SWM

Swarm · · gru_s8

token id: #257
symbol: SWM
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-19
predictions: 165

Track record at +1d

assessed

54

of 55 predictions shown

direction hit

48.1%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0747

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0095

actual +0.0042

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.09181	0.091115	-0.76%	–	pending	–	–	-1.57
2026-10-20	oos	0.091445	0.090741	-0.77%	0.09181	+0.40%	0.0071	✓	-1.56
2026-10-19	oos	0.09194	0.091216	-0.79%	0.091445	-0.54%	0.0235	✗	-1.57
2026-10-18	oos	0.093595	0.092858	-0.79%	0.09194	-1.77%	0.0132	✓	-1.58
2026-10-17	oos	0.09361	0.092863	-0.80%	0.093595	-0.02%	0.0199	✗	-1.58
2026-10-16	oos	0.09504	0.094244	-0.84%	0.09361	-1.50%	0.0091	✓	-1.58
2026-10-15	oos	0.08869	0.088072	-0.70%	0.09504	+7.16%	0.0643	✗	-1.55
2026-10-14	oos	0.089875	0.089275	-0.67%	0.08869	-1.32%	0.0040	✓	-1.55
2026-10-13	oos	0.10361	0.102605	-0.97%	0.089875	-13.26%	0.1640	✓	-1.69
2026-10-12	oos	0.100975	0.100082	-0.88%	0.10361	+2.61%	0.0631	✗	-1.72
2026-10-11	oos	0.10023	0.099329	-0.90%	0.100975	+0.74%	0.0245	✓	-1.75
2026-10-10	oos	0.100065	0.099161	-0.90%	0.10023	+0.16%	0.0269	✗	-1.75
2026-10-09	oos	0.09889	0.098101	-0.80%	0.100065	+1.19%	0.0276	✗	-1.75
2026-10-08	oos	0.099015	0.09828	-0.74%	0.09889	-0.13%	0.0245	✗	-1.76
2026-10-07	oos	0.096365	0.095696	-0.69%	0.099015	+2.75%	0.0004	✓	-1.76
2026-10-06	oos	0.098365	0.097568	-0.81%	0.096365	-2.03%	0.0616	✓	-1.83
2026-10-05	oos	0.084465	0.084173	-0.35%	0.098365	+16.46%	0.1514	✗	-1.78
2026-10-04	oos	0.092855	0.092315	-0.58%	0.084465	-9.04%	0.1051	✓	-1.84
2026-10-03	oos	0.090795	0.09043	-0.40%	0.092855	+2.27%	0.0655	✗	-1.89
2026-10-02	oos	0.09368	0.093254	-0.45%	0.090795	-3.08%	0.0214	✓	-1.89
2026-10-01	oos	0.095145	0.094701	-0.47%	0.09368	-1.54%	0.0185	✓	-1.90
2026-09-30	oos	0.10818	0.107481	-0.65%	0.095145	-12.05%	0.0934	✓	-1.86
2026-09-29	oos	0.12674	0.125535	-0.95%	0.10818	-14.64%	0.1507	✓	-1.89
2026-09-28	oos	0.123535	0.122404	-0.92%	0.12674	+2.59%	0.0389	✗	-1.89
2026-09-27	oos	0.15819	0.155646	-1.61%	0.123535	-21.91%	0.2561	✓	-2.09
2026-09-26	oos	0.127905	0.126424	-1.16%	0.15819	+23.68%	0.2253	✗	-2.04
2026-09-25	oos	0.10542	0.104619	-0.76%	0.127905	+21.33%	0.2088	✗	-2.03
2026-09-24	oos	0.10401	0.103237	-0.74%	0.10542	+1.36%	0.0139	✗	-2.02
2026-09-23	oos	0.10388	0.103091	-0.76%	0.10401	+0.13%	0.0091	✗	-2.02
2026-09-22	oos	0.094815	0.094159	-0.69%	0.10388	+9.56%	0.0568	✗	-1.94
2026-09-21	oos	0.10284	0.102093	-0.73%	0.094815	-7.80%	0.0831	✓	-1.98
2026-09-20	oos	0.11312	0.112275	-0.75%	0.10284	-9.09%	0.0506	✗	-2.13
2026-09-19	oos	0.11891	0.117942	-0.81%	0.11312	-4.87%	0.0437	✓	-2.15
2026-09-18	oos	0.1196	0.118629	-0.81%	0.11891	-0.58%	0.0119	✗	-2.15
2026-09-17	oos	0.12931	0.128247	-0.82%	0.1196	-7.51%	0.1274	✓	1.00
2026-09-16	oos	0.14044	0.13905	-0.99%	0.12931	-7.93%	0.0753	✓	1.00
2026-09-15	oos	0.129815	0.128722	-0.84%	0.14044	+8.18%	0.0797	✗	1.00
2026-09-14	oos	0.15573	0.15399	-1.12%	0.129815	-16.64%	0.1371	✓	1.00
2026-09-13	oos	0.156615	0.154837	-1.13%	0.15573	-0.57%	0.0120	✓	1.00
2026-09-12	oos	0.18555	0.182665	-1.56%	0.156615	-15.59%	0.1479	✓	1.00
2026-09-11	oos	0.196105	0.192396	-1.89%	0.18555	-5.38%	0.0369	✓	1.00
2026-09-10	oos	0.18591	0.181647	-2.29%	0.196105	+5.48%	0.0678	✗	1.00
2026-09-09	oos	0.1367	0.134663	-1.49%	0.18591	+36.00%	0.3451	✗	1.00
2026-09-08	oos	0.13717	0.134857	-1.69%	0.1367	-0.34%	0.0157	✓	1.00
2026-09-07	oos	0.117485	0.115482	-1.71%	0.13717	+16.76%	0.1803	✗	1.00
2026-09-06	oos	0.102915	0.101333	-1.54%	0.117485	+14.16%	0.1635	✗	1.00
2026-09-05	oos	0.07698	0.076099	-1.14%	0.102915	+33.69%	0.2955	✗	1.00
2026-09-04	oos	0.07564	0.074783	-1.13%	0.07698	+1.77%	0.0270	✗	1.00
2026-09-03	oos	0.07329	0.072526	-1.04%	0.07564	+3.21%	0.0618	✗	1.00
2026-09-02	oos	0.07012	0.06953	-0.84%	0.07329	+4.52%	0.0028	✓	1.00
2026-09-01	oos	0.06978	0.069209	-0.82%	0.07012	+0.49%	0.0143	✗	1.00
2026-08-31	oos	0.06946	0.068915	-0.78%	0.06978	+0.46%	0.0274	✗	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.07144	0.070844	-0.83%	0.06946	-2.77%	0.0312	✓	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.07166	0.071057	-0.84%	0.07144	-0.31%	0.0127	✗	1.00
2026-08-28	oos	0.07463	0.073839	-1.06%	0.07166	-3.98%	0.0350	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.