	1.00
2026-05-09	oos	0.006054	0.005365	-11.39%	0.0034	-43.84%	0.2100	✓	1.00
2026-05-08	oos	0.006363	0.005576	-12.37%	0.002709	-57.43%	0.4854	✓	1.00
2026-05-07	oos	0.008334	0.006824	-18.12%	0.002536	-69.57%	0.7162	✓	1.00
2026-05-06	oos	0.006596	0.005802	-12.04%	0.00276	-58.16%	0.4544	✓	1.00
2026-05-05	oos	0.004356	0.003885	-10.81%	0.003442	-20.98%	0.1164	✗	1.00
2026-05-04	oos	0.004281	0.003664	-14.42%	0.003874	-9.51%	0.2765	✗	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.