ASTEROID1

? · · gru_s9

token id: #794
symbol: ASTEROID1
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-04-25
predictions: 513

Track record at +1d

assessed

170

of 171 predictions shown

direction hit

61.8%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0994

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0059

actual -0.0113

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.001374	0.001365	-0.64%	–	pending	–	–	1.58
2026-10-20	oos	0.001259	0.001252	-0.52%	0.001374	+9.18%	0.0975	✗	1.54
2026-10-19	oos	0.001263	0.001257	-0.51%	0.001259	-0.36%	0.0194	✓	1.57
2026-10-18	oos	0.001148	0.001146	-0.19%	0.001263	+9.97%	0.1004	✗	1.70
2026-10-17	oos	0.001229	0.001226	-0.32%	0.001148	-6.59%	0.0780	✓	1.71
2026-10-16	oos	0.001277	0.001271	-0.42%	0.001229	-3.68%	0.0309	✓	1.71
2026-10-15	oos	0.001258	0.001253	-0.36%	0.001277	+1.47%	0.0312	✗	1.70
2026-10-14	oos	0.001084	0.001086	+0.27%	0.001258	+16.11%	0.1352	✓	1.68
2026-10-13	oos	0.001144	0.001145	+0.12%	0.001084	-5.29%	0.0247	✗	1.65
2026-10-12	oos	0.001126	0.00113	+0.29%	0.001144	+1.55%	0.0151	✗	1.67
2026-10-11	oos	0.001367	0.001363	-0.29%	0.001126	-17.56%	0.1527	✓	1.60
2026-10-10	oos	0.001357	0.001354	-0.21%	0.001367	+0.70%	0.0063	✓	1.67
2026-10-09	oos	0.00123	0.001231	+0.09%	0.001357	+10.33%	0.0899	✓	1.68
2026-10-08	oos	0.001355	0.001353	-0.09%	0.00123	-9.19%	0.1128	✓	1.67
2026-10-07	oos	0.001445	0.001442	-0.23%	0.001355	-6.30%	0.0310	✓	1.65
2026-10-06	oos	0.001564	0.00156	-0.25%	0.001445	-7.58%	0.0320	✓	1.65
2026-10-05	oos	0.001631	0.001627	-0.29%	0.001564	-4.14%	0.0352	✓	1.70
2026-10-04	oos	0.001638	0.001633	-0.26%	0.001631	-0.37%	0.0145	✗	1.77
2026-10-03	oos	0.001698	0.001691	-0.39%	0.001638	-3.56%	0.0695	✓	1.80
2026-10-02	oos	0.001759	0.00175	-0.48%	0.001698	-3.47%	0.0355	✓	1.79
2026-10-01	oos	0.001888	0.001876	-0.64%	0.001759	-6.83%	0.0572	✓	1.75
2026-09-30	oos	0.001874	0.001861	-0.71%	0.001888	+0.75%	0.0132	✓	1.81
2026-09-29	oos	0.001798	0.001788	-0.57%	0.001874	+4.23%	0.0488	✗	1.70
2026-09-28	oos	0.001702	0.001695	-0.42%	0.001798	+5.64%	0.0555	✗	1.68
2026-09-27	oos	0.001905	0.001891	-0.72%	0.001702	-10.66%	0.0842	✓	1.77
2026-09-26	oos	0.001983	0.001966	-0.84%	0.001905	-3.93%	0.0326	✓	1.76
2026-09-25	oos	0.002018	0.001998	-0.98%	0.001983	-1.73%	0.0145	✓	1.78
2026-09-24	oos	0.002258	0.002219	-1.72%	0.002018	-10.63%	0.0888	✓	1.76
2026-09-23	oos	0.001934	0.001915	-0.98%	0.002258	+16.75%	0.1646	✗	1.78
2026-09-22	oos	0.002158	0.00212	-1.77%	0.001934	-10.40%	0.0539	✓	1.79
2026-09-21	oos	0.001744	0.001732	-0.70%	0.002158	+23.77%	0.2286	✗	1.83
2026-09-20	oos	0.0015	0.001504	+0.24%	0.001744	+16.27%	0.0312	✓	1.81
2026-09-19	oos	0.001787	0.001784	-0.18%	0.0015	-16.06%	0.1716	✓	1.78
2026-09-18	oos	0.001831	0.001828	-0.15%	0.001787	-2.40%	0.0309	✓	1.82
2026-09-17	oos	0.001605	0.001613	+0.52%	0.001831	+14.08%	0.0268	✓	1.73
2026-09-16	oos	0.001692	0.0017	+0.46%	0.001605	-5.14%	0.0620	✗	1.70
2026-09-15	oos	0.001676	0.001685	+0.53%	0.001692	+0.95%	0.0072	✗	1.54
2026-09-14	oos	0.001803	0.001809	+0.38%	0.001676	-7.02%	0.0267	✗	1.48
2026-09-13	oos	0.001903	0.001909	+0.30%	0.001803	-5.28%	0.0843	✗	1.52
2026-09-12	oos	0.001828	0.001834	+0.35%	0.001903	+4.10%	0.0461	✓	1.56
2026-09-11	oos	0.001956	0.00196	+0.19%	0.001828	-6.54%	0.0707	✗	1.55
2026-09-10	oos	0.002041	0.002042	+0.07%	0.001956	-4.14%	0.0568	✗	1.58
2026-09-09	oos	0.002186	0.002184	-0.11%	0.002041	-6.66%	0.0322	✓	1.58
2026-09-08	oos	0.00224	0.002235	-0.20%	0.002186	-2.39%	0.0182	✓	1.90
2026-09-07	oos	0.002308	0.002301	-0.28%	0.00224	-2.97%	0.0119	✓	1.88
2026-09-06	oos	0.002546	0.002537	-0.36%	0.002308	-9.35%	0.0637	✓	1.97
2026-09-05	oos	0.002485	0.002475	-0.39%	0.002546	+2.48%	0.0162	✗	1.92
2026-09-04	oos	0.003024	0.003008	-0.53%	0.002485	-17.85%	0.1951	✓	1.91
2026-09-03	oos	0.003109	0.003088	-0.70%	0.003024	-2.73%	0.0176	✗	1.94
2026-09-02	oos	0.002326	0.002315	-0.47%	0.003109	+33.68%	0.2034	✗	1.84
2026-09-01	oos	0.002382	0.002372	-0.43%	0.002326	-2.35%	0.0173	✓	1.85
2026-08-31	oos	0.002634	0.002623	-0.41%	0.002382	-9.57%	0.0706	✓	1.74
2026-08-30	oos	0.002947	0.002923	-0.81%	0.002634	-10.62%	0.1237	✓	1.70
2026-08-29	oos	0.002557	0.002544	-0.51%	0.002947	+15.25%	0.1598	✗	1.75
2026-08-28	oos	0.002101	0.002091	-0.50%	0.002557	+21.70%	0.1926	✗	1.74
2026-08-27	oos	0.002319	0.002309	-0.44%	0.002101	-9.40%	0.0420	✓	1.70
2026-08-26	oos	0.002166	0.002155	-0.49%	0.002319	+7.06%	0.0469	✗	1.68
2026-08-25	oos	0.001937	0.001922	-0.80%	0.002166	+11.82%	0.1090	✗	1.69
2026-08-24	oos	0.00227	0.002259	-0.48%	0.001937	-14.67%	0.1452	✓	1.49
2026-08-23	oos	0.00236	0.002348	-0.52%	0.00227	-3.81%	0.0585	✓	1.55
2026-08-22	oos	0.00264	0.002619	-0.80%	0.00236	-10.61%	0.1180	✓	1.59
2026-08-21	oos	0.002582	0.002559	-0.89%	0.00264	+2.25%	0.0575	✗	1.61
2026-08-20	oos	0.003052	0.00299	-2.04%	0.002582	-15.40%	0.3000	✓	2.18
2026-08-19	oos	0.002289	0.002268	-0.92%	0.003052	+33.33%	0.2032	✗	1.80
2026-08-18	oos	0.00195	0.001938	-0.62%	0.002289	+17.38%	0.0496	✗	1.69
2026-08-17	oos	0.001986	0.001972	-0.68%	0.00195	-1.81%	0.0167	✓	1.66
2026-08-16	oos	0.001873	0.001862	-0.60%	0.001986	+6.03%	0.0224	✗	1.64
2026-08-15	oos	0.001955	0.001942	-0.69%	0.001873	-4.19%	0.0312	✓	1.64
2026-08-14	oos	0.002087	0.002068	-0.92%	0.001955	-6.32%	0.0573	✓	1.65
2026-08-13	oos	0.00194	0.001926	-0.74%	0.002087	+7.58%	0.0923	✗	1.66
2026-08-12	oos	0.002211	0.002181	-1.35%	0.00194	-12.26%	0.1175	✓	1.69
2026-08-11	oos	0.002031	0.002007	-1.17%	0.002211	+8.86%	0.0999	✗	1.68
2026-08-10	oos	0.001751	0.001738	-0.75%	0.002031	+15.99%	0.1660	✗	1.71
2026-08-09	oos	0.001717	0.001703	-0.81%	0.001751	+1.98%	0.0522	✗	1.69
2026-08-08	oos	0.001589	0.001576	-0.80%	0.001717	+8.06%	0.0870	✗	1.66
2026-08-07	oos	0.001601	0.001588	-0.82%	0.001589	-0.75%	0.0003	✓	1.51
2026-08-06	oos	0.002119	0.00209	-1.39%	0.001601	-24.45%	0.2819	✓	1.61
2026-08-05	oos	0.001998	0.001971	-1.36%	0.002119	+6.06%	0.0807	✗	1.58
2026-08-04	oos	0.002382	0.00231	-3.03%	0.001998	-16.12%	0.1580	✓	1.51
2026-08-03	oos	0.001356	0.001345	-0.80%	0.002382	+75.66%	0.5585	✗	1.41
2026-08-02	oos	0.001354	0.001343	-0.85%	0.001356	+0.15%	0.0107	✗	1.41
2026-08-01	oos	0.001573	0.00156	-0.80%	0.001354	-13.92%	0.1599	✓	1.55
2026-07-31	oos	0.001676	0.001661	-0.91%	0.001573	-6.15%	0.0528	✓	1.55
2026-07-30	oos	0.001696	0.001679	-1.00%	0.001676	-1.18%	0.0421	✗	1.48
2026-07-29	oos	0.001747	0.001728	-1.06%	0.001696	-2.92%	0.0382	✓	1.50
2026-07-28	oos	0.001803	0.001783	-1.10%	0.001747	-3.11%	0.0216	✓	1.45
2026-07-27	oos	0.002076	0.002041	-1.69%	0.001803	-13.15%	0.1274	✓	1.44
2026-07-26	oos	0.002034	0.002	-1.66%	0.002076	+2.06%	0.0752	✗	1.49
2026-07-25	oos	0.002304	0.002245	-2.56%	0.002034	-11.72%	0.1242	✓	1.58
2026-07-24	oos	0.002315	0.002235	-3.46%	0.002304	-0.48%	0.0259	✓	1.40
2026-07-23	oos	0.001482	0.001459	-1.54%	0.002315	+56.21%	0.4856	✗	1.61
2026-07-22	oos	0.00136	0.001342	-1.33%	0.001482	+8.97%	0.1256	✗	1.67
2026-07-21	oos	0.001551	0.001516	-2.25%	0.00136	-12.31%	0.0980	✓	1.65
2026-07-20	oos	0.001198	0.001186	-1.00%	0.001551	+29.47%	0.2392	✗	1.47
2026-07-19	oos	0.001223	0.001211	-1.01%	0.001198	-2.04%	0.0225	✓	1.47
2026-07-18	oos	0.001349	0.00133	-1.43%	0.001223	-9.34%	0.0810	✓	1.47
2026-07-17	oos	0.001424	0.001397	-1.89%	0.001349	-5.27%	0.0562	✓	1.51
2026-07-16	oos	0.001041	0.001037	-0.38%	0.001424	+36.79%	0.3143	✗	1.46
2026-07-15	oos	0.001046	0.001042	-0.42%	0.001041	-0.48%	0.0212	✗	1.47
2026-07-14	oos	0.001158	0.001149	-0.74%	0.001046	-9.67%	0.0881	✓	1.47
2026-07-13	oos	0.001046	0.001046	+0.00%	0.001158	+10.71%	0.0434	✓	1.36
2026-07-12	oos	0.001205	0.001199	-0.51%	0.001046	-13.20%	0.1061	✓	1.29
2026-07-11	oos	0.001323	0.001312	-0.83%	0.001205	-8.92%	0.0844	✓	1.30
2026-07-10	oos	0.001144	0.001141	-0.24%	0.001323	+15.65%	0.1551	✗	1.32
2026-07-09	oos	0.001093	0.001094	+0.09%	0.001144	+4.67%	0.0255	✓	1.28
2026-07-08	oos	0.001003	0.001004	+0.15%	0.001093	+8.97%	0.0662	✓	1.22
2026-07-07	oos	0.001139	0.001139	+0.00%	0.001003	-11.94%	0.1069	✗	1.17
2026-07-06	oos	0.001392	0.00139	-0.13%	0.001139	-18.18%	0.1873	✓	1.12
2026-07-05	oos	0.001462	0.00146	-0.12%	0.001392	-4.79%	0.0553	✓	1.13
2026-07-04	oos	0.001537	0.001535	-0.11%	0.001462	-4.88%	0.0580	✓	1.15
2026-07-03	oos	0.001855	0.00185	-0.25%	0.001537	-17.14%	0.1967	✓	1.24
2026-07-02	oos	0.001555	0.001555	-0.02%	0.001855	+19.29%	0.1584	✗	1.09
2026-07-01	oos	0.001815	0.001815	+0.01%	0.001555	-14.33%	0.1871	✗	1.29
2026-06-30	oos	0.001818	0.00182	+0.10%	0.001815	-0.17%	0.0344	✗	1.31
2026-06-29	oos	0.002226	0.002224	-0.07%	0.001818	-18.33%	0.1700	✓	1.15
2026-06-28	oos	0.002274	0.002273	-0.05%	0.002226	-2.11%	0.0342	✓	1.16
2026-06-27	oos	0.002491	0.002489	-0.07%	0.002274	-8.71%	0.0816	✓	1.15
2026-06-26	oos	0.002527	0.002525	-0.07%	0.002491	-1.42%	0.0123	✓	1.15
2026-06-25	oos	0.002311	0.002306	-0.23%	0.002527	+9.35%	0.0861	✗	1.11
2026-06-24	oos	0.002585	0.002582	-0.12%	0.002311	-10.60%	0.0885	✓	1.05
2026-06-23	oos	0.002713	0.002709	-0.13%	0.002585	-4.72%	0.0189	✓	1.05
2026-06-22	oos	0.003108	0.003105	-0.09%	0.002713	-12.71%	0.1151	✓	0.96
2026-06-21	oos	0.003271	0.003268	-0.09%	0.003108	-4.98%	0.0614	✓	1.00
2026-06-20	oos	0.003663	0.003655	-0.22%	0.003271	-10.70%	0.0963	✓	0.95
2026-06-19	oos	0.003814	0.003802	-0.31%	0.003663	-3.96%	0.0488	✓	0.98
2026-06-18	oos	0.004509	0.004463	-1.02%	0.003814	-15.41%	0.1674	✓	1.09
2026-06-17	oos	0.003947	0.003928	-0.47%	0.004509	+14.24%	0.1692	✗	1.27
2026-06-16	oos	0.003759	0.003744	-0.39%	0.003947	+5.00%	0.0768	✗	1.34
2026-06-15	oos	0.003974	0.003948	-0.66%	0.003759	-5.41%	0.0357	✓	1.33
2026-06-14	oos	0.003552	0.003541	-0.31%	0.003974	+11.88%	0.1046	✗	1.25
2026-06-13	oos	0.003566	0.003555	-0.31%	0.003552	-0.39%	0.0258	✓	1.27
2026-06-12	oos	0.003336	0.003329	-0.20%	0.003566	+6.89%	0.0518	✗	1.21
2026-06-11	oos	0.004303	0.004247	-1.29%	0.003336	-22.47%	0.2410	✓	1.26
2026-06-10	oos	0.002921	0.002925	+0.12%	0.004303	+47.31%	0.3717	✓	0.43
2026-06-09	oos	0.002752	0.002758	+0.23%	0.002921	+6.16%	0.0591	✓	0.42
2026-06-08	oos	0.0034	0.003397	-0.09%	0.002752	-19.07%	0.2057	✓	0.23
2026-06-07	oos	0.002709	0.002716	+0.26%	0.0034	+25.51%	0.2254	✓	0.21
2026-06-06	oos	0.002536	0.002547	+0.43%	0.002709	+6.82%	0.0637	✓	-0.05
2026-06-05	oos	0.00276	0.002769	+0.32%	0.002536	-8.12%	0.0880	✗	-0.04
2026-06-04	oos	0.003442	0.003445	+0.07%	0.00276	-19.81%	0.2502	✗	-0.64
2026-06-03	oos	0.003874	0.003875	+0.02%	0.003442	-11.15%	0.1208	✗	-0.64
2026-06-02	oos	0.003912	0.003911	-0.03%	0.003874	-0.97%	0.0363	✓	-0.67
2026-06-01	oos	0.004258	0.00425	-0.19%	0.003912	-8.13%	0.1916	✓	-1.61
2026-05-31	oos	0.00464	0.004623	-0.36%	0.004258	-8.23%	0.1488	✓	-2.13
2026-05-30	oos	0.005079	0.005052	-0.53%	0.00464	-8.64%	0.0908	✓	-2.14
2026-05-29	oos	0.005568	0.005522	-0.83%	0.005079	-8.78%	0.0721	✓	-2.08
2026-05-28	oos	0.005328	0.005287	-0.77%	0.005568	+4.50%	0.0477	✗	-2.07
2026-05-27	oos	0.006092	0.005983	-1.79%	0.005328	-12.54%	0.1407	✓	-2.28
2026-05-26	oos	0.00445	0.004429	-0.47%	0.006092	+36.90%	0.2914	✗	-1.36
2026-05-25	oos	0.00509	0.005027	-1.23%	0.00445	-12.57%	0.1556	✓	-1.81
2026-05-24	oos	0.004153	0.004141	-0.29%	0.00509	+22.56%	0.2028	✗	1.00
2026-05-23	oos	0.00441	0.00439	-0.44%	0.004153	-5.83%	0.0598	✓	1.00
2026-05-22	oos	0.004059	0.004057	-0.05%	0.00441	+8.65%	0.0676	✗	1.00
2026-05-21	oos	0.003775	0.003777	+0.06%	0.004059	+7.52%	0.0994	✓	1.00
2026-05-20	oos	0.003886	0.003883	-0.07%	0.003775	-2.86%	0.0292	✓	1.00
2026-05-19	oos	0.004278	0.004267	-0.27%	0.003886	-9.16%	0.1026	✓	1.00
2026-05-18	oos	0.005165	0.005137	-0.53%	0.004278	-17.17%	0.1808	✓	1.00
2026-05-17	oos	0.005415	0.005381	-0.64%	0.005165	-4.62%	0.0349	✓	1.00
2026-05-16	oos	0.00561	0.005569	-0.74%	0.005415	-3.48%	0.0190	✓	1.00
2026-05-15	oos	0.005628	0.005585	-0.77%	0.00561	-0.32%	0.0167	✗	1.00
2026-05-14	oos	0.006103	0.006043	-0.98%	0.005628	-7.78%	0.0460	✓	1.00
2026-05-13	oos	0.005994	0.005935	-0.99%	0.006103	+1.82%	0.0056	✓	1.00
2026-05-12	oos	0.006296	0.006216	-1.27%	0.005994	-4.80%	0.0214	✓	1.00
2026-05-11	oos	0.005912	0.00585	-1.04%	0.006296	+6.50%	0.0887	✗	1.00
2026-05-10	oos	0.005016	0.004981	-0.69%	0.005912	+17.86%	0.1771	✗	1.00
2026-05-09	oos	0.006054	0.005992	-1.02%	0.005016	-17.15%	0.1968	✓	1.00
2026-05-08	oos	0.006363	0.00628	-1.30%	0.006054	-4.86%	0.0425	✓	1.00
2026-05-07	oos	0.008334	0.008056	-3.34%	0.006363	-23.65%	0.2382	✓	1.00
2026-05-06	oos	0.006596	0.006436	-2.42%	0.008334	+26.35%	0.2761	✗	1.00
2026-05-05	oos	0.004356	0.004322	-0.77%	0.006596	+51.42%	0.4161	✗	1.00
2026-05-04	oos	0.004281	0.004231	-1.16%	0.004356	+1.75%	0.0159	✗	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.