NIULAI

? · · gru_s8

token id: #227
symbol: NIULAI
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-19
predictions: 168

Track record at +1d

assessed

55

of 56 predictions shown

direction hit

56.4%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0911

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0085

actual +0.0001

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	0.06274	0.062175	-0.90%	–	pending	–	–	1.54
2026-10-21	oos	0.062305	0.061888	-0.67%	0.06274	+0.70%	0.0101	✗	1.54
2026-10-20	oos	0.0625	0.062171	-0.53%	0.062305	-0.31%	0.0180	✓	1.55
2026-10-19	oos	0.05795	0.057932	-0.03%	0.0625	+7.85%	0.0554	✗	1.53
2026-10-18	oos	0.058765	0.05879	+0.04%	0.05795	-1.39%	0.0112	✗	1.53
2026-10-17	oos	0.059455	0.059557	+0.17%	0.058765	-1.16%	0.0251	✗	1.53
2026-10-16	oos	0.065015	0.064957	-0.09%	0.059455	-8.55%	0.0863	✓	1.52
2026-10-15	oos	0.06738	0.067259	-0.18%	0.065015	-3.51%	0.0224	✓	1.51
2026-10-14	oos	0.06963	0.069499	-0.19%	0.06738	-3.23%	0.0413	✓	1.51
2026-10-13	oos	0.07463	0.074223	-0.55%	0.06963	-6.70%	0.0364	✓	1.48
2026-10-12	oos	0.07206	0.071943	-0.16%	0.07463	+3.57%	0.0124	✗	1.47
2026-10-11	oos	0.07927	0.078733	-0.68%	0.07206	-9.10%	0.0558	✓	1.40
2026-10-10	oos	0.080075	0.079587	-0.61%	0.07927	-1.01%	0.0170	✓	1.41
2026-10-09	oos	0.07419	0.074099	-0.12%	0.080075	+7.93%	0.0713	✗	1.41
2026-10-08	oos	0.0731	0.073171	+0.10%	0.07419	+1.49%	0.0008	✓	1.41
2026-10-07	oos	0.071685	0.0718	+0.16%	0.0731	+1.97%	0.0456	✓	1.44
2026-10-06	oos	0.079075	0.078776	-0.38%	0.071685	-9.35%	0.0579	✓	1.36
2026-10-05	oos	0.0768	0.076632	-0.22%	0.079075	+2.96%	0.0347	✗	1.36
2026-10-04	oos	0.08235	0.081991	-0.44%	0.0768	-6.74%	0.0537	✓	1.32
2026-10-03	oos	0.08011	0.079924	-0.23%	0.08235	+2.80%	0.0025	✗	1.33
2026-10-02	oos	0.08755	0.087162	-0.44%	0.08011	-8.50%	0.0881	✓	1.32
2026-10-01	oos	0.09927	0.098616	-0.66%	0.08755	-11.81%	0.1139	✓	1.27
2026-09-30	oos	0.104825	0.104066	-0.72%	0.09927	-5.30%	0.0674	✓	1.32
2026-09-29	oos	0.10513	0.10436	-0.73%	0.104825	-0.29%	0.0057	✓	1.31
2026-09-28	oos	0.115845	0.114795	-0.91%	0.10513	-9.25%	0.0908	✓	1.30
2026-09-27	oos	0.10403	0.103222	-0.78%	0.115845	+11.36%	0.1319	✗	1.38
2026-09-26	oos	0.10584	0.104966	-0.83%	0.10403	-1.71%	0.0097	✓	1.37
2026-09-25	oos	0.104305	0.103435	-0.83%	0.10584	+1.47%	0.0177	✗	1.37
2026-09-24	oos	0.10064	0.099827	-0.81%	0.104305	+3.64%	0.0487	✗	1.38
2026-09-23	oos	0.10741	0.106462	-0.88%	0.10064	-6.30%	0.0564	✓	1.36
2026-09-22	oos	0.112325	0.111265	-0.94%	0.10741	-4.38%	0.0073	✓	1.31
2026-09-21	oos	0.10777	0.10674	-0.96%	0.112325	+4.23%	0.0571	✗	1.32
2026-09-20	oos	0.10109	0.100133	-0.95%	0.10777	+6.61%	0.0216	✓	1.47
2026-09-19	oos	0.107915	0.106817	-1.02%	0.10109	-6.32%	0.0538	✓	1.44
2026-09-18	oos	0.11962	0.118191	-1.20%	0.107915	-9.79%	0.0973	✓	1.43
2026-09-17	oos	0.10627	0.10509	-1.11%	0.11962	+12.56%	0.0719	✗	1.00
2026-09-16	oos	0.10055	0.099484	-1.06%	0.10627	+5.69%	0.0633	✗	1.00
2026-09-15	oos	0.11971	0.118195	-1.27%	0.10055	-16.01%	0.1691	✓	1.00
2026-09-14	oos	0.12225	0.12063	-1.33%	0.11971	-2.08%	0.0260	✗	1.00
2026-09-13	oos	0.11709	0.115574	-1.29%	0.12225	+4.41%	0.0384	✗	1.00
2026-09-12	oos	0.134925	0.132774	-1.59%	0.11709	-13.22%	0.1197	✓	1.00
2026-09-11	oos	0.125765	0.123753	-1.60%	0.134925	+7.28%	0.0857	✗	1.00
2026-09-10	oos	0.12138	0.11879	-2.13%	0.125765	+3.61%	0.0483	✗	1.00
2026-09-09	oos	0.078585	0.077828	-0.96%	0.12138	+54.46%	0.4670	✗	1.00
2026-09-08	oos	0.102125	0.100606	-1.49%	0.078585	-23.05%	0.2449	✓	1.00
2026-09-07	oos	0.08165	0.0807	-1.16%	0.102125	+25.08%	0.2436	✗	1.00
2026-09-06	oos	0.09102	0.089861	-1.27%	0.08165	-10.29%	0.0802	✓	1.00
2026-09-05	oos	0.12056	0.118279	-1.89%	0.09102	-24.50%	0.2683	✓	1.00
2026-09-04	oos	0.08412	0.083113	-1.20%	0.12056	+43.32%	0.3700	✗	1.00
2026-09-03	oos	0.09631	0.09484	-1.53%	0.08412	-12.66%	0.1002	✓	1.00
2026-09-02	oos	0.07782	0.076904	-1.18%	0.09631	+23.76%	0.1751	✗	1.00
2026-09-01	oos	0.08336	0.082317	-1.25%	0.07782	-6.65%	0.0550	✓	1.00
2026-08-31	oos	0.10287	0.100808	-2.00%	0.08336	-18.97%	0.1751	✓	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.10148	0.097987	-3.44%	0.10287	+1.37%	0.0371	✗	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.05494	0.054836	-0.19%	0.10148	+84.71%	0.6228	✗	1.00
2026-08-28	oos	0.05606	0.055897	-0.29%	0.05494	-2.00%	0.0223	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.