SWM
Swarm · · gru_s8
- token id
- #257
- symbol
- SWM
- variant
- –
- chain
- address
- cohort
- datapoint (mid-window listing)
- first bar
- 2026-08-19
- predictions
- 168
Track record at +7d
assessed
49
of 56 predictions shown
direction hit
55.1%
alpha space; 50% is a coin flip
MAE (alpha)
0.2628
mean absolute log-return error
mean pred / actual
-0.0465
actual +0.0251
History
| as of | split | anchor px | pred px | pred Δ | actual px | actual Δ | alpha err | hit | β90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | oos | 0.090935 | 0.087264 | -4.04% | – | pending | – | – | -1.55 |
| 2026-10-21 | oos | 0.090825 | 0.087407 | -3.76% | – | pending | – | – | -1.55 |
| 2026-10-20 | oos | 0.091445 | 0.088087 | -3.67% | – | pending | – | – | -1.56 |
| 2026-10-19 | oos | 0.09194 | 0.088483 | -3.76% | – | pending | – | – | -1.57 |
| 2026-10-18 | oos | 0.093595 | 0.090153 | -3.68% | – | pending | – | – | -1.58 |
| 2026-10-17 | oos | 0.09361 | 0.090065 | -3.79% | – | pending | – | – | -1.58 |
| 2026-10-16 | oos | 0.09504 | 0.091231 | -4.01% | – | pending | – | – | -1.58 |
| 2026-10-15 | oos | 0.08869 | 0.085484 | -3.61% | 0.090935 | +2.53% | 0.1009 | ✗ | -1.55 |
| 2026-10-14 | oos | 0.089875 | 0.086653 | -3.59% | 0.090825 | +1.06% | 0.0932 | ✗ | -1.55 |
| 2026-10-13 | oos | 0.10361 | 0.098828 | -4.62% | 0.091445 | -11.74% | 0.0810 | ✓ | -1.69 |
| 2026-10-12 | oos | 0.100975 | 0.096572 | -4.36% | 0.09194 | -8.95% | 0.0471 | ✓ | -1.72 |
| 2026-10-11 | oos | 0.10023 | 0.095798 | -4.42% | 0.093595 | -6.62% | 0.0585 | ✓ | -1.75 |
| 2026-10-10 | oos | 0.100065 | 0.095651 | -4.41% | 0.09361 | -6.45% | 0.0542 | ✓ | -1.75 |
| 2026-10-09 | oos | 0.09889 | 0.094879 | -4.06% | 0.09504 | -3.89% | 0.0206 | ✓ | -1.75 |
| 2026-10-08 | oos | 0.099015 | 0.095226 | -3.83% | 0.08869 | -10.43% | 0.0618 | ✓ | -1.76 |
| 2026-10-07 | oos | 0.096365 | 0.092857 | -3.64% | 0.089875 | -6.73% | 0.0691 | ✓ | -1.76 |
| 2026-10-06 | oos | 0.098365 | 0.094434 | -4.00% | 0.10361 | +5.33% | 0.0398 | ✓ | -1.83 |
| 2026-10-05 | oos | 0.084465 | 0.0826 | -2.21% | 0.100975 | +19.55% | 0.1155 | ✗ | -1.78 |
| 2026-10-04 | oos | 0.092855 | 0.089937 | -3.14% | 0.10023 | +7.94% | 0.0471 | ✗ | -1.84 |
| 2026-10-03 | oos | 0.090795 | 0.08857 | -2.45% | 0.100065 | +10.21% | 0.0807 | ✗ | -1.89 |
| 2026-10-02 | oos | 0.09368 | 0.091185 | -2.66% | 0.09889 | +5.56% | 0.0367 | ✗ | -1.89 |
| 2026-10-01 | oos | 0.095145 | 0.092485 | -2.80% | 0.099015 | +4.07% | 0.0037 | ✓ | -1.90 |
| 2026-09-30 | oos | 0.10818 | 0.104335 | -3.55% | 0.096365 | -10.92% | 0.0857 | ✓ | -1.86 |
| 2026-09-29 | oos | 0.12674 | 0.120925 | -4.59% | 0.098365 | -22.39% | 0.1639 | ✓ | -1.89 |
| 2026-09-28 | oos | 0.123535 | 0.117946 | -4.52% | 0.084465 | -31.63% | 0.2827 | ✓ | -1.89 |
| 2026-09-27 | oos | 0.15819 | 0.148176 | -6.33% | 0.092855 | -41.30% | 0.4174 | ✓ | -2.09 |
| 2026-09-26 | oos | 0.127905 | 0.121438 | -5.06% | 0.090795 | -29.01% | 0.2829 | ✓ | -2.04 |
| 2026-09-25 | oos | 0.10542 | 0.101298 | -3.91% | 0.09368 | -11.14% | 0.0683 | ✓ | -2.03 |
| 2026-09-24 | oos | 0.10401 | 0.099956 | -3.90% | 0.095145 | -8.52% | 0.0382 | ✓ | -2.02 |
| 2026-09-23 | oos | 0.10388 | 0.099692 | -4.03% | 0.10818 | +4.14% | 0.0619 | ✗ | -2.02 |
| 2026-09-22 | oos | 0.094815 | 0.091016 | -4.01% | 0.12674 | +33.67% | 0.2725 | ✗ | -1.94 |
| 2026-09-21 | oos | 0.10284 | 0.09868 | -4.04% | 0.123535 | +20.12% | 0.1515 | ✗ | -1.98 |
| 2026-09-20 | oos | 0.11312 | 0.108302 | -4.26% | 0.15819 | +39.84% | 0.4640 | ✗ | -2.13 |
| 2026-09-19 | oos | 0.11891 | 0.113581 | -4.48% | 0.127905 | +7.56% | 0.2013 | ✗ | -2.15 |
| 2026-09-18 | oos | 0.1196 | 0.114158 | -4.55% | 0.10542 | -11.86% | 0.0041 | ✓ | -2.15 |
| 2026-09-17 | oos | 0.12931 | 0.123312 | -4.64% | 0.10401 | -19.57% | 0.2703 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-16 | oos | 0.14044 | 0.133162 | -5.18% | 0.10388 | -26.03% | 0.3510 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-15 | oos | 0.129815 | 0.123504 | -4.86% | 0.094815 | -26.96% | 0.3957 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-14 | oos | 0.15573 | 0.146938 | -5.65% | 0.10284 | -33.96% | 0.4591 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-13 | oos | 0.156615 | 0.147512 | -5.81% | 0.11312 | -27.77% | 0.3207 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-12 | oos | 0.18555 | 0.172509 | -7.03% | 0.11891 | -35.91% | 0.4222 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-11 | oos | 0.196105 | 0.180671 | -7.87% | 0.1196 | -39.01% | 0.4589 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-10 | oos | 0.18591 | 0.169901 | -8.61% | 0.12931 | -30.44% | 0.2705 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-09 | oos | 0.1367 | 0.128134 | -6.27% | 0.14044 | +2.74% | 0.1194 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-08 | oos | 0.13717 | 0.12795 | -6.72% | 0.129815 | -5.36% | 0.0517 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-07 | oos | 0.117485 | 0.109814 | -6.53% | 0.15573 | +32.55% | 0.3610 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-06 | oos | 0.102915 | 0.096834 | -5.91% | 0.156615 | +52.18% | 0.5258 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-05 | oos | 0.07698 | 0.07321 | -4.90% | 0.18555 | +141.04% | 0.9627 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-04 | oos | 0.07564 | 0.071943 | -4.89% | 0.196105 | +159.26% | 1.0342 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-03 | oos | 0.07329 | 0.069996 | -4.49% | 0.18591 | +153.66% | 1.0368 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-02 | oos | 0.07012 | 0.067286 | -4.04% | 0.1367 | +94.95% | 0.6963 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-01 | oos | 0.06978 | 0.067089 | -3.86% | 0.13717 | +96.57% | 0.7017 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-08-31 | oos | 0.06946 | 0.067012 | -3.52% | 0.117485 | +69.14% | 0.5547 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-08-30 | oos | 0.07144 | 0.068891 | -3.57% | 0.102915 | +44.06% | 0.3675 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-08-29 | oos | 0.07166 | 0.069285 | -3.31% | 0.07698 | +7.42% | 0.0851 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-08-28 | oos | 0.07463 | 0.07198 | -3.55% | 0.07564 | +1.35% | 0.0263 | ✓ | 1.00 |