MICRODUCK

microduck · Robinhood · gru_s8

token id: #784
symbol: MICRODUCK
variant: –
chain: Robinhood
address: 0xd5f1afea47b1a9eab414d2ee740cf1d6d039e725
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-29
predictions: 138

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +1d

assessed

of 46 predictions shown

direction hit

55.6%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.1550

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0153

actual -0.0405

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	0.003037	0.002926	-3.65%	–	pending	–	–	1.20
2026-10-21	oos	0.002985	0.002856	-4.34%	0.003037	+1.71%	0.0585	✗	1.20
2026-10-20	oos	0.0018	0.001767	-1.78%	0.002985	+65.91%	0.5133	✗	0.84
2026-10-19	oos	0.001942	0.001903	-2.03%	0.0018	-7.34%	0.0674	✓	0.88
2026-10-18	oos	0.001786	0.001758	-1.58%	0.001942	+8.73%	0.1015	✗	0.90
2026-10-17	oos	0.002094	0.002049	-2.16%	0.001786	-14.71%	0.1445	✓	0.95
2026-10-16	oos	0.002361	0.002298	-2.69%	0.002094	-11.33%	0.0916	✓	0.94
2026-10-15	oos	0.002423	0.002348	-3.10%	0.002361	-2.54%	0.0130	✓	0.95
2026-10-14	oos	0.002253	0.00219	-2.81%	0.002423	+7.55%	0.0950	✗	0.91
2026-10-13	oos	0.002043	0.001999	-2.16%	0.002253	+10.28%	0.1402	✗	1.10
2026-10-12	oos	0.002155	0.002105	-2.32%	0.002043	-5.18%	0.0482	✓	1.12
2026-10-11	oos	0.001829	0.001808	-1.16%	0.002155	+17.76%	0.2102	✗	1.50
2026-10-10	oos	0.001829	0.001812	-0.94%	0.001829	+0.03%	0.0039	✓	1.47
2026-10-09	oos	0.001849	0.001833	-0.83%	0.001829	-1.05%	0.0088	✓	1.47
2026-10-08	oos	0.002105	0.002079	-1.21%	0.001849	-12.19%	0.1335	✓	1.52
2026-10-07	oos	0.002412	0.002363	-2.04%	0.002105	-12.73%	0.0878	✓	1.45
2026-10-06	oos	0.00238	0.00233	-2.11%	0.002412	+1.34%	0.0793	✗	1.66
2026-10-05	oos	0.002877	0.002779	-3.39%	0.00238	-17.27%	0.1512	✓	1.62
2026-10-04	oos	0.002327	0.00229	-1.57%	0.002877	+23.66%	0.2444	✗	1.84
2026-10-03	oos	0.001718	0.001709	-0.50%	0.002327	+35.42%	0.2790	✗	1.42
2026-10-02	oos	0.001685	0.001674	-0.61%	0.001718	+1.99%	0.0218	✗	1.41
2026-10-01	oos	0.001688	0.001675	-0.77%	0.001685	-0.21%	0.0116	✗	1.45
2026-09-30	oos	0.00239	0.002396	+0.23%	0.001688	-29.37%	0.3767	✗	1.73
2026-09-29	oos	0.003095	0.003098	+0.11%	0.00239	-22.77%	0.2577	✗	1.69
2026-09-28	oos	0.003635	0.003624	-0.32%	0.003095	-14.88%	0.1616	✓	1.69
2026-09-27	oos	0.00367	0.003654	-0.43%	0.003635	-0.94%	0.0068	✗	1.00
2026-09-26	oos	0.004564	0.004489	-1.64%	0.00367	-19.59%	0.2021	✓	1.00
2026-09-25	oos	0.004941	0.004834	-2.17%	0.004564	-7.64%	0.0613	✓	1.00
2026-09-24	oos	0.004495	0.004432	-1.40%	0.004941	+9.93%	0.1123	✗	1.00
2026-09-23	oos	0.004587	0.004521	-1.45%	0.004495	-2.01%	0.0058	✓	1.00
2026-09-22	oos	0.004842	0.004744	-2.02%	0.004587	-5.27%	0.0124	✓	1.00
2026-09-21	oos	0.005348	0.005201	-2.75%	0.004842	-9.46%	0.0669	✓	1.00
2026-09-20	oos	0.004465	0.004423	-0.94%	0.005348	+19.78%	0.1251	✗	1.00
2026-09-19	oos	0.004269	0.00423	-0.91%	0.004465	+4.59%	0.0550	✗	1.00
2026-09-18	oos	0.005603	0.005535	-1.21%	0.004269	-23.81%	0.2642	✓	1.00
2026-09-17	oos	0.005509	0.005466	-0.78%	0.005603	+1.71%	0.0328	✓	1.00
2026-09-16	oos	0.004344	0.004293	-1.18%	0.005509	+26.82%	0.2468	✗	1.00
2026-09-15	oos	0.005922	0.005876	-0.78%	0.004344	-26.65%	0.3094	✓	1.00
2026-09-14	oos	0.008547	0.008426	-1.42%	0.005922	-30.71%	0.3189	✓	1.00
2026-09-13	oos	0.006287	0.00621	-1.22%	0.008547	+35.96%	0.3017	✗	1.00
2026-09-12	oos	0.008404	0.008302	-1.22%	0.006287	-25.20%	0.2720	✓	1.00
2026-09-11	oos	0.006361	0.006243	-1.87%	0.008404	+32.11%	0.2966	✗	1.00
2026-09-10	oos	0.008453	0.008322	-1.55%	0.006361	-24.74%	0.2774	✓	1.00
2026-09-09	oos	0.010485	0.010334	-1.44%	0.008453	-19.38%	0.1784	✓	1.00
2026-09-08	oos	0.017855	0.017685	-0.95%	0.010485	-41.28%	0.5207	✓	1.00
2026-09-07	oos	0.018005	0.017836	-0.94%	0.017855	-0.83%	0.0092	✓	1.00